Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272235
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES
NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. LONG RANGE FORECAST
MODELS SHOW CONTINUED DRY SPRING WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE MORE
ACTIVE FIRE SEASON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WARM TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH A FEW RECORDS FALLING IN SOME LOCATIONS.
FLAGSTAFF FOR EXAMPLE HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 72 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON AT PULLIAM AIRPORT WHICH BROKE A DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORD
SET IN 1986. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. COMPUTER WEATHER MODELS ARE SHOWING
THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RECORD
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY.

MEANWHILE A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON MONDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN ARIZONA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. IMPACTS FOR MONDAY
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE FIRE STARTS
DUE TO LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR OUR EASTERN FORECAST ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES NEXT WEEK AS WE MOVE INTO A
WINDY SPRING FIRE WEATHER PATTERN AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS BY TO
THE NORTH OF THE STATE. EXPECT DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS AND PERIODS OF
STRONG WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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