Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 241619
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1219 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
High pressure will continue south of the region through today. A
dry cold front will move through tonight followed by high pressure
through the middle part of the week. A cold front will approach
from the west on Thursday and cross the area Friday. High pressure
will build over the region next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1215 PM Mon...No changes needed with sunny skies and temps
well into the 70s this aftn.
Previous discussion...As of 3 AM Mon...Temps currently in the
50-55 degree range interior with around 60 on the coast as
gradient winds 5-10 kt keeping the bndry layer mixed this morning.
Sprawling sfc high pres across the deep south will remain
entrenched today as cold front now across the Great Lakes region
approaches NC tonight. This will back the flow to WSW and bring
increasing thicknesses in the 1380M range, which has good support
from MOS values fcsting highs in the mid/upr 70s interior to
low/mid 70s on the beaches.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Mon...The dry cold front will push through the area
overnight tonight with winds becoming northerly and a bit gusty
for the coastal areas after midnight. Low temps will drop into the
mid/upr 40s interior with 50s on the coast.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 am Mon...Surface ridge along the east coast Tuesday will
move offshore by midweek. A fast-moving cold front will approach
from the northwest Thursday, passes through eastern NC Thursday
night, then moves off the coast during the day Friday with precip
ending quickly from the west. Bulk of energy and moisture pass by
to the north, so have kept PoPs no higher than chance. Models
disagree next weekend. The GFS brings another cold front w/showers
through Saturday with high pressure building in Sunday. The ECMWF
has a ridge to the south Saturday, then brings a dry front through
Sunday, with the bulk of the moisture passing to the north. HPC
favors the ECMWF solution, so have kept dry pattern going Friday
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tue/...
As of 1215 PM Mon...High confidence in VFR thru the period. A dry
cold front will cross late today and this evening with little if
any clouds assoc with it. High pres with dry air will quickly
build in from the NW late tonight and Tue continuing trend of
mainly clr skies. Combo of light NNE winds overnight and lowering
dewpts shld preclude any patchy late night radiational fog from
Long Term /Tue Night through Fri/
As of 3 am Mon...VFR through Wednesday night. A fast-moving cold
front will bring scattered showers (no thunder) through Thursday
night then off the coast Friday. Bulk of shower activity will be
Thursday night. Surface winds will be from the north around 10
knots Tuesday, northeast around 5 knots Wednesday, southeast
around 5 knots Thursday and west around 5 knots Friday.
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 1215 PM Mon...Gusty W winds are diminishing however seas
still elevated near Diamond Shoals buoy so extended SCA thru 2
pm these waters.
Previous discussion...As of 3 AM
Mon...Initiated SCA for sounds/Alligator river/northern and
central coastal waters after midnight tonight through Tuesday
morning. W winds early this morning 10-20 kt across the marine
domain will diminish a bit later this morning and veer to NW in
advance of dry cold front set to pass through late tonight. A
northerly surge of gusty winds and building seas expected late
tonight as decent cold air advection ensues. The surge will be
short lived with winds and seas diminishing by Tuesday morning.
Long Term /Tue through Fri/
As of 3 am Mon...Breezy north winds Tuesday will decrease Tuesday
night into Wednesday as high pressure builds across the area from
the north. Small craft seas of 4-6 feet Tuesday north of Cape
Hatteras will subside to 3-5 feet Tuesday night as the pressure
gradient loosens and winds diminish. As the high shifts offshore
Wednesday, winds will veer to northeast Wednesday night, then from
east to southwest Thursday as another cold front approaches from
the west. The front will sweep through the marine zones Thursday
night and off the coast Friday with winds veering to northwest.
Winds and seas Tuesday night through Friday will be mostly light,
generally 10-15 knots and 2-4 feet. Only exception will be
Wednesday north of Ocracoke, where seas may temporarily build to
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ154.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT
Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154-156-158.