Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 270854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
454 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017

A frontal system will move into the area tonight and become
stationary through Sunday, then lift northeast Sunday night.
A cold front will drift in Monday night and become stationary
along the coast through the end of the week.


As of 3 am Sat...The bulk of Saturday will be mostly sunny
and dry until mid-level ridge starts to break down late in the
day. Some decent mid-level shortwave energy and an approaching
boundary from the north will kick off scattered showers and
thunderstorms to our north, near the VA border, but think these
will stay north of our CWA through 00Z Sunday. Saturday will be
quite warm in SW flow with thickness and MOS guidance supporting
highs in the lower 90s inland and low/mid 80s beaches.


As of 3 am Sat...A surface low with its associated cold front
will move ESE through VA, exiting the coast around 06Z. The
trailing cold front will move into the central part of the
forecast area after midnight. At the same time strong shortwave
energy will cross E NC. Models continue to show scattered
coverage for the area with the best chance in the northeast.
New SPC Day 1 outlook has slight risk in the northwest counties
with marginal risk elsewhere, with the main threats being
damaging winds and hail. Will mention this in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook.


As of 330 AM Saturday...Latest guidance has led to slightly
increased confidence in precip timing for Sunday-Monday but
continued low confidence rest of period due to timing of short
waves and frontal boundaries across area.

Sunday-Sunday night...weak frontal boudary will be stalled W-E
across area but short-wave energy relatively weak, thus
expecting scattered convective development mainly in afternoon
and evening. Some potential for activity to continue overnight
with frontal boundary remaining stalled across area, thus will
continue chance POPs overnight. Inreasing deep layer shear
during afternoon could lead to a few strong to marginally severe
storms. Weak NE flow for northern OBX will keep highs 75-80
there while SW sections will remain in warm sector with highs
near 90.

Monday-Monday night...Models generally agree on more widespread
convective threat with stronger short wave trough and surface
cold front moving toward area during peak afternoon heating. GFS
and NAM indicating LIs to -10 and CAPEs to near 5000 with deep
layer shear increasing to 40-50 KT, thus increasing concern for
strong to severe storms and SPC day 3 Outook of Slight Risk of
severe for entire area. Keeping POPs in 40-50% range for now.
Guidance indicates low level thicknesses building to near 1430
meters, supportive of max temps 90-94 inland of coast. Lows
Monday night remaining muggy 70-74.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...Frontal boundary expected to stall and
wash out across area with addtional short wave energy resulting
in another bout of mainly diurnal showers/tstms. More cloud
cover and lower thicknesses will keep max temps mainly in the
80s. Lows Tuesday night 66-70 inland to lower 70s coast.

Wednesday-Friday...Low confidence for this forecast period due
to poor model continuity. 00Z runs have trended wetter for
Wednesday with front still stalled across area while drier for
Thursday with front off coast. Only forecast adjustment was to
add slight chance POPs all zones for Wednesday but left lower
chance POPs in place for Thursday. Higher chance POPs for Friday
with front lifting back north. Max temps still in 80s for
Wednesday then around 80 for end of week. Lows from mid 60s to
lower 70s.


Short Term /through tonight/
As of 3 am Sat...VFR through today. Sub-VFR cigs/vsbys possible
tonight in scattered showers and thunderstorms as a front
drifts south into the area. Surface winds will be from the
southwest, 10-15 knots today and less than 10 knots tonight.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/
As of 330 AM Saturday...some lingering sub-VFR conditions
possible Sunday morning in wake of overnight showers/tstms with
mainly VFR Sunday afternoon and evening. Better chance of
periods of sub-VFR with convective activity Monday afternoon and
evening and again Tuesday afternoon and evening. Less coverage
for Wednesday but sub-VFR could linger with front stalled over


Short Term /through tonight/
As of 3 am Sat...A weak ridge of high pressure to the south will
weaken today. A front will drop in from the north late tonight and
become stationary west-east through the central waters through
Sunday. Flow will be southwest, except becoming west after
midnight across the waters north of Oregon Inlet and on the
Albemarle Sound behind the front. Winds will average 5-15
knots, except on the Pamlico Sound and on the coastal waters
south of Cape Hatteras where speeds will increase tonight to
15-20 knots ahead of the front. Seas will average 2-4 feet, with
seas building to 3-5 feet from Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/
As of 330 AM Saturday...Zonal flow aloft will lead to several
weak front intrusions into area Sunday, Monday night and again
Tuesday night. Southern half of waters will mainly see SW winds
15 KT or less during period but northern waters will see some
periods of shiting winds but with speeds less than 15 KT.

Southern waters will see some periods of seas building to 4 feet
for outer portions with SW winds around 15 KT, otherwise seas
mainly 2-3 feet during period.





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