Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 291426
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1026 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP FROM THE TRIAD DOWN
TO STANLEY COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE QUICK TO DISSIPATE SO FAR AND
ARE TRAVELING NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. WE DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT FROM THESE SHOWERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE OR WIND FORECASTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID AND
FOLLOWS. -ELLIS

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION
WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED...
WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. -77

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A
LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR
HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...

...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY CONTINUED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER... A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND VISBYS ARE
EXPECTED AT KGSO AND KINT THIS MORNING... BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING/AROUND NOON. ELSEWHERE... WE MAY SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOP IN THE 1K TO 2K FOOT RANGE FROM 12Z TO 15/16Z... BUT MAY
REMAIN MORE SCATTERED THAN BROKEN.

ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFT/EVE (19-02Z)... BEST
CHANCES AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS. HOWEVER... COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...77/VINCENT



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