Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KLOX 291608
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


















USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.