Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 221745
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
145 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure over southern Quebec will continue to move east
as an upper trough brings a slight chance of rain showers to
the North Country today. A ridge of high pressure will build
east from the Great Lakes on Sunday and will remain over the
region through early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
As of 1044 AM EDT Saturday...Isolated to scattered showers
remain over the North Country with persistent cloudy skies as
mid-upper level trough pushes across the region today. A ridge
of surface high pressure will build into our region overnight.
Maximum temperatures today will be cool, upper 40s to lower 50s.
Minimum temperatures overnight will be in the 30s across the
area, pretty close to seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 426 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather during the short term
period. East-west oriented surface ridge of high pressure for
Sunday with zonal west to east flow at 500 mb and northern
stream trough passing across northern Quebec. Plenty of sunshine
Sunday with seasonable temperatures, highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s and lows in the 30s. Late Sunday into Monday a surface
front sags south with wind shift out of the north. Cooler
temperatures Monday mainly in the north, primarily due to cloud
cover associated with the front rather than cold air advection.
No precip forecast with it as moisture is limited to the lower
levels and no synoptic forcing.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 426 AM EDT Saturday...Weather becomes more active from
mid-week onward with periodic chances for showers. The northern
stream low moves east into the Canadian maritimes through
Tuesday to no effect on our forecast, and meanwhile a southern
stream weather becomes more active from mid-week onward with
periodic chances for showers. The northern stream low moves east
into the Canadian maritimes through Tuesday to no effect on our
forecast, and meanwhile a southern stream trough moving across
the southern tier states makes a left turn at the coast Monday
night and moves north. GFS and ECMWF in good enough agreement
with surface low moving up the Atlantic coast and then northeast
over the benchmark 40N/70W mid day Wednesday. As the low moves
up the coast low level flow turns easterly off the Atlantic,
with more moisture and cooler temperatures in Vermont,
especially east and south, warming to the west into the St
Lawrence Valley. Chances for showers Tuesday into Tuesday night
as the low brushes the area, with better chances in southeast
portion of the forecast area tapering off to northwest.

Brief ridge of high pressure late Wednesday, then a cold front
renews precip chances mainly Thursday. Warm southerly flow ahead
of this front with forecast highs Thursday in the 60s to near
70 in the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys. Added slgt
chance of thunder thinking better instability and shear with
warm surface temperatures and approaching trough aloft. Friday
ends up with west to northwest post frontal winds and
temperatures back to near normal.rough moving across the
southern tier states makes a left turn at the coast Monday night
and moves north. GFS and ECMWF in good enough agreement with
surface low moving up the Atlantic coast and then northeast over
the benchmark 40N/70W mid day Wednesday. As the low moves up
the coast low level flow turns easterly off the Atlantic, with
more moisture and cooler temperatures in Vermont, especially
east and south, warming to the west into the St Lawrence Valley.
Chances for showers Tuesday into Tuesday night as the low
brushes the area, with better chances in southeast portion of
the forecast area tapering off to northwest.

Brief ridge of high pressure late Wednesday, then a cold front
renews precip chances mainly Thursday. Warm southerly flow ahead
of this front with forecast highs Thursday in the 60s to near
70 in the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys. Added slgt
chance of thunder thinking better instability and shear with
warm surface temperatures and approaching trough aloft. Friday
ends up with west to northwest post frontal winds and
temperatures back to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Champlain valley seeing VFR conditions
with MVFR at KMSS/KSLK and IFR at KMPV. Expect VFR to persist in
the Champlain Valley through Sunday evening.

Back edge of MVFR cigs is gradually shifting eastward and
expect KMSS to see breaks in overcast late this afternoon.
However, VFR not expected til after 00Z at KMSS.

MVFR cigs expected to persist at KSLK longer in generally
upslope flow. Brief break in MVFR cigs after 02Z will result in
potential for MVFR BR/FG development and MVFR cigs. Expect
conditions to improve to VFR after sunrise Sunday.

IFR at KMPV will improve to MVFR this afternoon and eventually
become VFR early Sunday morning. Scattered rain showers this
afternoon will diminish this evening.

Winds generally out of the W to NW at 5-10kts this afternoon
and evening. With high pressure building overnight, lgt and vrb
winds expected through late morning Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 426 AM EDT Friday...Lake Champlain has settled down with
loss of strong winds, and gages around the lake showing around
99.7 feet, still just 3 tenths below flood stage. Dry weather
through Monday and little wind to cause surge and wave action
will allow the lake to remain quiet, with a very slow drop in
lake level through the start of next week.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/Neiles
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...Hanson



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