Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 190551
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE A BIT OF
HEATING HELP GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT
REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HAVE REMAINED WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY
DAYBREAK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER INDIANA LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS
GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOTED FROM THE CSRA NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STRONG
LIFT EXPECTED WITH AREA UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION 250 MB JET FROM GULF COAST NORTH
ACROSS TENNESSEE. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED EARLY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS AIR MASS BECOMES WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...LOWERED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DESPITE EXPECTED WARM
ADVECTION.


A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...LATEST
MODEL MEAN SUGGESTS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MIDLANDS/CSRA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...-8 TO -10 SFC BASED LIFTED INDEX/ CAPE > 3000 J/JG
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG.
APPEARS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS 0-3KM HODOGRAPHS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THINK MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL DUE TO VERY DRY AIR MID LEVELS AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. LOW POPS BY MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS
ON TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND MORE LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL MENTION CHANCE RAIN NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS ENOUGH TO MENTION PRECIP UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR AT ALL TAF
SITES AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A S/W ENERGY AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH
BY 09Z-11Z AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS OVER THE
TERMINALS INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SOLAR INSOLATION BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR NEW MODEL RUNS AND COULD ADD THIS TO THE TAFS WITH LATER
UPDATES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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