Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT TUESDAY...ADDED A LITTLE PATCHY -DZ ACROSS THE
DACKS AND FAR NRN GREENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PER
CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE JUST SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS/SKY THROUGH
SUNSET TO ACCT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS SOUTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AS CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
MILDEST SOUTH (L-M 60S)...COOLER NORTH (MAINLY 50S) UNDER THE
THICKER CLOUDS. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY RIGHT ABOUT 60. ENJOY THE REST OF
YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW
YORK AND VERMONT SO FAR TODAY. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR,
WITH EVEN SLK SOCKED IN WITH IFR WITH SOME DRIZZLE FALLING FROM
THOSE LOW CLOUDS. AS TYPICAL IN EARLY FALL, THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE
SLOW TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. STILL FEEL THAT WILL HAPPEN NEAR
SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE), LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT. WITH ANY FORECAST, THERE ARE ALWAYS EXCEPTIONS.
IN THIS CASE, TYPICAL LATE NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND POCKETS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE SLK AND MPV TO
TANK DOWN TO LIFR SOMETIME AFTER 06Z. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS MSS
AND PBG MAY ALSO SEE A TOUCH OF FOG. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN A
TEMPO FOR MSS AS THEIR WINDS GO CALM EARLY THIS EVENING. COULD
ALSO BE SOME FOG OVER THE RIVER ADJACENT TO BTV, BUT HOPEFULLY
THAT WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE AIRFIELD, THUS NO MENTION IN THE TAF.
AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT WILL BE VFR
EVERYWHERE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

VFR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.