Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 200747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO ERODE
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AND AREAS
THAT WERE RELATIVELY CLEAR...WILL NOT STAY CLEAR FOR LONG AS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATL TRENDS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY BREAKING UP ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH
CLRING SLOWLY PUSHING INTO VT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV BETWEEN 06-10Z THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD STARTING TO APPROACH THE SLV THIS
MORNING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. HAVE PLACED VCSH AT MSS/MPV/SLK TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TWD
TUESDAY MORNING

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH MVFR
VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







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