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000
FXUS65 KLKN 180925
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
225 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AS ONE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR
REGION THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ONE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD US FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION YESTERDAY IS MOVING
EASTWARD AT PRESENT WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND LESS CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS ALSO ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...SO
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS OUR AREA EXCEPT NEAR THE
UTAH BORDER...WITH SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES EARLY WILL BE COOL
BUT NOT BAD FOR MAY THANKS TO LINGERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...THEN SHOULD WARM UP A BIT BETTER THAN WHAT MOST PLACES SAW
YESTERDAY. NEXT TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH LATE TODAY WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
GOOD AS WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY BUT SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM.
DECENT LITTLE VORT MAX THEN SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH COULD
BRING A SLIGHTLY MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN THANKS TO BETTER
FORCING. BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...HAVE BEST POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE KEPT UP BY
CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS. TROUGH AND VORTMAX SLOWS ITS PROGRESS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO EARLIER GUIDANCE SO ALLOWED FOR
SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON
THAN WE HAD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...WITH READINGS MORE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY. RCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A 500 MB CLOSED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH SIGNIFICANT LOBE
ROTATING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA. UPPER RIDGE OVER FAR WESTERN
US WILL BUILD OVER NEVADA AS THIS LOBE MOVES SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS HOWEVER IS QUITE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT KICKER LOW
OVER THE OCEANIC PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND WETTER AIR APPEARS
TO ENTER THE GREAT BASIN. AT LEAST...THAT IS WHAT ONE WOULD THINK
WOULD HAPPEN. ALL THE MODELS HAVE PATHETIC RH AND QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARED FAR TOO HIGH...APPROACHING LIKELY...AND
SO HAVE REDUCED THEM TO LOW CHANCE LARGELY DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES
AND UNCERTAINTY THAT EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS. SOME INSTABILITY
MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THERE IS PRECIP.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...PRECIP MAY FALL AS A MIX OR RAIN/SNOW ABOVE
ABOUT 7000 FEET.

TEMPS WOULD RISE...EXCEPT FOR THE COOLER MARITIME AIR COMING
IN...SO TEMPS WILL PRETTY MUCH HOLD STEADY.

AGAIN...THINGS WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SO
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED FOR ALL SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. KWMC...KEKO...AND KELY WILL HAVE VCTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MAINLY EASTERN
NEVADA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME WETTING RAINS EXPECTED SO
LITTLE IF ANY CONCERN. RH`S RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

93/98/98/93