Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 301712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1219 PM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. MIXING SLIGHTLY LESS THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE UNDER SOLID CLOUD
COVER. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1017 AM MONDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND WILL CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY. SEEING CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
SHOWING UP DOWNWIND OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AS
MODEST SURFACE HEATING OCCURS AND MIXING INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK CAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY TAKING ON MORE OF A CONVECTIVE LOOK HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING TURN MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST
FOLLOWING INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS 15 TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
LIKELY. SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
WAITS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH
WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS WILL BE ENDING. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND RUN QUICKLY ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHICH
WILL FURTHER THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING MORE COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST REGION. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING
ABOUT -9C ON ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES LOW TO MID LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A VERY BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WE WONT BE QUITE AS DRY AS YESTERDAY AND
THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY TO OFFSET THE OTHERWISE
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE NORMAL COLD
PRONE AREAS TO DROP INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE CHAMPLAIN
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS BOTH HOLDING IN THE IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20.

WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO SLIDE OUT OF THE
REGION LEAVING BEHIND DRY AIR UNDER NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTING TO MORE WESTERLY BY MID AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL BE
QUIET AND DRY WITH A CHANCE TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RUNNING
ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...A FAST/PROGRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...BRINGING
CHANGABLE CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD.

A SURFACE RIDGE AND 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TO START
THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS...THOUGH MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN PA/WRN
NY AND SERN ONTARIO. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED...CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BECOME QUASI-STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING TEMPS BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE START OF APRIL...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. MAY SEE A FEW READINGS 10-15F ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH ANTICIPATED LATER ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDINESS.

WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY FROM SW-NE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MAY SEE AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LIGHT/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO
+3 TO +5C BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN.  SFC TEMPS WILL LIKEWISE BE
TRENDING WARMER...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS WITH
DEVELOPING FAST SW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN FAST SW FLOW LIKELY BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
RAINFALL EITHER THURSDAY AFTN OR THURSDAY NIGHT. CARRIED CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

SHALLOW COLD FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY SEWD FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-500MB
FLOW REMAINING SWLY...DON/T FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HRS FRIDAY...DESPITE W-NW SFC WIND SHIFT. LIKELY STILL
SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 40S. EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER RIVER ICE BREAKUP...BUT
LIMITED QPF (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.50") WILL KEEP RIVER FLOWS
RELATIVELY LOW AND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FLOOD THREAT.

BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST  FRONTAL ZONE STALLING NEAR OR JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE BNDRY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM COULD
BRING POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS PCPN
POTENTIALLY INTENSIFIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MAY SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW
ACCUMULATION...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. CLEARING AND SEASONABLY COLD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT UPR TEENS TO LOWER 20S...FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOME IFR LIKELY AT KSLK TERMINAL DURING THIS PERIOD. PCPN
ENDS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH LINGERING BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO 30 KTS THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER AND SLOWLY ABATING BEHIND FRONT/TROUGH
PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...JMG



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