Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 300014 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY...BUT GENERALLY UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING. A SOLID
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT MAY SHIFT
SUCH THAT SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL SEE A DECREASE. A COASTAL EDDY
SHOULD FORM OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES TONIGHT. WHILE
THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS...CANNOT SEE A SOLID
STRATUS DECK FORMING SINCE THERE IS NO INVERSION TO SPEAK OF. THE
SLO INTERIOR VALLEYS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN NOT FOR A RETURN OF
DENSE FOG.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH INTO YUMA ARIZONA TOMORROW AND SETTLE THERE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW AT MID-LEVELS ON FRIDAY. WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OVER LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. SINCE THE FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY...THE BACKSIDE OF THE SAN
GABRIEL RANGE...INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS...HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOS ANGELES METRO AREA COULD SEE A LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH
DOWNSLOPING DESCENDING FLOW ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING A COOLER AIRMASS...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BATTLE AGAINST
IT. BEST BET IS GENERAL COOLING...BUT LESS SO NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS.

THE TROUGH PUSHES DUE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A
WINDOW OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN MORE
OFFSHORE AND THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN EXPERIENCES NORTHEAST FLOW. AT
THIS POINT...LOW END ADVISORIES LOOK PROBABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS. SLO AND SBA COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE SOME NORTHEAST
FLOW...BUT OF A MUCH WEAKER VARIETY. MEANWHILE AS THE TROUGH GOES TO
THE SOUTH...A RIDGE ALOFT NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALL
ADD UP TO A WARM WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AS
THE SUPER BOWL CHEERS FILL THE AIR.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (ESPECIALLY FOR JANUARY)
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN THERE FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREDOMINATELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORMAL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE AROUND
NEUTRAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS TO
MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0010Z.

AT 2305Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE
INVERSION TOP AT 800 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AT KPRB...WHERE THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MAINLY MID AND HI CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
AIRFIELDS THRU FRI. PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING AT KSBP...KLAX AND KLGB. IN ADDITION...LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CIGS SHOULD AFFECT KLAX AND KLGB ON FRI...WITH
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY MID AND HI CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI MORNING. A PERIOD OF
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE IS
ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY MID
AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM.

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL NOT REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

INNER WATERS...FROM BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU...LOCAL NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





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