National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KOHX 230530
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 811 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

With ridging in place, it`s gonna be a very quiet night. Winds are
very light to calm with a couple of high clouds streaming across
the area. May be a good night for some Lyrid meteor shower
viewing, though the (almost) full moon might make it difficult.
Tomorrow, while still pretty quiet until after sunset, things will
change with a front headed this way. Still looks like some light
showers moving into the area late tomorrow evening, but it`s going
to be breezy all day as the pressure gradient tightens across the
area. Gusts of 20-30 mph will be common, especially during the
afternoon. Oh, and when I say light rain, QPFs are a tenth or
less. Have a great night!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1009 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A surface ridge will slide across Middle Tennessee today, setting
us up for warmer weather beginning tomorrow. The atmosphere across
the region is very dry. The morning Precipitable Water value at
OHX was 0.29", which is below the 10th percentile for this date
and only 22% of the daily mean. Look for the surface pressure
gradient to increase tomorrow once the aforementioned ridge pulls
farther east. Combined with continued low RH values, this will put
Middle Tennessee in a marginal fire weather danger.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1009 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A weak surface boundary will sweep across the area tomorrow night,
bringing low rain chances mainly to areas north of I-40.
Additional low rain chances will come our way with the approach of
a warm front from the southwest, but this is not going to be a
substantial rain-producer. Better rain chances will happen this
weekend when a cold front pushes through Middle Tennessee, but QPF
totals throughout the next 7 days are below 1/4" across the
greater portion of the mid state, and below 1/2" for all but the
northwest corner of the forecast area. Meanwhile, daytime
temperatures will reach the 80s in many areas by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours. Primary
aviation concern will be some gusty winds that develop Tuesday
morning, persisting throughout the day across Middle Tennessee and
impacting all TAF sites. For Tuesday evening, a cold front will
approach the region and bring a chance for some precipitation.
However, for now, only mentioned precip at KCKV as most of the
precip should hold off until after 06z. One other thing to
note...a low level jet ahead of the front may produce some LLWS at
KCSV and KSRB late tomorrow evening. Didn`t have the confidence to
put that in the TAF at this time, but something to watch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  56  75  50 /   0  30   0  10
Clarksville    73  54  72  46 /  10  30   0  10
Crossville     69  51  69  44 /   0  40  10   0
Columbia       73  55  75  48 /   0  10   0  10
Cookeville     70  53  70  46 /   0  40   0   0
Jamestown      70  51  69  43 /   0  50   0   0
Lawrenceburg   73  55  74  49 /   0  10   0  10
Murfreesboro   74  55  75  47 /   0  20   0  10
Waverly        73  55  74  49 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Husted