Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 241338 AAC
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
738 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. WHILE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SKIES CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST. UPDATED
THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

JCL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS TO SPEED UP CLEARING OF
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TODAY BASED ON LATEST MODELS AND CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS.

JCL

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/ .

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE TN RIVER AROUND
SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST AR. THE WIND WAS THE
BIGGEST WEATHER CONCERN THIS MORNING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WAS CAUSING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. WINDS HAVE REALLY PICKED UP OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
FROM THE MS RIVER DELTA ACROSS NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO
PORTIONS OF WEST TN. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MPH. ONLY
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT IF ANY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD THIS
MORNING WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS SPEEDS. KEPT
THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THE EXCEPTION WAS A
SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MS FROM AROUND TUPELO SOUTHWARD WHERE THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE
ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED. LEFT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
TN RIVER SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE MS / AL BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN CLEARING FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING SOME THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND WE HAVE SEEN THIS NOVEMBER...BELOW NORMAL. FOLLOWING MORNING
LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

ON WEDNESDAY...ADDED A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TN AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES
NEAR THE AREA. ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
CLIPPER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY
FOR THANKSGIVING.

THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO WHAT THE GFS HAS BEEN FORECASTING
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THAT IS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THIS
SPELLS A WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

LOW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST SATURDAY. LEFT IN A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS BRINGS A
COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE
NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...BLENDED
THE MODELS WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH MKL AND TUP SHORTLY WITH
WIND COMPONENT BACKING TO WESTERLY AFTER PASSAGE. GUSTINESS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
25KT ROUTINELY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. SCT LOW CIGS...DOWN TO
2300 FT HAVE BEEN NOTED IN SOME OBS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OVC
DECK IS HOVERING BETWEEN 3000-4000KT. CIGS SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.
WINDS DROP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.

TVT

30

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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