Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 032328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOKS TO
OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO CLOSE OUT THE DAY
AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL
FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH A LITTLE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SLOWLY EAST OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S WITH CUSTOMARY COOL SPOTS. SOME PATCHY BR/FG
AGAIN POSSIBLE, MOST FAVORED IN OUR EASTERN VERMONT HOLLOWS AND
RIVER BOTTOMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY
ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT
5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SISSON


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