Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 250216
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS WITH LI VALUES NEAR -1. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BRINGING MOISTURE AND LOW
CEILINGS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT OGB UNTIL 4Z. THE MAIN
ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE LOW CEILINGS. THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN
CLOUDS SEEN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR
CEILINGS AT OGB AND MVFR AT AGS AND DNL. UNSURE AT THIS TIME WHETHER
CAE AND CUB WILL FALL INTO MVFR BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA TUESDAY SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST. OGB WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE RAIN STARTING AROUND 8Z FOLLOWED
BY THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AIRPORTS RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TRAVELS
UP THE COAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.