Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 200352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
852 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific storm system will exit the state this
evening. Periods of rain and high elevation snow along with colder
temperatures will continue tonight. Dry weather and warming
temperatures are forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Another round of
showers is possible Wednesday and Thursday when a quick moving
cold front is forecast to move through Arizona.


Short term forecast is in good shape with no updates planned.



The closed low pressure system responsible for the cool and wet
condtions across the region is slowly exiting Arizona to the North
East. As it moves out of the region this evening scattered shower
activity will decrease with some residual moisture allowing for
shower formation overnight. Stream rises have been occurring
across Yavapai and Northern Gila as the recent rains make their
way through the hydrologic system. Data points are showing most
locations have already crested in response to this precipitation
with a slow receding of the waters through the next 24 hours. No
locations have been reported as exceeding their banks, and the
only significant impact appears to be road crossings of washes.
Dry conditions will develop Monday and Tuesday as an induced
shortwave ridge will move over the area and allow for temperatures
to warm back up towards seasonal values to start the work week.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday night.

At the start of the period, strong southwesterly flow will begin
to develop as northern Arizona is caught between a weakening
ridge over southwest TX/northern Mexico and a strong short wave
trough just off the US west coast. Well above average
temperatures will continue into Wednesday as southwest winds
increase and become gusty. Low precip chances are included from
Wednesday night into Thursday, most notably near and north of
Interstate 40, as a strong cold front crosses northern Arizona.
Precip amounts are currently expected to remain light as most of
the moisture being advected inland by this trough should
precipitate over northern CA and the Great Basin. Much colder air
is forecast to move in behind this front, however, with high
temperatures on Thursday 15-20 degrees colder than those expected
on Wednesday.

Temperatures near to slightly below average and dry conditions are
forecast for Friday and Saturday as northern Arizona is influenced
by zonal flow aloft. The next chance for widespread precipitation
is late next weekend. There is still plenty of spread regarding
the depth and track of next weekend`s trough, but expect snow
levels to be lower than they were with the event we just


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect wdsprd bkn-ovc cigs from
3-5kft agl through 15z-17z Monday. Localized IFR/LIFR condtions will
affect higher terrain sites, especially along and just west of the
Kaibab Plateau, Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Isold -shra/-shsn
will persist in these same areas, decreasing aft 12z-14z Monday.
Mainly VFR conditions aft 18z Monday, under bkn-ovc middle and high
cloud layers. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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