Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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569
FXUS61 KBTV 280026
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
726 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly flow over our area is south of a weak frontal system
in Quebec. It will bring partly skies south to mostly cloudy
skies in the north along with breezy and mild conditions this
afternoon. Weak high pressure tonight will yield fair weather
and seasonably mild temperatures tonight. Periods of rain with
well above normal temps return late Tuesday into Wednesday as a
slow moving front moves across the region. This could produce
more rises on our above normal stream levels. Much cooler air
arrives by the end of the week...along with chances for mainly
mountain snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 618 PM EST Monday...Minor tweak to hourly grids to
increase temps by 2 to 4 degrees based on current obs...as rate
of cooling is slower than expected. Weak front near the
international border will continue to drop across our cwa this
evening...with lowering surface dwpts and clearing skies.
Thinking once skies become mostly clear and winds decrease temps
will start falling faster. Otherwise...slight/chance pops across
extreme northern VT into the NEK still looks good...as radar is
showing some light returns. This light precip will exit our cwa
by 03z...which is covered nicely in grids. Rest of forecast in
great shape.

Previous discussion below:
A weak ridge of high pressure moves
across the region overnight and as the winds turn calm expect a
very shallow inversion to develop as radiational cooling will
drop our overnight lows into the 20s. How cold it gets will
depend on the how clear the skies get but looking more clearing
north than south.

On Tuesday...Warm advection gets underway with increasing
clouds and a chance of light rain showers mainly mid afternoon
onward from SW to NE. 925 mb temps rise to 1 to 3 deg C by 18Z
which should give us high temps in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 357 PM EST Monday...On Tuesday night a warm front will
lift Northwards across our CWA as a low pressure system lifts
Northeastward across the Great Lakes area. We will have
scattered rain showers at this time with overnight minimum
temperatures achieved early in the night, very mild, then
increasing with warm air advection through the overnight hours.
Brisk southerly flow is expected. Looks like there will be a
chance for some elevated convection, mainly from 06-12z
Wednesday morning and have chance of TS mentioned in the
forecast during that time.

Wednesday will be very warm, likely setting more max
temperature records for the day to start out the month of March.
Temperatures will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Low
pressure system tracks from the Great Lakes region eastward on
Wednesday, and we should remain in the warm sector all day. Have
mentioned stratiform rain categorical on Wednesday. Feel that
best chance for thunder will be south of our forecast area.
Winds will continue to be strong and gusty out of the South.

Wednesday night the cold front will finally cross the area. Any
rain showers remaining will change over to snow showers with
sharp cold front dropping temperatures into the teens and 20s
overnight. Wednesday night the winds will veer around to
Northwesterly behind the front and will see some enhancement in
the Northwest facing slopes with a bit favorable orographic
flow. At this time looks like our QPF totals will range from
around a half an inch to an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 357 PM EST Monday...Expect a near normal day on Thursday
with snow showers ending as system pulls further east and away
from the region. Upper level flow flattens out and a ridge of
surface high pressure builds over the area. Below normal
temperatures are expected for Friday through Saturday night.
Temperatures return to above normal then for the end of the
forecast period as high pressure sets up off the Carolina coast
for Sunday and Monday. GFS and ECMWF both show a system to
impact the region from the Monday night through Wednesday
timeframe, though huge discrepancies are evident at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected the
through the period as a weak ridge of high pressure will be over
the region. A warm front will approach the region Tuesday
afternoon with a chance of light rain showers developing over
northern New York between 18Z-21z Tuesday, and then across the
Champlain valley and Vermont between 21z-23Z Tuesday.

Outlook 00Z Wednesday through Saturday...

00Z Wednesday - 06Z Thursday...Scattered/numerous rain showers
with variable cigs from VFR to IFR before low pressure and cold
front crosses the region Wed evening.

06Z Thursday 12Z Saturday...Becoming Mainly VFR but ocnl snow
showers/flurries and MVFR/IFR conditions.

12z Saturday onward...Mainly VFR under high pressure.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 PM EST Monday...The last river in flood is the Barton
River in Coventry. The river level are receding and expect this
river to go back below flood stage this evening.

We continue to watch Tuesday night through Wednesday night time
period closely for the potential for additional river rises
associated with several rounds of showers and warm temperatures.
Additional snow melt and the potential for river
rises...especially given the already high levels. The good news
is that most river ice is gone and our areal coverage of deep
snow pack is much less than previous event...resulting in less
runoff potential. We will continue to monitor for potential
impacts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We could see some records broken on Wednesday based on our
forecast high temperatures. Current records for March 1st are as
follows:

Burlington - 59 set in 1954
Montpelier - 53 set in 1991
St. Johnsbury - 58 set in 1954
Massena - 49 set in 1954

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...Taber/Sisson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...Taber/Neiles
CLIMATE...Evenson



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