Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 230936
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
436 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE MIDLANDS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. RAIN WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND ACROSS THE
LOW COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL REACH THE OUTER BANKS
TONIGHT AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE AREA SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING
SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF AL/FL WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY...THROUGH THE LOW COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND INTO EASTERN NC
TONIGHT. AREA WSR-88D RETURNS INDICATE LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY FROM
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS SOUTHWARD WITH MODERATE INTENSITY RAIN MOVING
INTO CENTRAL GA. EXPECT THE MODERATE RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE CSRA
AROUND DAYBREAK AND THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM...THEN
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AND AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE LOW COUNTRY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE RAINFALL INTENSITY AGAIN INCREASE.
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE A QUESTION THIS EVENING. MAIN AREA OF
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHEAR WILL
REMAIN STRONG...POSSIBLY TO THE POINT OF TEARING THE ANY
CONVECTION APART. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA FOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY MORNING
AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MOSTLY STEADY THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY
FALLING THIS AFTERNOON AS RAINFALL INCREASES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR. EXPECT TO SEE RAIN END SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA AND THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BY
MID AFTERNOON EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM CROSSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TIMING AND SOUTHERN
REACH OF THE MOISTURE. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN REGARD TO RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WITH HIGHS ON
SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 50S AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN INTENSITY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDS SKIES FOR MONDAY AND
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO
THE AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO RETURNS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS...THEN WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
REGION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BY MORNING.  MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
REGION BY 12Z...THEN BOTH CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR/LIFR BY 16Z AS
HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD RESULT IN STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LLWS DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE JET
AND HOW CLOSE TO THE SURFACE IT GETS. WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY.  FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN
FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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