Text Products for FWS Issued by MPX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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FNUS73 KMPX 222002
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Numo Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 CDT on April 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Numo Rx fire, relative humidity values in the 30-40
percent range at ignition will fall into the low to mid 20s by
early evening. Winds will sustain generally out of the west,
between 10-15 mph. Occasional gusts up to 25 mph possible.
Elevated fire weather concerns continue this evening given the low
relative humidity and breezy winds.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........63 at ignition...Max 68.
RH..................38 percent at ignition...Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 10 to 18
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /98200 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /183100 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7600 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 21 to 28 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM
Sky cover.......PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  66  68  67  66  62  57  54  51  50  48  48
RH..............38  33  28  26  24  26  33  36  41  42  46  46
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..10  15  18  21  18  13  12  12  13  13  12  13
20 FT wind gust.22  23  24  24  24  20  18  18  18  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 6.9 7.6 8.5 3.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.21  25  28  31  23  18  15  16  15  16  17  17
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........Min 44.
RH..................Max 71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (230100 knot-ft) decreasing to
                    excellent (66200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 23 to 31 mph decreasing to 15 to 18 mph
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent) then becoming partly sunny
                    (60-70 percent).
Temperature.........Max 57.
RH..................Min 47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 14 to 23 mph increasing to 21
                    to 23 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (108700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 17 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 33
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Louise Spiczka
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411786.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL louise.spiczka@state.mn.us
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
