Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
517 FXUS64 KEPZ 120902 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 302 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Quiet weather conditions are expected through Tuesday before a storm system across the Southwest brings showers and thunderstorms to the mountains on Wednesday and Thursday. The winds will be breezy to windy today then light to breezy the rest of the period. The temperatures will be near the normal except on Tuesday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Currently, the skies are mostly clear with the winds at the surface light to breezy and the temperatures on the mild side. For today, we will be at the base of a trough of low pressure that will be centered to our north and northeast. Dry air intrusion is expected, which will bring quiet weather to our area. As this trough moves on by, the winds will increase at surface. There will be some mixing from aloft down to the surface during the day that will aide in breezy to windy conditions. The skies will be sunny in the morning then become partly cloudy especially across the northern portions of our CWA. With strong winds and mostly sunny skies, high temperatures this afternoon will be below the normal for this time of the year. By tonight, the atmosphere will decouple, which will allow the winds to relax a bit. The skies will become generally clear especially after midnight. Due to this, the low temperatures on Monday morning will be at and below the normal for certain lowland areas and vice versa in the mountains. For the rest of the period, mostly quiet weather is expected except for the middle of the week in the mountains. Until then, mainly quiet. However, some models like the GFS is hinting on the possibility of some weakness in the ridge on Monday building behind the trough of low pressure moving into the Plains. As of now, there is a mentioned of just a slight chance for showers mainly across the Otero Mountains. By the middle of the week, a another low pressure trough, this time located further south across the far Southwest will bring showers and thunderstorms mainly to the mountains as it gradually through move over our area. At first, it will slowly move as it will be closed-off. However, it will open up into a wave on Thursday and quickly exit our region overnight Thursday into Friday morning. There are some differences in the long range models. The GFS suggests the trough moves out by Friday, but still an embedded shortwave will bring some precipitation across parts of the CWA while the ECMWF suggests a secondary dry closed off located further south across the Baja California and northwestern Mexico overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Due to this uncertainty with the models, the chance for precipitation was left out beyond Thursday afternoon. The winds will be light to breezy and the temperatures near the normal expect on Tuesday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Along east slopes of the Sacramento Mtns...SCT-BKN020 until around 16Z. Surface winds west/northwest 7-10 knots. After 18Z winds becoming west 13-17G27 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 For today, the dry air will be in place. The winds will be breezy to windy and temperatures at and below the normal. Tonight recovery will be fair to good. For Monday, dry air will continue to be in place; however, there will be a slight uptick in moisture. The 20ft winds will be light and temperatures near the normal. Monday overnight recovery will be slightly better than tonight recover, but still fair to good. For the rest of the period, expected quiet conditions on Tuesday, but somewhat active on Wednesday and Thursday mainly in the mountains. The winds will be light to breezy and temperatures continuing to be near the normal. With that being said,fire weather conditions will be elevated to near critical today and on Wednesday and mainly elevated the rest of period. The min RHs today will be below 15% in the lowlands, and between 16 and 22% in the mountains. The min RHs on Monday will continue to be below 15% in the lowlands, but will increase 2 to 3% in the mountains. The ventilation rates will be excellent today then very good to excellent on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 87 61 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 80 55 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 85 54 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 82 51 85 54 / 0 0 10 0 Cloudcroft 58 39 62 42 / 0 0 10 0 Truth or Consequences 82 54 84 57 / 0 0 10 10 Silver City 74 49 78 51 / 0 0 10 0 Deming 83 51 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 81 51 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 83 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 84 51 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 87 53 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 77 54 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 86 56 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 82 52 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 83 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 82 49 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 84 50 87 52 / 0 10 0 0 Columbus 83 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 81 53 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 70 43 73 45 / 0 0 10 0 Mescalero 69 42 73 44 / 0 0 10 0 Timberon 67 42 72 44 / 0 0 10 0 Winston 74 46 77 49 / 0 0 10 0 Hillsboro 80 51 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 81 48 84 50 / 0 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 74 44 78 47 / 0 0 10 0 Hurley 77 47 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 81 49 85 52 / 0 0 10 0 Mule Creek 77 49 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 76 49 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 82 50 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 82 52 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 81 50 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 76 50 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira