Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 151815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
215 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA
AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 208 PM EDT TUESDAY...DROPPED WIND ADVSY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS OF THE NOONTIME HOUR AS STEADIER RAINFALL HAS ARRIVED IN
THE VALLEY AND INHIBITED MIXING MORE THOROUGHLY. KCXX VWP VALUES
STILL RUNNING FROM 50-60KTS IN THE 2-3 KFT LAYER...BUT THIS SHOULD
REMAIN ALOFT. WATCHING COLD FRONT MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS HOUR...AND REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY THE 1-2 0`CLOCK HOUR...AND THEN
EASTWARD INTO REMAINDER OF VT THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO WATCHING INTERESTING CONVECTIVE FINELINE ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WHICH IS PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT
ENTERS OUR WESTERN VT COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR AREA AND MONITOR FUTURE
STATEMENTS FROM THE NWS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUITE BUSY HERE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS LARGER STREAMS
AND RIVERS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD. IN SHORT...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS NEEDED AS
OF MID-MORNING...MAINLY TO MATCH CURRENT POSITION OF MOVEMENT OF
STRONG POLAR FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR REGION. AS ANTICIPATED...TEMP
DROPS UP TO 20F IN ONE HOUR BEHIND FROPA AS READINGS CRASH QUICKLY
INTO THE 40S. THIS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING IN THE SLV WHERE FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. MUCH MILDER IN THE 60S FROM THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO VERMONT...BUT TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL ON
TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO
THE REGION. AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING (SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO
TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CURRENTLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH VT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG THE FRONT EXPECT RAPID WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTHWEST AND WIND GUSTS 25-30KTS. MOD TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE FRONT LEAVES THE
AREA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT KMSS NOW AND
AND REACHING KMPV BY 00Z.

EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT THEN IFR TO MVFR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. SNOW TAPERS OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS WITH ONLY SOME VCSH NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCT CONDITIONS 16-18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. BASIN AVG QPF RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH IN NRN
NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT EXPECTED. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT IS
RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO YESTERDAYS VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500
FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...THE
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL KEEP...OR PUSH MANY RIVERS AND
SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES MODERATE FLOOD BY
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY
LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY GOING TO:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG






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