Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 281050
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
650 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OUT OF OUR AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HRS AS A RESULT WITH TEMPS ON THE REBOUND IN RETURN FLOW.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  LOW TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH.  AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PULL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY.  AT THE
SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST PUSHING
MOISTURE/FORCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WHILE MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SEEMS CERTAIN, A CLEAR TRIGGER AND GOOD FORCING ARE
QUESTIONABLE AND THE OHIO VALLEY MAY STAY LARGELY CAPPED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.  STILL MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF POPS MAINLY SAT AFTERNOON
OVER THE REGION.  THUS, WILL CONTINUE 20-30% CHANCES POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MID-WEEK ONWARD
THEN TRENDS BELOW AVERAGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF WILL DRAW
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WITH THE WEAK/BAGGY FLOW
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE
FLOW IS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR LATE SUMMER
LEVELS...SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAYBE A STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT HANGS ON THROUGH MONDAY AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND EVENTUAL
TRACK OF ERIKA. FOR THE SAKE OF FORECAST CONTINUITY UNTIL SIGNALS
BECOME CLEARER...KEPT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH CONCEIVABLY A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL...OR
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
URBAN CORES. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE AUGUST AS DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BWG VSBY COULD STILL DROP BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR/IFR CAT. OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH
SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.  MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AMS
LONG TERM.........ZBT
AVIATION..........AMS


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