Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 232053
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES


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