Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 250054
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
454 PM PST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE THERE IS A SHIELD OF
CLOUDS FROM UTAH TO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DELIVER A BATCH OF WINTRY WEATHER THIS EVENING....OVER NIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER NIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO SNOW...EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS...BLOWING SNOW AND BRUTALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...DECIDED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST DUE TO RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET OBSERVATIONS. PLACES IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY HAVE ALREADY SEEN
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 65 MPH. KMWC GUSTED TO 59 MPH AND CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW. RAISED WIND GUSTS GRIDS...SO POINT/CLICK WOULD READ
HIGHER GUSTS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
REST OF EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME LIGHTNING MAY BE
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT
IN WXGRIDS. LOCALIZED BLIZZ CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE RIGHT
NEAR THE FRONT. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 215 PM /

SYNOPSIS...ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE THERE IS A SHIELD OF
CLOUDS FROM UTAH TO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DELIVER A BATCH OF WINTRY WEATHER THIS EVENING....OVER NIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER NIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO SNOW...EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS...BLOWING SNOW AND BRUTALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS ADVERTISED...EXPECTING A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER STORM THIS EVENING...OVER NIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. THE NAM...THE GFS AND THE RAP ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT
BRINGING THE QPF INTO THE LKN CWA AFTER 4 PM TODAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER NE NV...WHEREAS THE ECMWF INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS ARE ROUGHLY 50 TO
100 MILES SOUTH OF THE GFS MEAN. LITTLE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES LIKE THIS
WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN FINAL SNOW TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE NCEP
RMOP IS WELL INTO BLUE TERRITORY EVEN AT 24 HRS. BUT THE DYNAMICS
ARE IN PLACE FOR A SNOW AND WIND EVENT. KEPT HEADLINES IN
PLACE...BUT ADDED AN NPW FOR NORTHERN NYE. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTING CAA AND ROBUST NORTHERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. EC AND GFS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN.  EXPECT VERY COLD
AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER ACROSS NEVADA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO-NEVADA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT. THE VERY COLD
PART OF THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SINCE THE AIRMASS IS COLD AND WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EXPECT JUST MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE FAVORABLE AREAS THROUGH MONDAY.
THE COLD AIRMASS IS REINFORCED AND CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE
CWA AS THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR -20C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH SNOW COVER...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY
IN THE LOW 20S AND TUESDAY WILL BE LUCKY TO MAKE IT TO THE 20 DEGREE
MARK. HAVE DROP LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS SHOULD BE -15 BELOW ZERO TO NEAR ZERO MOST
LOCATIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. JH

AVIATION...CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO WMC AROUND 01-02Z...EKO 03-04Z AND AROUND ELY 05-06Z.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...S/SW WINDS OF 15 TO 25KTS WITH G40KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR/LIFR IN SN/BLSN AT
KWMC...KEKO AND KELY BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND 05Z...STRONG GUSTY NE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT TPH WILL
DEVELOP. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY...THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...EXPECTING SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE ON THE RUNWAYS OF KEKO. THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE
EVENT...AND SNOW IS VISIBLE OVER NE NV ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGE.
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO THE AVIATION CUSTOMERS WILL
INCLUDE...OBSCURED MT TOPS...LIGHT TO OCNL MODERATE TURBULENCE
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ICING. THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT SLC ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...POSSIBLY IMPACTING COMMERCIAL TRAFFIC BETWEEN
EKO AND SLC.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-
WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS
AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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