Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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487
FXUS62 KCAE 152339
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
739 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area Monday bringing chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area. Behind the cold
front high pressure will usher in much cooler and drier air
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Showers just west of the cwa dissipating with the loss of
heating. One more mild night on tap ahead of an approaching cold
front.

Models in reasonable agreement showing the front pushing into
the forecast area just before 12z and reaching CAE around 12z.
Increasing isentropic lift ahead of the front and weak moisture
transport along and ahead of the front warrant increasing
chance pops during the 09z-12z time frame. Virtually non-
existent instability during the predawn hours so only mentioning
showers at this time through 12z.

Still expect to see the redevelopment of fog/stratus late
tonight, though stratus may be more favored with increasing
boundary layer winds ahead of the front. Overnight lows expected
in the middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A strong cold front will move through the region Monday,
bringing rain to the area. Rain will move into the central
Midlands by sunrise, and then the eastern Midlands by
afternoon. The front will be through the forecast area by late
evening, and rain will come to an end. A quarter to a half inch
of rain is possible through early afternoon, with locally
heavier amounts. As drier air moves in behind the front, rain
will become light by late afternoon. Potential for
thunderstorms remains low as heating will be very limited as
cold air advection overspreads the western Midlands by late
morning and the eastern Midlands by early afternoon. Have
included isolated thunderstorms across the central and eastern
Midlands where limited heating will result with weak
instability. The frontal passage also means that temperatures
will reach the daytime highs by midday, then fall through the
afternoon hours. High temperatures will range from upper 60s in
the north to mid 70s in the south.

Behind the front, high pressure will build into the forecast
area along with much cooler and drier air. Have kept Monday
night dry with skies becoming mostly clear. High pressure will
continue building into the region Tuesday and Tuesday night
with northeasterly winds continuing to usher cooler and drier
air into the forecast area. Temperatures on Tuesday will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s, and Tuesday night`s lows will fall
into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models remain in excellent agreement that high pressure will
dominate the region through Saturday. This will keep cooler and
drier air over the region with the high becoming centered over
the Tennessee Valley by Thursday. This will result in northerly
winds diminishing and the air mass moderating slightly each day.
By Friday and Saturday, high temperatures will be near 80s
degrees. As the high shifts east and off the coast on Saturday,
the low level flow will become more easterly, and moisture will
start to increase. The area will remain dry, but low and mid-
level clouds will also start to increase.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR in the near term. Frontal boundary and associated shower
activity and restrictions expected to affect the TAF sites late
tonight through Monday morning, gradually shifting out of the
forecast area during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, an
increasing boundary layer flow out of the SW, along with the
potential for some mid and high level cloudiness to stream in,
is expected to preclude significant fog formation, though some
stratus possible, mainly at the southernmost TAF sites.
Shifting winds expected with the fropa.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No impacts to aviation expected
Monday night through Thursday as drier air filters in behind the
front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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