Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240539 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1040 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING VERY WARM DAYS THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE FROM 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS OF SMOKE WITH LOW VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET EVENING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY HIGH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE...NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEVERAL PRESCRIBED BURNS ARE LOFTING SMOKE INTO THE AIR
NEAR THE GRAND CANYON...WILLIAMS AND FLAGSTAFF THIS AFTERNOON.

PRESCRIBED BURNING THROUGH FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HEIGHT DECREASES IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SMOKE WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN SLOPE OF THE BURN AND MAY
POOL IN VALLEY AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR WILLIAMS AND FLAGSTAFF MAY SEE
OVERNIGHT SMOKE REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE HALF OF A MILE
IMPACTING SMOKE SENSITIVE POPULATIONS AND DRIVING ON LOCAL ROADS AND
HIGHWAYS INCLUDING INTERSTATE 17 AND 40.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES
PRODUCING DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 25
TO 35 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS RANGE WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ARIZONA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTH
RIM OF THE GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK. A COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL MODERATE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL
NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG RANGE MODEL PROJECTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SLIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SMOKE WILL SETTLE OVERNIGHT
POSSIBLY LEADING TO LCL IFR/MVFR VIS AT KFLG/KGCN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS
AND LIGHT WINDS. ANY SMOKE IMPACTS TO TERMINALS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 18Z FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK/MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.