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000
FXUS62 KMHX 290806
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 972MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MAINE...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING
INTO THE SE US...CONTINUING TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE TODAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ALONG THE EASTERN US TODAY...RESULTING IN A VERY PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS ENC WITH TEMPS BELOW CLIMO...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WILL MAINTAIN SC POPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND E OF HWY 17...THOUGH
THINK COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...OVERALL QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE SC
-RA ALONG THE COAST AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG STALLED
FRONT LIFTS NE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NE FLOW.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM TUE...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN A RETURN TO A WET AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD FOR LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND KEEP POPS OUT OF FCST
WED AND THUR...THOUGH AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER FORMING DURING PEAK
HEATING EACH AFTERNOON BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE...PWATS BELOW 1.25" (LESS THAN 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR)...NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR EVEN AN ISO MENTION IN GRIDS.
MAX T`S WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH MID 80S WED TO MID/UPR 80S ON
THUR. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE ON THE LOW SIDE.

AM GETTING A BIT CONCERNED FOR FRI AND BEYOND...AS THE AREA WILL
BE IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR BOUTS OF RAIN SHOWERS...HEAVY AT
TIMES. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES IT WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE...
THOUGH WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN E NC RECEIVING LOTS OF RAINFALL THIS
MONTH... FLOODING MAY BECOME A REAL CONCERN.

BY THUR NIGHT...ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY...WHILE OFFSHORE STALLED BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
MIGRATE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SEABOARD. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
AMONGST MODEL SUITE ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS...WITH ECMWF
WETTER EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT...AND GFS
HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRI. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CHANCE AS EARLY AS
LATE THUR NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ON FRI AS DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND
SHARPENING INVERTED SFC TROUGH TAKES PLACE ALONG THE COAST. HAVE
CAPPED POPS AT 50 PERCENT FRI DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...
THOUGH THINK THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE NUMEROUS BY
AFTERNOON. DECENT UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL WITH REGION
IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION.

EVEN BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE AREA
WILL BE UNDER FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MENTIONED
TROUGH... AND WITH LAYER STREAMLINES CONVERGING ON E NC FROM THE
CARIBBEAN...SET UP WILL FAVOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS WILL RISE
TO ABOVE 2 INCHES AND LAYER MIX RATIOS ABOVE 16 G/KG. MAY EVEN BE
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ~20-25 KT WILL BE
IN PLACE...THOUGH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE INC POPS TO LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND AND KEPT HIGH POPS GOING THROUGH SUN. NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GEFS REFORECAST PRECIP DATA BOTH SUGGEST QUITE A
WET PERIOD SHAPING UP. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL AREAL
AND EVEN RIVER FLOODING SHOULD THIS PATTERN COME TO FRUITION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH ALL TERMINALS...AND EXPECT
PRED VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT CU EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT
N/NE FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
GOOD FLYING WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AT THE
TERMINALS EACH MORNING BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION FRI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND PUTTING E NC IN FAVORABLE REGIME FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO MVFR OR
LOWER AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NW WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STALL OFFSHORE TODAY WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER
THIS MORNING BECOMING PREDOMINATELY N/NE 10-15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT
THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE NE TO E AOB 15 KT WED AND THUR WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. THE FRONT RETREATS WESTWARD AS A COASTAL
TROUGH AS EARLY AS LATE THUR NIGHT...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO
SOUTHEAST... THEN SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SW FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL