Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
FXUS65 KFGZ 251629

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
929 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...For today, expect dry conditions and below normal
temperatures. A trough of low pressure approaching from the
northwest will bring increasing southwest winds to the area on
Monday. Stronger winds are expected Tuesday with increasing
chances for rain and snow Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Dry
weather returns to all of northern Arizona on Thursday.


.UPDATE...A few clouds and light snow showers remain in far
northeastern Arizona in the wake of a weak disturbance that moved
across far northern sections of the state last night. Otherwise,
clear and cold conditions cover the rest of the state. Current
forecast is on track with continued clearing in the northeast
this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /453 AM MST/...Satellite imagery reveals a
shortwave trough is bringing cloudy skies, and likely some light
snow, to northeast Arizona. This shortwave will continue to move
east, exiting the area after 5 am.

For today, expect another round of below normal daytime
temperatures - around 10 degrees below normal for late February.
Otherwise, dry weather is forecast along with light north to
northwest breezes.

On Monday, tightening surface pressure gradients will lead to
increasing southwest winds as the next low pressure system dives
down the West Coast. By Tuesday morning, the mid-level low center
is forecast to be near San Diego. This low, will move across
southern Arizona Tuesday through Wednesday morning while drawing
moisture into the area from the south. As a result, expect good
chances for rain and snow. The best chances are forecast along
and south of the Mogollon Rim. Clearing is expected to occur from
west to east on Wednesday, with chance for snow holding on the
longest in the vicinity of the White Mountains.

At this point, it looks like accumulating snow will be above the
4500-5000 foot level. In general, the current forecast calls for
1 to 6 inches of snow along and south of the Mogollon Rim, with 1
to 3 inches of snow north of the Mogollon Rim.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR for the next 24 hours with
clear skies and sfc winds variable to 10 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER... A return to calmer weather is expected for Sunday.
As the next winter weather system approaches, southwest winds will
increase Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...A cold front will move across the area
bringing gusty southwest winds along with widespread rain and snow
showers Tuesday through early Wednesday. Behind this system, dry and
calm weather will return Thursday.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.