Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 240416
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1116 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated to included the 06z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 856 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...01Z Surface analysis places a cold front from Paris,
TN through Memphis and East Arkansas. Showers and thunderstorms
associated with instability along and ahead of the cold front have
greatly diminished over the past couple of hours. As a result, the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch along with the Flash Flood Watch were
cancelled given current trends. Some additional adjustments to
rain chances for the remainder of the night will be made to
account for short term trends and will continue to monitor trends
for possible fog development towards morning if some clearing can
occur.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Lingering showers from the remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy
continue across portions of Northeast Mississippi, generally
southeast of an Iuka to Houston, Mississippi line. Meanwhile, the
atmosphere has quickly recovered across Northeast Arkansas behind
the departing tropical system. CAPE values are running around 4500
J/kg with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Showers and
thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front are beginning to
push into this warm and juicy airmass. This will allow for these
storms to quickly become severe. Damaging winds will be the main
threat from these storms. Expect these storms to be entering into
the Memphis Metro Area between 5-6 PM CDT before continuing
southward into Northwest Mississippi. Believe the line will really
start moving quickly as a cold pool develops thus the line could
be south of the CWA by the late evening hours. Will hold onto the
Flash Flood Watch for now as some flash flooding could occur in
areas that received the heaviest rain from Cindy.

Drier air will gradually filter into the Mid-South over the
weekend as surface high pressure builds into the area from the
north. Can`t rule out some isolated showers and thunderstorms
on Saturday across North Mississippi as the higher dewpoints may
linger across the region. However, do expect rain free conditions
for the remainder of the weekend into the middle of next week. The
one caveat will be that a MCS could develop in northwest flow
aloft Sunday Night across Southwest Missouri and move
southeastward skirting northern portions of the Mid-South on
Monday.

High temperatures will be in the 80s with lows ranging from the
mid 50s to the mid 60s from Saturday through Wednesday. Low
humidity will make it feel pleasant outside. Humidity levels will
begin to creep back up by Wednesday as the surface high pushes
east allowing winds to turn around to the south. Chances for
diurnal convection will begin to occur on Thursday.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

A few rain showers continue across northeast MS late this evening
but should have minimal operational impact. This activity will
continue to move off to the south and east as a cold front moves
across the Mid-South. Periods of MVFR ceilings are expected at
KTUP through mid-morning with generally VFR conditions at the
remaining forecast terminals. Patchy fog will be possible
overnight should skies briefly clear out, but the cirrus canopy
should preclude a widespread fog potential. Expect light winds
this evening becoming north at 7-10 kts early Saturday.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$



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