Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 280451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016




Significant convection is occurring over West Tennessee/Kentucky
this hour as a strong upper trough draws closer to the mid state.
Evening sounding from OHX shows a highly unstable, very moist
environment in place. Lifted index at 00Z was -11, CAPE was 4,568
J/kg & precipitable water was a remarkable 2.08 inches. While the
threat of severe storms is low, there is an increased risk of
localized flooding with the expected thunderstorms later tonight
and tomorrow. HRRR shows active weather lasting through the night
and carrying right into tomorrow, so we`ll leave the grids largely
alone this shift. Will update the public forecast closer to
midnight to lose the evening wording.



Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop around and over
KCKV leading to MVFR/IFR categories. This will persist for the
next hour or two before flight conditions return to VFR leaving
all 3 mid-state terminals with a lull in the precipitation
activity. Around 12Z however, an upper level disturbance will help
to being developing more showers and thunderstorms that will
persist throughout Thursday. Flight categories will fluctuate
through the day with the heavier rains, but plenty of IFR flight
categories will be seen. Conditions should begin to improve after
sunset Thursday evening.

Winds will be light with mainly a south to southwest component.


Flash Flood Watch through late Thursday night FOR Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Hickman-Houston-



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