Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
FXUS61 KBTV 241733
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
133 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016
High pressure will be the main influence on the North Country`s
weather through the weekend. Daily temperatures will be on a
warming trend, with highs near 90 in some valley locations by
Sunday. Sunny days and moonlit nights will give way to increasing
clouds at the start of the work week in advance of an approaching
cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will enter the forecast
early next week as the front moves through the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 133 PM EDT Friday...Other than a few shallow buildups over
the mountains...rather quiet day is expected with temperatures
reaching normal levels this afternoon...70s to around 80. Lower
dew points creating relative humidities in the 30 percent range so
looking like a real nice afternoon. The lower dew points will
allow for lows to get down into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Should see
fog return at Saranac Lake later tonight as well as the river
valleys east of the Green Mountains...but this will be burning off
shortly after sunrise.
On Saturday 500 mb ridging moves in with rising heights and noticeably
warmer temperatures. 850 mb temps around 14c and 925 mb temps 20-21c
support max surface temps in the mid to upper 80s. Warm, but seasonable.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...High pressure continues Saturday
evening as an upper level ridge builds into the North Country. The
increasing heights and warm air advection will continue the trend
of warming temps both in the evenings and during the day. 925mb
temps warm to 21-23C Sunday which is supportive of max temps in
the upper 80s across the North Country and low 90s in the Saint
Lawrence and Champlain valleys. With the ridge aloft and surface
high pressure we should see dry weather and a small chance of some
valley fog in in the protected river valleys mainly on Saturday
night as we drop below the crossover temps.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Guidance continues to point to two
fronts impinging on the North Country early in the week. The first
front Monday doesn`t have quite the dynamic forcing however temps
warming into the mid 80s with dew points in the low 60s is
generally a good bet on on some convection. Low level instability
is weak but there is some elevated instability and K index values
are supportive of thunder so I did increase the scope of thunder
in the forecast from slight chance to chance on Monday as the
first front rolls through.
Consensus of the guidance as that the better dynamics and forcing
will move through with the second front. Timing continues to point
to the second front entering the Saint Lawrence valley by mid day
and then stalling briefly. If this holds true, then there could be
the potential for some stronger storms on Tuesday afternoon across
northern New York. Forecast soundings from the GFS still point to
some small hail potential with low WBZ heights. However the cape
profile is tall and skinny which would mean slightly weaker
updrafts. All of this is still caveatted based on frontal timing
however. Following an active weather start to the work week, quieter
and more seasonable weather will return for the end of the week.
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Generally looking at VFR conditions through
much of the period. The only exception to this will be at KSLK and
KMPV between 06z and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR
to VLIFR conditions. Otherwise...little in the way of cloud cover
is expected other than some shallow cumulus buildups over the
mountains. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the
Outlook 18Z Saturday through Tuesday...
18Z Saturday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure. 18Z Monday
through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in showers and possible
thunderstorms along a cold front passage.