Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 241353
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
953 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system just off the mid-Atlantic coast
will move northeast today and reach eastern Maine tonight. This
will bring clouds to the area along with the threat of showers
across Vermont and parts of the northern Adirondacks. Dry weather
is expected Wednesday morning...but then an upper level
disturbance will move across the area Wednesday afternoon and
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the North Country.
Above normal temperatures are expected today and Wednesday with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 953 AM EDT Tuesday...Minor updates to winds/pops based off
current radar/observational trends, otherwise current forecast on
track. Steadier area of showers pivoting across southern VT will
tend to morph into a broader area of scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms across our VT counties later this afternoon/early
evening. High temperatures appear right on track per latest
modelled 925 mb thermal progs. Have a great day.

Prior discussion from 653 AM EDT Tuesday...
Overall forecast in good shape with just some minor cloud tweaks.
Otherwise...we will see a gradual increase in clouds across most
of the area today as an upper level low pressure system off the
mid-Atlantic coast moves slowly northeast. There will be a sharp
gradient of precipitation with this system across our area because
of the track of the system. Looking at most of northern New York
remaining dry today with a chance of showers across Essex County
New York and most of Vermont. There could even be an isolated
thunderstorm...mainly over southern and eastern Vermont. High
temperatures today will be in the mid 70s east to lower 80s west.

Upper level low continues to move northeast tonight and reach
eastern Main by Wednesday morning. Still looking at some lingering
showers over eastern Vermont tonight...but eventual dry conditions
develop over the entire area later tonight through Wednesday
morning. Eventually a shortwave trough moves across eastern Canada
and the Northeast Wednesday afternoon. This will increase dynamic
support over the area and bring a cold front into the region late
Wednesday afternoon. Instability should also increase ahead of the
front with highs getting into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Dew points
will also be increasing...but feel model forecasts are doing their
usual overforecast of dew points which in turns creates more
instability. Feel CAPE values will be closer to 500 J/kg versus
the model forecasts of 1000 J/kg. This should be sufficient to
enhance the potential for convection and during this time of
maximum instability...deep layer shear is increasing. Neither the
instability or shear are strong...but enough to increase the
potential for thunderstorms and have included in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 435 AM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday night and Thursday will
mainly be dry with an upper level ridge building over the North
country. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than seasonal
normals with warmer air reaching the area under aforementioned
ridge. 850 temps warm from around 11 C up to 15 C by Thursday
afternoon. There may be a few lingering showers during the first
half of Wednesday night across our Eastern zones as surface trof
and upper level short wave that brought some showers to the area
Wednesday afternoon both lift northeastward and away from the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 435 AM EDT Tuesday...Thursday night through
Tuesday...extended portion of the forecast will generally feature
a surface front situated somewhere very close to our area or even
right across our area. Location of this front will play a big
roll in our temperatures and chances for showers or convection.
Pattern will be fairly active due to this feature and have
mentioned several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Friday
looks to be the warmest day of the period as stationary/warm front
lifts north across our forecast area. Think that we will see
upper 80s in the warmer larger valleys of our forecast area but
even found some model guidance that pushes 90. Saturday and
Sunday front will remain very close to our area and depending
which side of the front we end up on will determine how warm we
are. Unfortunately the forecast gets lower confidence the further
out we get with not a lot of model agreement and boundary causing
big bust potential. Due to warm temps will see some surface
instability...especially Friday...bring chance for some boomers
to the region. Also have chance for convection mentioned
Saturday...then a cooler pattern will begin heading into early
next week and chance for convection wanes as we finally end up on
cooler side of aforementioned surface front/boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR through the forecast period. Winds
variable less than 10 kts. After 15Z Tuesday, increasing moisture
from the east/south will bring sct/bkn VFR cigs in the 050-100 AGL
range with an increasing threat of a shower/isolated storm at
MPV/RUT terminals. Have included VCSH at this time for those two
terminals. Other locations feature just 1 line TAFs with light
winds and only some high clouds.

Outlook 12Z Wednesday through Saturday...

12z Wed - 00z Thu: VFR with chance of afternoon/early evening
showers and/or isolated thunderstorms each day. Activity generally
scattered in nature with long periods of VFR/dry weather. Brief
gusty winds and/or MVFR visibilities possible with any heavier
activity.
Thu: VFR under high pressure.
Thu night-Fri: VFR/Chance MVFR in SHRA/TSRA with a warm front.
Sat: Mainly VFR. SCT pm SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles



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