Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 191752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1239 PM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY EWD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLEARING IS GRADUALLY
WORKING SOUTHWARD FROM SRN QUEBEC/MONTREAL AREA...BUT THE NORTH
COUNTRY GENERALLY REMAINS OVERCAST AT 1745Z. FROUDE NUMBER VALUES
ARE QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING BLOCKED FLOW. TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH
PREVAILING INVERSION LAYER WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN STRATUS MOST
SECTIONS...BUT WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY GOES
ON. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS



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