Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 281800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING
BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY MILDER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EDT TUESDAY...STILL SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE DECREASING.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH WITH PASSAGE OF
WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT NORTHEAST VERMONT. MILDEST READINGS
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SKIES
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING A RATHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECTING WEDNESDAY WILL
ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP...WITH LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MODELS
HINTING AT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...VERY ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
TIME PERIOD EXPECTED ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. LARGE SCALE PATTERN
SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER FLW ACRS THE CONUS...WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF SHARP/DEEP TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE ACRS
THE CENTRAL PLAIN.

ALL MODELS AGREE THE ATMOSPHERE WL BE PLENTY ENERGIZED WITH
STRONG JET DYNAMICS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF...BUT
DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MAGNITUDE/POSITION OF CLOSING 5H/7H
CIRCULATIONS AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER WITH 5H VORT AND CLOSING CIRCULATION OFF QUICKER ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET ACRS NC BY SATURDAY AFTN...WHILE A POORLY
DEFINED/ELONGATED SFC LOW PRES HANGS OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...AS
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY
INTERACTS AND PHASES WITH SYSTEM OVER NC...SFC LOW PRES RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS TO 983MB EAST OF CAPE COD BY 18Z SUNDAY...WITH A SHARP
WEST TO EAST MOISTURE/QPF/SNOWFALL PROGGED ACRS OUR CWA. GREATEST
IMPACTS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WOULD BE ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS...GIVEN TRACK OF THE SFC LOW PRES OVER
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS SOLUTION WHILE NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS (GFS/GEM)...DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE DATA...WHICH FEATURES A STRONGER/DEEPER SYSTEM WITH
GREATER IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA.

MEANWHILE...THE LATEST 00Z GFS/GEM SHOW DIGGING 5H VORT AND A
BRIEFLY CLOSED 5H CIRCULATION ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT 12Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS CIRCULATION WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST
AND REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE IN THE FLW ALOFT...WHILE SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE COAST. THIS FAST/PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD
PROVIDE OUR CWA WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.

GIVEN RECENT TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO BECOME MORE CUTOFF AND
CLOSED...FOR PREVAILING WESTERLY FLW...AND MODELS SHOWING A
DEVELOPING/AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WL TREND TWD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SUPPORTS CHC/LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROF INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY
ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A
SHARP PRECIP/ACCUMULATION GRADIENT EXPECTED. VERY LIMITED QPF/SNOW
WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE CPV IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIED...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
POSSIBLE.

PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -8 AND -10C...WHILE 925MB
TEMPS ARE <0C BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE FREEZING
LEVEL BTWN 200 AND 400 FEET...SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE VALLEYS AWAY
FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPS AND MARGINAL BL
PROFILES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION IN THE SLV/CPV. TEMPS
WL STRUGGLE IN THE 30S SAT/SUNDAY IN THE VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTH
WINDS. IF YOU HAVE PLANS IN THE MTNS THIS WEEKEND...PLAN FOR MID
WINTER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SAT
INTO SUNDAY. TOO EARLY FOR ACCUMULATIONS BUT I WOULD HAVE THE ROCK
SKIS ON STANDBY THIS WEEKEND...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR THE 1ST
TURNS OF THE SEASON ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MANSFIELD TO KILLINGTON. OTHERWISE...SYSTEM WL SLOWLY LIFT
OUT BY MONDAY...WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH A BAND OF FRONTAL SHOWERS
FROM 01Z-06Z IN NY AND 04-13Z IN VT LINGERING LONGEST AT KRUT AND
KMPV. NOT EXPECTING VSBY TO DROP MUCH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS WHILE
CIGS DROP TO 1500-2500 FT.

POST- FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH BASES RISING
FROM 2500 FT TO 3500-4000 FT BY 18Z WED. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND
VEER TO WESTERLY BY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED...MAINLY VFR CIGS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS. CLEARING P.M.
FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY SAT MORNING.
SAT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...SISSON



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