833
FXUS61 KBGM 070608
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
208 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A more active weather pattern returns early this week as a hot
and humid airmass remains over the region. There will be a
chance for showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday with
heavy downpours that could produce localized flash flooding.
Drier weather arrives on Wednesday as high pressure builds back
into the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
240 PM Update

Warm and muggy conditions are expected overnight with lows
dipping only to the mid-60s to lower 70s. Tomorrow should
start off dry, but clouds increase and eventually showers and
thunderstorms become likely by the afternoon and evening hours
as a cold front drops down from Canada.

Warm, tropical moisture will be pushing north into the area and
PWATs will likely exceed 2 inches by tomorrow afternoon.
Forecast soundings are showing long skinny CAPE profiles with
2000 J/kg and a warm cloud depth approaching 15K feet. Efficient
warm rain processes are looking likely in any showers and
storms tomorrow and rainfall rates may exceed 2"/hour. Also,
Corfidi vectors around 10-15 knots indicate that some back
building/training thunderstorms will be possible. These storms
can produce locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding.
At this time, the most favorable area for thunderstorms with
torrential downpours will be across the northwestern half of our
CWA...in Finger Lakes Region and into Syracuse as the cold
front slowly sags southeastward tomorrow afternoon.

Also, the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal could enhance the
rain and t`storm potential as that slow moving front sinks SE
across the area late in the day. WPC has our area in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall. At this time, confidence is not
high enough in anyone location to warrant a flood watch, but this
will certainly be something to watch closely. SPC also has a
marginal risk for isolated severe storms with damaging winds,
across the NW half of the CWA Monday afternoon & evening.
Soundings show 1500 to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE, 25 kts of 0-6km
shear and over 800 J/kg of DCAPE...so we will need to watch for
any better organized storms that may produce strong, gusty to
isolated damaging winds as well.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into tomorrow
night, but any severe thunderstorm potential will wane after
sunset.

Finally, temperatures tomorrow could top out in the 90s in some
urban areas. Depending on the timing of the showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon, heat index values could exceed
95F in urban areas. However, decided to hold off on another heat
advisory for now, due to the uncertainty of timing for those
showers and storms tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Forecast...

The short term will remain active with a broad trough set up
over the Great Lakes region with SW flow aloft. Tuesday,
precipitable water values remain over 1.5 with ensemble means of
1.75 to 2.0 inches which is close to 3 standard deviations
above climatology. Models indicate that there will be a stalled
frontal boundary in the region but its placement is still
uncertain. Storms will mostly be concentrated along that front
through most of the day with a concern for localized flash
flooding with high rainfall rates. Most models have trended
towards the front making it through most of the region and
stalling more in NEPA into Southern New England so that is the
main area of concern.

The front looks to move south of the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday with surface high pressure building in. While
Wednesday starts off dry, a warm front tries to lift north with
increasing chances if rain showers and thunderstorms moving in
from the south through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
250 PM Forecast...

The long term remains active with SW flow continuing. Thursday
has a more potent shortwave moving through with ensemble mean
shear still around 20 to 25 knots with CAPE >500 J/kg though
deterministic models are more aggressive with shear with the 500
mb jet passing overhead. Headed into the weekend, the broad
long wave trough remains over the central US keeping the
Northeast under SW flow and frequent short wave trough passage.
Chances of precipitation remain high each afternoon Friday
through Sunday with plenty of moisture and instability for
through passages to take advantage of.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

205 AM Update

VFR at NY TAF sites through the morning and early afternoon
hours. Then, indications are that scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will form near KSYR around 19Z then gradually
move southeast to other sites between 20-24Z...perhaps
lingering until 08/02z at BGM and AVP. The window for each site
looks to be a couple hours or so. During this time heavy rain
and thunderstorms will be possible, with IFR or lower
restrictions and gusty, erratic winds also possible. Included
this potential in PROB30 groups at all taf sites. Again, timing
remains a little uncertain, so will attempt to hone in on timing
better as we get mode model data this morning.

For KAVP, a deck of MVFR clouds is still likely to move in from
the southeast PA and NJ early this morning, lingering until
around 14z this morning, before scattering out. The timing of
thunderstorms is quite uncertain at AVP. It`s possible a few
storms could develop nearby by 20-21z this afternoon...with the
other main line of showers and storms dropping south into the
area later, more like around 00-03z this evening.

Surface winds will be south-southwest 6-15 kts today, becoming
light and variable after sunset. Patchy fog and areas of lower
level stratus may also form tonight, mainly after 03z and into
the rest of the overnight and early Tuesday period.

Outlook...

Late Tonight: Patchy fog and widespread MVFR stratus clouds
expected. There is a chance for IFR CIGs as well.


Tuesday...MVFR CIGs through the morning gradually lift and
scatter to mainly VFR in the afternoon. Scattered showers and
t`storm redevelop from BGM/ELM south to AVP.

Tuesday night Through Wednesday night...Morning MVFR stratus
clouds possible, especially ELM, BGM and AVP. Mainly VFR in the
afternoon and evening.

Thursday and Friday...Restrictions possible with some showers
and thunderstorms around.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NYZ015>018-023>025-036-037-055-056.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG/JTC
AVIATION...MJM/MWG