Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 270247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
947 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY
AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 947 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY,
NY INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING
EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF
RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A
WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING
EFFECTS HAVE BEEN MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL
ESTIMATES SHOWING A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WHERE TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ESSEX, NY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2
INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
THIS EVENING. LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW
PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING/LIFT TO PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL
EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING
AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL
ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER



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