Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 190522
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1122 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 06Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail through the period.  Gusty northerly winds will
persist overnight in wake of a cold front.  Winds will gradually
veer to the northeast through the day Sunday, maintaining a moderate
breezy flow.  By the late afternoon/evening Sunday winds will drop
to a light flow while continuing to veer.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 551 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation below for 00Z TAF update.

AVIATION...

A cold front is currently pushing through the region. This will
bring windy conditions this evening through tonight, with gusts
around 25 to 30 kts. Winds will gradually relax early Sunday
morning, but maintain a moderate flow through the period as the
flow shifts from the north to a more north northeast flow. VFR
will predominate through the period.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

The cold front is on its way south expected to push offshore around
6 PM this evening, with far western extension already moving through
Cotulla and approaching Victoria as of writing. Winds have veered
out of the SW ahead of the front due to a prefrontal trough.
Farther south along the coast, winds continue to remain variable
and light, especially now that the warm temperatures across the
southern Coastal Bend have aided in the weak sea breeze
development along the coast with winds starting to back out of the
south-southeast. But winds will become northerly with the frontal
passage. As the front moves down, initial winds will increase
with gusts of 25 to 35 mph, but should relax slightly heading into
the evening. Over the waters, however, winds are expected to
remain strong with frequent gale force gusts. Not expecting rain
to develop over land due to the persistent SW warm and dry flow
coming off the Sierra Madre ahead of the front. However, isolated
showers will be possible once the front makes it over the gulf
waters. Activity will be brief as the front will quickly push
farther south across the waters this evening.

Temperatures tonight are expected to cool into the mid to upper 40s
as cooler and drier air moves in. For Sunday, continued CAA will
lead to temperatures struggling to break out of the 60s, with the
exception of a few locations toward the southern Coastal Bend that
may reach around 70 degrees. Thin cirrus will begin to move in
from the west through the day on Sunday.

Chillier conditions are then expected for Sunday night as winds by
this time will have relaxed further. A few locations for Sunday
night may reach into the upper 30s especially in low lying locations
from Cotulla to Victoria.

MARINE (Tonight)...

Strong northerly winds will develop in wake of the cold front this
evening. Gale Warnings are in effect for the gulf waters as very
strong winds aloft are expected to mix down to the surface over the
warmer waters. For the bays, Small Craft Advisories are in effect.
Winds will be strong out of the north, but gusts are not expected to
frequently reach gale force wind speeds.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

There will be a brief period of onshore flow for Monday as the
surface high pressure ridge moves to the east. Adequate moisture
over the coastal waters along with a very weak coastal trough could
generate isolated showers in this area Monday night into Tuesday. A
short wave trough will be diving southeast through Texas Tuesday
morning and reach the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday evening.
Isolated to scattered showers will be possible mainly over the
offshore waters Tuesday night as this short wave trough moves
through. Another surge of high pressure will move through the area
Tuesday night with offshore flow increasing to SCA levels Wednesday.
It will be cool and dry for Thanksgiving. Temperatures will warm
back to near normal levels by Saturday as upper level high pressure
ridge over Mexico builds into South Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    49  68  48  72  57  /  10   0   0  10  10
Victoria          45  66  42  70  54  /   0   0   0  10  10
Laredo            51  65  48  71  54  /   0   0   0  10  10
Alice             48  68  46  73  54  /   0   0   0  10  10
Rockport          51  66  50  70  61  /  10   0   0  10  10
Cotulla           46  66  44  70  50  /   0   0   0  10  10
Kingsville        50  69  47  73  55  /  10   0  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       56  67  55  71  63  /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Sunday For the following zones:
     Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...
     Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20
     to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
     Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor.

&&

$$

LB/84...AVIATION



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