228
FXUS64 KOHX 121145
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
645 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Dry conditions will continue through early overnight hours
tonight due to continued building of ridging influences surface
and aloft. Afternoon high temperatures today will be around or
slightly warmer than seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to
lower 80s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. Look for increasing
cloudiness from southwest to northeast as tonight progresses ahead
of next weather system to influences mid state`s weather with
some isolated to scattered light showers moving into southwestern
and western portions of our area late tonight. Lows tonight will
be around seasonal normal values in mid to upper 50s. Upper level
flow will become increasingly southwesterly orientated as Monday
progresses supportive of embedded multiple shortwave passages.
Southerly low level atmospheric flow will become increasingly
established also. Isolated to scattered showers should spread across
all of our area as morning hours progress on Monday with scattered
to numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
prevailing as Monday afternoon hours progress. Not expecting any
organized strong to severe storm potential as of this time. With
expected cloud coverage and rainfall, highs on Monday will drop down
into lower 70s, upper 60s to around 70 for locations just west of
and across Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Weather pattern will continue to be conducive to a continuance of
shower and thunderstorm chances through Wednesday afternoon as
progressive southwesterly upper level flow continues and a
vertically stacked surface/upper level low system moves across mid
state region Tuesday night into the day on Wednesday. Total rainfall
amounts from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon though look to
generally range only from around 0.75" up to 1.5." Some strong
thunderstorms could be possible as Tuesday progress. Mild lows in
low to mid 60s, upper 50s to around 60 Cumberland Plateau Region are
expected on Monday night. High temperatures will span the 70s on
Tuesday and Wednesday. A surface front will drop in from the
northwest and upper level ridging will build across our area as
Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon progress bringing
temporary dry conditions to our area with high temperatures
continuing to warm. A surface frontal passage looks to occur west
to east across mid state region as Friday progresses with upper
level flow once again taking on southwesterly flow characteristics
with possible multiple embedded shortwave passages and a potentially
more pronounced upper level trough approaching our area by late
Saturday afternoon from the west. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will return to mid state region Thursday night through Saturday
afternoon. Total rainfall amounts during this time period look to
range from greater than 0.50" up to around 1.25."  A warming trend
to seasonally warm temperatures will once again commences on
Saturday after highs on Friday are expected to be around seasonal
normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Surface and upper level ridging influences will support VFR
conditions thru 13/12Z. Isolated to scattered light showers
moving in from southwest around 13/09Z should remain west of mid
state terminals thru 13/12Z. Broken mid deck CKV should develop
though around 13/10Z. Light winds look to continue to prevail
thru 13/12Z also with continued variability noted generally
between SW thru SE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      81  58  73  65 /   0  10  50  80
Clarksville    79  56  72  64 /   0  10  60  80
Crossville     73  53  68  57 /   0   0  60  70
Columbia       80  59  72  63 /   0  20  70  70
Cookeville     75  56  70  61 /   0   0  40  70
Jamestown      74  54  71  58 /   0   0  20  70
Lawrenceburg   79  59  71  63 /   0  20  70  70
Murfreesboro   80  58  73  63 /   0  10  60  70
Waverly        81  60  73  63 /   0  20  70  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....JB Wright