Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 192347
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
747 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will slowly approach from the northwest overnight and
stall over the region Tuesday, while atmospheric moisture
increases, leading to increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms for much of this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The seabreeze and outflow boundaries continuing to aide in
scattered convective initiation this evening. DCAPE remains
high at around 1000 J/kg for portions of the area so cannot rule
out an isolated damaging wind threat with storms. A front will
be pushing through and east of the Appalachians, possibly
stalling out across the central Midlands by Tuesday morning. PW
values will continue to increase ahead of the surface front.
Expecting scattered showers and storms to occur for much of the
night as the front approaches the cwa. Can not rule out strong
winds and heavy rainfall in some of the storms overnight.
Overnight lows falling into the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Atmospheric moisture is progged to continue increasing, with
projected precipitable water values a quite high 2-2.25 inches
as moisture streams up from the eastern GOMEX and meets up with
enhanced moisture tracking SE into our region with the
approaching frontal system. As a result, POPs will be ramping up
Tuesday with model consensus POPs in the likely category.
Locally heavy rain will be a threat given the high PW with any
persistent slow moving or training cells. Daytime highs will
only be in the lower 80s at most locations due to cloud cover,
with lows Tuesday night in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some uncertainty continues with model differences in handling
potential tropical system in the GOMEX, which may be a major
weather factor early in the extended period. In addition, a
frontal system in the upper Midwest will slowly move SE towards
the Southeast by Monday. These two weather systems will help to
keep atmospheric moisture high across the area for much of the
period. Plan to keep mainly high chance pops into Monday,
although most of the convection may be primarily diurnally
driven. Temperatures will be mostly below normal Wednesday and
Thursday, and near normal Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Moisture will continue to increase through this evening as a
frontal boundary currently situated over the western Appalachian
region approaches from the northwest. Isolated/scattered showers
and thunderstorms will continue to be possible as the sea-
breeze slowly pushes inland through the evening. Activity may
diminish towards midnight, but additional showers will be
possible towards sunrise and through the day Tuesday as the
frontal boundary moves closer to the area and stalls. Ceilings
are expected to deteriorate to MVFR early Tuesday morning with
showers and continue throughout the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Models indicate widespread
restrictions particularly to ceilings Tuesday night into
Thursday associated with a stalled frontal boundary in the area
and high atmospheric moisture. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected. Restrictions will also be possible
Friday and Saturday but mainly in afternoon/evening convection.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR transmitter in Wrens, GA serving portions of the CSRA
remains out of service.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
EQUIPMENT...



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