Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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848
FXUS61 KBTV 241702
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1202 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperature trend continues through the next seven
days. A light precipitation event will impact the North Country
Sunday, with some light ice accumulation in the Saint Lawrence
Valley and Northern Adirondacks. Gusty southeast downslope winds
are also possible Sunday along the western slopes of the Greens.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1202 PM EST Saturday...Based on satellite trends it looks
like much of the area is going to see quite a bit of cloud
cover remaining over the area this afternoon. We have even had a
couple of reports of drizzle/snow pellets so have added the
chance of flurries or sprinkles to the forecast this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
Mostly cloudy skies across the area this morning. It`s still
lightly snowing at SLK, but should be ending soon. Temperatures
are already in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. Rest
of the forecast is unchanged. Previous discussion follows.

High pressure builds into the region from the North today, and
a mainly dry day is expected. Today will be mild once again with
temperatures climbing into the 40s across most of the area.
Despite high pressure ridging in, it will still be partly
cloudy. Skies will briefly clear tonight early in the overnight,
but then clouds move back into the area during the second half
of the overnight ahead of next system which will impact the
region on Sunday. Precipitation will push into the area early
Sunday morning, after about 06z from the Southwest as a warm
front lifts into the Northeast. Cold air at the surface will be
tough to scour out, and soundings continue to indicate a
transition from snow to mixed precipitation and then to rain
later Sunday. There will be about a 12 hr window from 06-18z
where there may be enough cold air and mixed precipitation for
some light ice accumulation, generally a tenth of an inch or
less in the Saint Lawrence valley and Northern Adirondacks.
Mainly snow across Vermont during this time period. After 18z
precipitation changes over to rain across the entire area before
ending by about 00z. The parent low will lift Northeastward
through the Great Lakes region. Increased pressure gradient on
Sunday between the low and departing high pressure advects in
warmer temperatures and deeper moisture on Southwesterly flow.
The increased pressure gradient supports some strong
southeasterly downslope winds along the Western slopes of the
Greens. The Northwest facing slopes of the Dacks will also have
gusty winds Sunday morning. Gusts in excess of 40 mph are
possible during the late morning and early afternoon. These
winds will likely have an effect on the precipitation type and
distribution, with downsloping areas warming and drying out
faster than other places. In addition, ongoing precipitation in
other areas will prevent some of the strongest winds from
reaching the surface. Precipitation and winds observed will be
highly variable. Rain will continue during the afternoon hours
and taper off Sunday night after a cold front pushes east
through the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 406 AM EST Saturday...Precipitation will wind down
Sunday evening as the occluded front exits to our east. There may be
a bit of rain or freezing rain east of the Greens early Sunday
night, but overall expect dry conditions through Monday with high
pressure building to our south. A weak secondary front will push
through the region Monday afternoon, but it will be a dry frontal
passage. Monday`s temperatures will be similar to Sunday, perhaps
even a few degrees warmer as we`ll see some sunshine by afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 406 AM EST Saturday...High pressure will remain
the dominant weather feature through Tuesday, leading to fair
weather. Things become a little less certain thereafter as the long
range models differ on a possible frontal passage for Tuesday night
into Wednesday, which would produce some light rain or snow showers.
The biggest discrepancies come later in the week, specifically
Thursday night through Friday. The GFS brings a 989mb low into the
southern Great Lakes later Thursday, then develops a 992mb secondary
low just off Long Island by Friday morning. The ECMWF meanwhile is
weaker and slower with the primary system, and develops the
secondary low much further south. With these differences, have
stayed close to a model blend for the end of the week in regards to
temperatures, PoPs, and weather type. Overall, expect temperatures
to remain above seasonal normal through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...MVFR conditions continues this morning at
MPV, and IFR at SLK. Snow showers continue at SLK, but should be
ending by about 14z. MVFR ceilings lift to VFR across the area
after 14Z Saturday with northwest winds becoming gusty at 10-20
kts.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Definite RA, Definite SN, Definite PL, Definite
FZRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     NYZ026-027-029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Neiles



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