Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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782 FXUS64 KHUN 100840 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Upper level zonal flow will evolve into northwest flow by this afternoon as upper level ridging moves over the Midwest. Surface high pressure will also build into the Tennessee Valley today. This will translate into a fairly nice day, with clouds clearing through the day and much less muggy conditions. Although, a tightening pressure gradient as a surface low moves east over Georgia and the Carolinas will result in breezy conditions this afternoon. Sustained northwest winds between 10-20 mph and wind gusts to around 20-25 mph are anticipated. Not considering a Wind Advisory at this time since these values are well under criteria. As for high temperatures this afternoon, expecting highs to merely reach the lower to mid 70s over southern middle Tennessee and in the mid to upper 70s over northern Alabama. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Upper level northwest flow will persist into this weekend, but an upper ridge will make its way over the Tennessee Valley on Sunday. Overall, surface high pressure should largely maintain its hold over the local area; however, a weak surface cold front may progress over Kentucky and Tennessee Saturday afternoon. Any precipitation associated with this feature looks to remain to our northeast and thus, the dry forecast will continue through Sunday. Overall, expect a nice weekend with mostly sunny skies. High temperatures are forecast to gradually warm, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Sunday afternoon. Although, a much cooler night than we`ve seen recently is on tap for tonight. Lows will likely dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the Tennessee Valley. Some patchy fog development is possible late tonight into early Saturday morning as well. Lows Saturday night will then be a touch warmer, but still be in the lower to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 An unsettled and generally wet pattern is in the forecast for the new work week. At the start of the period, surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS will move towards the SE coast by Monday morning. While this occurs, a system that should bring convection over the southern Great Plains will rapidly advance to the NE under a subtropical flow from the SW/northern Mexico. This next system will bring an increase in clouds and return chances of showers beginning before daybreak for parts of NW to north central Alabama, then overspreading the rest of the area during the course of Mon morning. Before showers return, a southern flow and higher heights should make for a slightly milder Sunday night with lows in the mid/upper 50s. More clouds and higher rain chances will make for a cooler start to the work week, with highs Mon in the mid 70s. Have returned isolated to scattered chances of thunderstorms Mon afternoon and evening. A feed of moisture from the south will continue into Tuesday evening, with scattered to numerous showers, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Overall Thunderstorm intensity at this time looks to be general, with possible gusty winds, heavy downpours and sudden lightning strikes. Instances of heavier precipitation on our rather wet soils could run off, bringing a risk of ponding of water and/or flash flooding. Too many variations in model output further out precludes trying to pick the wettest day, and where it will occur. Rain chances will continue for the mid and latter half of the week as another system moves in from the west. Despite more clouds than sun and daily shower/thunderstorm chances, a moderation in the airmass should help daily high temperatures return into the lower 80s. Lows for the mid/latter half of the week should range in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through Friday evening. Upper level cloud cover from the storms to our south will persist overnight but are expected to gradually thin out Friday morning. In fact, clear skies are forecast by mid-evening on Friday. Winds overnight will generally remain around 5 knots or less, but increase through the morning hours. By early Friday afternoon, northwest winds between 10-15 knots with gusts up to 15-20 knots are anticipated. Although, winds will diminish through the evening hours to be 5 knots or less once again by around midnight. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...26