Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 241117
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
517 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Strong winds and blowing dust are likely on Thursday as a low
pressure system passes by. The strongest winds will occur during
the afternoon across portions of south central New Mexico. Breezy
to windy conditions will continue through Saturday before quiet
weather returns Sunday into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Pacific low pressure system currently off the coast of southern
California will drive our spring-like weather pattern over the
next few days. Quiet and persistent conditions again today with
lowland highs in the upper 80s and southwest winds 10 to 15 mph
during the afternoon. Only difference from yesterday will be the
increase in high cloud coverage as a band of subtropical moisture
moves in from baja. Skies will be mostly overcast this afternoon,
which may stagnate temperatures a degree or two.
Upper trough progresses over the southern Rockies on Thursday,
leading to windy conditions area wide. 500 mb jet streak around 80
knots will cross directly over El Paso mid-afternoon Thursday,
with deep boundary layer mixing to 600 mb. At the surface, lee
cyclogenesis producing a 987mb low in eastern Colorado will
extend a strong surface trough southward across New Mexico and far
west Texas. Trough axis passage is timed well with peak mixing,
especially right up the US-54 corridor from El Paso up to
Tucumcari.
Model guidance has increased winds slightly in the past 48 hours.
West-southwest winds with sustained speeds of 30 to 40 mph with
peak gusts around 50 mph will be most common across the New Mexico
and Texas lowlands. Mountain ridges and east slopes will see
slightly higher gusts. Thus, Wind Advisories have been issued for
much of the area excluding far western New Mexico (near the
Arizona state line where winds will likely be weaker). High Wind
Warnings are out for the Sacramento Mtns and San Andres east slope
zones, including Cloudcroft, Mayhill, and WSMR. These are the
locations most likely to see gusts exceed 60 mph, sometime midday
Thursday.
Blowing dust and extreme fire danger are also considerations for
Thursday afternoon. Very dry conditions will be conducive of high
fire danger and dust sources in northern Chihuahua are likely to
respond by the noon time hour. Reductions in visibility will be
possible all afternoon, especially along the International Border
and just east of White Sands.
Friday looks to be a lull in the winds, remaining breezy but
likely not needing any headlines. Secondary lobe within the
prevailing trough pattern across the Western US will reach us on
Saturday, leading to more windy conditions and possible blowing
dust during the daytime hours. Winds expected to finally settle
down Sunday into next week as the polar jet streak shifts
northward.
No major weather concerns early next week. Continued dry
conditions with a warming trend allowing highs to reach 90 degrees
in El Paso again by next Tuesday. Models suggest the approach of
the dryline again midweek, but right now any storm chances look to
be confined to our east.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
VMC through forecast period with dry conditions and increasing
southwest flow aloft. Light west flow this morning, picking up
slightly this afternoon 230-250 at 08-14 knots with peak gusts to
25 knots across southwest NM. Band of high moisture moving into
the region SCT-BKN170 throughout the day, clearing early Thursday
morning. Strong winds expected Thursday afternoon along with
blowing dust impacts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Elevated conditions today with warm temperatures and dry air area
wide. Min RH 8-15%. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph leading to Very
Good smoke ventilation this afternoon.
Critical to extreme fire weather conditions expected on Thursday,
perhaps the most severe of this season so far. Similar low
humidity conditions will combine with much stronger west-southwest
winds of 30 to 40 mph across much of southern New Mexico and far
west Texas. ERCs showing dry and primed fuel conditions across the
lowlands, with fuel moisture closer to normal over the high
terrain. Red Flag conditions beginning around the noon time hour
and continuing to sunset on Thursday, with rapid fire behavior
possible in regions of high grassland, brush, or forest coverage.
Critical fire conditions are expected to linger into Friday and
Saturday afternoons, with subsequent Red Flags being issued for
portions of south-central New Mexico and far west Texas in the
coming forecast packages. Thursday certainly looks to be the most
severe, with Friday/Saturday being more borderline with winds
reaching critical thresholds. Winds subside Sunday into next week,
with continued dry weather. No precipitation expected the rest of
the month.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 89 65 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 84 56 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 88 59 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 85 58 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 63 45 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 84 55 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 76 49 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 86 55 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 84 52 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 86 64 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 89 53 87 48 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 90 56 90 50 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 80 58 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 89 60 87 51 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 85 60 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 86 63 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 84 55 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 86 56 82 45 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 86 60 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 84 56 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 76 50 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 74 50 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 72 46 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 76 48 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 82 53 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 84 53 78 42 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 76 45 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 79 46 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 81 50 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 77 48 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 79 50 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 84 53 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 84 55 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 84 53 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 77 50 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ055-056.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ418>424.
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ110>113.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ403-406>411-
414-417-426-428-429.
High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ415-416-
427.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt