Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 220509
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1109 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 06Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

Tonight - Thursday...MVFR/IFR/LIFR. Expecting some light
rain/drizzle tonight across much of the region which will continue
to bring down VSBYS but the CIGS will remain the main issue. The
CIGS could bounce a bit between IFR/LIFR tonight but overall just
plain ole poor flying conditions. Not expecting much change on
Thursday either with CIGS remaining low. May see some lifting of
the CIGS across the west by late afternoon but it may be short
lived before the lower stuff comes back in. Winds are expected to
be less on Thursday and slowly veer towards the northeast. High
confidence.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1018 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The cold front is now all the way off the Middle Texas Coast but
as discussed previously it is slowing its eastward movement and
will begin to stall late tonight. Looking a pure anafrontal light
rain/drizzle activity continuing through much of the night.
Isentropic lift along the 295K layer really gets going later
tonight and spreads inland which will help to push chance PoPs
farther westward. We did increase PoPs across the Coastal Bend and
nearshore Gulf waters given the proximity of the front and
increasing isentropic lift. Granted there is still plenty of
elevated instability left across much of the region thinking that
isolated thunder will be confined to the east, mainly over the
waters, as the next shortwave trough of low-pressure moves through
over the next few hours. Thereafter thunder chances look even more
isolated.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night)...

Cold front continues to move southeast at 10 to 15 mph toward the
coast, along a line from Magnolia Beach to Sinton to Alice to
Hebbronville. Scattered storms are developing just behind the
boundary. Some of these storms could become strong producing hail as
latest SPC mesoanalysis indicated MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg.

Will continue to use a blend of NAM/ARW/SREF for the movement of
the cold front through the forecast period. The GFS model this
winter has been woeful with shallow arctic air masses. Went very
close to MET guidance for temperatures through the period. The
front will move move into the coastal waters this evening and
stall over the offshore waters from 40-50 nm offshore. The
boundary is expected to be nearly stationary through the day
Thursday and then slowly retreat back toward the coast Thursday
night.

Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms will be
possible along and behind the boundary this evening. Isentropic
lift will keep threat of convection going late tonight into
Thursday morning. There may be a lull in precip activity during
the afternoon Thursday as isentropic lift diminishes. But another
short wave trough will be moving northeast toward the region
Thursday night with isentropic lift strengthening especially over
the Brush Country. Will increase PoPs back to 50 percent for the
Brush Country with 40 percent chance for the coastl plains and
coastal waters.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Active weather continues through the long term period. We will start
out with the stalled boundary offshore Thursday/Thursday night
pushing back inland on Friday. Leaning heavily on NAM/SREF and
against the GFS that moves the boundary back in already on Thursday.
Should be a somewhat dry day on Friday with just a slight chance for
a shower along the front and highs warming back into the 70s.
Low level moisture surges back into the area though with dpts back
into the mid 60s by late in the day. Onshore flow continues Saturday
ahead of another cold front and with a continued southerly mid-level
flow should get quite warm that day...into the 80s for much of the
area. This all depends on frontal timing, with current expectations
of frontal passage in the evening or overnight.

The Sunday front again doesn`t look like it will be a clean passage
with upglide flow developing quickly on Sunday through the eastern
part of the forecast area. Western areas should be drier and could
see some sunshine on Sunday. Expect more of the same early next week
with rain chances continuing. High temperatures drop into the 60s
and low 70s behind the front Sunday and then gradually warm back
into the 70s early week. Another cold is possible by the latter half
of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    48  56  54  76  67  /  90  50  40  10  20
Victoria          44  53  51  76  66  /  70  50  40  10  20
Laredo            45  56  52  75  64  /  40  40  50  20  20
Alice             46  54  52  78  66  /  60  50  40  10  20
Rockport          49  56  55  75  66  /  90  40  40  10  20
Cotulla           43  53  48  72  62  /  40  50  50  20  20
Kingsville        48  55  54  79  67  /  70  50  40  10  20
Navy Corpus       49  57  56  74  66  /  90  40  40  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION



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