Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 250551
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
151 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil early fall weather will persist through Monday, as a
large area of Canadian high pressure crosses the region. The crisp
air mass will bring patchy frost in spots this morning, and again
on Sunday morning, and cool daytime temperatures with Sunday`s
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Developing south winds will
allow for moderating temperatures on Monday, with high
temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s in most valley
locations. A frontal system approaching from the west will bring
our next rainfall event Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 134 AM EDT Sunday...Chilly start this morning with local
readings below freezing in the Adirondacks and the colder
sheltered valleys of Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom. Frost advisory
and freeze warning (Essex Co. VT) continue thru 12Z this morning.
Also anticipating some patchy dense fog in the favored river
valleys of central/ern VT...this should dissipate by 13-14Z,
lasting longest in the CT river valley.

Large Canadian high pressure shifts slowly ewd from sern Ontario
into the North Country today, and crests over the region tonight.
Looking for mostly clear skies with a dry air mass in place and
large-scale subsidence. Some cyclonic flow aloft could bring a few
passing clouds to far nern VT through the day, but overall will
see sunny conditions. The 925-850mb temps are slightly cooler than
Saturday, and as a result, anticipate aftn highs a few degrees
cooler as well...generally upr 50s to lower 60s. Winds won`t be
quite as strong as Saturday, but will see an increase to around
10 mph from the Northwest late morning thru afternoon.

With the high pressure system overhead, better radiative cooling
conditions for tonight. Expecting lows a few degrees colder...upr
30s Champlain Valley, but low-mid 30s elsewhere (and locally 27F
at SLK). This will bring additional frost away from the immediate
vicinity of Lake Champlain. Once we get through current frost
event early this morning, will likely need additional frost/freeze
highlights for Sunday night as well.

Surface anticyclone shifts east of New England during Monday, and
winds shift into the S-SE across the region. Should see temps
rebound a bit...with aftn highs in the mid-upr 60s...except locally
in the lower 60s across ern VT. Anticipate some increasing mid and
upper level clouds later in the day from west to east as a large
closed low crosses the central Great Lakes, and associated sfc
cold front reaches far wrn NY. Frontal rain showers should hold
off until Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 PM EDT Saturday...Ridge of high pressure at the surface
with building ridge aloft will lead to clear skies, light to calm
winds and good radiational cooling conditions. 925mb temps of 3-5C
will result in morning low temps at the surface in the mid/upper
20s to low 30s in the high terrain and low to upper 30s in the
broad valleys. Tricky part of where lowest temps will occur will
be somewhat dependent on fog formation. Expect some areas to see
freezing fog, mainly in portions of the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom. Otherwise, widespread frost/freeze possible.

Large closed mid-level low over the Great Lakes region will
approach, with clouds moving into the North Country ahead of it
during the day Monday. At the same time, 500mb ridge will crest
over the forecast area, keeping conditions dry before the large
mid-level low arrives. Winds will shift out of the south with max
temps in the 60s. Precip arrives from west to east Monday night
with PWATs increasing to over 1 inch and SSW low level jet of
30-40 kts at 850mb. This will likely result in enhancement of
showery activity on SW facing slopes and some shadowing on leeward
side. Also gusty winds esp in the high terrain will result.

Temperatures will be noticeably warmer Monday night with clouds
and winds...expect lows in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 324 PM EDT Saturday...On Tuesday the 500mb closed low
traverses across the central to southern Great Lakes as it digs
southward with a dry slot moving into the North Country ahead of
this low, behind the cold front which brings showers Monday night
into Tuesday. This will result in bulk of rain showers exiting
east during Tuesday afternoon. Low level jet will also exit east
and PWATs look to decrease late in the day. As the mid level low
digs southward into the Ohio River Valley Tuesday night into
Wednesday, 500mb vort will break off into northern stream and
southern stream. High pressure at the surface and bulk of energy
either far to the south or north, expect mostly dry conditions
Wednesday through Friday night, possibly into Saturday. ECMWF and
GFS differ on the evolution and track of the southern stream
energy. ECMWF has it become a closed low and meanders over the
southern Appalachians late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 06Z Monday...Mainly VFR/SKC, except local LIFR in fog at
SLK/MPV early this morning through 12-13Z. Winds will remain
light overnight, and pick up from the northwest around 10 knots
after 14z Sunday and persist thru the remainder of the daylight
hrs. Light and variable winds return after 00Z Monday.

Outlook 00z Monday through Thursday...

06z Mon - 00z Tue: Mainly VFR. Overnight IFR with patchy fog
possible.

00z Tue - 00z Wed: VFR trending to a mix of VFR/MVFR in scattered showers.

00z Wed - 00z Fri: Mainly VFR with isolated MVFR cigs.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ004.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ003-006>008-
     010>012-016>019.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Banacos


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