Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 252046

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
146 PM PDT Mon Jul 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Hot. Dry. It`s mid summer and the temperatures could
easily become dangerous this week. Not much cooling until later
this week when some monsoon moisture may creep in, firing up some
thunderstorms, first over eastern Nevada, then increasing over
northern Nevada.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. Hot. Dry. Limited
convection as the heat just pops some cumulus over the higher
terrain of central and eastern Nevada in the afternoons. Calls to
locals and outside web cams show mainly cumulus humilis. Tough to
get enough dewpoints to rise to the LCL of 22000 feet and then
they get brutally suppressed by the ridge aloft. This situation
remains through the short term, although a little more moisture
creeps in from the south each period as the monsoon off to the
east tries to drift west. Expect increase in cumulus each day.
Temps climb under the mocking sun. Yesterday`s high in the
Jarbidge Wilderness town of Charleston was 95. Further south, in
northeast Nye Count, there is a Heat Advisory in effect through
Friday for highs of 100 or more. Will cool off at night in the
dryness and elevation but will quickly climb after sunrise each

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday

Persistent high will remain in place till midweek producing Hot
and dry conditions. Starting Thursday the high will begin to
weaken which will allow a pacific northwest trough to deepen
across the west coast on friday and saturday. The shift in the
pattern will bring an influx of monsoon moisture from the south.
This will first intrude into White Pine and northern Nye counties
late Thursday and Friday before reaching Elko County late Friday.
Dry thunderstorms are likely to develop initially Friday and
Saturday before wet thunderstorms become more dominant as monsoon
moisture deepens across the state. The gradient will tighten with
the deepening trough which will cause breezy afternoon winds
during the weekend. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 90`s
and lower 100s in many valley locations. This is especially
prominent in northeastern Nye county which has a heat advisory
through Friday.


.AVIATION...VFR continues with winds generally below 15 knots at
all sites are expected through Monday. Be aware that KELY will
have a high density altitude due to the high temperatures.


.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry through the initial forecast period.
Winds on the light side but with isolated gusty spots in the
afternoons due to heat and local drainage patterns. Min rh`s will
be in the single digits with very poor recovery rh`s to only the
20s in most places. High temps will approach or exceed 100 in many
valleys and the 90s in the mountains. Northeast Nye County...east
portion of fire zone 457...has a Heat Advisory through Friday
afternoon for highs exceeding 100 degrees. Nighttime lows will
cool off but will rapidly warm up again after sunrise. Precip is
not likely at all until late Thursday. Weak monsoon push starts
then with isolated dry storms thursday, changing to more hybrid
Friday, and then probably mostly wet by saturday/sunday. Area
coverage grows from 455/457 Thursday into most of northern Nevada
by the weekend. Still isolated within those areas. We may be
looking at a red flag or fire wx watch by Thursday. Stay tuned.


Heat Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for Northeastern Nye County.



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