Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 160454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1254 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1254 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT
EXISTS OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. THE SNOW IS MOVING EAST AND WILL BE
COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT NOT UNTIL ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FALLS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL
AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. QUITE
CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY. THEN
CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS BY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF VERMONT
THIS EVENING. WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH CHANGEOVER
EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV BY 02Z. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN
BECOMING VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW
LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...RJS/NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.