Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 010207
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT... LEADING TO A
WARM AND HUMID FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL STALL OUT OVER
THE APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... BRINGING WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

LATEST SURFACE MAPS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SNAKING FROM SW
NC ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER... DENOTED BY A GRADIENT IN THETA-E AND
MLCAPE. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE SW PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... FED BY STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE... GENERATING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SOME SMALL HAIL... WITH AREAS SOUTH AND WEST
OF CLT SEEING THE WORST OF IT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. RAIN AND
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REST OF THE WRN PIEDMONT
INCLUDING THE TRIAD... FOLLOWING THE TREND OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND IMPROVING DYNAMICS NEAR THE NORTHEAST-RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE...
AND HAVE MAINTAINED (WITH MINOR CHANGES IN COVERAGE AND ORIENTATION)
A TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH PW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO
SURGE FURTHER OVERNIGHT... AND WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE GROWING OVER
WRN/CENTRAL NC AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS... WILL BEEF UP QPF
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPEED UP CELL MOVEMENT WHICH WOULD HELP LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT... ALTHOUGH SOME TRAINING OF CELLS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE... ELEVATING RAIN TOTALS LOCALLY. HAVE HELD ONTO LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NE TO MID 60S SW. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME POTENTIAL TO BREAK UP
BACK TO VFR AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE THE
PRIMARY PROBLEM FOR FLIGHT RULES WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOW
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR/LIFT AFTER
CEILINGS DROP BELOW THE IFR THRESHOLD UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...PUTTING
CENTRAL NC BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING MANY CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS


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