Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 021116
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
516 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...BNA AND CKV WILL HAVE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...WITH CSV STAYING MOSTLY IFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NE NEAR 10KT
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP. CIGS
WILL LOWER AGAIN...MAINLY MVFR...AND SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP LATE IN
THE NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED ALONG THE PLATEAU
AND SOUTHEAST...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG FARTHER WEST. THE RAIN
CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE AROUND FREEZING ALONG
THE NORTH TIER. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A PATCH OF ICE HERE OR
THERE...BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS FALLING IN THE FREEZING
TEMPS...AND NO MAJOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO MID TN. THE FRONT WILL ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUR MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WX AS
MUCH COLDER AIR SLAMS INTO MID TN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ENHANCING LIFT
ACROSS THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW PREVAILING BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (WITH SOME SLEET) COULD ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE MID STATE. AT THIS TIME WE THINK INTO
WARNING CRITERIA (MORE THAN 3)...BUT WE WANT TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT BEFORE ISSUING A WATCH...MAYBE LATER TODAY IF MODEL
SUPPORT CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE SOME ICE POTENTIAL...BUT THIS
EVENT LOOKS LIKE MORE SNOW THAN ICE FOR MID TN. MANY QUESTIONS
REMAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE...BUT WE ARE
HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT EVEN IF ACCUMULATIONS UNDER PERFORM...THIS
EVENT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS AS POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET...AND ROADS BECOME SNOW/ICE COVERED AND SLICK. IMPACTS
WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CREEP INTO THE FAR EXTENDED...SO BLENDING WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES DEVELOPING NEXT
WEEKEND.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





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