Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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990 FXUS64 KEPZ 112017 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 217 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Dry conditions return this evening under breezy west winds. Fire danger will be the primary weather concern again this week. Seasonal temperatures with lighter winds midweek, along with slight chances of showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain in central New Mexico. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Moisture boundary sits across eastern Otero/Hudspeth Counties this afternoon, with convective activity occurring along the fringes of our CWA. Upper low over the Central Rockies reinforcing southwesterly flow will push this moisture off to the east and out of the local forecast area this evening, with a very weak return flow overnight. We`ll see a few gusts to 30-35 mph this evening, subsiding overnight. We`re back to the prevailing pattern of dry, west flow on Sunday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, right near normal for mid-May with lowland highs in the mid 80s. The main weather concern going forward will be fire danger, but not expecting any headlines as winds decrease under a weak ridge aloft. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week right now, with a high of 93 at El Paso. Weak Pacific low will approach the region midweek, with current ensemble trajectories showing confidence in a track along the International Border. Marginal moisture return from the north may occur with this, allowing for some low-end thunderstorm and rain shower chances over Central New Mexico and the National Forests. Precipitation chances remain quite low for the El Paso metro through late May. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Southeast surface flow along the Rio Grande valley this morning is in the process of shifting back to a dry, southwest flow this afternoon. Current winds of 150-180 shifting to 220-250 by 20Z, with gusts up to 30 knots across southwest New Mexico mid- afternoon. Skies remaining SKC at KELP with convective activity to the east this evening. Winds subside overnight, generally 280-310 at 08-12 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 West flow 15 to 25 mph on Sunday combined with min RH 6-12%, leading to Elevated fire danger. No fire headlines expected at this time as winds remain just below critical thresholds. Excellent smoke ventilation beginning after 12PM, with transport due east. Lighter afternoon winds Monday and Tuesday as temperatures warm under high pressure aloft. Ventilation remains Very Good due to high mixing heights. Slight chance of thunder over the New Mexico forests on Thursday, which poses a threat of dry lightning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 60 86 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 80 55 83 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 53 85 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 50 82 52 84 / 10 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 38 58 39 61 / 10 0 0 20 Truth or Consequences 51 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 44 74 49 78 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 48 83 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 48 81 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 57 83 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 51 85 50 87 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 53 87 54 90 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 53 77 54 81 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 55 86 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 50 82 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 58 83 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 48 83 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 47 85 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 53 83 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 81 53 84 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 42 70 43 72 / 10 0 0 10 Mescalero 40 69 42 72 / 10 0 0 20 Timberon 41 68 42 71 / 10 0 0 10 Winston 41 74 46 76 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 46 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 45 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 39 75 43 78 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 42 77 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 45 81 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 77 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 48 81 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 48 81 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 81 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 76 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt