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000
FXUS62 KMHX 262117
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
417 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN NC.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER COOLING AND MODEST SFC HEATING THIS AFTN BUT THINK
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO ADD FORECAST MENTION ATTM.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES
EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW
AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW
COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER WX.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE MORNING
AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL EXPECT
MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NW AREAS FROM
GREENVILLE AND WILLIAMSTON TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE
NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE
LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT
AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WED AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR
THU.

GAINING A LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF STARTING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER AND NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BOTH MODELS PRODUCING VERY
LIGHT QPF THURS NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850
MB. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 40-45
BEFORE THE STRONG CAA COMMENCES BUT ONLY EXPECT UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S SATURDAY.

BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MUCH WETTER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SFC PATTERN...SPECIFICALLY
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THERE ARE IMPLICATIONS OF PTYPE CONCERNS
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE BUT AT THIS TIME
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRACK THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NC (12Z ECMWF) OR
NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC (12Z GFS).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO START EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS LATE
TONIGHT...THE LIGHT SHOWERS...IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW...AROUND 9Z... MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. NW WINDS
10-15 KNOTS GUSTY UP TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE TOMORROW AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS
FARTHER NE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THURS
NIGHT BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND VFR
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR.
COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRI AND SAT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND/OR A VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS/THE SOUNDS/AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL
GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF THE NC COAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS
30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO
4-8 FT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...SK/CQD/BM
MARINE...BTC/JME/SK/CQD