Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 250348
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER THREAT OF WINTRY WEATHER. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS FROM NEAR ATHENS TO MACON AND SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD. THE
LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG COULD IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES SO
HAVE RAISED THEM A DEGREE OR TWO AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TREND.

STILL SOME POSSIBLE BLACK ICE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT IN AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN OR FALL BELOW FREEZING AND THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ISSUED EARLIER ADDRESSES THAT CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN SOME INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AS 18Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO EVALUATE 00Z MODEL DATA WHICH
INCLUDES UPPER AIR RAOB DATA TO DETERMINE WHAT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL OPEN
AND SHIFT RAPIDLY ENE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST REGION
WED...ACROSS OUR REGION WED NT...AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
EARLY THU. SURFACE LOW TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WED TO
THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE WED NT/EARLY THU. RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO GOOD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SPREADING INTO THE CSRA BY
LATE WED AFTN...OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FA WED NT...AND EXITING
THE FA EARLY THU.

MODEL CONSENSUS LOW TRACK IS TOO FAR NORTH TO PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT FOR COLUMBIA METRO AND POINTS SOUTH...BUT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...A THREAT EXISTS. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR
OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WED NT.

AFTER A THOROUGH REVIEW OF MODEL INFORMATION AND COORDINATION CALL
WITH NATIONAL AND REGIONAL OFFICES...DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN FIVE COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN SC FOR
WED NT/EARLY THU. SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE MIDWEST FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND/POSSIBLE WEDGE SET UP WITH TROUGH/WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PROMOTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN A WARM UP EXPECTED AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT AS RIDGE MOVES
OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FOG AND LOW CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DETERIORATION TO LIFR FOR ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPECT FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM AROUND 17Z ONWARD.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA VERY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020>022.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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