Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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181
FXUS61 KBTV 240229
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1029 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will continue to dominate regional weather
conditions through early next week with mainly clear skies and
very warm, near record-setting temperatures. Sensible conditions
change by the middle to later portions of next week as a
Canadian cold front brings cooler weather along with a chance of
showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1027 PM EDT Saturday...No significant changes to current
forecast. Based on 4sm and few 200 feet at SLK and 100% rh have
started patchy fog a couple hours earlier in grids/forecast. All
other elements are well covered based on current conditions.

More of the same tonight into Sunday night as deep layer
ridging amplifies across the region, post- tropical cyclone Jose
slowly dissipates south of Nantucket and major hurricane Maria
drifts slowly north off the southeastern seaboard. No impacts
from these tropical systems are expected. As the high bridges
overhead an even warmer and more humid airmass will advect in
from the west and south, setting the stage for record-setting
high temperatures on Sunday. Leaned close to a bias-corrected
MOS solution in regard to temperatures which offers an expected
larger than normal diurnal range through the period. Lows
tonight and Sunday night mainly in the 50s to lower 60s, then
solid 80s to locally near 90 in favored warm spots on Sunday.
See climate data below for specific records for today through
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...Little change to the weather is
expected for Monday and Monday night with the upper ridge
remaining in place over the area. Dew points will be on the high
side so the summertime weather will continue. Above normal
highs mainly in the upper 70s and 80s with lows mainly in the
50s and 60s are expected. The higher dew points on Monday will
push heat index values into the lower 90s across the larger
valleys (Saint Lawrence and Champlain).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...Forecast remains on track with a
general flattening of the upper ridge through Wednesday. Warm
temperatures aloft will continue to result in temperatures about
20 degrees above normal on Tuesday and about 15 degrees above
normal on Wednesday. The flow aloft becomes more west to
southwest by Wednesday with models showing mid level short waves
carving out a trough which moves across the region the latter
half of the week. This will result in an increased potential for
showers and possibly a thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon into
the evening. With upper level support will hold on to slight/low
chance pops through Saturday. The attendant cold front will
usher in much cooler and more seasonal temperatures for the end
of the work week. Readings may even be below normal by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period with mostly clear skies. The possible
exception might be some overnight fog and IFR/LIFR conditions at
KMPV/KSLK from 07-12Z Sunday. Confidence only moderate given
recent dry weather and dry soil conditions. Light winds less
than 10 knots are expected through the period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy FG.
Monday: VFR. Patchy FG.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23
to Tue Sep 26

Day    Burlington     Massena      Montpelier
9/23   87 / 1895      84 / 1964    83 / 1965
9/24   84 / 1961      87 / 2010    83 / 1961
9/25   85 / 1891      90 / 2007    85 / 2007
9/26   84 / 1934      82 / 1970    83 / 2007

For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching
specific temperature thresholds

90F or higher:  9/16/1939
88F or higher:  9/22/1965
87F or higher:  9/23/1895
86F or higher:  9/23/1895 (was 87F that day)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber
SHORT TERM...NRR
LONG TERM...Evenson/NRR
AVIATION...JMG/SLW
CLIMATE...BTV



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