Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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908
FXUS64 KMEG 211808
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1208 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1018 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

UPDATE...

Update to lower high temperatures a few degrees and lower pops
west of the Mississippi River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level low pressure system now over the Arklatex region
will continue to move slowly southeast today. This will keep
cloudy skies in place with the greatest rain chances focused
across northeast Mississippi this afternoon. Updated to lower high
temperatures due to the abundance of clouds and rainfall. In
addition...lowered afternoon pops west of the Mississippi River as
better forcing focuses eastward.

Updated forecast products will be issued shortly.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 218 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

An area of rain continues to spread eastward across the Mid-South
early this morning. The rain is associated with an upper level
low pressure system that will track eastward from East Texas into
Louisiana by late this afternoon. As a result, rain will spread
across the entire Mid-South over the next couple of hours. By mid-
morning, the best chances for rain will shift east across areas
of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River and Northeast
Mississippi. During the afternoon, expect redevelopment of showers
to occur due to diurnal heating. Best chances will occur south of
a line from Forrest City, Arkansas to Jackson, Tennessee.
Although, can`t rule out a shower developing at any given location
at any given time this afternoon due to the proximity of the
upper level low. Temperatures will be cooler today with highs
remaining in the 60s due to the shower activity and cloud cover.
However, this is still about 6-12 degrees above normal for this
time of year.

The upper level low will begin to sink southeastward tonight and
will be located across the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning. As
a result, chances for showers will begin to diminish from
northeast to southeast across the CWA tonight into Wednesday. Some
clearing may begin to occur late tonight across Northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. If clearing takes place,
expect fog to quickly develop possibly becoming dense by Wednesday
morning.

Upper ridging will begin to occur on the back side of the
departing upper low and surface winds will turn back around to the
south. This will allow temperatures to creep back into the 70s for
highs on Wednesday.

Strong warm air advection on Thursday will bring high temperatures
back to into the upper 70s to 80 degrees.

Friday will be another warm day across the Mid-South ahead of an
approaching cold front. Highs will range from the lower to mid 70s
across Northeast Arkansas to around 80 degrees across Northeast
Mississippi. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may begin to
develop during the afternoon hours on Friday across Northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee.

The chances for thunderstorms will shift east Friday evening to
West Tennessee and Northeast Mississippi. Cooler temperatures will
begin to filter into the area behind the front. Lows will be in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Cool high pressure will build over the region for the weekend.
Highs will be in the 50s with lows in the lower to mid 30s which
is near normal for this time of year.

Above normal temperatures will return for the beginning of next
week as a warm front will move through the area Sunday Night.
Highs on Monday will be back into the 60s. Chances for rain may
occur ahead of the warm front Sunday Night into early Monday.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Mainly MVFR and IFR conds to begin the period, with possible LIFR
and VLIFR conds developing overnight. In the short term, on and
off showers can be expected for most of the day as an upper level
low remains located over central Arkansas. The best chances for
rain on site will be at MKL and TUP through late afternoon. As the
upper low shifts eastward overnight, ceilings may temporarily
lift to VFR around 22/00Z at MEM and JBR, before dropping back
down to IFR after 22/06Z.

Ceilings and fog will be slow to lift tomorrow morning, but conds
should improve to VFR near the end of this TAF set or immediately
after. Winds initially south around 10 kts, shifting easterly by
tomorrow morning and weakening to less than 5 kts.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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