Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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772
FXUS64 KMEG 230935
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
335 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The upper-level cyclone responsible for the latest round of
inclement weather is moving rapidly east into the Carolinas early
this morning. Subsidence will increase across the region in its
wake, resulting in generally benign weather conditions across the
Mid-South with no precipitation in the forecast today or tomorrow.
Northwest winds on the backside of the departing surface low will
remain gusty this morning, especially east of the Mississippi
River. However, winds will diminish this afternoon, becoming light
and variable after sunset. Cold advection will persist throughout
the day and we`ll still see a fair amount of cloud cover. This
will keep temperatures in the low/mid 50s in most areas this
afternoon.

Light winds, clearing skies, and drier are will promote
radiational cooling tonight. Temperatures are forecast to drop
into the mid 30s, with a few areas possibly falling below
freezing around sunrise. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will
develop on Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts east. South winds will
respond to a tightening pressure gradient over the Central
Plains, increasing to 15-20 mph, with higher gusts. Winds may
still need to be increased further given the strong gradient
anticipated in the 925-850 mb layer. Expect highs on Tuesday in
the low/mid 60s.

A shortwave trough and attendant surface low will move northeast
into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday, dragging a cold front
across the Mid-South. Winds will shift from the west and cooler
temperatures will advect into the area. Rain chances will
generally be confined to northeast MS (in the Tupelo area) during
the morning hours on Wednesday. If any showers do develop, they
are expected to move quickly east by afternoon.

Cooler temperatures and drier air will highlight the latter part
of the forecast period. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will
range from the mid 40s to near 50 degrees, with overnight lows
in the upper 20s and lower 30s. A reinforcing cold front is
anticipated early in the weekend. This should knock temperatures
down further, with highs likely in the 40s (at best). Some of the
latest guidance is coming in a bit colder, suggesting some areas
may not get out of the 30s.

Guidance remains dry during this time, although there are several
discernible shortwave troughs progged to move across the region. A
few of the model solutions are hinting at some light QPF on Sunday,
but confidence is low that this will materialize given the dry
low-level air. Will continue to monitor the potential for light
precipitation on Sunday, but will keep the forecast dry at this
time.

Johnson

&&

.AVIATION...
06z TAFs

MVFR cigs will be common overnight at all TAF sites except KTUP
where IFR cigs will likely develop. There may be a period of VFR
conditions early in the forecast period...but expecting this to
fill back in over the next hour or so. There remains uncertainty
regarding overall cloud cover for the remainder of tonight. Winds
remain strong and gusty from the northwest.

MVFR cigs should persist through Monday at KMKL and KTUP but
should improve to VFR later in the afternoon at both KJBR and
KMEM. Strong and gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish
through the day.

Winds should become light and variable by Monday evening with VFR
cigs developing at all locations by mid evening. There may be some
vsby reductions in fog late in the forecast period in fog.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$



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