Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 270246

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
746 PM MST Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Weak high pressure over Arizona will move east
tonight as a low pressure center off the Pacific Northwest Coast
moves southeast. This low will bring increasing winds and clouds
to northern Arizona Monday with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms by the afternoon. Drying conditions are expected
Tuesday night. Fair weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday
before another system arrives Friday and Saturday.


.UPDATE...The only forecast updates this evening were to adjust
cloud cover based on current satellite trends. Expect periods of
mid and high clouds overnight with coverage favoring generally
along and north of I-40.


.PREV DISCUSSION /338 PM MST/...High clouds are already increasing
this afternoon over northern Arizona ahead of the next low
pressure center beginning to move into the Pacific Northwest.
This low will move southeast and across Arizona Monday into
Tuesday. Model guidance continues to indicate snow levels will
fall rapidly to 5500-6000 feet as 700 mb temperatures cool to
around -4 to -6 C Monday night and Tuesday. This system will move
quickly and QPF amounts appear to be low.

The progressive pattern continues into the latter half of the week
with another transient ridge bringing a brief period of dry
weather Wednesday and Thursday. Then, another storm system moves
into northern Arizona from the northwest Friday into Saturday.
While confidence remains low on the details, guidance suggests
this system will have good jet support/upper level dynamics and
significant cold air advection as it moves into the area. Current
QPF amounts are low, however, a lot could change in the next few
days so stay tuned!


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Expect VFR conditions with
periods of high clouds through 18z Monday. Middle clouds will
increase aft 18z Monday, with lowering cigs during the afternoon.
Expect sct -shra/-shsn aft 20z Monday, producing brief MVFR
conditions, mainly from KFLG north to the UT border. SW sfc winds
10-20 kts gusting near 30 kts during the day Monday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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