Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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203
FXUS61 KBTV 301940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS
STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY SKC TODAY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 5000-8000
FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WILL SEE
CEILINGS LOWER FURTHER AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR
TAF SITES. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT LIGHT AND CEILINGS REMAIN
VFR. AFTER 18Z WILL SEE CONDITIONS WORSEN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES



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