Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 210336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
836 PM MST Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a cooling trend with windy conditions through
Friday. Cool conditions will persist over the weekend, although
not as windy. Expect freezing temperatures for much of the high
country Saturday and Sunday mornings.


.UPDATE...No major updates were required to the ongoing forecast.
The wind advisory for tomorrow looks to be in good shape.

Otherwise, clear skies will continue overnight with winds staying
up downwind from higher elevation features. Only adjusted the
hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind grids based on current obs
and trends. Otherwise, the remaining forecast elements are in good
shape. The updated gridded and text products have been sent.


.PREV DISCUSSION /300 PM MST/... A trough across the western U.S.
will continue to deepen and dig southward over the next couple
days. An uptick in winds is expected for Thursday, and a wind
advisory has been issued to account for the gusty winds across
much of northern Arizona. As the trough nears and pushes across
the state, a chance for showers will develop Thursday evening and
into Friday, with much cooler daytime temperatures developing for
Friday and the weekend. In addition, many locations above 6500
may experience the first significant freeze of the season on
Saturday/Sunday mornings. Climatologically, this is about right
on time for when we normally experience this. Temperatures are
gradually anticipated to return to near normal levels next week.


.AVIATION...For the 06z package...Expect VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours. Overnight, winds will generally weaken to southwest
at 5-15 kt but gusts to 35 kt will be possible downwind of
terrain features. On Thursday, southwest winds of 20-30 kt with
gust to 40 kt are expected by the afternoon. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Strong southwesterly winds will develop across
northern Arizona on Thursday. For Friday, a cold front will move
across the area with breezy conditions continuing. Generally dry
conditions are forecast with just a slight chance of
thunderstorms. A bit cooler temperatures behind the cold front.

Saturday through Monday...Look for lighter winds as the cold front
moves eastward. A slight chance for thunderstorms will continue on
Saturday but end for Sunday and Monday. The cooler air mass will
ensure well below normal temperatures into early next week.


MST Thursday FOR AZZ004>017-039-040.




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