Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 052218
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
318 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND BEGINNING NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN TREND COOLER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT MOST OF THIS EVENINGS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY WHERE IT HAS GENERALLY BEEN THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
HELP PUSH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NEVADA ON MONDAY
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NORTHEASTERN NEVADA WILL TREND
DRIER AND MORE STABLE ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL HANGING ONTO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS. UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MOST
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA INTO TUESDAY EVENING. MOST
ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN;
HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL LOW.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 576DM 500MB LOW 200 MILES OFF THE CENTRAL
CA COAST AND A WEAK..NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB RIDGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN NV. THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWNS COMPLETELY ON WED AS THE
500MB LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CA COAST. ANOTHER VORT SWINGS
AROUND THE LOW ON THURSDAY CAUSING IT TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THURSDAY AS A 571-573DM LOW. THE
PLACEMENT OF LANDFALL HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSRUNS.
THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER TROF DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST
WHICH INCREASES THE FLOW ALOFT OUT THE SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWS THE
RIDGE OFF THE OUR SOUTHEAST TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THIS TROF FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS OR THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH RESULTS IN 3-5DM HIGHER 500MB HEIGHTS OVER
THE CWA THAN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. BY MONDAY..THE GFS
DEVELOPS A 576DM 500MB LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST WHILE THE
ECMWF LIFTS THE TROF NORTHEASTWARD INTO OREGON. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCE NOTED ABOVE...THEY AGREE WITH FALLING 500MB HEIGHTS AND
A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN PARTICULAR...FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...THE HIGHEST OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY AS A VORT LOBE ROTATES
AROUND THE THE UPPER LEVEL OVER WESTERN NV. THEREFORE EXTREME
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD SEE SOME DECENT QPF WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY DEPENDING OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND IF
THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZE LIKE THE GFS INDICATES. AFTER
WED...PRECIP CHANCES BECOMES CONFINE TO MOSTLY HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTY MTN TOPS WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH DRY OUT. PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH MAJORITY OF CWA DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...FALLING HEIGHTS MEANS FALLING TEMPS...AND THEY
SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. EXPECT THE
SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

 .AVIATION...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24HRS
WITH JUST A STRATOCU DECK DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IMPACTING THE TERMINALS.
TOMORROW...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY SO ONLY EXPECTING
AFTERNOON TS DEVELOPING NEAR TPH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MAIN THUNDERSTORM FOCUS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHERN 469 AND 470. ON MONDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO
ZONES 457 455 AND SOUTHERN 454. ON WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY PICKS UP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ZONES AND DIMINISHES ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/85/85/96



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