Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 230535
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 06Z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the period. Cloud heights
hovering between 3k and 4kft late tonight will continue to slowly
lift overnight. An isolated shower is possible across the region,
but chances are too small to include at any taf site. Breezy winds
will continue, mainly at VCT and CRP through the night with
lighter winds farther inland. Improving conditions are expected
tomorrow with decreasing winds and clearing skies.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1020 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A few updates this evening to the forecast, mostly for cloud
cover. Had to increase the cloud cover with a vast area of
stratocu moving in from the west-southwest behind the cold front.
Still seeing some isentropic lift along the 300-305K layers
keeping the clouds in place. Frankly, we may still be too quick
in trying to clear them out early Sunday morning but like the old
adage goes, good things come to those who wait. So we`ve got that
going for us...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Cold front continues to push southward this afternoon, with a 10-15
degree drop in its wake. Winds are shifting to the north and
strengthening behind the front. Breezy to windy north winds are
expected overnight. Much cooler with lows in the 50s and lower RH
values expected overnight. Clouds and patchy light rain/SHRA`s
will hang around this evening due to weak isentropic upglide
behind the front. Clouds are expected to erode from NW to SE
toward Sunday morning. By late Sunday morning/afternoon, sunny
skies and pleasant temps are expect. Winds will also be
diminishing as the sfc high settles across the area. Clear skies
and light winds by Sun night will lead to even cooler mn temps
around 50 to mid 50s.

Marine (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

A cold front is expected to approach the bays and nearshore waters
by late afternoon into early evening then push across the offshore w
waters by around 9 PM. A strong offshore flow is expected to develop
in the wake of the cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
beginning at 7 PM. Winds across the bays are expected to decrease
to below advisory levels by Sunday morning and across the
remainder of the coastal waters by late Sunday afternoon/early
evening. Seas are expected to build to 7-8FT then subside by Sun
evening.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

Work week will start out with temperatures near normal as surface
high pressure ridge moves east into the Gulf of Mexico. A broad
upper trough over the Rockies Tuesday will move into the plains on
Wednesday. Surface low pressure area will remain over northwest
Texas on Tuesday with onshore flow increasing. Temperatures will
warm up to above normal levels Tuesday. A trough/dryline will move
into the Brush Country on Wednesday leading to the warmest day of
the week with readings as high as 102 at LRD and lower 90s for the
inland Coastal Bend. A second system will be diving southeast
through the Rockies for Thursday. This will lead to an increase in
the onshore flow in response to deepening low pressure area over the
high plains. Expect SCA conditions over the Gulf waters Tuesday
night and again Thursday night into Friday. Models are not quite in
agreement on  the strength of the upper trough over the southern
Rockies into the southern high plains on Saturday. Enough moisture
return and strengthening low level flow could lead to streamer type
convection over the northeast counties on Saturday. With more
moisture, high temperatures will not be quite as high Friday into
Saturday as mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  54  82  67  88  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          75  51  81  62  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
Laredo            80  55  88  67  97  /  10   0   0   0   0
Alice             79  51  86  64  93  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          77  58  80  70  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           80  52  87  64  95  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        79  53  85  66  91  /  10   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       76  60  80  71  84  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O`Connor.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION


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