895
FXUS64 KOHX 161656
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1156 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

KOHX radar is getting a break today with only some Cu and cirrus
around this morning. Breaks in the clouds are expected to become
more numerous this afternoon. Rain and storm chances will return
tonight as upper ridging moves east and is replaced with
southwesterly flow. Showers and storms will move in close to dawn.
There should be a break in the showers and storms in the morning
with a chance of more showers of storms in the afternoon and into
the overnight hours as a broad trough moves toward the area. As
far as severe potential on Friday, the potential looks low with
marginal shear and CAPE values less than 500 J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The trough will slow its eastward progress Friday night with the
troughing influences lingering on Saturday with more showers and a
storm or two. With the clouds and showers, highs on Saturday
should stay in the 70s across the the area. The trough axis will
move east Saturday night with northerly flow on Sunday. A couple
of sprinkles are possible on Sunday mainly along the plateau.
Upper ridging will build in from the west Sunday night with
southerly return flow on Monday and Tuesday. With that,
temperatures will warm well into the 80s on Monday and Tuesday,
and we have the potential of touching 90 for the first time this
year on Tuesday. A cold front will approach Tuesday night or
Wednesday with showers and storms. Behind the front, temperatures
will be slightly cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Low clouds have greatly expanded across the area overnight with
MVFR to LIFR cigs/vis currently seen at airports. Cigs/vis will
improve back to VFR by late morning through tonight. Rain is not
anticipated to spread over terminals until the very end and after
the current TAF period. Light west to northwest winds are expected
today with a switch to southeast at BNA/MQY/CKV this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  65  77  64 /  10  30  80  70
Clarksville    82  64  74  63 /  10  40  80  70
Crossville     77  58  72  60 /   0  10  80  70
Columbia       84  63  74  63 /   0  30  80  70
Cookeville     77  61  73  61 /   0  10  80  70
Jamestown      77  58  73  60 /   0  10  80  80
Lawrenceburg   82  64  74  63 /   0  20  80  60
Murfreesboro   83  63  76  63 /   0  20  80  70
Waverly        82  63  73  63 /  10  40  80  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Shamburger