Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 302030
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
430 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT....THEN STALL NEAR
OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. BETTER FORCING WILL BE N AND W OF REGION AND HAVE REMOVED
POPS FOR ALL BUT FAR NW TIER LATE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW ST LIKELY LATE ASSOC WITH WARM
FRONT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH SRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. EXPECT EARLY MORNING STRATUS
TO BURNOFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PC SKIES REST OF THE DAY. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH WARMER...MAINLY 80 TO 85 INLAND WITH 70S BEACHES.
THIS WARMTH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTAB AND A FEW TSRA WILL BE POSS
INLAND HOWEVER FORCING IS STILL MINIMAL ALOFT SO THINK CVRG WILL
BE LIMITED AND HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS. KEPT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BEACHES DRY AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A GENERAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
MODELS DEPICTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW STALLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR RATHER UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING
PATTERN...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS QUITE LOW...SUCH AS
TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS POSITION OF THE
FRONT NEAR THE AREA AND INDIVIDUAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND DEEP MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE A BIT LESS ON MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH
COUPLED WITH MORE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES
FORECAST AT -5C TO -7C...WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND SPC HAS OUR AREA IN THE MARGINAL THREAT
OF SEVERE FOR MONDAY. BULK SHEAR APPEARS LIMITED AT AROUND 20 KT
SO DON`T THINK WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THIS
TIME BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AWAY INLAND
AND 70S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DECREASES AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
HAD POOR RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING
OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. 12Z
MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE
FRONT NOT MOVING INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AND THEN STALL IT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY...LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH A DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE
AREA WOULD REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO
35-50 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TUESDAY. AGAIN THE SEVERITY OF
STORMS WILL DEPEND OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND TIMING
OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY
KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
PERIOD WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY THURSDAY AND REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON AS MODELS DIFFER WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT AND TIMING/STRENGTH OF AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THE 12Z
GFS IS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS A MUCH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND SUBSEQUENTLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUITE WET WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IT IS NOW LOOKING THAT BY THURSDAY THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BUT A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER
LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW.
INCREASED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PERIODS OF ENHANCED LIFT WITH
THE SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH PEAK HEATING
WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. HOWEVER AS IS TYPICAL WITH
CUT-OFF LOWS...MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SAT...THE STRATUS HAS LIFTED TO MVFR MOST AREAS
WITH SOME VFR SRN TIER. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR INTO THE EVENING
WITH BEST CHCS OF ALL VFR TOWARD EVENING. OVERNIGHT LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS N WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUNDS OF IFR STRATUS MAINLY 06Z-12Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE
FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH LOW LVL
FLOW MORE SRLY. THINK BULK OF CONVECTION WILL STAY N AND W OF TAF
SITES SUNDAY WITH VFR FROM MID TO LATE MORN ON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOUTS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE LOW AS MODELS ARE NOT
IN BEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR PROLONGED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO
BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE PEAK ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS
REMAIN DRY. DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
BUT SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...CURRENT NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO
15 TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N THRU
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT IN AFTERNOON.

WL CONT MARGINAL SCA INTO EARLY EVENING N OF OCRACOKE AS SEAS
OVER OUTER CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS STILL 5 TO 6 FEET. AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET. ON SUNDAY
WILL AGAIN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER WATERS LATE AS WINDS
INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE PATTERN...MINIMAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS QUITE LOW AS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A COLD FRONT AS WELL AS LOW
PRESSURE AREAS THAT MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. SW WINDS AROUND 10-20
KT EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SEAS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINANTLY BE AROUND 3-5 FT WITH PERIOD OF UP
TO 6 FT POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS PER THE NWPS AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT IF
WAVEWATCH VERIFIES. MODELS HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT STILL DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT
MOVING INTO THE WATERS BUT NOW LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING TIME FRAME. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR OFFSHORE
THE FRONT MOVES AND VARY BETWEEN ALONG THE COAST FROM HATTERAS
SOUTH TO FARTHER OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM. WINDS BECOME N/NE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE S/SW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY BE THE CASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT COULD INCREASE UP TO 20 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS THURSDAY. BOTH 12Z NWPS AND WAVEWATCH KEEP SEAS AROUND 2-4
FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK



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