000
FXUS64 KEPZ 260729
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
129 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Breezy winds again on Friday, increasing to windy Saturday
afternoon. Patchy blowing dust may reduce visibility in a few
locations. Winds finally subside next week with warmer
temperatures returning mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Yesterday`s wind maker ejecting into the central Plains tonight.
Subsequent polar jet streak is currently off the Pacific coast
with an upper low developing over the Great Basin. Jet streak flow
remains quite far south for late April, thus continued breezy to
windy conditions locally. Today looks to be a lull in the winds
as the El Paso region sits in between these dual low pressure
systems. Winds will pick up again this afternoon out of the
southwest at 15 to 25 mph. Patchy blowing dust may occur again,
though not nearly as widespread and dense as yesterday. Today also
looks a bit cooler, with lowland highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s.

Windy conditions return on Saturday as the polar jet streak moves
overhead and surface lee cyclogenesis over SE CO/NE NM induces a
surface trough across NM and west TX again. This round looks to be
a bit weaker in recent runs, suggesting a more vertical alignment
of the system by Saturday afternoon and no further deepening of
the low aloft. Will hold off on any wind headlines this package as
blended solutions converge on a consensus. For now, expect west
winds with sustained speeds of 20 to 30 mph Saturday afternoon,
with peak gusts generally 40 mph across much of the lowland zones
mid-afternoon. BLowing dust will once again be a consideration.

No major weather concerns early next week as the polar jet shifts
northward and more zonal flow prevails. Continued dry conditions
with a warming trend allowing highs to reach 90 degrees in El Paso
again by next Tuesday. Models suggest the approach of the dryline
from the east again late next week, possibly reaching the Rio
Grande corridor next Friday/Saturday. This would suggest at least
a small chance for thunderstorms locally. Will need to monitor
ensemble trends for this in the coming days and fine tune PoPs
going into early May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Our low end gusty winds are continuing to slow down. We may see
the guts finally drop off in the next few hours, but it would not
surprise me if we occasionally see some low end gusts through the
reset of the night. If the gusts do drop off, they will come back
by late morning or early afternoon on Friday. But the winds
tomorrow will not be as strong as we saw today. Our ceilings will
stay unlimited tonight and through the day on Friday. VFR
conditions are expected to continue through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Critical fire danger continuing through Saturday as winds remain
breezy each afternoon and dry air remains in place. Near-critical
conditions on Friday with Min RH 10-15% and southwest winds 15 to
25 mph. Conditions may reach Red Flag status for a few hours
Friday afternoon, but no headlines at this time given the borderline
conditions. Stronger winds again on Saturday have prompted Red
Flags for portions of south-central New Mexico and far west Texas
where RH remains low. Peak gusts of 40 mph Saturday afternoon with
areas of blowing dust.

Winds diminish Sunday into early next week as dry weather
continues and temperatures warm day-to-day. No additional Red Flag
headlines anticipated at this time next week. Smoke ventilation
will be Excellent through next week with transport to the
northeast each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  82  56  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            76  50  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               81  50  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               76  47  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               53  33  46  30 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    76  48  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              68  40  58  38 /   0  10  10   0
Deming                   78  46  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                76  45  67  40 /   0  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro       79  54  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                80  49  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             83  50  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               72  49  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   81  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             78  49  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           78  53  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            76  46  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    78  48  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 78  50  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                76  48  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  66  40  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                64  39  57  35 /   0   0  10   0
Timberon                 63  35  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  68  38  59  37 /   0   0  10   0
Hillsboro                73  43  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                76  44  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             68  38  58  34 /   0  10  10   0
Hurley                   72  39  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    74  43  66  39 /   0  10  10   0
Mule Creek               69  40  60  39 /   0  20  10   0
Faywood                  71  41  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   77  45  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  76  46  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           76  46  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               71  43  64  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ112.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt