Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 310500
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PREDOMINATELY DRY AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOR COOLER MORNING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND... ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S. THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL LOWER BY LATE TUESDAY OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SOLUTION IS A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM
YESTERDAY/S ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WHICH BUILT THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE
NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER...GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 14Z-00Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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