Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 191023
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. FAIR AND MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF IT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR SHIFT EAST AS THE
DISTURBANCE SWINGS OFF TO OUR EAST LATER THIS MORNING. DRY COLD
FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH...WITH COOL AND
DRY ADVECTION FOR OUR REGION TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH CENTER WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD
BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND CALM
WINDS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES MIN TEMPS AROUND
40 TO LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...BUT SOME UPPER 30S WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE IN A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT TO THE EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME TEMP MODERATION TO NEAR CLIMO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUE/TUE NT. WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...PROVIDING A CONTINUED
FEED OF DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY TROPICAL...COULD FORM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG OLD STALLED FRONTS...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD BE SCARCELY MORE THAN SOME
VERY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. WINDS LIGHT NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON AS
RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS LATER TODAY
LEAVING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH VERY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS NOT ANTICIPATING FOG TONIGHT ATTM.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$



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