Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 281515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT.
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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