Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 011902
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
302 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will remain over the Ohio valley tonight then
move northeast towards New England Sunday pulling a cold front
slowly across the area Sunday afternoon and evening. The front
will stall well off of the southeast coast early next week while
high pressure builds in from the north. Hurricane Matthew is
forecast to move north of the Bahamas and off the southeast coast
late next week. Please see the latest forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center for the latest on Hurricane Matthew.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 pm Sat...Upper low over Ohio valley will likely not move
much overnight so surface front likely will not either. Dewpoints
across the area indicate the front is just east of the coastal
plain...with lower/mid 60s west and upper 60s/mid 70s east.
Convection has been sparse this afternoon. However, will leave
PoPs for tonight much the same from previous package. Over the
past few nights, convection has developed off the coast and moved
north across the area. Lows in the mid 60s west to mid 70s Outer
Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 3 pm Sat...Upper low over Ohio valley will shift east toward
New England. Surface front will slowly slide east and off the
coast early in the evening. Pops tapered accordingly, with chance
east of a line from the south coast to the northern Outer Banks,
and slight chance elsewhere. Highs in the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM Saturday... Sunday night through Monday...As the
upper low begins to lift NE Sunday the sfc low/front slowly
dissipates as it approaches Sunday and drifts off the coast and
stalls by Mon. The models cont to keep better moisture along and
East of the coast so will cont low chc pops cst Sunday/Sunday
evening then forecast dry weather for Monday as drier air filters
into the region in light post frontal northerly flow. Not much
change to temps with lows cont in the 60s inland to low 70s cst
with highs lower to middle 80s Sunday cooling slightly to the upr
70s to lower 80s Monday.

Tuesday through Wednesday...High pres will gradually build in
from the N Tue and slide E Wed. Expecting most areas to remain dry
through mid week but onshore flow will produce enough moisture for
a low risk of mainly coastal showers. High temps will be close to
seasonable norms in the middle to upper 70s.

Thursday through Saturday...Forecast will be much dependent on
the track of Hurricane Matthew. Will keep chance PoPs, highest
coast, through the period and maintain high temps in the 70s in
NE flow. Please see the latest forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center for the latest on Hurricane Matthew.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through Sun/
As of 3 pm Sat...Tonight, isolated showers/thunder PGV/ISO and
scattered showers/thunder EWN/OAJ. Sunday, isolated
showers/thunder all 4 terminals. Kept cigs VFR, though cannot rule
out MVFR in the late night/early morning hours, though confidence
not high enough to include in TAFs. Surface winds very light to
calm overnight, and SSW around 5 knots Sunday.

Long Term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...Scattered shra and a few tsra cont
through Sunday evening with the potential for sub VFR conditions.
Drier air will work in from the West Sunday into Wednesday with
only minimal chances for mainly east of the TAF sites. With
easterly flow developing early next week early morning fog and
stratus will be possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sun/
As of 3 pm Sat...Surface front will remain over the inland areas
tonight, then move slowly east Sunday, moving off the coast Sunday
evening. Generally light south to southwest winds in the short
term no higher than 5-10. Seas have been problematic today, with
6 foot seas continuing over the central and northern waters, which
has not been picked up by either NWPS or WaveWatch. Will extend
SCA through 00Z, after which seas should generally subside.

Long Term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...Weak low pres/cold front W of the region
Sunday will lead to mainly S flow aob 10 kts. The low/front will
slowly slide off the coast Sunday night. Initially post frontal
N/NE flow will be light monday AOB 10 KT then increase to 15 to 20
KT Tuesday and 20 to 25 KT Wednesday as the gradient increases in
response to high pressure building in from the North and Hurricane
Matthew vicinity of the Bahamas. Seas through Monday will be 2 to
4 FT building to 3 to 5 FT Tuesday and 6 to 8 FT Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...HSA/JME
MARINE...HSA/JME



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