Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 020039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
839 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 835 PM EDT SATURDAY...700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
FROM SERN ONTARIO/WRN NY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT. CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
NY...WITH REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL (HAIL
REPORT FROM MADRID NY). ALSO ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
FRANKLIN/LAMOILLE COUNTIES IN NWRN VT MOVING SLOWLY EWD. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
06Z...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG


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