Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 252047
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
447 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet but warmer weather is expected through the end of the week.
There will be a few chances for some light rain showers, but no
significant weather is expected at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 415 PM EDT Monday...Any convection that finally develops
this evening will be dying down by about 10pm following sunset.
Precipitation will end from west to east across the area. We may
see some fog develop in the typically fog prone spots that
actually had some rain and therefore abundant moisture at the
surface, but confidence is low at this point for any significant
fog development. Minimum temperatures will remain in the 60s
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 PM EDT Monday...Quieter weather returns for Tuesday
through Wednesday night as a ridge of high pressure builds to our
southwest. Temperatures will be above seasonal normals though with
mid 80s expected on Tuesday and near 90 on Wednesday with 850
temps in the teens each day. Some afternoon cu over the mountains
is expected on Tuesday, possibly a sprinkle or light shower in the
higher terrain as a weak shortwave passes along the international
border. Quiet weather and clearing skies will return Tuesday
night, better chance for patchy fog with better radiational
cooling conditions. Lows will be in the 60s Tuesday night.
Wednesday will be the warmer of the two days in the short term
with highs edging up around 90. Westerly flow aloft continues
allowing aforementioned surface ridge to continue to advect into
our region. A weak surface cold front will approach from Canada
Wednesday night and will have a chance of showers along with this
feature, though not abundant moisture. Wednesday night will be
warm and humid with minimum temperatures only dropping into the
mid 60s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 336 PM EDT Monday...Surface ridge building in from south
central Canada with light north-northwest flow will coincide with
500mb troughing providing a low chance for showers on Thursday.
Continued ridging at the surface and slight ridging aloft will
keep Friday dry before low pressure system develops to the
south/west and brings a chance for precipitation late Friday.
Model guidance diverges on evolution of this system associated
with two areas of vorticity embedded in the 500mb flow. 12Z ECMWF
develops these features into a double barrel surface low pressure
system late in the week into the weekend. While 12Z GFS keeps mid
level vorts along more southerly route and surface high pressure
over southwestern Quebec and the northern New England. High
uncertainty in the pattern beyond early Friday. Both models show
mid level troughing across the Northeast late Saturday with the
GFS much broader than the ECMWF. With these differences noted,
have stuck with Superblend with chances for precipitation through
Monday.

Temperatures generally expected to be near normal, but highly
dependent on variability of cloud cover and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18z Tuesday...VFR conditions will exist through much of
the period. However still a chance for some scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move east across the area resulting
in periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. Light winds becoming south and
southwest this afternoon at speeds in the 5 to 15 knot range.
Showers will push East of the region by about 00z, VFR conditions
will continue with mainly cloudy skies in place.

Outlook 18z Tuesday through Friday...

18z Tue - 00z Fri: Mainly VFR under high pressure. Isolated
showers possible Wed/Thu afternoons.

00z Fri - Sat: Increasing chances for widespread MVFR showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Evenson/Neiles



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