800
FXUS64 KHUN 091714
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1214 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 925 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

The good news is that the severe threat has finally ended across
north AL and southern middle TN after a long night of damaging
winds, hail, and likely several tornadoes. Flash flooding has
become the primary concern late this morning, with multiple
impassable roads and mudslides reported across the area after 4-5"
of rain has fallen just north of the TN River. Stratiform rain
will continue to push southeast through the area and is now mostly
east of the I-65 corridor. High pressure will begin to push into
the region, but cooler temperatures will lag behind as a cold
front slowly pushes its way through the area later today. Winds
will veer to the northwest into the evening along the front, and
could be gusty at times. Sky cover will clear from west to east
this afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise into the mid to
upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Another short wave is expected to pass across the region tonight,
but the better dynamic lift is expected to be to our south.
Isentropic progs indicate some lift/saturation aloft over our area
during the evening, and peaking overnight. However, there is
disagreement among regional/global models over the degree of
saturation in addition to lift/instability. POPs were kept rather
low (20s to 30s) for the nighttime period due to the uncertainty
with the northern extent of precipitation.

A shortwave trough digging southward into the Grt Lakes early
this morning will phase with a Northern Plains trough and carve
out a broader long wave trough in the eastern CONUS on Friday. As
a result a cooler, continental air mass will move into the TN
Valley late tonight and Friday. This eastern CONUS trough pattern
will tend to be maintained through Sunday, with slightly cooler
than normal temperatures through the period. Successive shortwave
maxima rotating around the western flank of the parent upr trough
could bring a bout or two of increased cloudiness, but chances
appear too low for any RA/SHRA to include in the forecast at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A partially closed upr low in the West CONUS will be ejected
eastward as heights begin to fall in the northern Rockies from
late Sunday into Monday. Moisture advection/ascent ahead of the
pending upr trough could begin to bring rain to the area as early
as Monday morning. Instability will increase gradually on Monday,
but forecast thermal profiles just appear marginally unstable at
this time, limiting updraft strength and severe potential. This
trough may become partially closed again as it makes its way
eastward across the OH/TN Valley regions, with chances for
showers/thunderstorms continuing into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected much of the period. A brief period of
MVFR VSBYS are expected towards daybreak between 08Z and 12Z, as
winds become fairly light and little cloud cover is expected.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...KTW