Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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535
FXUS62 KCAE 101939
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
239 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry high pressure will be over the region today through
Monday night with temperatures well below normal. A dry cold
front will cross the region Tuesday with high pressure and
reinforcing cold air building in Wednesday and Wednesday night.
High pressure will remain in control through the end of the week
with temperatures continuing below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An Upper level trough will hold across the eastern CONUS with
surface high pressure extending from the Gulf of Mexico into the
southeastern states. This will keep a cold and dry airmass
across the region with clear skies. High temperatures this
afternoon will range from the mid to upper 40s.

For tonight, winds should become less than 5 mph. Bufkit shows
a 30 knot low level jet overnight, so ideal radiational cooling
is not anticipated. Should see lows in the mid 20s to around 30
degrees...and slightly warmer along lake shores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS on Monday and
Tuesday while a clipper system ejects out of Canada and across
the southern Great Lakes region toward New England. This system
will bring a dry cold front through the forecast area Tuesday.
Ahead of the front on Monday, dry high pressure will ridge into
the area. Southwesterly surface winds will allow the air mass
to moderate on Monday with highs around 8-10 degrees warmer than
on Sunday, in the 50s. Models show increasing clouds in the
northern portion of the area Monday night, with low temperatures
generally in the middle to upper 30s. High temperatures on
Tuesday will be a couple of degrees cooler than Monday in the
western portion of the area as cold air advection increases in
the wake of the front. Lows Tuesday night are forecast in the
20s under mostly clear skies, although mixing should prevent
ideal radiational cooling conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement Wednesday and Thursday,
but differences start to emerge by Friday. An upper trough will
remain over the eastern CONUS through Thursday with surface
high pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico ridging into the
forecast area providing dry weather. A cold front will move
through the forecast area late Thursday/early Friday, but
moisture appears limited so have maintained a dry forecast. The
ECMWF brings a southern stream upper trough into the area
Saturday with an area of low pressure deepening along the
Southeast Coast. The GFS takes the trough axis off the coast
late Friday and shows weak upper ridging over the area Saturday
with surface high pressure ridging into the area from the south.
Given such stark differences, have made little change to the
forecast Saturday and Sunday. Overall, expect mainly near to
below normal temperatures throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence for VFR through the period.

High pressure building into the area from the Gulf coast
region will hold a dry air mass over the region with clear
skies. Winds will be westerly less than 10 knots. Fog is not
forecasted tonight due to a dry air mass and 30 knot low level
jet.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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