Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 201301

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
701 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017




Upper level ridging is currently centered over our area and with
just a few cirrus clouds around some fog has developed. Patchy fog
will be with us through the early daylight hours. Today will be
another warm day for February ahead of our next chance of rain
tomorrow. An upper trough will slowly work eastward and a closed
low will develop tonight over southeast TX. Latest NAM is not as
quick to close the trough leading to more QPF up our way.
Regardless, showers should hold off until the daylight hours on
Tuesday as the upper trough/low moves southeastward.

A couple of stray showers could linger in the morning on
Wednesday. Otherwise, the warm pattern will continue. Thursday
should be mainly dry, but GFS is producing some QPF with a subtle
disturbance, so a slight chance of showers was left in the

Winds will begin to pick up Thursday evening as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of the next system. By Friday afternoon,
we could have some gusts 25-30 mph. A fairly deep sfc low will
lift northeast toward the Great Lakes region as a shortwave trough
swings to a negative tilt orientation during the day on Friday.
Both the GFS and Euro have backed of the precipitation this far
south of the system. Still, if we can get enough lift, there will
be some instability and shear in place for a couple of storms
which could be strong. A weak cold front will pass through our
area Friday night ushering in some temperatures more normal for
this time of year for the start of the weekend.

High pressure will build in during the day on Saturday with zonal
flow aloft. This will result in a nice, dry weekend. Southwesterly
flow aloft returns on Sunday with temperatures once again climbing
above normal. Another trough will approach from the central plains
early next week bringing another chance of rain.



Light fog across the area expected to lift by 14-15Z...with VFR
conditions largely the remainder of the period. However...a
storm system will approach the area late tonight. A few showers
may occur CKV toward 12z/Tue...with cigs possible dropping into
MVFR levels.





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