Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 301925
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND STALL ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN
INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A FRONT TO THE WEST WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POOR TIMING OF THE
FRONT...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF FORCING AS THE FRONT CROSSES.
A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH LIFTING NORTH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
TO THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE SLGT CHC POP GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FOG/STRATUS MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING GIVEN CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STALLED ALONG
THE COAST. THE EXACT LOCATION WILL INFLUENCE WHERE PRECIP
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES RIDE THE BOUNDARY. AS FOR FRIDAY...A MORE POTENT
SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MERGE WITH THIS BOUNDARY HELPING
TO GENERATE SOME LIFT. HOWEVER...WITH THIS LOW MOVING NORTH AND
EAST...THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM THIS MERGER SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE. IT
MAY ALSO CREATE SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AS
IT LIFT NORTH. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG
THE COAST IN COMBINATION WITH THE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE...CONVERGENCE
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POPS CONFINED ALONG THE COAST
AS DYNAMICS LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE IN THIS AREA. IF THIS STALLED
BOUNDARY MEANDERS INLAND OR OFFSHORE...THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
INFLUENCE THE LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON WHERE PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS DEVELOP.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SIMILAR TREND TO PREVIOUS DAYS...PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO LESS. HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WITH THE GFS/NAM KEEPING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER OFFSHORE
AND THEN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM...KEEPING
THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE COAST. 12Z ECMWF RUN COMING IN SLIGHTLY
DRIER THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF
WPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FAVORING A SLIGHTLY DRIER ECMWF
SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING WITH THE FRONT...HIGHEST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
ALONG THE COAST WITH GULF MOISTURE FEED AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES. LOOKS LIKE THINGS START TO DRY OUT MON NIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MID WEEK AS GFS SHOWS TROUGHING ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED/THU
WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BERMUDA HIGH
AS MAIN FEATURE AND TROUGHING INLAND. WILL TREND WITH WPC/ECMWF
AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGH OFFSHORE AND PRED S/SW FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE SC POPS...THINKING PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AT THIS TIME.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WATER AS A SFC
LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES NORTH AND WEST. TYPICAL CU DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECKS AROUND 3KFT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WITH POOR TIMING OF THE FRONT...WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE TOO MUCH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOG/STRATUS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE...BUT LIMITED WITH ANY CLOUD COVER/MIXING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE AXIS. THE COVERAGE
AND EXACT LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
MOST PROMISING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...WITH BEST CHANCES AT EWN/OAJ.
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS ESP FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SCA FOR THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES NORTH AND EAST OVER THE
PERIOD.  THIS WILL ULTIMATELY IMPACT THE SEAS MORE SO THAN WINDS.
RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE
SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE AROUND 10-15KTS AND DIMINISH BRIEFLY
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST...A SURGE WILL
BUILD SEAS 4-6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. A FRONT TO THE WEST WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACTS ON MARINE...OTHER THAN
SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SMALL SURGE IN WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
OR JUST OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRED S/SW FLOW
RETURNS FRI NIGHT 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH
THE DAY SAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS 10-15KT CONT INTO SUN. A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SUN NIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TUE...WITH LINGERING 6FT SEAS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...LEP/CQD
MARINE...LEP/CQD


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