Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 240808
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
408 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and dry conditions into early next week as high pressure
builds in and dominates our weather. Temperatures will run a
little below normal readings for late August.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure centered over central Canada will build
southward today and shift gradually eastward, while aloft the
region remains under a trough. A short wave moving through the
trough will be on the approach this afternoon. There is chance
for some isolated showers this afternoon to the northwest of the
Capital District otherwise it will mostly to partly sunny.
Temperatures will be a tad lower than yesterday mainly from the
upper 60s to upper 70s with cooler readings across the higher
terrain of the western Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and
southern Green Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough axis and short wave will swing overhead tonight,
however another short wave will drop southward out of Hudson
Bay and pass over region Saturday into Saturday night. While at
the surface, the high shifts eastward and is expected to be centered
over Quebec by Sunday early morning. This will keep a light northwest
to north flow of dry air into the region. Only an increase in
clouds is expected with the approach and passage of the short
wave. High temperatures will fall short of seasonable levels by
about 5 degrees for highs and about 10 degrees for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and comfortable weather is expected through the long term period
across the entire area.

An upper level trough located over the Northeast on Sunday will be
replaced by weak ridging aloft for Monday into Tuesday. The upper
level flow will start to become more flat by the middle of the
upcoming week.

At the surface, high pressure looks to be anchored over northern New
England through the period.  This should allow for a mostly to
partly sunny (clear) sky for most of the time.  With somewhat cool
temps aloft in place, daytime temperatures will be slightly below
normal, generally in the 70s for highs and mid 40s to mid 50s for at
night. Dewpoints will remain in the 40s to 50s for much of the time.

By the end of the period, attention will be on two storm system. The
first, which will be the remains of TC Harvey, look to be located
well southwest of the region, as the remnant low and moisture will be
cutoff from the main flow and stay across the Gulf Coast and Deep
South.  It is unknown if any of this moisture at all makes it
northeast towards our area.

Also, another storm system (possible a TC or subtropical storm) may
be developing off the eastern seaboard. Nearly all model and
ensemble guidance (with the exception of one lone GEFS member) keep
this storm well east of the region, as it travels north-northeast
along a frontal zone off the eastern seaboard in the western
Atlantic Ocean for Wednesday into Thursday. Although it will be
watched rather closely, it doesn`t look to be a concern for our
region.  The next chance of a rain may wind up being with a northern
stream frontal boundary for the latter part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all TAF sites. With an
upper level trough moving into the region, there is a patch of
some mid level clouds that are impacting KGFL/KALB/KPSF with
sct-bkn cigs of 8-10 kft. No precip is occurring, but these
clouds look to pass through the area over the next few hours.

Behind these clouds, it will clear out for the rest of the
overnight hours. With light winds in place, some radiational fog
cannot be ruled out for KGFL/KPSF due to a small T/TD spread for
the late night hours. A brief period of IFR vsby will be
possible for right around sunrise at KGFL/KPSF, otherwise it
should remain VFR. Have included a tempo to account for this
possibility. With a larger spread in the temp/dewpoints, KPOU/KALB
look to stay VFR with a nearly clear sky for the remainder of
the night.

During the day on Thursday, flying conditions will be VFR. With
the upper level trough overhead, sct-bkn cigs at 4-8 kft will be
in place through the day, especially for the northern terminals.
W-NW winds will be around 5-8 kts. Some of these clouds may
linger into Thursday night, but they should start to sct out
with the loss of daytime heating. Winds will become very light
or calm for Thursday night.

Outlook...

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Looking at fair and dry conditions into early next week as high
pressure builds in and dominates our weather. The exception will
be for some isolated showers northwest of the Capital District
this afternoon. Minimum relative humidity levels this afternoon
are forecast to be in the 40s east of the Hudson River Valley and
mainly in the 50s to the west. Minimums values Friday afternoon
are forecast to be in the 40s. Recovery tonight will be 90 to
near 100 percent.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next several days.
Fair and dry into early next week as high pressure builds in
and dominates.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KENX radar is expected to be down through at least Friday,
September 1st for the bull gear to be replaced.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY


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