Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 200517
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME PROTECTED HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING WET WEATHER FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS AFFECTING TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...BUT CLEARING TAKING PLACE ELSEWHERE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. HAVE TWEAKED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL DUE TO THE CHANGING CLOUD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDITIONAL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATL TRENDS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY BREAKING UP ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH
CLRING SLOWLY PUSHING INTO VT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV BTWN 06-10Z THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD STARTING TO APPROACH THE SLV THIS
MORNING WL OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. HAVE PLACED VCSH AT MSS/MPV/SLK TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TWD
TUESDAY MORNING

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH MVFR
VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER









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