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000
FXUS62 KMHX 090322
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1022 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST MINOR
TWEAKS TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMPS. SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOWS
1022MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CURRENTLY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. MUCH MILDER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH SW/W FLOW...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE MILD OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS...IN THE MID 60S.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE WINDS WILL BE
MORE NORTHERLY...SO HIGHS WILL BE COOLER...IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE/ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SE STATES. ON SUNDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL RIDGE NORTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
CENTER MOVES EAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST
OF FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND
MILD PATTERN BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE
WATER.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS STARTING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EARLY THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. EXPECTING WEDNESDAY TO CONTINUE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S THEN TURNING MUCH COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES PRODUCING LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S. ON DAY 7 SATURDAY THE GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE WATER. THE
ECMWF/GFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR MAINLY
COASTAL SHOWERS AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION THAT FAR VERY LOW THOUGH SO WILL FORECAST DRY
CONDITIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT SCU DEVELOPING SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS SUN MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING NWLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. ON
WEDNESDAY APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THIS
THREAT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM THE LATEST
COASTAL STORM. THE LATEST OBS SHOW SW 5-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT
SOUTH OF OCRACOKE AND 5-7 FT NORTH. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE
NORTH WATERS FOR ADDITIONAL 3 HRS AS OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW 7 FT AT
THE 13E OREGON INLET BUOY.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH ALL
MARINE ZONES BY 18Z. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS FORECAST ONLY 10-15 KNOTS
BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTHEAST POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM 15 KT TO 5 TO 10
KT SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND IT`S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KT.

SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN PROMPTED BY THE
MODERATE SW FLOW BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT. THURSDAY STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD/BM
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/BM