Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 200238
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
937 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE
REGIONS WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
AREA. A WEAK AND DRY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT...AND MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND TO KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY
INDICATES TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. DRY FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY. E CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
THURSDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME THURSDAY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY PUSHING EAST INTO THE
E CONUS BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE SE CONUS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST
SATURDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. CONTINUED
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY. WITH MODELS MAINTAINING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A SW UPPER FLOW CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY...WITH CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT ROLLING
THROUGH...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS MONDAY. GFS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING W/SW 10-12 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE HAVE OCCURRED THIS
MORNING.

MORNING LOW TEMPERATURE AT COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT WAS 20 DEGREES.
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURE AT AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD WAS 15 DEGREES. THIS
WAS ALSO THE EARLIEST DATE THAT A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF LESS THAN
20 DEGREES (IN THE TEENS) HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT AUGUSTA. THE PRIOR
EARLIEST DATE WAS NOVEMBER 21ST 1951 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE FELL TO
19 DEGREES.

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR 11/19...
COLUMBIA...22 DEGREES SET IN 2008,1891.
AUGUSTA....22 DEGREES SET IN 2008.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR COLUMBIA GO BACK TO 1887 AND FOR AUGUSTA
BACK TO 1873. PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR COLUMBIA GO BACK TO 1878 AND
FOR AUGUSTA BACK TO 1871.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.