Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 220657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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