Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 242157 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
457 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...Update for Marine Discussion.

&&

.MARINE...Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for Bays/Waters from
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas and for adjacent nearshore waters.
Wind speeds have been around 20 knots for a couple of hours and
are likely to intensify some late this afternoon and early evening
in response to strong east to west thermal gradient that has
developed today from the coast to inland areas. Winds should be
strongest along/offshore of Padre/Mustang Islands where gusts to
near 30 kts may occur at times this evening.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

Moisture will begin its return into the region tonight. Have
dewpoints into the mid and upper 70s by late tonight and expect
pwats back near 2 inches by sunrise Tuesday. Should see a few
streamer showers by morning, with very light rain, and could see
some seabreeze showers/storms in the afternoon. Have kept just
isolated wording with moisture levels only a bit above normal for
this time of year and remaining very shallow. Will expect more
cloud cover during the day, and temperature a few degrees lower
than today as well. Despite slightly cooler temperatures, heat
index values will increase on Tuesday. May have to consider heat
advisory for some zones, but borderline condition at this point,
so will not pull the trigger on it yet. Southerly flow this
afternoon will shift a bit more southeasterly as surface ridge
axis shifts northward temporarily.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

The main weather story in the extended is the heat and humidity
across the area. To begin the period, an upper level ridge will be
centered over the Southern Plains. Despite the proximity of the
upper ridge, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
both Wednesday and Thursday as PWs remain at or about 2 inches. Rain
chances were capped at 20 percent for now and primarily over eastern
sections of the CWA. Most locations will likely remain dry though.
Heading into the weekend, the upper ridge axis will shift back to
the Four Corners Region into the Rockies as trough becomes
established across the eastern CONUS. This will allow a weak
boundary/backdoor front to slide southward across the state. The
weak front will likely not make it this far south so the hot and
humid conditions will continue. Some convection will be possible in
association with the boundary, but confidence is not high that
storms will make it this far south. For that reason, rain chances
were omitted from the forecast during the weekend. Temperatures will
easily top 100 degrees over the Rio Grande and Brush Country with
upper 90s along the Coastal Plains into the Victoria Crossroads. The
heat index will be a daily issue, and heat advisories may be needed
for a large part of the area, especially Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  97  78  97  78  /  10  20  10  20  10
Victoria          76  97  76  98  77  /  10  20  10  20  10
Laredo            79 102  79 104  78  /  10  10   0  10  10
Alice             77  99  77 101  76  /  10  20  10  20  10
Rockport          82  95  82  94  82  /  10  20  10  20  10
Cotulla           77 102  76 104  77  /  10  10   0  10  10
Kingsville        78  98  78  98  77  /  10  20  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       83  95  83  95  82  /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 9 PM CDT this evening For
     the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to
     Port Aransas.

     Small Craft Advisory for winds until 1 AM CDT Tuesday For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM


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