Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 280059
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
900 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...

A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...CENTERED THIS EVENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DRIFTS EAST.
EAST-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW A RESULT OF THIS HIGH AND A LINGERING TROUGH
LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC COAST WILL FILTER DRIER AIR INTO MOST OF
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...AND MORE SO ON FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR SE COUNTIES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FETCH ORIGINATES OVER THE
ATLANTIC...DRAWING SOME MOISTURE INLAND...RESULTING IN AREAS OF
STRATUS. ENOUGH SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 925-850 MB MAY STILL
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN VICINITY OF THE SE COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE MON TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 3-5
DEGREES COOLER. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH UPPER
60S OVER THE FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL START TO BUILD
TOWARD THE EAST COAST... AND THE REMAINING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO
OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF INTO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE DAY... AND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS PWS REMAIN AROUND 1" ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN GULF STATES WILL EJECT NORTH AS IT IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE RETROGRESSING ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NC
ON SUNDAY...INCREASING CONVECTIVE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA DURING MAX HEATING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT HIGH
CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH UP THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL THICKEN AND LOWER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE LIFTS TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDINESS...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO KICK OFF THE WORK
WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO
FORCING OF NOTE...AND WE ALSO REMAIN BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO FURTHER HINDER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHOULD
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
INDUCE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE MID WEEK PERIOD...NO SURPRISE HERE...WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT
UPON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. ONGOING TRACK FORECAST BRINGS
IT NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAVE US IN THE
WARM AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY QUADRANT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE DAY 7
FORECAST AS THE TC OR REMNANTS THEREOF WILL BE CUT OFF FROM STEERING
FLOW AND MIGHT MEANDER SLIGHTLY INLAND...EDGE FURTHER OFFSHORE...OR
WANDER OFF TO POINTS UNFORESEEN AT THIS TIME. AS SUCH...WILL FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER PENDING LATER GUIDANCE. HIGHS WED AND THU WILL BE
PERSISTENCE IN THE UNCHANGED AIRMASS...PERHAPS TEMPERED A BIT BY THE
CLOUD SHIELD...LOOKING AT MOSTLY MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD/EXTEND INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... WITH
THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE COAST... WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT... WITH ANY SUB-VFR CIGS
PRIMARILY AT KFAY... GENERALLY IN THE 08-15Z TIMEFRAME. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP TO BE VFR. ANY SUB-VFR STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST AT KFAY. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINLY DIURNAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...77/30



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