746
FXUS62 KMHX 041415
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1015 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A meandering cold front will linger over the area today before
retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across
the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to
unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions
are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and
humidity as ridging builds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 10 AM Saturday...The majority of the fog has dissipated
but low stratus continues to blanket much of the coastal plain.
Some light showers have blossomed over Down East and PoPs have
been slightly increased through the afternoon and early evening
to reflect the 12Z run of the CAMs. Showers and thunderstorms
are still expected to remain isolated to widely scattered.

Previous Discussion...As of 0400 Saturday...Ridging aloft
persists through the near term with stalled front currently
bisecting the FA over the Pamlico River and ample low level
moisture has led to development of fog and stratus. Have opted
to issue a dense fog advisory for the entire FA area through 12Z
this morning. While every ob in the FA is not explicitly
showing quarter mi VIS or less, the low level stratus will only
help to decrease VIS. After sunrise, the fog will begin to
dissipate, but the stratus will linger through much of the
morning. Weak cold front will remain over ENC while becoming
slightly more diffuse, but moving very little, with
east/southeasterly flow expected most of the day. Most of the FA
is expected to remain dry today save for our inland zones where
showers and iso tstorms associated with a shortwave traveling
NNEward from the Gulf states will pass over. Temperatures will
remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs
ranging from the upper 70s coast to mid 80s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 0400 Saturday...Upper level ridge axis slides offshore
this evening/tonight. Once the 850mb high slides offshore,
moisture content increases through the column as flow in the
lower levels becomes more SSEerly off the Atlantic, increasing
PWATs back over an inch. Upper level precip support by way of
shortwave approaching from the W allows showers to increase in
coverage through the overnight. First, the stalled front will be
the focus of precip, becoming more widespread in the early
morning hours. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As 315 AM Sat...Unsettled weather will continue for the first
half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast
and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier
conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in
heat and humidity.

Sunday through Tuesday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday and
then SW Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore
through early next week. Despite this, a combination of weak
troughing inland and deep moist southerly flow will bring fairly
unsettled conditions through Tuesday. Showers and convection
will be diurnally enhanced and will target the NC coastal plain
the most with Monday and Tuesday likely having the greatest
coverage. Temperatures will be cooler but still above normal
with highs likely in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday and Monday,
and a bit warmer Tuesday...in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday through Friday...Drier conditions are expected mid
week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast.
However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued
southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will
afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and
the low to mid 80s closer to the coast.

By late Thursday a potentially strong frontal system will move
towards the East Coast and more unsettled conditions are
expected through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 0630 Saturday...SubVFR flight cats this morning with
fog/stratus in place. Fog is expected to dissipate by 13Z, but
subVFR CIGs will linger due to stratus into at least the late
morning with IFR CIGs lifting from W to E between 13-16Z and
MVFR ceilings then lifting to VFR conditions by Sat afternoon.
Could see an iso shower or tstm especially across ISO/PGV Sat
afternoon as well. Chances of showers increases area wide
overnight with inland TAF sites showing greatest potential for
subVFR CIGs briefly overnight.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Generally VFR conditions are expected
through mid next week, however increasingly unsettled
conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each
afternoon/evening. Dry and mostly clear conditions expected by
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 0630 Saturday...Have expanded the dense fog advisory for
coastal waters N of Hatt. Conditions will be monitored with
potential of having to extend the advisory a little longer this
morning. The rest of the forecast remains unchanged

Previous Disco as of 0400...Dense fog advisory has been issued
for all inland waters. There is fog over portions of the coastal
waters as well, but no way to verify VIS so will have to wait
for daybreak to make decision on whether or not a dense fog
advisory will be needed offshore. Light and variable winds early
become Eerly 10-15kt this afternoon. Recent buoy data shows
seas generally 1-2ft with seas building to 3ft from N to S
through the day to become 2-3ft everywhere with 4ft over outer
waters, highest N and E of Hatt. Showers and tstorms possible
this evening into the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Decent boating conditions are expected this
weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next
week.

Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts, and
continue to veer to the SW by Monday at 10-15 kts. SW winds will
then increase to 15-20 kts Monday night through Wednesday and
could occasionally gust to 25 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4
ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/OJC
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB