Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 160801
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
401 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected across the North Country today and
continuing into Thursday as high pressure builds moves down from
Canada. Cooler temperatures will exist today with highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s...but temperatures quickly return to
seasonal normals both Thursday and Friday. A low pressure system
approaching the area on Friday will spread showers and a few
thunderstorms back into the region...especially Friday
afternoon and night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 401 AM EDT Wednesday...Cold front has been slow to move
into the area early this morning. Front is roughly just east of
a Montreal to Potsdam line. A swath of clouds is also associated
with the front and this has helped to limit the fog potential
in this area. However...further to the east where low level
moisture existed from yesterday`s rain and clear skies/light
winds were in place there has been areas of fog. Locally dense
fog has also been observed. This will likely remain in place
through about 800 am before mixing takes place and front begins
to make a better push eastward across the region. Drier air is
lagging a bit behind the front so the best chances for sunshine
will be this afternoon. Cold air advection will keep highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area.

High pressure builds into the region tonight and we should see
clear skies and light winds for all areas. Any fog potential
will likely be confined to the favored locations as drier air
may win out overall. Should be the coldest night of the week
with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s...but in the upper 30s at
Saranac Lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 401 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure remains over the
area on Thursday and this day has the makings of the best day of
the week. Should see plenty of sunshine...light winds...and
temperatures rebounding back into the 70s with a few 80 degree
readings in the larger valleys. Area remains in northwest flow
aloft Thursday night with ridge axis remaining to the west. This
should cause a delay to the precipitation that is associated
with an upstream trough of low pressure over the Upper Midwest.
Will therefore keep Thursday night dry and its not until Friday
afternoon for the upper ridge axis to move east of the area. Its
at this time that southwest flow aloft develops and spreads
moisture into the region. Have slowly increased precipitation
chances Friday morning and then bring better chances into the
region Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday will once again be in
the 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 401 AM EDT Wednesday...Guidance continues the trend of
consistency between models of the last few days after being
worlds apart. The other consistency is the slower progression of
the northern plains system eastward as much of the energy is
rotating NNE across northern Great Lakes and Ontario but
eventually pushes east into and through FA.

By this forecast period (Friday night) the occluded front is pushing
into the CWA with the best lift/moisture moving across VT. By 12z
Sat the front is east of region but upper level trof is still back
across Great Lakes with several spokes of energy still to rotate
across the region. Timing and daytime heating/instability means
another threat of SHRA/TSRA Sat aftn/eve with the final upper level
trof passage during Sunday morning. There still may be enough
moisture and instability for some orographic showers Sunday.

Ridging at all levels approaches Sunday night and then slides
southeast by late Monday-Monday night. A rather nice late summer day
with highs above seasonable ...in the lower 80s.

Another trof digging into the Northern Mississippi River Valley
and Great Lakes (sound familiar) drops in on Tuesday with SW
flow at all levels behind the ridge and ahead of this system.
This shortwave/cold front appears more vigorous and its just a
matter of timing. Very Slight timing differences with Tue
ngt/Wed AM time frame. Moderate instability expected with temps
in L-M80s and 60s dewpoints and heights will be falling thus a
chance of thunderstorms late (esp in NY). Decent gradient looks
like enough shear that possibly strong to severe depending on
timing.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...A wide range of categories is expected
across the area through about 12z as low level moisture will
produce low clouds and fog at KSLK...KPBG...KBTV...and KMPV.
At these sites there will be periods of IFR to VLIFR conditions
while KMSS and KRUT remain VFR through 12z. A cold front is
moving down from Canada and should move across the area between
08z and 13z. Once this does the winds will turn to the northwest
and drier air will start to move in...which will allow for any
low clouds and fog to dissipate. Thus all sites after 13z will
be in the VFR category through the remainder of the period.
Winds will pick up later this morning from the northwest with
gusts in the 10 to 15 knot range before tapering off around
sunset.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Evenson


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