Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
FXUS61 KBTV 290803
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
403 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016
showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an end overnight.
Scattered showers will reform Wednesday as an upper level weather
system swings across the region, but the end of the work week will
see a return to warm and dry weather. A few showers are expected
Friday night and into early Saturday. At this time, it looks like
the Independence Day holiday weekend will feature good outdoor
activity weather with mild temperatures.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 117 AM EDT Tuesday...Finally starting to see a wind-down in
thunderstorm coverage after this afternoon`s scattered strong to
severe storms and heavy rainfall. Please see our latest Local
Storm Report for a summary of the hail, wind and flash flood storm
reports received. With that said, there remains an area of heavier
thunderstorms producing a decent amount of lightning from
northeast Windham County. This stretches into the southern part of
Windsor County, trailing back to additional northward-moving
showers and spotty intra-cloud flashes towards the Albany NY area
and the Pioneer Valley of northwest MA. These showers/storms are
on the leading edge of a shortwave trough evident over central NY.
This shouldn`t amount to much except for some lightning and
localized rainfall amounts generally at or below 0.50". I`ve
essentially nowcasted the PoPs, Wx and QPF in southern VT to go
with Likely/Occasional showers and chance thunder through 08z,
with chance to likely showers for the east-central and Northeast
Kingdom sections of VT.
With the boundary layer stabilizing but also rather saturated and
very weak flow through a decent amount as shown in area Doppler
wind profiler data, I suspect that there will be some intervals of
mist or patchy fog as rain clears. Northwest gradient flow toward
morning should start to mix that out, but I`ve included a greater
coverage of patchy fog in the forecast.
Temps should pretty much hover in the mid/upper 60s across
Vermont, with upper 50s to low 60s across northern New York.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...A weak ridge of high pressure will
build east from the Ohio valley and Great Lakes on Thursday and
will remain over the region through early Friday, with fair and
dry weather expected. On Friday, models showing an upper trough
and a cold front swinging southeast across the Great Lakes. Models
also showing this upper trough will pull additional moisture
northward from the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. GFS model
showing deep layer shear of 35-40 knots in the 0-6km layer by
Friday afternoon, as well as most unstable cape values of
1500-2300 j/kg by late Friday afternoon. SPC has the region in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Will hold
off on any enhanced wording for Friday at this time, and will let
later shifts reevaluate this. Shower and thunderstorm activity to
continue into early Friday night.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper trough will linger over the
region on Saturday, so will keep in a chance for showers. Could be
some residual showers on Sunday near the international border, but
most of the region should remain dry on Sunday. Models in good
agreement from Sunday night through Tuesday as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the region, with fair and dry weather
.AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mix of flight categories from VFR to LIFR
across the airports due to leftover showers across eastern VT and
developing mist or light fog with the saturated conditions.
Still some lightning being reported near VSF and LEB but should
remain distant from RUT and MPV. Expect changeable flight
category conditions to continue through at least 11z. As showers
clear expect some areas of 1 to 2 SM mist/fog to set up and this
has already occurred at BTV and MSS and likely also the case at
SLK. Winds through 12z will be light and variable.
General improving conditions to VFR early Wednesday morning. As
skies clear and stronger diurnal heating begins, expect there to
be some scattered showers/possible thunderstorms. Could see brief
MVFR cig and MVFR/IFR visby reductions in any thunderstorms.
Coverage and start time remain unclear so I`ve treated as VCSH
for now with hopefully more clarity by the 12z TAF issuance. This
activity is diurnally driven and should end by sunset. Winds
generally light northwesterly under 5 kts.
Outlook 06z thursday through Sunday...
00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with LIFR radiational fog
likely at MPV and SLK Thursday night.
12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.
12z Saturday through 00z Sunday...Generally VFR, but brief
VFR/MVFR showers possible at PBG, BTV and MPV as upper trough
00z Sunday onward...VFR under high pressure. Possible evening LIFR
fog with the best chance at SLK.