Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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404
FXUS61 KBTV 260547
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
147 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue across the region throughout the
entire week with a daily threat of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Some of the rainfall may trend heavy, especially later in the week
as a more humid airmass moves into the area. Temperatures will
remain close to seasonal early summer norms through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 147 AM EDT Monday...Convection has come to an end over
the area with just some lingering convective debris clouds. Have
tweaked these early morning hours to reflect less cloud cover
and no precipitation chances.

Previous Discussion...
More active weather still on tap for Monday as yet another
strong shortwave drops into the central Great Lakes area. Low
level surface trough boundary connecting today`s shortwave (then
across the Canadian Maritimes) to the Great Lakes feature will
serve as focus for low level convergence and additional
showers/isolated thunderstorms by tomorrow afternoon. Best
coverage to occur during peak heating hours of noon to 6 pm or
so before covering slowly wanes into the evening and especially
overnight hours. Low to mid level lapse rates are poorer than
today and with cooler boundary layer temperatures per 925-850 mb
progs updraft strength in convective cores will not be as
robust. Thus no strong to severe storms are expected. Highs
tomorrow mainly from the mid 60s to lower 70s with lows Monday
night from 45 to 55.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...Strong upper level trough will cross
the area on Tuesday. Lots of clouds will keep temperatures mild
on Tuesday, highs around five to ten degrees below normal.
Temperatures aloft are even cooler which results in a bit of
instability, so have mentioned showers as well as thunderstorms
in the afternoon and evening. Cold air aloft means low wet bulb
zero heights so won`t be surprised to see some small hail in any
deeper convection. Have chance for showers mentioned early
Tuesday evening across our Northeastern zones but chances will
lessen overnight with upper level and surface ridging building
into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...The extended portion of the forecast
looks wet and near normal for temperatures. It will not be
cloudy and rainy continuously, but weather pattern is active and
there will be several rounds of precipitation, tough to find a
dry day in the next week. Upper level flow is progressive and
fast with west to east flow. Shortwaves passing through upper
level flow will enhance chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Still tough to time these shortwaves, and have continued with
previous forecaster thinking of a model blend from day to day.
GFS and ECMWF continue to show a large upper level trough
developing to our west on Saturday, deep southerly flow develops
and brings some very moist air to the region. Temperatures will
start out slightly below seasonal normals then trend back
towards seasonal normals towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Showers have come to an end across the
area early this morning and not looking for any additional
showers until after 18z. Areal coverage of the showers will be
isolated to scattered between 18z and 04z with just a low chance
for thunder. Have indicated vicinity showers at all sites during
this time period. Ceilings will generally be VFR through the
period and visibilities for that matter too. The only exception
to this will be at KMSS where abundant rainfall from yesterday
will enhance the potential for low clouds and fog and there may
be a period of IFR to LIFR conditions between 09z and 12z. Winds
will generally be under 10 knots through the period and will
generally be from the west and southwest.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson



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