Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 220411
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS LOW WILL FILTER INTO ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DOWN TURN IN STORM ACTIVITY
FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVING THIS EXTENDED RAINFALL EVENT IS
SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY...REACHING
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND SUNSET. EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AS WEAKENING DYNAMICS WITH
THE LOW ASSISTS STORM DEVELOPMENT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THE LOW AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CAP STORM DEVELOPMENT
DECREASING OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW GRADE MONSOON STORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WOULD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER ARIZONA
AND A RETURN TO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN NORTHEAST
ARIZONA. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC AND GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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