Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231033

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
533 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Issued at 300 AM CDT MON OCT 23 2017

A couple potent mid/upper troughs are in the vicinity of the
forecast area this morning. The first and easternmost of these
waves is departing the area after bringing us a couple inches of
rain on Saturday night. The second of these waves will carve its
way into the northwest flow aloft and will intensify a mid level
jet to around 80-100 kts as it dives southward into and through
the area. A surface cold front will push into the area later this
morning, bringing with it a tightening pressure gradient and
strong northwesterly winds. Expect these winds to pick up through
the day into the 20 to 30 mph range. Steep low level lapse rates
up to H85 or H8 will help bring down occasional 25 to 35 mph
wind gusts. May need to monitor trends through the day for a
potential Wind Advisory, but for now model guidance does not
indicate 30 mph sustained and 45 mph gusts today... although it
could be close.

Tuesday will bring another gusty day to the area, as the pressure
gradient on the west side of a potent surface low associated with
the aforementioned potent mid level wave remains tight. Another
day flirting with wind advisory criteria (39G45 mph) is on tap
for Tuesday. Even overnight Monday night into Tuesday should bring
unceasing gusty winds in the 20 to 30 mph. Early mixing on
Tuesday could bring some stout low level winds to the surface,
perhaps approaching 40 mph at times. As the day progresses on
Tuesday the low level winds just off the surface will decrease
just a bit, so despite better mixing through the day the gusts
will likely remain in the 25 to 35 mph range, perhaps with an
occasional gust approaching 40 mph. The steady northwest flow with
northern CONUS origin will cause temps on Tuesday to struggle to
get out of the middle 50s. Wednesday should see some mid level
ridging between the series of troughs expected to continue digging
into the central CONUS through late next week.

By late this week the mid/upper pattern will continue to remain
unsettled with another strong trough digging into the area, but
with the lack of any real moisture to work with there will not be
any precipitation with any of these early/middle week systems.
Each trough that digs into the central CONUS will reinforce the
cool air with more cool air through the late part of the week.
Models are still calling for well-below normal temperatures all
weekend, with Friday and Saturday struggling to make 50 degrees
across the area. Saturday morning lows will likely be the coldest
of the season so far, with lows in the 20s north of I-70 and lows
in the upper 20s to lower 30s across all other areas. Sunday
morning could also be quite chilly, with current forecast
indicating lower to middle 30s, but there could still be some
cooling to go, based on models showing reinforced cool air into
Sunday morning. At any rate, it does look like most of the area
will see its first freeze Saturday and/or Sunday mornings, with
perhaps a large portion of the area seeing its first hard freeze
(Temps < 28 deg). Wind chills on these days will likely also be
quite unpleasant with perhaps upper teens to lower 20s in some
places, considering the 5 to 10 mph winds concurrent with these
unseasonably cold temperatures. A lack of moisture through the
entire forecast period will keep conditions dry, despite the
active pattern aloft.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CDT MON OCT 23 2017

Strong NW wind gusts expected through the day, picking up around
15z as they switch from the south/southwest. Winds will generally
reside in the 20 to 30 kt range, but occasional gusts approaching
35+ kts will be possible. Overnight winds should generally
decrease, but with strong low level winds just off the surface
expect 20+ kt gusts to persist through the overnight hours. Low
level wind shear should not be a problem considering surface winds
remaining in the 10-20 kt range, but winds just off the surface
will likely be in the 40 to 50 kt range, so lighter winds at the
surface will result in increasing LLWS concerns overnight tonight.




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