Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 251024
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
624 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
A slow moving upper low will begin to lift away from the
forecast area today. Dry weather and above normal temperatures
will return by the middle of the week as high pressure takes
control. A cold front could affect the area early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level low is currently located over eastern South
Carolina while surface low is located along the north coast.
Regional radar showing the continued slow dissipation of showers
beneath the upper low with best moisture advection and rainfall
well to the north across NC. The deeper moisture and higher
precipitable water values have shifted northeast of the forecast
area and will remain to our north so the heavy rain threat has
Upper low will lift northeast over eastern North Carolina today
as 500mb heights rise over the region in its wake. Hi-res models
indicating one last band of rain may develop across the northern
Midlands and Pee Dee region during the morning hours before
precipitation lifts northward away from the area. Will maintain
higher pops across the north with a gradient to lower pops south
and gradually lower pops from south to north through the day.
Extensive cloud cover is expected to remain in place through
much of the day which will keep temperatures down although we
should see highs warmer than yesterday in the 70s along and
south of Columbia while cooler temperatures remain northern
Midlands. An upper ridge will build over the region tonight as
clouds clear supporting overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather and warming temperatures are expected on Wednesday
as an amplifying upper trough over the middle of the country
shifts the upper ridge axis over the forecast area yielding
mostly sunny skies. At the surface, developing southerly flow
will also support warm advection into the region. The
progressive upper trough will breakdown the upper ridge on
Thursday as a weak front pushes into the forecast area Thursday
night. Moderate moisture advection with a 30-35 knot 850mb
southerly jet will move into the region late Thursday and
Thursday night ahead of the front bringing much higher
precipitable water air with values around 1.6 inches. Will
continue to carry low chance pops mainly west of I-20/I-77. The
best upper forcing will be shifting north of the region and the
loss of daytime heating will limit the rain and thunderstorm
chances. Temperatures during this period will be well above
normal with highs generally in the mid to possibly upper 80s and
lows in the 60s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The boundary that pushed into the area Thursday night will
become diffuse on Friday as the upper ridge over the western
Atlantic rebuilds over the southeastern states. Surface high
pressure also centered over the western Atlantic will direct
a moist southerly flow into the area through the weekend
creating summer like conditions with rising temperatures and
humidity. Yet another deep upper trough will develop over the
Plains by late Saturday with a cold front pushing eastward into
the forecast area sometime late Sunday into Monday. Strong
moisture advection and precipitable water values pushing near
max daily values around 1.75-1.80 inches will support convection
Sunday night and Monday so have increased pop during this
Temperatures through the extended period will be well above
normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper and surface low pressure will continue to slowly pull NE away
from our forecast area. In the near term, patchy drizzle
expected to affect CAE/CUB/OGB. Widespread low cloudiness, with
IFR to MVFR CIGs, will remain over the region this morning,
with gradual improvement to VFR expected from west to east this
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.