Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 120350
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
950 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER MISSOURI THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...BUT SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH SOME CLEARING
LATE AROSS WESTERN ZONES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL MS WHILE A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
IL. THIS SCENARIO PROVIDED A STRONG N-S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
A DEFINED NE WIND THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY
PROVIDING A MORE POLAR-LIKE AIRMASS INTO SATURDAY. A RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND A SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND BE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTH
WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MORE DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN LATER FORECASTS.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN US PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SWITCHING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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