Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 312243
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
343 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEKEND. MOST
PRECIPITATION BELOW 6000 FEET WILL BE RAIN THIS WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHER ELEVATIONS RECEIVING 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW. DRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH AN 80KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER NEVADA AT THIS TIME. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE THIS
EVENING...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WIND
GUST WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEVADA...WITH SOME BLOWING DUST MAKING
ITS WAY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN MOST HUMBOLDT COUNTY LATER
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF
OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY 12Z SAT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE SANTA ROSA
MTS AND WMC. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET TONIGHT WITH
THE INITIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS EXPAND EAST TO THE RUBY MTS
BY 18Z SAT...ALSO COVERING LANDER EUREKA NORTHERN NYE AND MOST OF
WHITE PINE COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH CENTERS OVER
NEVADA. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL BY SUNSET...WITH 1-3 TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR QPF LIKELY IN MOST AREAS. ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ON ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE
6000 FEET THROUGH NOON SATURDAY...LOWERING TO VALLEY FLOORS AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY OVER MAINLY THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF ELKO COUNTY AND
POSSIBLY WHITE PINE COUNTY. DRY MONDAY WITH COLD AIR REMAINING
OVER THE REGION DUE TO COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DEPARTING STORM WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO COOL NW FLOW...BUT WILL
WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA DURING THE
PERIOD WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. BY
THURSDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND A DRIER SW FLOW
DEVELOPS.


&&

.AVIATION...DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING KWMC SEEING VCSH LATE THIS EVENING. A
BKN/OVC DECK BETWEEN 15-20K WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN KELY/KTPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. DUST WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT SOME TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING POSSIBLE MVFR AND ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF IFR TO ALL
TERMINALS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY.

&&

$$

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