Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 200920
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
420 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Much above normal temperatures will continue through the end of
the week. High pressure centered off the coast will bring warm
and moist air into region through Saturday. The chance for
showers remains low through Saturday. A cold front will cross
the region early next week, bringing a better chance for
showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Widespread fog and low clouds will linger through mid-morning.
High resolution models indicated improving visibilities around
10 am. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 am.

Surface high pressure off the coast will advect a warm and moist
airmass into the region. Although cloudy skies this morning
will be slow to clear...some sunshine is expected this
afternoon. Upper level ridging into the Southeast will inhibit
convective development...so showers are unlikely today. Afternoon
highs will be range from the lower 70s north to around 80 from
the Central Midlands on south.

A weak upper-level disturbance will move northward into the SC
Piedmont tonight. The disturbance may support a few showers
across the western part of the forecast area. Conditions appear
favorable for fog development again tonight given mid level dry
air combined with abundant low level moisture and light winds.
Mild temperatures will continue with lows in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain anchored off
the southeast coast. An onshore low level flow will continue a
warm and moist airmass over the region. Cannot rule out
scattered showers across the western part of the forecast
area...through main support for showers will remain well to our
west. Kept slight a slight chance for showers cross the western
Midlands and northern portion of the CSRA. Main weather story
continues to be warm temperatures. Should see highs in the upper
70s and lower 80s with lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper level ridge off the southeast coast begins to move
southward Friday...signaling a pattern change for early next
week. Mainly dry weather is forecast for Friday as a frontal
boundary stalls near the NC/VA border. The chance for showers
increases Saturday through Monday as an upper trough over the
western states moves east. The long range models indicate a cold
front crossing the region Sunday with a little cooler
temperatures on Monday. Much above normal temperatures with
highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s are expected to moderate to
the upper 60s and lower 70s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak frontal boundary still extends across the Midlands.
Abundant low-level moisture and convergence along the warm
front with drying aloft associated with upper ridging, plus
nocturnal cooling, have resulted in LIFR fog development. All
sites are 1/4SM except DNL, but the potential still exits for
this site to drop below 1SM this morning. Improvement should
occur later this morning as the front lifts north of the region
as a warm front, along with diurnal heating and mixing.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread IFR stratus and fog may
occur during the early morning hours over the next few days due
to high low-level moisture in an onshore flow.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$


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