Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 192346
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF
SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 746 PM EDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED
ON LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A
WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WHERE IT TAKES THE LONGEST FOR THE CLOUDS TO REACH THERE.
OTHERWISE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY AS A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY AND LAMOILLE COUNTY WHERE THESE AREAS
TYPICALLY ARE ALSO IMPACTED BY THIS TYPE OF EVENT. LOCAL 4KM WRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 925-850MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS OF 50-60KTS AT 925MB
OVER THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN PEAKS FROM KILLINGTON TO JAY PEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS JUST BELOW 925MB SO WHILE NOT ALL
OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE STILL THINK WE`LL SEE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH AND LIKELY UP TOWARDS 50MPH.

OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDER AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEANDERING CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIP CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND EAST OF AREA FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH ECMWF
MAINTAINING A MORE COMPACT CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A SHARPER RIDGE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST.

BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PASSAGE, AND FROM THURSDAY ON MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT, 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -32C FRIDAY MORNING,
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EASILY DESTABILIZE AND KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE,
AND SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...NOT REALLY WILD SWINGS WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS
AFTER INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS LIMITED
BY COOL AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT SUNSHINE, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LIMITED BY SAME CLOUD COVER. HIGHS 40S/50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z OR SO. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN STEADY
LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AMONG ADDITIONAL AVIATION
CONSIDERATIONS INTO MONDAY.

EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL LOWER IN CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING,
WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING TO 10-14 KTS. I`VE ALSO SHOWN VCSH
BETWEEN 10-11Z, THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO SATURATE.

STEADIER RAIN FALLS MONDAY (STARTING IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD) ALONG
WITH INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. BASED ON PRESENT
VIS OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, I`VE SHOWN VIS IN RAIN IN
4-6 SM RANGE. RAIN TURNS MORE INTERMITTENT AT MSS AND SLK LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, AND I`VE SHOWN VCSH THERE HERE. CEILINGS TO TURN
MVFR IN RAIN. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS (HIGHEST AT RUT). I`VE HELD OFF ON LLWS AS SHEAR
DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS IS ABOVE 2 KFT AGL, THOUGH
LIKELY STILL TO BE A BUMPY CLIMB AND APPROACH.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH CIGS/VIS REMAINING MAINLY VFR BUT
SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
RUTLAND. LLWS POSSIBLE.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY
VFR CIGS/VIS WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY SOME
SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWER MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN SITES..KMPV/KSLK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LOCONTO/HANSON


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