Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 051804
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
104 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening warm front lifts across the North Country today
with widespread light snowfall through midday. The snow is
expected to result in some travel slowdowns during the morning
commute. Weather will remain active as we move through the work
week with several additional systems bringing renewed chances of
light rain and snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1237 PM EST Monday...Current radar still showing scattered
snow showers across northern ny into central/northern vt this
afternoon. This precip is associated with a weak deformation
zone and leftover moisture across our northern area...and should
continue to produce periods of on and off snow showers...mainly
over the higher terrain. Given current radar trends and
available moisture would not be surprised to hear about an inch
or two...especially northern dacks and northern/central
greens...including parts of the northeast kingdom. Storm total
snowfall amounts will range from 2 to 4 inches with isolated
amounts of 5 or 6 inches possible. Have continued to increase
snow grids slightly to capture latest trends...especially
northern zones. Otherwise...still anticipating precip to becomes
more terrain driven by this evening as weak front helps to shift
winds to the northwest. Overall flow is weak and additional lift
is minor...so not anticipating much additional accumulation.
Areas of flurries/freezing drizzle possible as we lose moisture
in the favorable snow growth region by 03z tonight...especially
in the terrain. Temps will stay mainly 20s mountains to l/m 30s
valleys for highs this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 430 AM EST Monday...A ridge of high pressure will be over
the north country on Tuesday. However, this will be a "dirty
high", as plenty of low level moisture will be over the region
on Tuesday, with mostly cloudy skies expected. On Tuesday night,
an upper shortwave will approach the region from the southwest.
Models in good agreement showing that precipitation will not
arrive into the region until after midnight Tuesday night.
Expecting some light snow to develop, along with some pockets of
light rain. Have gone with likely pops for late Tuesday night
and early Wednesday morning. Precipitation will wind down late
Wednesday morning, and have lowered pops for Wednesday afternoon
to slight or low chance pops.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 430 AM EST Monday...Wednesday night expecting mostly
cloudy skies across the region, with just some slight chance
pops for snow showers over a portions of the Adirondacks. A cold
front will move through the region late Wednesday night and
early Thursday. The north country will be under cold advection
from Thursday through Friday night. This will result in snow
showers across the region from Thursday through Friday night.
Have raised superblend pops to likely for Thursday and Friday
over the Adirondacks and the western slopes of the Green
Mountains, as gusty northwest winds will generate upslope snow
showers over the Adirondacks and the western slopes of the Green
Mountains.

On Saturday, models show a ridge of high pressure will be over
the region Saturday and Saturday night, with fair and dry
weather expected. GFS and ECMWF models show a warm front
approaching the region from the Great Lakes and Ohio valley on
Sunday, so have gone a bit higher than superblend pops for snow
showers on Sunday, with over running warm air advection aloft
moving into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Current aviation obs show a mix of vfr to
lifr across our taf sites this afternoon. Occasional snow
showers will continue across northern NY into northern VT this
afternoon with intervals of ifr expected at slk/mss/mpv.
Otherwise...thinking southwest downslope winds at pbg/btv will
result in a mix of mvfr/vfr through the rest of today.
Meanwhile...this evening a weak front shifts our winds to the
northwest and the flow becomes blocked with developing low level
moisture. This will lower cigs after 03z to ifr levels at
btv/slk/mpv with periods of ifr possible at rut/mss. In
addition...this moisture may produce areas of freezing drizzle
or light snow flurries...especially slk/mpv with a light glaze
possible after 06z. Difficult to determine areal coverage and
potential impacts of freezing drizzle. Anticipating mvfr to ifr
vis in the mountain taf sites (mpv/slk) with mainly mvfr vis at
btv/rut/mss. Conditions will slowly improve from ifr to mvfr to
vfr across our taf sites by 18z tues with surface high pres
directly overhead.

Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
Vfr with some lingering mvfr cigs at slk/mpv on Tuesday...before
another warm front produces another round of widespread light
snow across our region on Weds. Similar to Monday`s event
thinking a period of ifr/lifr likely between 12z-18z Weds across
our taf sites with vis below 2sm and cigs between 500 feet and
2000 feet. An arctic boundary will produce more scattered snow
showers and potential snow squalls on Thursday into Friday with
brief periods of ifr conditions possible. Improving conditions
with mvfr valleys and ifr/mvfr in scattered snow showers persist
on Saturday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Taber



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