Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
246 FXUS62 KMHX 132331 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 731 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of very weak troughs and fronts will approach Eastern NC this week with Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As 2 PM Sun... Key Messages - Heat indices at 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon - Scattered thunderstorm chances this afternoon - Patchy fog possible tonight and early tomorrow morning A stagnant pattern remains in place today with a weak boundaries over ENC and high pressure building in from the southeast. A weak sea breeze is traveling up the tidal rivers and head inland this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forming along or near the sea breeze, with a risk of frequent lightning, locally heavy downpours, and one or two storms with wind gusts up to 30-50 mph.Lack of shear and some lingering midlevel dry air is limiting persistent updrafts and higher coverage. Hot and humid conditions expected again with highs in the low 90s, and heat indices climbing to 100-105 degrees in the afternoon. High pressure will try to build closer overnight, and mostly calm and clear conditions are again expected. This will again combine to bring the potential for patchy fog development overnight to inland areas. Lows by tomorrow morning will be in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Sun...Another day of scattered pulse tstorm coverage with the sea breeze Monday PM. Highs near 90F inland, mid to upper 80s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 2 AM Sun...Sounding like a broken record at this point as we get into the doldrums of summer, but like in previous days discussions, the main feature of the long term will be the daily chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms across ENC. Will note, while we have average to above average confidence that we see shower and thunderstorm activity each day, we have lower confidence in the exact locations within ENC that will be impacted as this will be highly dependent on the days sea/river/sound breezes and exact timing of incoming mid level troughs. Of additional note while PoP`s each day may be closer to 40-70%, coverage will likely remain isolated to scattered in nature at best. Jet stream will remain well to the north of the area through the next several days with multiple upper troughs tracking across the Northern Plains and into the Northeast and then northern Atlantic this week. Typical predictability issues are noted later in the long term (Thursday and beyond) with lower confidence in the exact strength and position of the upper level troughs and ridges over the CONUS. But overall, the general pattern remains the same. Our upper level features of note remain ridging, which will either remain over the Southeast or push W`wards into the Deep South this week. While at the same time, two upper level lows will remain at each side of the upper ridge. One in the western Gulf of Mexico and the other in the Sargasso Sea. Upper low in the western Gulf tracks west into Mexico by mid to late week, while the Sargasso Sea upper low moves little. At the mid levels, we will have a mid level shortwave track across the Carolinas on Mon into Tue while a mid level low spins across the Florida Peninsula well to our south and into the Gulf. Will have a few other weak shortwaves move across ENC through the remainder of the week with a slightly stronger shortwave nearing the area by this weekend. At the surface, moisture pools and PWATs surge to greater than 2 inches across the area Mon/Tue as the previously mentioned incoming shortwave pulls moisture northwards from the Gulf. With PWATS remaining elevated and having ample deep layer moisture in place, any diurnal shower or storm that develops will bring a threat for heavy to excessive rainfall. Combined with the already wet ground from previous days activity, there will at least be a low end threat for some isolated flash flooding. As a result, WPC has placed the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Mon/Tue across our inland counties. While there will be a lack of wind shear across ENC over the next several days, 1000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place each day bringing the potential for sub-severe wind gusts within the strongest storms. As we get later into the week, ridging looks to overspread the Carolinas once again bringing some upper level convergence and drier air over the area, thus limiting precip chances before the potential for slightly higher precip chances over the weekend. High temps each day range from the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows through the entire long term remain in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 00Z Tues/... As of 730 PM Sun... Key Messages - Patchy fog possible tonight Primarily VFR conditions present across ENC terminals this evening with decaying band of showers over the inner coastal plain still bringing sub-VFR cigs for PGV - this will clear up no later than 01z. Attention turns once again to low stratus potential this evening, and followed a blend of the HRRR, LAMP and probabilistic guidance from the HREF to guide the forecast. Signal is for stratus to develop close to the southern coast overnight and slowly build northward through daybreak. Trended TAFs more aggressively for coastal plain terminals, showing low MVFR after 06z. There is a moderate likelihood (40-50%) of IFR across all terminals early Mon morning. VFR returns Mon morning with the returning risk of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, accompanied by the typical hazards seen over the past few days. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 2 AM Sun...Will have a daily threat at afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms through the period. This will bring a low end threat at sub-VFR conditions each afternoon and early evening across ENC. If it does rain, then there will also be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 245 PM Sun...Benign boating conditions are expected for the most part across all our waters through tomorrow. Winds will generally remain light at 10 kts or less with 2-3 ft seas forecast. Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms will bring heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds for inland sounds and rivers. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 2 AM Sun...Not much change in the forecast for the long term, with 5-15 kt S`rly winds expected through Wednesday across all waters while seas persist at 2-3 ft as high pressure ridging remains the dominant feature across the Southeast. The pressure gradient may tighten slightly between ridging and a weakening frontal boundary approaching from the west on Thursday allowing S`rly winds to increase to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts and seas building slightly to 3-4 ft across our coastal waters. Will note, while the current forecast does not explicitly show SCA conditions through the entire period, we will be monitoring trends for the Thurs timeframe for potential SCA`s. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible through the period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...MS/RCF MARINE...RCF/RJ