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000
FXUS62 KMHX 072055
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
355 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY THEN LIFT
BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND CROSS EARLY TUESDAY. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL WELL TO THE OF
REGION TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE NW. STRONG
INVERSION ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE REGION WITH
OVERCAST SKIES. MDLS SHOW INCREASING ISENT LIFT DEVELOPING FROM N
TO S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND HAVE CHC POPS EARLY GRAD INCREASING TO
LIKELY FROM N TO S OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING MUCH WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 30S INLAND TO UPR 40S
MOST CNTRL/SRN OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...ISENT LIFT WILL GRAD LIFT N OF REGION
SUNDAY BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN/DRIZZLE ESPCLY
EARLY ALL AREAS AND ACROSS THE N LATER. DID NOT CHANGE POPS WHICH
HAVE LIKELY ALL AREAS EARLY...DIMINISHING TO CHC S AS BEST LIFTS
SHIFTS TO THE N. COOL NE FLOW WILL PERSIST INLAND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S...ALONG THE CST MAY SEE SOME LOW TO MID 50S AS LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS AS A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED
OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE CONUS...PLACING EASTERN NC IN SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP SUN NIGHT AND MOVE NNE WITH RETURN SW FLOW TAKING OVER
WITH EASTERN NC AGAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL END
DRASTICALLY SUN NIGHT...THOUGH FCST SNDGS INDICATE OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS/MIST AND POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHWARD. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BREAK THROUGH ON MONDAY AS
SW WINDS BRING WARMING TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70
SOUTH.

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. PRECIP CHANCES INC FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BEGINNING MON NIGHT. LOTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE IN SW FLOW
ALOFT. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS DUE TO STRONG AGREEMENT AMONGST
OPER MODEL RUNS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FOR
HIGH TEMPS TUE...LOW CONFIDENCE AS TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH E NC WILL DICTATE WHETHER WARMER TEMPS NEAR 70 ARE
REALIZED OR TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 50S. GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT BRINGING IT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WHILE FASTER ECMWF
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH BY TUE MORNING. IF SLOWER GFS/NAM SOLN
VERIFY COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
WITH SOLAR HEATING DURING THE DAY TUE. FOR NOW...HAVE COMPROMISED
AND HAVE COOLER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70 ON THE CRYSTAL COAST AND KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST. TEMPS SHOULD EXHIBIT A NON- DIURNAL
CURVE AS WARMEST READINGS REALIZED EARLY TUE. RAIN WILL QUICKLY
END BY TUES EVENING FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.
MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WED/THURS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING MOST
AREAS INLAND. MODEST AGREEMENT THURS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF SC/GA WHICH MAY WRAP AROUND SOME CLOUDS
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THUS MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WED NIGHT/THURS FOR THE COAST. NAEFS POPS AND ECM SOLN REMAIN
MAINLY DRY HOWEVER SO AM DISCOUNTING THE WETTER GFS SOLN. ANY
OFFSHORE LOW WILL SHIFT WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE THUR WITH A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI...WITH TEMPS
STILL 5-8 F BELOW NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.

07/12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECM INDICATE NEXT POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE GOM LATE IN THE WEEK AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS...SO HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE
POPS FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB VFR THRU BULK OF TAF
PERIOD. THRU THE OVERNIGHT THINK WILL HAVE MAINLY MVFR WITH SOME
OCNL IFR. ON SUNDAY FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS LOWERING TO IFR OR
WORSE ALL AREAS...WL ALSO HAVE INCREASING CHCS OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT..A WEAK LOW OFF THE COAST WILL PUSH NE THROUGH THE
AREA SUN NIGHT WITH SW FLOW TAKING OVER AND PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE BRINGING POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS AND BR TO
THE TERMINALS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT MON AS SW FLOW INCREASES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE TUES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWERED CEILINGS/VSBYS MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH VFR RETURNING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...GRDNT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ALONG THE CST
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL TO THE S AND STRONG HIGH PRES NOSES
IN FROM THE NW. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL PERSIST AND HAVE EXTENDED
SCA FOR ALL WTRS THRU THE NIGHT. SCA MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL SOUNDS
BUT SHLD HAVE AT LEAST GUSTS TO 25 KTS. ON SUNDAY THE FRONT TO THE
SE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK N...THIS SHLD RESULT IN GRAD
DIMINISHING WINDS ESPCLY SRN TIER WITH SCA ENDING SOUNDS AND SRN
WTRS THRU THE DAY. ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TIER DECENT NE FLOW WILL
PERSIST KEEPING WINDS UP A BIT AND SEAS OVER 6 FT INTO THE EVENING.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES NNE ALONG THE NC COAST
SUN NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME W ONCE THE WEAK LOW LIFTS
NORTH OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT. SW WINDS EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND
PEAK AROUND 15 KT BY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT N AND INCREASE 15-20 KT
DUE TO POST- FRONTAL CAA SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING TUES AFTERNOON AND
LASTING INTO WED. SEAS BUILD 4-7 FT LATE TUES/TUES NIGHT.
REINFORCING COLD AIR SURGE POSSIBLE BY THUR KEEPING SCA CONDITIONS
A THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/TL