Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 251105
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
705 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure centered over eastern Quebec will provide dry
weather with plenty of sunshine today. The start of the new work
week will also be marked by a period of notably warmer weather.
Temperatures will soar into the 50s for many areas today and
Tuesday. A slow moving cold front will then lead to the likelihood
of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today is guaranteed to be a warmer day throughout the region. The
area of Canadian high pressure will drift to extreme eastern Quebec
where its clockwise circulation will direct notably milder into our
area. Much warmer air will move in aloft as well, but unfortunately
highs will be limited to the mid/upper 40s from the Finger Lakes
east and mainly low to mid 50s for western NY as a persistent and
rather staunch low level inversion around 3kft will prevent full
mixing or else we would be even warmer. That said, this is still
quite a nice rebound back to 5-10 degrees above average. Localized
downslope winds between the Chautauqua Ridge and the Lake Erie shore
may gust to 30-35 mph at times through midday or so before tailing
off some through the afternoon. Winds will then begin to ramp up
once again this evening.

While tonight will certainly be precipitation free, it will become
quite windy for some areas. A 50 knot low level jet sandwiched
between the aforementioned surface high and a deepening storm system
over the upper Mississippi Valley will impinge upon our region. The
bulk of these winds within the warm advective pattern will remain
trapped aloft by the previously discussed inversion, but in the
typical downslope areas, the south to southeast flow could prove to
be an issue. The biggest risk for stronger winds will be found
between Lake Erie and the Chautauqua Ridge where 45-50 mph wind
gusts will be possible as the eastern edge of the stronger low level
winds clips western NY. If guidance continues to advertise winds of
this magnitude, a Wind Advisory may eventually be needed for these
areas, thus will continue a mention in the HWO for this area. A
lesser threat will be found across the remaining higher terrain of
the western Southern Tier and on the north facing slopes of the Tug
Hill where gusts up to 35-40 mph will be possible. Funneling down
the Black River valley is another area worth keeping an eye on.
Otherwise, it won`t be nearly as cold tonight, with lows ranging
from the upper 20s to lower 30s east of Lake Ontario to the mid and
upper 30s across most of western NY. However, the southeasterly
downslope flow may keep low temperatures in the low 40s locally
northwest of the Chautauqua Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level short wave will advance toward the region from the upper
Great Lakes Tuesday, as the amplified ridge over the east coast
very slowly moves eastward. The day starts out dry, but the
strength of the low level inflow will be efficient in
transporting a deep plume of moisture into western New York by
afternoon, supporting an increase risk for showers west of the
Finger Lakes. Continued warm advection will send temperatures
well into the 50s, with 60s possible along the lake plains.

Associated cold front held upstream during the day Tuesday will
move into the region later Tuesday night, supporting additional
chances of showers.

Deep trough to our west will slowly creep east with showers
decreasing in coverage Wednesday as a mid level dry slot works
in from the west. The more concentrated area of showers will
be from the Genesee Valley east and then across the North
Country. It will remain mild ahead of the front with
temperatures peaking in the mid 50s to mid 60s, with the warmest
readings east of the Genesee Valley.

Drier weather will gradually return areawide Wednesday night
but it will also turn progressively cooler behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Thursday the midweek system will be largely to our east...with
perhaps a few leftover showers hanging on across the North Country.
Otherwise high pressure and cooler/drier air will gradually build
across the region Thursday through Friday night and offer a period
of fair dry weather. Temperatures will be right around normal for
the end of March...with daily highs in the mid to upper 40s and
nightly lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

After that the medium range guidance packages diverge considerably
for next weekend...with the GFS much more aggressive at bringing a
mid-level trough and surface low across the Great Lakes compared to
the other guidance...which either has a much weaker/more suppressed
system or none at all...with the GEM/ECMWF largely keeping Canadian
high pressure dominant across our region. Given these differences
will lean more heavily toward continuity and a blended approach
for now...which favors largely dry weather and continued seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control as it slowly drifts east across
Quebec through tonight with widespread VFR conditions through the
entire 12Z TAF cycle. Mid and upper level decks will begin to
thicken and lower across western NY during the second half of
tonight ahead of the next system approaching the area from the west.

Over time, a tightening surface pressure gradient will bring a
gradually increasing southeasterly flow in across western and
northcentral NY. At the same time, winds off the deck will also
progressively ramp up, bringing more frequent gusts later in the TAF
period. Wind gusts across most areas will remain below 20 knots
through this afternoon and evening, with a few gusts to 30 knots
possible overnight.

Tonight, winds off the deck will become strong enough around 2kft to
bring the possibility for wind shear conditions late in the TAF
period for KBUF/KIAG/KROC. A stout inversion just off the deck will
make it difficult for these winds aloft to mix down to the surface.
However, if better mixing can occur (i.e. gustier surface winds),
then wind shear may not be an issue, however higher gusts would be
realized at the surface instead.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR but with the chance of showers far west late.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR CIGS with showers likely.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate east to southeast winds will be in place today, although
winds will freshen across Lake Ontario. Given that the flow will be
mainly offshore, the choppiest conditions will be found in Canadian
waters. However, with more of an easterly component to the wind
developing across central and western Lake Ontario, near Small Craft
conditions will be found from near Sodus Bay westward.

Flow will remain mainly offshore through mid week, however winds
(and possibly waves at times) may near Small Craft Advisory
thresholds on both Lakes through this period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...AR/TMA
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/RSH


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