Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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451
FXUS61 KBTV 160823
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
323 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough and surface low passing northwest of the region
will bring scattered snow showers to the North Country through
the rest of the morning with little accumulation. A brief ridge
of high pressure will bring a quiet end to the weekend on
Sunday, before the pattern becomes active again next week with
several chances for precipitation, especially on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM EST Saturday...Light snow continues this morning
as upper level trough and 987mb surface low continue to track
northwest of the region. A weak front is providing enough lift
to track a line of snow showers through into the Champlain
Valley but with limited moisture little or no accumulation is
anticipated in valley locations or across much of Vermont. The
excpetion is along the western slopes where there will be
enough combined synoptic and orographic lift to see slightly
more organized showers through mid morning which should lead to
a dusting to 2 inches or so. By mid morning the dry air will win
out and show activity should come to an end.

As we head into the evening hours a ridge will build into the
North Country and lead to cold temps again overnight with mostly
clear skies and light winds. Expect lows overnight again in the
single digits above and below zero. Sunday should be fairly
quiet as well as the ridge departs to our east under partly
cloudy skies and temps on the cooler side with highs generally n
the teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday...Increasing clouds and precipitation
chances expected for Sunday night and Monday as a warm front
crosses the region. Temperatures will moderate somewhat Sunday
night , but it will still be a chilly night, particularly in far
northern NY and VT. The bulk of the warm air arrives on Monday,
which will see highs ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s.
There`s not much moisture with this system, so snowfall will be
light; most areas will see around an inch at best.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday....The warming trend continues
through Tuesday as the North Country remains under broad southwest
flow. Precipitation will be likley through mid week, particularly
Tuesday into Tuesday night as a cold front and upper trough swing
across the region. Temperatures will be warm enough Tuesday
afternoon for snow to mix with and/or change over to rain. Colder
air spills into the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
frontal passage, turning any lingering rain showers back to snow.
Snow showers will continue over the favored areas as the region is
under northwest flow, but an influx of drier air will bring these to
an end by Thursday. Our next system approaches from the Great Lakes
later Thursday night into Friday. There are the usual model
differences on the details, but current indications are low pressure
will track up along the Saint Lawrence Valley sometime Friday or
Friday night. The associated warm advection precip will move into
the region Friday morning and continue through the day. At this time
temperatures look marginal, with perhaps a bit of rain mixing in
across the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Generally looking at VFR and MVFR
conditions with a brief period of IFR in snow showers. As a
trough of low pressure moves across the area a more persistent
MVFR ceilings will exist everywhere with possible IFR conditions
at KSLK/KMSS...especially between 06z and 12z due to snow
showers. After 12Z expect conditions to begin improving back
towards VFR across PBG and Vermont sites. At MSS/SLK there will
be some lower level RH which is anticipated to cause low MVFR to
possible IFR generally from 11z-18z but dry air will clear any
low ceilings by 18-21z. Winds will generally be light
south/southwest and turn west/northwest tomorrow afternoon at
5-10 knots with gusts to 15 knots between 18-00z at MPV and SLK.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: MVFR and IFR. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal/Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Deal



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