Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 281637
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1237 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK
A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING WEATHER MAP SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE STILL POSITIONED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA. LAPS
SOUNDINGS CONFIRM MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST BELOW AN INCH BUT SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BELOW 30000 FT.

ANOTHER WARM BUT RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
NO CHANCE OF RAIN DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE. HOWEVER WITH
PW VALUES STILL LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...AND WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MID 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 10C
INDICATING SOME CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WITH A PREDOMINATE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT
AGS. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS... SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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