Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 281751
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
151 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT THURSDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST AGAIN TO
INCREASE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS ALSO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND
ORANGE COUNTIES IN VERMONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR TRENDS. CURRENTLY SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THAT IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AHEAD OF ACTUAL COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL THAT SEVERE
RISK FOR TODAY IS MARGINAL...THOUGH HAVE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. CURRENTLY NOTING
SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN QUEBEC...BUT NONE CLOSER THAN THAT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE GONE A
BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY UNDER
FULL SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
ON SATURDAY. GFS MODEL CONTINUE TO BE FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WITH THIS COLD FRONT. THUS...SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
THIS TIME MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
REMAINS THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS LINE OF THINKING
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LINE OF SHOWERS
FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
ALIGNED IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL VERMONT. NEARLY ALL
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE GONE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZED
BEHIND THE FRONT SO THE DECENT SHEAR OVER CANADA WILL ALL BE WELL
NORTH OF ANY INSTABILITY.

AFTER THE LINGERING SHOWERS PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST REGION RESULTING IN
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FROST AS
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST DOESN`T INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF FROST BECAUSE TEMPS WILL
HOVER ABOVE 36 DEGREES ON MONDAY. FROM THERE WE WILL SEE THE
GRADUAL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER MPV AND RUT THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MPV/RUT WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTING. OTHERWISE...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON
AND BECOME LIGHT TOWARD SUNSET. PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MPV/SLK AND MAYBE RUTLAND... ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL FROM TODAY. SOIL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SATURATED ENOUGH
THAT WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK AND RUTLAND ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/TABER



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