Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 071142
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

...MARINE AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR A COOLING TREND...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUN-WED)

A LARGE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.

WINDS ARE THE BIG ISSUE AS A VERY LARGE SFC HIGH OVER UTAH WILL
BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW. KDAG GRAD
GOES FROM -6 MB THIS MORNING TO AN IMPRESSIVE -9 MB MON MORNING
AND THEN DOWN TO "ONLY" 7 MB TUESDAY AND FINALLY LOWERING TO -4 MB
WED. THE KBFL GRAD PEAKS AT -5 MB TODAY AND THEN LOWERS STEADILY
THROUGH WED. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT BUT
ENOUGH TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO MUCH OF LA AND VTA
COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT
INTERSECTS WITH THE BEST OFFSHORE SFC PUSH THERE WILL BE WARNING
LEVEL GUSTS TO 60 MPH FROM THE L.A. MTNS NEAR CASTAIC THROUGH THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY AND DOWN THROUGH CANEJO VLY. THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE VENTURA COUNTY MTNS AND THE WEST HALF OF THE SANTA MONICA
MTNS WILL ALSO SEE WARNING GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES START FOR ALL OF
LA AND VTA COUNTIES SAVE FOR THE ANTELOPE AND SAN GABRIEL VLYS AT
600 AM AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARNINGS WILL START
AT 6PM THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ADVISORY
FREE WITH ONLY 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN ALMOST ALL OF THE COASTS
AND VLYS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND THERE MAY WELL BE A FEW READINGS
OF 90 OR 91. TODAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST OF THE NEXT FOUR WITH
MOST COASTS AND VLYS WITHIN IN TWO DEGREES OF 80. MAX TEMPS MON
AND WED WILL BE SIMILAR WITH MOSTLY MID 80S. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY
WILL BE 12 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE WIND AND THE DRY
AIR/CLEAR SKIES. WIND SHELTERED AREAS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
WINDY AREAS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME
AREAS WILL HAVE WIDELY DESPERATE MIN TEMPS WITHIN A MILE OF EACH
OTHER.

.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BOTH THU AND FRI AND MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. MDLS NOW FORECASTING A
DRY TROF TO PASS OVERHEAD SAT AND SUN BUT WITH MINIMAL CLOUDS AND
NO RAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BUT WILL STILL BE 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EVEN BY SATURDAY.

LONG RANGE XTND FCST MDLS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDS UNTIL
NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH WITH A PATTERN SHIFT ARRIVING SOME TIME
AROUND THE FIRST OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION... 07/12Z.

AT 12Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS ABOUT 800 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  THERE IS A
FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB 14Z-18Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS
A FORTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE AT TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
THROUGH 18Z. ANY EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.

KBUR... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE... 07/230 AM.

NORTHEAST WINDS MAY REDEVELOP THIS MORNING NEARSHORE FROM VENTURA
HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS. THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MORE LIKELY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS
NEARSHORE ESPECIALLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS.

&&

.FIRE... 06/800 PM.

A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MONDAY
BRINGING A VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES OVER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. BESIDES THE WINDY CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGET FORECASTED TO BE OVER
-9 MB BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH WIND WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE SANTA
MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY BEGINNING 6 PM SUNDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. EXPECT HIGH END WIND ADVISORIES
FOR THE OTHER COAST AND VALLEYS TO FOLLOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS LOS ANGELES COASTAL AREAS WILL BE LIMITED TO BETWEEN THE
HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU...AND FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TEENS
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH POOR RECOVERIES TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH OVER 60 MPH GUSTS FOR THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS
FROM SIMI VALLEY TO NEWBURY PARK.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PST
      MONDAY FOR ZONES 40-41. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
      AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547-548. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST MONDAY FOR ZONES
      44-547. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
      45-46-53-54. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM
      PST MONDAY FOR ZONES 45-46-53-54. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
FIRE...HALL
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


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