Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 101625
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
925 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2014

SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THURSDAY MORNING
WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND NORTHERN NEVADA
BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A
LITTLE...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AGAIN.
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 90S
TO LOW 100S. STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN LOWER ATMOSPHERE SO BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FOR MOST SITES TODAY. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 318 AM /



SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. BIGGEST SLUG OF
MONSOON DEWPOINTS HAS MOVED NORTH A LITTLE BUT STILL...PW`S IN THE
0.75" TO OVER ONE INCH WILL ALLOW MOST STORMS TO FORM IN CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN NEVADA...WITH OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS.
STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED...LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING...BUT WILL NOT
ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WEDNESDAY RADAR SHOWED A STORM TOTAL
ESTIMATE OF THREE INCHES IN ONE AREA NEAR THE RUBIES...BUT BELIEVE
THIS TO FAR...FAR...OVERDONE. MORE LIKELY WAS OVER AN INCH AND
WILL KEEP ANY EYE OUT FOR SUCH THINGS TODAY.

FRIDAY...LOOKING FOR A DRY PUSH FROM THE SOUTH WHICH WILL PUSH
THE CONVECTION COVERAGE AREA WELL NORTH TO MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. FRIDAY EVENING...EVEN FURTHER NORTH TO MOSTLY
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES. THIS IS MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. NOT DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS...BUT WE`LL TAKE IT.

TEMPS ON THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SIDE AGAIN...WITH A TEMPORARY COOL
DOWN WHEN CLOUDS FORM OVER PARTICULAR SPOTS...BUT MINS WILL BE UP
WITH CLOUD COVER. WINDS LIGHT EXCEPT GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH IN
OUTFLOWS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFF THE STABLE AND DRY EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PREDOMINATE SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE CENTER BUILDS NORTHWEST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARDS
NEVADA. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS IN NORTHERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY...THE AREA
WHERE PW`S WILL STILL BE NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN 1/2 INCH. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN HOT. RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEVADA BY
SUNDAY WITH HOTTER WEATHER...TEMPS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100
IN MANY VALLEYS...BUT LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS AS PW`S WILL HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR OR BELOW 1/2 INCH BY THEN IN MOST AREAS. BEST
CHANCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. COULD BE SOME SIGNIFICANT DRY LIGHTNING WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT RIGHT NOW THE THRUST OF THE ENERGY APPEARS TO STAY
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. THAT SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH MONDAY AND
THE RIDGE CENTER REMAINS OVER NEVADA AS IT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING
WHAT MAY BE THE HOTTEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW 100S POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE EXTREME
HEAT COMBINED WITH A BIT OF MOISTURE INFLUX MAY RESULT IN A MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA. RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN
NORTHERN NEVADA...WHICH SHOULD ALSO CUT THE MOISTURE DOWN A BIT IN
NORTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS REDUCE THE THUNDER THREAT (THOUGH
FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MAY NEGATE THAT). ON WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO HAVE RECENTERED ITSELF OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH A DRIER NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF NEVADA WHICH WOULD LIKELY REDUCE THE THUNDER THREAT
FURTHER. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS REGARD BY THURSDAY NEXT WEEK
EITHER. OVERALL...NO HUGE THUNDERSTORM DAYS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON,
WET OR DRY, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. RCM

AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVERALL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING BY
17Z AND BECOME RELATIVELY COMMON BY 21Z. DO NOT AT THIS TIME
EXPECT THEM TO BE QUITE AS NUMEROUS AS YESTERDAY BUT ANY STORM MAY
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD START TO WANE BY SUNSET. RCM

FIRE WEATHER...MORE WET THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE FIRE
DISTRICT. ISOLATED STORMS AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN SCARS. RH`S WILL BE HIGH...WITH GOOD
RECOVERY. WITH TIGHT RAIN CORES...AGAIN...ANY LIGHTNING STRAYING
FROM THE MAIN STORM CELLS WILL ACT AS DRY LIGHTNING DEPENDING ON
WHERE IT STRIKES. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...EXCEPT
FOR ERRATIC DIRECTIONS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH NEAR STORMS OR
VIRGA. THIS SITUATION WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY...A
DRY SURGE FROM THE SOUTH WILL PUSH THE STORM COVERAGE AREA
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FRIDAY EVENING...MOSTLY OVER
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...HOT AND DRY. TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S. STARTING MID WEEK...MORE MONSOON MOISTURE...AND MORE STORMS
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

90/98/93/93/98




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