114
FXUS61 KCAR 120111
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
911 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains across the region tonight into Sunday,
then exits across the Maritimes Monday. A storm system
approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday, crosses the
region Wednesday, then exits across the Maritimes Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9:10 PM Update: Satellite pictures show a partly to mostly
cloudy sky across most of the FA. Clouds are breaking up a bit
with the loss of daytime heating, and as more stable air works
into the region from the east. It is now mainly clear across
most of Washington and Hancock Counties, and a clearing line has
been backing toward eastern Maine from New Brunswick during the
past several hours, and this trend looks to continue. Have
updated the sky grids to reflect the latest trends and expected
conditions for the remainder of the night. The coolest
temperatures are where the clouds have cleared out Downeast and
have lowered the lows and issued a frost advisory for parts of
the area.

Previous discussion:
Surface high pressure lifts north of the Gulf of Saint Lawrence
tonight through Sunday. Aloft, upper level low pressure approaches
tonight, reaching the Gulf of Maine Sunday. Any lingering isolated
showers will end this evening with the loss of diurnal heating.
Diurnal clouds will also diminish early tonight, leaving partly
cloudy/mostly clear skies overnight. Expect partly sunny skies early
Sunday, with a generally partly sunny/mostly cloudy afternoon.
However, isolated afternoon showers are also possible across
west-central and southwest portions of the forecast area. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 30s north,
to the upper 30s to around 40 Downeast. High temperatures Sunday
will range from the upper 50s to around 60 across much of the
forecast area, while ranging through the 50s along the Downeast
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the region Sunday night. Aloft, a
500 MB low will drift across the Gulf of Maine and then toward
the Canadian Maritimes. Expect partly cloudy skies and dry
weather Sunday night with lows in the 40s. The upper low lifts
through the Maritimes on Monday with as high pressure drifts
east into the western Atlantic in advance of an approaching warm
front. Expect partly sunny skies on Monday with afternoon highs
in the 60s. A warm front approaches later Monday night and
crosses the region Tuesday. A cold front will then slowly
approach from the west later Tuesday afternoon. Expect
increasing clouds with a chance of showers Monday night.
Moisture advection will increase during Tuesday in advance of
the approaching cold front. Precipitable water values increase
to around one inch later Tuesday afternoon. Thus, expect a
mainly cloudy sky on Tuesday with an increasing chance for
showers, especially across northern areas. The shower and clouds
will limit Tuesday`s high to the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front slowly crosses the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Weak waves of low pressure moving along the slow moving
boundary brings the likelihood of showers or even a steadier
rain to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Still
uncertainty as to how much southern stream moisture might get
pulled northward along the boundary but it appears as if most
of the area has the potential to see upward of one inch or more
of rainfall during the mid week period. Patchy fog will also be
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. The forecast for
Wednesday night and Thursday hinges on what happens with a
potential stronger area of low pressure that develops in the
southern stream and tracks northeast from the mid atlantic
region later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Latest GFS tracks
the low northeast toward the southwest tip of Nova Scotia
Wednesday night through Thursday, keeping the chance for rain.
The CMC keeps the low well to our south and tracks it east of NJ
out to sea, which is close the GEFS ensemble mean and the 12Z
operational EC. Thus, will trend the forecast toward a drier
pattern later Wednesday night and Thursday per latest NBM pops.
Higher pressure builds in for Thursday night and Friday.
Another system may bring another chance for shower by Saturday.
Afternoon high temperatures will trend toward above normal
levels by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through Sunday. Light and variable
wind through Sunday.

SHORT TERM:

Sunday night through Monday...VFR. Light wind.

Monday night and Tuesday. MVFR. Chance showers. S wind.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR. S to SE wind.
Showers/rain/patchy fog.

Thursday...VFR. N wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below SCA levels Sunday night through
Monday, then possibly approaching SCA by Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ016-017-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/Norcross
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...CB/Norcross/TWD
Marine...CB/Norcross/TWD