Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 240938
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
338 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 338 AM CST WED JAN 24 2018

Very few weather impacts are expected over the next 7 days with
continued above normal temperatures through the period.

As of this morning, a shortwave trough was passing overhead, with a
band of stratus located from western Iowa into northeast Missouri.
Skies will be mostly sunny for the large majority of the area, minus
northeast MO where stratus won`t exit the area until later today.
Light westerly surface winds will gradually become southwesterly
this afternoon. Weak warm air advection will allow temperatures this
afternoon to reach the middle 40s to lower 50s, with slightly cooler
readings in the stratus zone. Lows tonight will be several degrees
warmer thanks in part to southerly winds and continued moisture
transport.

An upper level ridge shifts into the Central Plains on Thursday with
a lee trough evolving over the High Plains. Increasing southerly
winds/WAA will allow for temperatures to warm well into the 50s. An
elevated fire concern may exist during the afternoon hours with the
warm readings, limited moisture, dry fuels, and breezy winds gusting
25 to 30 mph at times. The upper pattern changes by Friday as a
trough moves into the central CONUS. Another warm day is expected
with similar highs in the 50s. An associated cold front will push
through the forecast area during the late afternoon and evening
hours on Friday, providing the only notable chance of precipitation
in the next week. Despite increased ascent, deepest moisture will
reside to the south and east of our area, limiting precipitation
potential and subsequent rainfall totals. Best chances for
measurable rain is expected over central MO, with the KC Metro
potentially just missing out.

Cooler weather can be expected behind the front on Saturday into
Monday before the upper ridging builds back into the region. That
said, forecast temperatures look to remain slightly above normal
during the cooldown, with afternoon readings returning back into the
50s by Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST TUE JAN 23 2018

VFR conditions will continue to prevail at the terminals through
the next 24 hours. A surface ridge moving through the region
Wednesday will keep the wind light and variable tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Cutter



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