Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
307 AM MST Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect very active monsoon conditions for the next
several days. Local heavy rainfall capable of producing flash
flooding remains possible from stronger storms.


.DISCUSSION...Monsoon moisture will remain entrenched across all
of northern Arizona today. The steering flow, albeit weak, will
tend to guide storms south to southeastward. The primary forcing
mechanism will be daytime heating with showers and storms
tending to develop over the mountain areas first before moving
into the valleys and lower elevation locations in the mid to late
afternoon. Storms today will be slow moving with stronger/more
organized storms capable of producing 1 to 3 inch downpours.
Therefore, flooding will be the main threat from stronger storms

For Saturday and Sunday...The forecast models are still insisting
that a northeast to southwest flow sets up across Arizona in
response to high pressure becoming centered over
Nevada/Utah/Arizona. The described flow pattern will deliver a
drier air mass to the northeast corner of Arizona with a decrease
in shower and storm activity. From the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains southward and across central Arizona monsoon moisture
will remain entrenched with a good chance of showers and storms
each day.

From Monday onward...Moisture will remain in place with the threat
for daily showers and thunderstorms continuing.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect isolated -SHRA this
morning. After 18Z, scattered to numerous SHRA and TSRA developing
into early evening, with isolated +TSRA. MVFR/IFR in the stronger
storms. Shower and thunderstorm coverage gradually decreasing
after 03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Active monsoon conditions will continue with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.
Heavy rain and gusty winds will remain the primary impact. Expect
near average temperatures across the area.

Sunday through Tuesday....Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue, favoring the Mogollon Rim southward Sunday,
then all of northern Arizona Monday and Tuesday.






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