Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 222229

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
329 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to strengthen over Arizona
through this Holiday weekend. Daytime temperatures will warm
enough Thanksgiving day and Friday to challenge long standing
high temperature records. Cooler and breezy conditions are
expected early next week.


A ridge of high pressure will continue to bring well above normal
temperatures and calm weather to northern Arizona through the
weekend. For Thursday, high temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees
above normal with a few sites challenging long standing high
temperature records. Temperatures will remain well above normal
for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with light winds and mostly sunny

By Monday, temperatures will cool slightly out ahead of a trough
of low pressure approaching the area from the Pacific Northwest.
This system will bring a cold frontal boundary south into our area
between Monday and Tuesday bringing near or just below normal
temperatures and the return of cloud cover.

Models still remain somewhat uncertain about the timing of
the trough with some models moving the feature into our area as
early as Monday afternoon and some models holding the trough off
until later into Tuesday. Models do agree that this trough will
pass mainly to our north with no significant chances for
precipitation expected. As we wait for models to come into better
agreement on the timing of this system, we can anticipate winds
increasing by Monday and Tuesday as the approaching system
increases pressure gradients with gusts to 35-40 mph possible
across the higher terrain.

By Wednesday, the winds will decrease behind the trough with
temperatures warming slightly but still remaining around normal.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions under mostly
clear skies and light winds. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to
bring unusually warm temperatures and dry conditions. Daytime high
temperatures will be between 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

Saturday through Monday...Unusually warm temperatures continue
Saturday and Sunday. On Monday, a dry cold front may bring cooler
temperatures and strong southwest winds.






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