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436
FXUS63 KLMK 300515
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
115 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1015 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Updated the forecast to pull POPs a little further south into
central KY late this evening.  The latest high-res models indicate
the complex of showers/storms over western KY should survive as it
moves east into our region.  The consensus is for it to make it as
far east as the I-65 corridor around midnight and then diminish so
updated POPs to reflect that.  Also made minor tweaks to add more
sky cover for late evening and some light patchy fog over south
central KY where a weak fog signal in the evening models has
emerged.  Lows tonight still look to range through the upper
50s/lower 60s.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Scattered cumulus clouds have developed this afternoon and
temperatures have risen into the upper 70s to lower 80s. As we go
into the evening hours, clouds will increase over southern IN and
north central KY as a weak frontal boundary approaches. Isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop
along this boundary this evening. These should mainly affect
southern IN, but a few may slide south of the Ohio River into KY. As
the boundary heads eastward into the overnight hours, the showers
should dissipate.

The frontal boundary will sag into southeastern central KY by
afternoon on Tuesday. Precipitation should again develop along it
Tuesday afternoon, which may affect the Lake Cumberland area.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the day for the rest
of the region. However, Tuesday night another weak cold front and
wave rounding the base of the upper level trough will bring a
renewed chance for scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms.

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

A weak cold front will continue to cross central KY on Wednesday
with the chance for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
continuing. These should move out by Wednesday afternoon or early
evening with surface high pressure building in for the overnight
hours. This high pressure will bring dry weather through at least
Thursday morning and for much of the region through the afternoon
hours as well.

Thursday night into the weekend will become much more unsettled as a
couple of disturbance work their way through the zonal flow aloft
and a cold front slowly sinks south into the lower Ohio Valley.
Currently the most widespread rain chances look to be Friday night
into Saturday. As noted in the previous discussion, precipitable
water values will rise into the 1.75-2" range this weekend. Very
saturated soundings suggest we could see some heavy rainfall this
weekend with some minor flooding issues not out of the question.
Thus, the setup for this system bears watching this week. The front
does look to sink south of the area Sunday which would bring drier
weather to round out the weekend.

Temperatures through the long term period will be near normal for
this time of year with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows
in the upper 50s to 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

Have a line of showers approaching SDF/BWG, but the northern half of
that line is dissipating quickly. It did just bring a brief gust of
winds from the west southwest, but that will die down soon and
return to a southwest flow. Next concern would be any fog potential
tonight. BWG stands the best chance with a little higher dewpoint
now, and those rain showers coming. They may stay too mixed though,
so have just a tempo group for MVFR vsby around daybreak. Winds will
become westerly during the afternoon Tuesday, potentially causing
some traffic issues at SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...AMS
Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
Aviation...RJS