Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 280544 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1244 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 06z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings have developed at ALI/CRP/VCT this evening and will
move into LRD within a few hours. Some IFR ceilings and MVFR vsbys
may be possible at times as well. These conditions should persist
into the morning hours before improving back to VFR levels mid to
late morning. Southerly to southeasterly winds will gust between
20 and 25 knots again during the afternoon and then subside around
00z/01z. As with the last several evening, MVFR stratus will build
back in after 00z at ALI/CRP/VCT. Chances for showers and storms
will then improve towards the tail end of the forecast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 937 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...Convection over the higher terrain in northeast
Mexico has diminished as it approached the Rio Grande this evening
where an axis of decreasing low level moisture and increasing
convective inhibition remains in place. Increased sky cover for
tonight as convective debris clouds cover the region at this time
and then the low stratus over the coastal areas is expected to
move inland overnight. No other changes were made to the
forecast.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 642 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection over Coahuila continues to
advance to the east-northeast at this time. Models depict an 85H
theta-e ridge axis along the Rio Grande into the far western Brush
Country through the evening hours with activity possibly being
sustained as it approaches the border. But will have to overcome
increasing convective inhibition in place over South Texas. Will
monitor progress of storms over the next couple of hours. May
have to include slight chance PoPs for Webb and La Salle Counties.

See Aviation section for 00Z TAFs.

AVIATION...Cirrus shield was in place over the coastal plains
with cirrus increasing from the west from convective activity over
Mexico. VFR conditions will continue early this evening but low
stratus/MVFR ceilings should develop in 02-03Z period this evening
over the coastal plains and spread inland. MVFR ceilings will be
possible at LRD by 08Z. IFR ceilings/MVFR vsbys in fog will be
possible over the coastal areas in hours before daybreak. Ceilings
will be lifting through 1500-2500 feet range by mid morning with
clouds scattering out from south to north between 16-18Z. Gusty
south-southeast winds expected for coastal areas Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  84  72  85  74  /  50  70  50  50  30
Victoria          73  83  70  85  72  /  60  70  40  50  30
Laredo            75  84  71  88  72  /  60  70  50  50  30
Alice             74  85  71  87  72  /  60  70  50  50  30
Rockport          76  84  73  83  76  /  50  70  50  50  30
Cotulla           72  85  70  88  71  /  60  60  30  50  30
Kingsville        75  86  72  87  73  /  50  70  50  50  30
Navy Corpus       76  83  75  82  77  /  40  70  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



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