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000
FXUS62 KMHX 210143
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF CAPE FEAR WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST
AND FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE...HAVE AGAIN
LOWERED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH JUST LOW CHANCE ALONG
THE COAST WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NOW OFFSHORE. POPS WILL
BE MINIMAL WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED
BY LATEST 3 KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
VERY GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON EASTERN NC. MAY
BE SOME LINGERING RAIN ESP ON THE OUTER BANKS IN THE MORNING BUT
THE TREND SHUD BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WIND
INLAND AS LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. SHUD SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THO WITH NEAR 70 READINGS INLAND AND 60S CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT
AHEAD OF A ROBUST MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE OHIO AND
TENN RIVER VALLEYS. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TUES WITH SW LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUES AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WEAK TO MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DESCENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE AND
COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THOUGH WITH HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. SWLY FLOW
BRINGS A MODEST WARM UP TUES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND
TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST. CAA RAMPS UP LATE TUES NIGHT AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N FOR WED AND THURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND
TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRI WITH SW
FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO LOW/MID 70S COAST. KEEPING SLT
CHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS RATHER WEAK. MODELS ARE DEPICTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS WELL.
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVENING AND SOME MODELS INDICATING A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE
KEEPING POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MVFR/IFR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR AT KPGV/KISO
LATER TONIGHT...BUT WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TAF SITES MON NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE VFR
IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH TUES. A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR MAY
OCCUR WITH A FEW SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILD IN WED THROUGH FRI
BRINGING PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS RTES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES. WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED A BIT...BUT DIAMOND BUOY IS STILL GUSTING TO 39 KNOTS.
GALE WARNINGS ALL EXPIRE AT 2 AM AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP ON THE
NEXT UPDATE...BUT WOULD PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON ALL OTHER WATERS AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE. SEAS REMAIN VERY ROUGH AND ARE IN THE
13 TO 16 FOOT RANGE ON THE COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE NORTH.
WILL LIKELY MAKE TWEAKS TO THE COASTAL FORECAST BASED ON THE NEXT
BATCH OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...NLY WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT MON NIGHT
AS LOW PRES PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRES WEAKENS. SEAS
AS HIGH AS 6-8 FT NORTH AND 3-7 FT SOUTH EXPECTED TO START MON
NIGHT BUT ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 5 FT OR LESS TUES MORNING. WINDS
THEN SHIFT TO SW TUES AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. COULD SEE MINIMAL
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP TUES EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS AS
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6 FT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUES NIGHT WITH A NWLY SURGE AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE TUES NIGHT AND WED. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-7 FT NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT LATE TUES NIGHT BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WATERS...HOWEVER MODELS KEEP WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THURS AND FRI WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS DO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN 8+ FT ON THE OUTER
BANKS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO CONT HIGH SURF ADVRY THRU
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BASED ON DATA FROM THE TIDE GAUGE IN
ORIENTAL...WILL CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY OVERNIGHT. WATER
LEVELS CONTINUE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SRN PAMLICO SOUND WITH
PERSISTENT NE FLOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ093>095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC/SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK/LEP
MARINE...CTC/BTC/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CTC