Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 300014
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. EVEN WITH EXTREMELY DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE
(SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS)...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...ROUGHLY BETWEEN
09-16Z. POPS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. QPF VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S BEFORE LEVELING OUT
OR EVEN RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
INCREASES. THERE COULD BE A SHORT WINDOW WHEN TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 35 DEGREES PARTICULARLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...
WITH INCREASING WINDS AND THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. IF WINDS DO DECOUPLE FOR A
LONGER TIME FRAME...A SHORT FUSED FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATE MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT MAY INITIATE A PERIOD OF OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS OVER OUR
REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CROSS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL SET-UP A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW. THE RESULTANT SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID TO BOOST TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
CENTRAL NC PRETTY UNEVENTFUL AS ATMOSPHERE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP
GENERATION. BULK OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO
OUR NORTH. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DOES EXTEND SWD INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH EFFECTS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN VERSUS THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT MID-UPPER 40S. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY LOW-MID 60S
NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...DEPICTING A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTING ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE SE U.S. MEANWHILE A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NC BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
BULK OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
OCCUR MORE TO OUR WEST-SW...WITH SHOWER GENERATION DECREASING
FARTHER EAST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THE
MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD PERMIT TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE. IF SUN IS MORE PREVALENT THAN
CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COULD SEE TEMPS REACH/SLIGHTLY EXCEED 80
DEGREES OVER TEH SE HALF.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-SE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...POSSIBLY EXITING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID
DAY SATURDAY (BASED ON SLOWER GFS). APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
WILL OCCUR WEST-NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH INCREASING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD MAXIMIZE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
DEPENDENT ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND CLOUD THICKNESS. POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPS TO REACH 80 AGAIN IN THE FAR SE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS ARE DELAYED. SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY IN
THE FAR NORTH-NW DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH SHOWER THREAT DIMINISHING NW-
SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EASTER SUNDAY AT THIS TIME APPEARS DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY...

CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR
THEN IFR CONDITIONS MON MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH MVFR
VSBYS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...
BRINGING POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR 4-6 HOURS... STARTING AROUND
12Z AT INT/GSO... AROUND 13Z-14Z AT RDU... AND AROUND 15Z-16Z AT
RWI/FAY. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AROUND 16Z
AT INT/GSO... AROUND 18Z AT RDU... AND AROUND 19Z-21Z AT FAY/RWI...
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. ANOTHER
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THE 1200-1800 FT AGL
LAYER... POTENTIALLY UP TO 40-50 KTS FROM THE SW. WHILE WE MAY NOT
NECESSARILY MEET LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA... WITH SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE SW AT JUST 8-12 KTS... THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED WITH
HEIGHT MAY CAUSE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND DIFFICULTY HANDLING SOME
AIRCRAFT. THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIME FRAME.

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z TUE (EARLY MON EVENING)... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH WED NIGHT... ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING CAUSING A SHIFT IN
SURFACE WINDS. THE RETURN OF THIS FRONT FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH A FEW SHOWERS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRD/DJF
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



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