Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 211505
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1105 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
A series of surface fronts will track just north of the forecast
area through Thursday. The chance for showers and afternoon
thunderstorms will stay mainly along our northern counties. Models
push another front into the Mid-Atlantic Friday, lingering over
the weekend, providing a chance of thunderstorms.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today, Surface high will be off the southeast coast, keeping
surface winds on the backside of the high breezy and out of the
south to southwest. Even with warmer afternoon temperatures and a
slight increase in low-level moisture, precip is not expected this
afternoon. The moisture remains shallow and total PW values still
too dry with readings below 1.5 inches. To top it all off, Bufkit
sounding data from many models indicate a strong warm nose/cap
still in place around 700 mb. Afternoon high temperatures will be
mainly in the lower to middle 90s across the area, which is close
to model consensus.
Tonight, Winds decrease some, but still expecting a light
southwest flow through the night. Although the scattered cumulus
will dissipate by sunset, still expecting a few high clouds to be
streaming over the region. Overnight lows continue to warm from
previous nights readings, with temperatures bottoming out
generally around 70 degrees for many areas.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
There will be a warming trend over the period as the upper level
ridge shifts further east. Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s
are expected by mid-week. Models indicate a series of ill defined
surface boundaries tracking along the northern portion of our
area. Slight moisture advection and an upper level shortwave
supports the chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday, mainly across
the northern Midlands.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Few changes to the extended forecast at this time. The models
have been consistent bringing another surface front into the
region late this week. The front is expected to move slowly
through the area Friday or Saturday and stall across the area over
the weekend. Limited moisture advection and an upper level
pressure ridge centered over the Southeast suggests a slight
chance to chance of diurnal thunderstorms. There is some
uncertainty as to where the front will stall, which would have a
significant impact on precipitation chances. Temperatures during
the period are expected to be near normal.
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence for VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Relatively dry high pressure will remain over the region. Any
chance for showers or storms will remain well off to the north and
west of the cwa and taf sites through the period. As for clouds,
mainly scattered mid-level cumulus expect this afternoon.
Increasing surface pressure gradient across the area will result
in southwest winds around 10 knots, with a few higher gusts
possible in the afternoon. Mixing in the boundary layer tonight
will limit fog development.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for mainly diurnal
convection will increase Friday and Saturday.