Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 310255
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1055 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST GA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MIDLANDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL
HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE.

GIVEN CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ONLY A FEW MORE
DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS S/W MOVING WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THIS BAND
LOOKS TO BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 1 AM TO 2 AM...THEN EXPECT
CEILINGS/VSBYS TO LOWER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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