Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 032240
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
HELP DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM
ABOUT FLAGSTAFF AND PAGE EASTWARD. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BEGINNING TO DIVE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
CALIFORNIA LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
FRIDAY THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEVADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACT IS THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...IT WILL MAINLY BE WARM, DRY AND BREEZY AS THE
CALIFORNIA LOW CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL TAP INTO A TROPICAL MOISTURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF ARIZONA. DYING TROPICAL STORM ANDRES SHOULD BE A NON PLAYER
BUT THE FLOW THAT BROUGHT THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWARD IS THE SAME
FLOW THAT HAS PUSHED MOISTURE TO JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA. SO BY
THURSDAY EVENING, LOOK FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM PAYSON AND WINSLOW EASTWARD AS UPWARD MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW INTERACTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. AS A RESULT, ARIZONA WILL BE UNDER DECENT
LARGE SCALE UPWARD LIFT ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. IN ADDITION, STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PRESCOTT...FLAGSTAFF...PAGE LINE EASTWARD.
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WEST OF THIS LINE IN DRIER AIR.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
THE APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS BREEZY UNDER WEAKER GRADIENTS.

LATER NEXT WEEK...A SECOND TROPICAL STORM (CURRENTLY HURRICANE
BLANCA) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD MOVING TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO AFFECT ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY ANYTHING BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DAYTIME SFC WINDS SW 15-25G30KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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