Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 010930
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
230 AM PDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...There may be a few showers and thunderstorms
developing over eastern Nevada today. Then by Sunday the next
storm system will start to make its entrance with increasing winds
and a small chance for precipitation all across the Great Basin.
This system will provide a taste of winter, bringing much cooler
temperatures and a little valley snowfall Sunday night into early
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. Plenty of cloudiness around
the CWFA this morning. Convection dissipated over northern Elko
County around 8pm last evening. KLRX radar indicates a few showers
continuing to move east along the Oregon and Idaho borders. IR
imagery shows a well-defined cloud band over northwest Nevada,
paralleling an 85KT side jet inflow to the H3 main core now over
California. The models are in pretty good agreement for the short
term period.

A substantial short wave lobe will rotate around the parent low
spinning offshore of Washington state today. Showers and
thunderstorms should be limited mostly to Elko County. By Sunday,
as the low moves inland, the pressure gradient tightens and strong
winds are expected across northeast Nye and White Pine Counties,
where a Wind Advisory is in effect.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Saturday.

Model agreement is really good with the overall pattern, as they all depict
the 5-wave pattern as a long wave trof over the western US. They
are some disagreement with track of the main 500mb low Sunday
night through Monday, as well as how deep the two or possibly
three shortwaves that impact the area on Tuesday/Wednesday and
next Friday. All agree with the main frontal passage Sunday
evening before the system fully occludes on Monday. Where the sfc
and upper level lows end up, will determine where the wrap around
precip sets up. Still believe the sfc low ends up near the Great
Salt Lake by Monday afternoon, with the 500mb low in southeastern
ID. This places the highest pops in northeast NV, centered on the
Rubies, Independence, and Jarbidge mtns. With the system never
pulling the sub-tropical moisture into it, and the pattern
remaining progressive, don`t expect the wrap around shower
activity to last long or be wide spread like the last major
system...likely tapering off Monday evening. Another frontal
system in the northern Pacific will fall apart as it hit the
Pacific NW coast late Monday. This should enough lift to generate
a few showers near the ID/NV border as it progresses eastward on
Tuesday. Most areas remain dry Wednesday and Thursday, although a
very isolated shower is still possible in far northeast NV on
Wednesday as another very weak shortwave skirts to the north of
the state. The next shortwave/frontal system is expect to impact
the area on Friday. Once again, regardless of which model is used,
this system does not tap into sub-tropical moisture (sub-tropical
and polar jets remain separate), thus it should not be a major
precip producer. In fact, the GFS is producing little in the way
of QPF, while the EC is slightly deeper so it does generate some
precip.

As for winds, advisory level pre-frontal winds (southwesterly) in
central NV should finally switch to strong post-frontal winds are
Sunday night, and last through Monday, especially in those prone
areas(i.e. West Wendover, Tonopah, etc). Widespread advisory
level speeds or gusts (post-frontal) are not anticipated at this
time. Winds remain fairly light thereafter until they increase
ahead of the frontal system on Friday.

As for temps, a dramatic drop in high temps is expected on Monday
(40s and 50s) as 500mb heights and 700mb temps (nearly 3 SD for
700mb temps according to the NAEFS) plummet. High temps will
slowly improve thereafter, finally reaching average levels by
Friday. As for lows, 20s and 30s will be wide spread Monday and
Tuesday mornings. Some of the colder spots could fall into the
teens Tuesday morning. Most areas will be in the 30s to near 40
for the remainder of the mornings.

As for snow levels, expect them to be in the 5500 to 6500ft range
through Monday night, before increasing to 6500 to 7500ft on
Tuesday. By the time the Friday system arrives, snow levels will
be AOB 8000ft. Several inches of accumulation are possible above
7000ft on Monday, but no where near the amounts with the system
last week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected all site with the exception of
KWMC where haze or suspended dust will keep visibility around 5SM
until surface winds pick up later this morning. Gusty afternoon
sfc winds are expected, although gusts should remain at or below
25kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will mainly affect Elko
County today. Light shower activity will be possible across most
zones Sunday. The big concern could be the winds across Fire
Zones 455 and 457 Sunday as a low pressure system approaches from
the Pacific. Strong wind gusts over 50 mph will coincide with low
RH values, however White Pine county fuels are listed as
subcritical.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for Northeastern
Nye County-White Pine County.

&&

$$

92/85/85/92



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