Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 161746
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
146 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S LATE TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
JUST A BIT. AS A RESULT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP NEAR FREEZING...SO A FREEZE WARNING IS NOT WARRANTED.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BUT AM
LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. GFS KEEPS AN INVERTED TROF ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDLANDS WHILE HE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER
OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. BOTH
MODELS DO HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN WE
WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL KEEP MENTION OF -SHRA FOR ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO
30 KTS POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRIER AND COOLER AIR ENTERING THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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