Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 220353
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
853 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT-TERM UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /328 PM MST/...
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/TX. THIS HAS
SET UP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE ONLY NOTABLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ALONG THE EASTER BORDER WHERE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WELL AS REMNANT DEBRIS FROM AN MCS
THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER SONORA MEXICO EXISTS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE AGAIN BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO...AND
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGINNING
TOMORROW MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT AND THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER DRY...SO DONT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE.
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WORK WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. WHILE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASE A LITTLE ON THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON
RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PATCHY FU POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY SOUTH OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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