Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 261026
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION. MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NOCTURNAL COOLING
AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD HELP SUPPORT PATCHY FOG MAINLY NEAR BODIES
OF WATER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE NEAR THE AREA. THE PATTERN SUPPORTED THE WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT PATCHY FOG MAINLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOWED A COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. THE ECMWF INDICATED MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS. WE LEANED TOWARD
THE LOWER GFS MOS POPS BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL DRYNESS. ALSO...
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARED WEAK. THE MODELS INDICATED MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND BEHIND A
REINFORCING DRY FRONT. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

A DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE. CAE VAD WIND PROFILE THIS MORNING
SHOWING A 20 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...LATEST
SURFACE OBS FROM AGS INDICATING MVFR/BRIEF IFR FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MENTION MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING.

THE TROUGH OR WEAK DRY FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST
TOWARDS OUR NE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FOG POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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