Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280352
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS FAVORABLE POSITION...RESULTING
IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE...A UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL KEEP US IN AN
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS LASTING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE ARIZONA MEXICO BORDER REGION WHICH TENDS TO LIMIT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE TROPICS...GRADUALLY LOWERING OUR
MOISTURE LEVELS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER GRADE MONSOON
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST DUE TO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING UP
INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA
WILL CONTINUE. MVFR VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN/DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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