000
FXUS61 KCAR 280413
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1213 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly exit to the east overnight into
Sunday. A warm front will cross the region Sunday. A cold front
will cross the region later Sunday into Monday. Low pressure
will approach from the west Tuesday and track south of the Gulf
of Maine into Wednesday. High pressure settles in from the west
and then over the area by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update...
Raised overnight lows a few degrees across the board. Southerly
flow and high/mid level cloud will tend to keep temperatures
from falling too much overnight. Otherwise, not much change
from previous thinking.

Previous discussion:
A weakening warm front will push east into Maine tonight and
begin to washout over the area. Expect increasing high clouds
overnight into tomorrow morning. Light and variable winds
gradually shift southerly but remain generally less than 10mph.
A warmer airmass is moving in so expecting lows tomorrow morning
generally mid to upper 30s with some low 40s in the North Woods
where the thicker clouds keep it warmer. Tomorrow will be mostly
cloudy but a few sunny breaks expected as a cold front settles
southeast into Maine from Quebec. Expecting isolated to
scattered showers to develop from NW to SE across the area by
evening and tracking south into Downeast areas by early evening.
Not expecting a lot of precip with these showers with generally
less than 0.1 inch. During the afternoon closer to the New
Brunswick border will have to monitor the fire weather concerns
given the gusty southerly winds there will be RHs still in the
35-40% range while much of the area seems much higher RH values.
Highs top out in the upper 50s to low 60s across the area
tomorrow with 50-55F along the shore thanks to the wind off the
Gulf of Maine waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday night, the upper level ridge will move eastward and a
cold front will approach from the west. The bulk of the cold air
associated with this system will stay further north. Although
there is some divergence aloft ahead of the front, there is not
a strong southerly connection feeding moisture into this system
either. As a result, the front is not expected the be
particularly strong, and precip will mostly remain in the form
of rain showers across the region. Any development with this
front is expected further south in the warmer air mass, so QPF
amounts should remain in the order of 0.1 to 0.25 for the
region.

Showers will dissipate relatively early on Monday, then high
pressure will move in. The tightening gradient will increase
winds behind the front and Monday will be another gusty
northerly wind day, in particular for the northern areas. This
will usher in slightly cooler temperatures than we saw over the
weekend as well, with highs above 60 held to the southern half
of the forecast area, and mid to upper 50s in the north. Monday
night will be clear and cold since northerly flow will continue
until Tuesday. Overnight lows will be below freezing across the
north and in the mid 30s from the Central Highlands and south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, a shortwave trough will
pass through the area, generating showers. Models have trended
further southward with the bulk of this energy and the chances
of precip across the forecast area have decreased from run to
run. NBM is taking a little bit to catch up with this trend, so
a different blend was used for PoPs to minimize precip across
the north. Upper level ridging is expected to return Wednesday
and Thursday, with temperatures jumping back up into the upper
50s and mid 60s by the end of the week. Some uncertainty remains
in the forecast for the end of the week, with an upper level
low expected to bring showers over the area. There is some
variation on timing between the different model runs. Canadian
is the fastest solution, bringing showers from this low on
Friday. GFS and EC deterministic runs bring this feature through
late Friday and Friday night. Forecast has increasing PoPs for
the end of the week, with the greatest concentration across the
north, where the upper level low will be centered. This will be
a warm system, so high temperatures on Saturday will remain in
the upper 50s even with precip expected.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR with S/SE wind around 5 knots S wind Sat 5-15 kt
with gusts up to 20 kt possible. VFR cigs continues tomorrow
with VCSH/-SHRA expected in the PM. Low chance of MVFR ceilings
toward 00z.

SHORT TERM:

Sun night...MVFR, mainly at N terminals in -SHRA. Primarily VFR
at S terminals. S winds 10 to 15 kts becoming N winds 10 to
20kts with gusts to 25kt.

Mon and Mon night...VFR. N winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 25kt.

Tue and Tue night...VFR north, chance MVFR south in possible
-SHRA. E-NE winds 5-15kt.

Wed through Thur...VFR. Chance MVFR in -SHRA for N terminals
Thursday. SE winds 5-10kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA conditions through Saturday.
Winds generally less than 10kt tonight. S winds tomorrow
generally 10-15kt. Seas generally 1-2ft into tomorrow with a
wave period of 7-9sec. Sea surface temperatures generally 40-43F
from the Downeast coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line
including Passamaquoddy Bay.

SHORT TERM: Slight potential for small craft winds on Tuesday
morning, mainly for the outer waters. Otherwise winds and seas
are expected to remain below SCA criteria through the period.
Seas will be mainly around 2 feet.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Sinko
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...TWD/Sinko/LF
Marine...TWD/Sinko/LF