Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 292013
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
413 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS OR
TSTMS PSBL MAINLY WELL INLAND INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG THEN DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LWR AND MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE
FRONT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. SFC AND UPR LEVEL RIDGES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT WILL BEING
SQUEEZED BY UPR LVL TROFFING TO W AND WEAKENING UPR LOW FROM E-SE.
RIDGES WILL BREAK DOWN MON WITH UPR TROF MOVING IN FROM W
ACCOMPANIED BY SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREA
TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY S AND E OF AREA WED. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-FRI PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING UPR LOW OVER
MS/AL WHILE ECMWF HAS IT OVER NRN FLA...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS
INDICATE FRONT STALLING JUST S OF AREA WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS COASTAL AND SRN SECTIONS WED NIGHT AND
THU.

SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE
PCPN THREAT AND KEPT PREVIOUS DRY FCST FOR PERIOD. TEMPS AROUND
5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN 60S TO AROUND 70 AND HIGHS FROM
AROUND 80 OBX TO UPR 80S INLAND.

MON-WED...INCREASING POPS FOR MON INTO TUE AS SFC FRONT MOVES INTO
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH UPR TROFFING AND SHRT WV ENERGY
ALOFT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS AT 50% FOR TUE AFTN/EVE WITH 40% FOR TUE
NIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR WED WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST S AND E
OF AREA. STILL WARM AGAIN MON WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90
INLAND...THEN TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH FRONTAL
INSTRUSION.

THU-FRI...LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST THIS PERIOD GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND COMBINED WITH WPC...INDICATING
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOST AREAS DURING PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ON BOX WITH NE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. HAVE KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TAF
FORECAST AS IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A THREAT OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO
DEVELOP AROUND 9Z FOR ISO AND OAJ TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING
WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM E-NE. FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON MON AND MOVE THROUGH AREA TUE-WED RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE AFTN
INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST THIS PERIOD.
SE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S-SW SUN INTO MON BUT SPEEDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 KT UNTIL MON NIGHT...WITH INCREASE UP TO 15 KT AS FRONT
APPOACHES FROM NW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH SURGE TO AROUND 15 KT WED. SEAS MAINLY
2-4 FT THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE TO 5 FT NRN WATERS
LATE WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC/DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC/JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JAC/JBM



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