Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 200241
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
941 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west tonight and Monday,
and then move offshore Tuesday. Low pressure will move northeast
near the coast early Wednesday and again Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 940 PM Sunday...High pressure continues to build east into
the Tennessee Valley at late evening as low pressure exit off
the Canadian Maritimes. A bit of a surge will kick up winds for
a bit until around 08z or 09z before winds drop off again toward
morning. Temperatures have already fallen into the 40s in most
areas and lows should drop into the low/mid 30s over most land
areas ranging to the mid 40s for the Outer Banks. Skies should
be mostly clear through the overnight hours. No major changes
needed to the forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sun...High pressure will continue to build in from
the west Monday, making for an overall pleasant day, though
temps will remain below normal. Low level thickness values and
mostly sunny skies support highs in the low to mid 50s for the
Outer Banks, and mid 50s to around 60 degrees inland. Min RH
values will drop to 25-30 percent inland Mon afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sun...High pressure shifts off the coast late
Monday night and Tuesday. A cold front will move through
Wednesday morning and become stationary off the coast of the
southeast states. Areas of low pressure will move northeast
along the front Thanksgiving Day into Friday.

Monday night and Tuesday...There will be the potential for frost
for those coastal counties that have not yet ended the growing
season Monday night/Tue morning (Mainland Hyde, Pamlico and
Carteret)...with temps dropping into the mid to upper 30s. Warmer
southerly flow on Tuesday will lead to milder temps, with highs
in the lower to upper 60s.

Wednesday thru Friday...A cold front will move off the coast
Wednesday morning and stall over the offshore waters of the
southeast states. A few waves of low pressure will move
northeast along the front during this time. The best chance for
rain during this time will be mainly east of Highway 17 with
PoPs no higher than 40-50%

High temps will be in the lower to mid 60s Wednesday, and then
the lower to mid 50s Thursday and 55-60 Friday. Low temps Wed
will range from the upper 40s inland to the mid to upper 50s
along the south coast and Outer Banks. Lows Thursday will be
around 40 on the coastal plain to 45-50 south coast and OBX.
Lows Friday morning will be in the mid to upper 30s coastal
plain to mid/upper 40s south coast and OBX.

Saturday...The offshore front will move off to the east as a
deep upper trof sweeps in from the west. Highs will be around 60
after morning lows in the upper 30s inland, with upper 40s to
lower 50s Outer Banks.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through 00Z Tuesday/...
As of 640 PM Sunday...VFR conditions will continue through this
TAF cycle as strong high pressure continues to build east from
Texas. Winds will be 5 knots or less from the W/NW overnight
into Monday at all the TAF sites under clear skies.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 230 am Sun...VFR conditions forecast Monday night and
Tuesday. Sub-VFR in light rain Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day,
with the best chance at EWN and OAJ. Only isolated activity at
PGV and ISO.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 940 PM Sunday...A secondary surge has started to work into
the Sounds and northern waters at late evening. The latest HRRR
and ARW wind fields shows this lasting until around 08z or 09z,
so have reissued a Small Craft Advisory for the Pamlico and
Albemarle Sound and Alligator River for frequent gusts to 25
knots. The SCA will remain in effect for the coastal waters
until mid-morning Monday as wind gusts to around 25 knots and
seas up to 6 feet will be possible through the overnight hours.
N/NW winds early Mon morning become W/NE 10 kt or less with
seas 2-4 ft by late afternoon. Could see some lower water on the
western inland rivers through early Monday morning, about a
foot below normal, given the NW flow but not enough to warrant
an advisory at this point.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 230 am Sun...Winds Tuesday will be SSE 5-10 kts. Another
front will cross the waters Wednesday morning, with winds
becoming north 15-20 knots and continuing through Thanksgiving
Day. Seas on Tuesday only 1-2 feet. However, seas will very
quickly build to 5-8 feet north of Cape Lookout and 4-6 feet
south following the passage of the cold front Wednesday morning.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ130-131-135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM/CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD/HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA/BM
MARINE...CTC/CQD/HSA


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