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000
FXUS62 KMHX 061528
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1028 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT WELL
OFFSHORE...WITH A COLD 1038MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. COLD DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE DROPPED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE OBX AND HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BREAKING WAVE AROUND 8 FT CONTINUING.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S TODAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S MUSH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...EXPECT STRONG WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO
15 DEGREES WARMER INLAND THAN TODAY UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES
AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW/MID 50S BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
40S OUTER BANKS. BY SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WSW/W
WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S
WITH MID 50S OUTER BANKS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE
IN THE DAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...PRODUCING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY IN THE DAY...MOVING
TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. ANY QPF WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...BUT WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT FORMS
OFFSHORE WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
OFF THE NC COAST. RAIN BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...HAVE GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH...THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS SOUTH THURSDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...OVERALL CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR THIS MORNING...THOUGH
EWN REMAINS MVFR LIFTING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING...AND NLY
WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SUBSIDING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...WITH WARMER AND GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS FROM EARLY
SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH RAIN DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATES STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS 15-30 KT WITH GUSTS 30-40KT...AND SEAS 8-11 FT
NORTH AND 5-8 FT SOUTH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ALLOWED THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND WATERS NORTH OF OREGON
INLET AND RAISED A SCA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SCAS CONTINUE FOR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND RIVERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...THOUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY FOR THE CENTRAL LEG
THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS DROPPING BELOW 6FT BY
MIDNIGHT.

VERY MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND...MAINLY DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES NORTH OF HATTERAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREAKING WAVES 8-10FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE A BIT
GUSTY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME SW/W
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
MORE NW/N WINDS MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT. BY
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE NC COAST AND STRENGTHENS AS
IT MOVES AWAY. SEAS BUILD AND COULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN WATERS BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131-136-137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/SK/CQD