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000
FXUS62 KCAE 181024
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
624 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING
MORE UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS TODAY.
LOWEST POPS 20-30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHEAST FARTHEST AWAY FROM
APPROACHING TROUGH. 30-40 PERCENT MIDLANDS INCLUDING CAE BUT 40
GOING ON UP TO 50 PERCENT NORTHWEST PORTION CLOSEST TO UPPER
TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WHILE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR N/NE. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY PROGGED. LOW/MID LEVEL JET AND SHEAR
WEAK. CLOUDINESS COULD INHIBIT INSOLATION/INSTABILITY. ARRAY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL
IS ALWAYS HARD TO RULE OUT. 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS OUR FA IN
GENERAL. VIL OF THE DAY 57.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH STALLED OUT TO THE NORTH
WITH THE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MAY ALSO GIVE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE MOS CONSENSUS.
UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT STILL AFFECT THE REGION BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP A WARM AND GENERALLY MOIST AIR MASS OVER
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT LESS THAN EARLY IN THE WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MORE SUMMER-LIKE
REGIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATE...CONFIDENCE INCREASING OF RAIN AFFECTING TERMINALS THIS
MORNING BASED ON RADAR LOOPS AND LATEST HIGH RES MODELS...THOUGH
INTENSITY MAY BE LIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIG/VSBYS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY STRETCHING ACROSS NW SC AND N/CENT GA.
ACTIVITY MAKING  SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS OUR FA...AND APPEARS WILL
AFFECT TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO
GROUP.

OTHERWISE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TODAY...WHILE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO OUR N/NE.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROGGED TO INCREASE. WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED. ARRAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...WILL HANDLE
PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH A VCSH MENTION FOR MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND
EXTENT OF ANY RAIN...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$