Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 240611

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
109 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Strong high pressure aloft will be over the region today. The ridge
will shift east and offshore in advance of a cold front that will
cross the area on Saturday. Expect near record warmth ahead of the
front, with cooler temperatures on Sunday.


As of 109 AM FRIDAY...

The hi-res models seem to be failing as they are overdoing fog
development. Most likely - due to one of the driest February`s on
record. Dry ground in most areas is not favorable for widespread
dense fog development under high pressure aloft. Therefore, we will
update to trend toward much less fog, except in low lying areas that
cool to saturation more quickly. Temperatures ranged from the mid
40s rural areas into the lower 60s in urban areas at 100 am. This
huge spread is typical in clear nights with light and variable winds
under high pressure. Lows generally expected to be in the 40s,
except 50-55 urban centers.


As of 315 PM THURSDAY...

Strong mid/upper level ridging and associated sinking air will
combine with strengthening southerly return flow and dry soil
conditions to make Friday day two of three of near record warmth
across the region. Low-level thicknesses Friday afternoon are
forecast to be aoa 1380 meters, which is 50 meters above normal and
more representative of late April/early May, as opposed to late
February. Highs should approach 80 in many areas, with mid 70s NW.

Expect another warm night with an increase in mid and high clouds
from the west during the predawn hours as the front progress
eastward in the southern and central Appalachians. Lows in the mid
to upper 50s, which could challenge record hi-min temps(warmest


As of 355 PM Thursday...

A cold front will cross the region on Saturday late in the day as a
low pressure system moves into Quebec. Since the frontal passage
will be later, this will allow high temperatures to soar no near 80
degrees in the southeast with low to mid 70s across the NW Piedmont.
Moisture with this system is limited but will be greatest along the
VA border. This is where the most rain could be expected which could
be up to a half of an inch in heavier showers but the majority of
locations will see less than a tenth of an inch. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible along the front as well as there will
be some instability but also a cap in the mid-levels to try to
overcome. Saturday night skies will clear out and the temperature
will drop significantly into the mid 30s to low 40s for overnight

Sunday and Monday will be mostly dry as surface high pressure moves
over the area with a warming trend for temperatures that will top
out in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees on Sunday but climb back into
the 60-70 degree range on Monday with coolest temps in the NW and
warmest in southeastern counties.

Guidance really begins to break down from Monday night really
through the rest of the period as differences in timing and
intensity of several systems affect the forecast next week. In
general, two systems are expected to move across the area, the first
a southern stream wave that develops into a low pressure system.
Second will be a low over the plains that drags a cold front across
the area near the end of the work week. As a result must keep rain
chances in the forecast from Monday night onward through Thursday
but wouldn`t expect it to rain that entire time. Instead expect one
shot of rain and potentially thunder midweek and a second near the
end of the week. Future model runs will iron out these differences
to give a clearer picture over the next couple of days.


As of 1255 AM Friday...

24 Hour TAF Period: Strong high pressure aloft will build over the
region today, while surface high pressure continues to extend into
the area. This will result in mainly VFR conditions for the 24 hour
TAF period. However, with mostly clear skies and calm to light and
variable winds we may see some fog or very low stratus develop this
morning, especially at fog prone KRWI (where IFR/LIFR conditions
will be possible). Elsewhere, expect we may see some MVFR/IFR visbys
around daybreak. Any sub-VFR visbys should quickly lift within an
hour of sunrise or so. However, we may see a brief period of MVFR
stratocumulus from 13-16Z, before and cigs lift into the VFR range
and further scatter. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with
south to southeasterly winds of 08 kts or less.

Outlook: VFR conditions should hold through Fri evening, but once
again sub-VFR stratus/fog are expected to form across central NC
late Fri night, most likely after 08z, and these should trend to VFR
before 14z Sat. A few showers and isolated storms are possible Sat
afternoon, mainly INT/GSO/RDU, as a cold front crosses the area,
however VFR conditions will dominate. VFR conditions will return Sat
night, lasting through at least Mon as high pressure builds into and
over the region. The chance for sub-VFR conditions and a few showers
will return Mon night into Tue as a warm front shifts northward
through the area.





NEAR TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...BSD/Hartfield is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.