Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 231736
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1236 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure centered in the Bahamas will be moving farther off
the Southeast Coast Friday. A cold front approaching from the
northwest will move through the forecast area Saturday. Little
moisture will be associated with the front but it will be
breezy. Dry high pressure will dominate early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure near the Florida East Coast will be moving farther
off the Southeast Coast tonight with ridging becoming more
dominate in the forecast area. Low-level moisture in the onshore
flow associated with the low combined with heating could
possibly help support showers in the forecast area this
afternoon, but with just shallow moisture and building upper
ridging the chance should remain very low. The high-resolution
models display isolated shower coverage at most. Observation
trends support highs near 80 this afternoon.

The main forecast concern tonight is the fog potential. There
should be lingering low-level moisture associated with the
onshore flow. The models indicate less boundary layer wind
compared to the previous night and aloft it should be drier
associated with the upper ridging. All the NAM and GFS MOS plus
SREF guidance indicate fog. There may be a period of dense fog
during the early morning hours. The temperature guidance was
close with lows in the lower and middle 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure will be over the area Friday then move
offshore Friday evening as strong low pressure moving into the
Great Lakes pushes a cold front through the Gulf States. Clouds
will move into the late Friday night with the cold front moving
into the forecast area Saturday morning. The cold front will
march through the area by early afternoon with cooler and drier
air moving in behind the front Saturday night. Concern with
fropa is the limited moisture with the front and the main
dynamics remaining north of the area. As such have remained with
low chance pops in the northern Midlands and slight chance
elsewhere. Temperatures will be well above normal Friday with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s...temperature records for
Friday at CAE is 81 degrees and for AGS 82 degrees, both set in
1985. High temperatures Saturday will be in the lower 70s in the
western Midlands with middle to upper 70s elsewhere. Overnight
lows will be in the middle 50s Friday night and upper 30s to
lower 40s Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure along with cooler and drier air will be over the
region Sunday and Monday with the next low pressure system
moving into the area late Monday and Tuesday. Although the
models differ on timing and intensity for Tuesday and Wednesday
the pattern will remain active and have slight chance to chance
pops for Monday night through Wednesday. Temperatures through
the long term will remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through this evening. The main
concern is fog during the early morning hours Friday.

Low pressure near the Florida East Coast will be moving farther
off the Southeast Coast tonight with ridging becoming more
dominate in the forecast area. Low-level moisture in the onshore
flow associated with the low combined with heating could
possibly help support showers in the forecast area this
afternoon, but with just shallow moisture and building upper
ridging the chance should remain very low. The high-resolution
models display isolated shower coverage at most.

The main forecast concern tonight is the fog potential. There
should be lingering low-level moisture associated with the
onshore flow. The models indicate less boundary layer wind
compared to the previous night and aloft it should be drier
associated with the upper ridging. All the NAM and GFS MOS plus
many SREF members indicate IFR fog developing. Heating and
mixing should result in a return to VFR conditions later Friday
morning. We followed the GFS LAMP for the timing.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front with limited moisture
will bring breezy conditions Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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