Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 220449
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
849 PM PST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An active weather pattern will continue through much
of the week. A strong storm system today will bring high winds to
most of the state today along with valley rain and mountain snow
for northern and central Nevada. A colder air mass behind a
frontal boundary combined with lingering Pacific moisture will
bring snow to valleys floors Tuesday night and Wednesday. Periods
of snow will persist through Thursday before drier conditions
settle in for end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Updated most of the grids for the next 12 hrs to account
for the additional snow. Also issued a nowcast to address the
current situation. Post frontal lift continues to develop bands
of snow. The band is heaviest from Lander to Eureka to the SW
portion of Elko County. Moist NW flow and overall synoptic
features are keeping this band of snow in place. Eventually high
res RAP/HRRR/NAM show the band weakening across Elko County and
lifting north. Regardless, a couple more hours of snow will be
possible with additional accumulations of 1-2 inches.

This will continued to be monitored closely, since upstream
energy is crossing the Sierra and moving into Nevada. This may
act to keep the band stationary/slowly meander and provide further
lift/moisture for snow. If this occurs, advisories may be needed
for the morning commute along the I80 corridor.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 715 PM /

SYNOPSIS...An active weather pattern will continue through much
of the week. A strong storm system today will bring high winds to
most of the state today along with valley rain and mountain snow
for northern and central Nevada. A colder air mass behind a
frontal boundary combined with lingering Pacific moisture will
bring snow to valleys floors Tuesday night and Wednesday. Periods
of snow will persist through Thursday before drier conditions
settle in for end of the week.

UPDATE...Winds have substantially dropped and are below advisory
criteria. The Wind Advisory was allowed to expire. A few
locations along and south of Highway 50 remain gusty, but impacts
are minimal.

As the frontal band continues to slowly push south, light snow
accumulations are likely. Areas in upslope favored locations may
pick up 1 to 2 inches of snow. Elevations above 5500 ft could see
patchy slush or snow on roadways.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 216 PM /

SYNOPSIS...An active weather pattern will continue through much
of the week. A strong storm system today will bring high winds to
most of the state today along with valley rain and mountain snow
for northern and central Nevada. A colder air mass behind a
frontal boundary combined with lingering Pacific moisture will
bring snow to valleys floors Tuesday night and Wednesday. Periods
of snow will persist through Thursday before drier conditions
settle in for end of the week.

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday.

Today and Wednesday. An active weather pattern is persisting
across the silver state. Ample Pacific moisture, strong mid- level
jet and cold front will combine to bring additional valley rain
and mountain snow to northern and central NV today and tonight.
Sufficiently colder air behind the front will aid in transitioning
valley rain to snow across the northern half of the state by late
tonight into early Wednesday morning. A full transition to almost
all snow across the CWA is expected by Wednesday afternoon as the
front drops southward into central NV. In addition, strong jet
dynamics and instability aloft could spark a few thunderstorms
along the frontal boundary today.

The tightly packed gradient today with a strong jet overhead will
induce strong gusty winds across the state today and into the
evening hours. The winds will begin to weaken during the afternoon
and evening hours as the gradient slackens and the jet weakens. A
wind advisory remains in effect to the early evening.

Thursday. the active pattern will remain in place as pacific
moisture continues to stream across the silver state. The amount
of moisture will be less than today and wednesday with
accumulations of less than half an inch expected for most valleys.

Thursday night and Friday. The flow should switch from a wet
westerly to a relatively dry northwesterly flow effectively
cutting off the influx of pacific moisture. This should leave the
silver state with cloudy skies and some isolated showers.

Temperatures will be dropping as the cold air intrudes across the
silver state with highs of 30`s to 40`s on Wednesday falling into
the 20`s to 30`s on Friday. Lows will follow a similar trend with
lows tonight of 20`s to low 30`s falling into negative to positive
single digits to teens on thursday.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday. Cold and unsettled
weather will continue through the extended period. Some light
snow showers possible over the weekend before next major upper
trough drops into the region from the north Sunday night and
Monday. This system could bring up to several inches of snow to
the valleys. This system exits the region late Monday with
lingering snow showers through Tuesday.

AVIATION...Snow showers will bring MVFR or lower conditions at
times next 24 hours, except at KTPH where VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. Strong gusty southwest winds will diminish
rapidly after 01z.

HYDROLOGY...Light to moderate rain showers over northern NV today
will continue to cause areas of lowland flooding over the saturated
soils with high flows continuing in some smaller streams.
Therefore extended the areal flood warning for Elko county and
northern Lander and northern Eureka counties through Wednesday
morning. Martin creek in Paradise Valley has dropped into minor
flood stage today and will continue to drop. The flood crest on
the Humboldt River is now just downstream of Comus and is still
expected to reach Winnemucca on thursday in moderate flood stage.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

94/99


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