Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 191648

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1048 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Issued at 1040 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Latest satellite imagery showing upper clouds moving in ahead of
the incoming trough. Made minor adjustments to the sky grids to
account for this. Still expect temperatures to reach into the
upper 70s to close to 80 on the plains with 10-11 C at 700 mb.
Winds will increase on the plains by the afternoon with gusting
to 25 possible.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

A weak southwest to southerly flow aloft will be over the region
today, ahead of a weak upper level disturbance located over the
Great Basin this morning. The flow aloft will start to increase
late this afternoon and tonight as the trough axis shifts eastward
across the state. Little in the way of qg ascent with this system,
with very limited moisture over the cwa. No precipitation anticipated,
just scattered to broken high clouds moving across the region.
700 mb temperatures around +10C this afternoon will result a high
temperature near 80 in Denver. The high will be well above the
average of 64 but fall short of the record of 86 for this date.
Across the northeast plains, south winds will increase this
afternoon with gusts up to 25 mph. As a result, the Fire Danger
will remain elevated but relative humidities in this area not
critical with minimum rh values of 20 to 25 percent.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

An increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough
moving across the Pacific Northwest will bring warm temperatures
Friday. A deepening lee side trough will result in windy
conditions, mainly over the higher terrain. The upper level trough
and a surface cold front will push through the Central Rockies
Friday night and Saturday morning. The mountains should see a
brief shot of snow Friday night/Saturday morning with this system.
Meanwhile, downslope winds are expected to keep the Front Range
and eastern plains dry. If any precipitation drifts east off the
higher terrain, it will be light. Windy conditions are expected to
develop behind the cold front late Friday night and Saturday.
High temperatures will be much cooler Saturday with readings in
the 50s over northeast Colorado.

Northwest flow aloft around an upper level ridge building over the
Desert Southwest will usher in warmer air for Sunday. Highs are
expected to be in the 60s over northeast Colorado.

For next week, the upper level ridge will intensify over the
western part of the country. This will put Colorado under a
northwest flow aloft. Short wave troughs embedded in the northwest
flow will bring shots of cooler air, but little to no
precipitation. The first wave looks to track across the area late
Monday, which will result in cooler temperatures for Tuesday. The
next wave may track across the region Thursday, though the GFS
does not show this feature at this time. Temperatures may end up
being on a roller coaster next week with above normal readings
Monday and Wednesday. Cooler, near normal temperatures would then
accompany the short waves. Precipitation chances will be very low
for next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with scattered to
broken ceiling at the upper levels. A lee side trough over the
urban corridor will bring a circulation with increasing variable
winds by the afternoon. Speeds will stay light from 3 to 8 kts.




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