Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 150152
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
952 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM SUN...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S BY SUNRISE. WITH CONTINUED INFLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
AREAS OF FOG FORM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH CONTINUED WET GROUND IF
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUN...THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AND BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE WASHING OUT LATE. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW CHANCE
POPS WITH BEST CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED
INSTABILITY.LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...APPROACHING UPR SHRT WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT
COULD LEAD TO SOME SCT SHRA MON NIGHT ESPCLY LATE...WL CONT CHC
POPS WITH ISOLD TSRA MENTION WITH WEAK INSTAB OVER THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL GRAD MOVE OFF THE CST TUE...CONT CHC POPS ALL AREAS
EARLY THEN RAIN CHCS SHLD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE LATE AS DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN. TUE WILL LIKELY BE WARMEST DAY OF WEAK
WITH LIMITED CAA INIT..HIGHS IN THE 80S. INIT SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
TO THE N TUE NIGHT AND WED AS FRONT STALL TO THE S. EXPECT MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WITH JUST SMALL CHC FOR SRN TIER CLOSER TO FRONT AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N LATE
IN THE WEEK AS SFC WAVE DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE CST. AGAIN CANT RULE
OUT SOME ISOLD SHRA IMD CST BUT THINK MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR SPREADS S INTO THE AREA. THE HIGH TO THE N
WILL SLIDE E BUT CONT TO EXTEND SW INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH CONT MAINLY DRY WX. LOWER THICKNESSES AND NE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WED THRU FRI WITH MAINLY 70S FOR HIGHS. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME LOWER 80S BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 631 PM SUN...OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS
EVENING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS. NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. MOIST NORTH
EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOWER CIGS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TOMORROW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH WET GROUND COULD ALSO HAVE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FOG IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE PUT MVFR VIS IN THE
TAFS...IFR VIS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED LATER MON
NIGHT AND MOST OF TUE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS IN PRECIP THRU TUE WITH PATCHY ST/FOG ALSO
POSS LATE MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TUE NIGHT
AND WED WITH MAINLY VFR. STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS SHLD CONT TO KEEP MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND VFR OVER THE AREA THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 951 PM SUN...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5
FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AS WIND AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW CRITERIA. SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
MONDAY...AND INTO THE WATERS BY AFTERNOON BEFORE WASHING OUT AND
DISSIPATING MONDAY EVENING. N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY MON BECOMING
E/SE AROUND 10KT LATE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS MON NIGHT AND EARLY
TUE THEN EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE TUE THRU REST OF THE
WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE THEN CROSS
LATE TUE. LIGHT WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND INCREASE TO 15 KTS OVER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS LATE TUE. 2 TO 3 FOOT
SEAS THRU TUE MORN THEN AS N WINDS INCREASE AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD REACH AREA WILL HAVE SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL WTRS. NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND SWELLS FROM
EDOUARD WILL KEEP SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS THU AND FRI WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/CQD/RF








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