Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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612
FXUS61 KCAR 052002
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
402 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW REACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THEN RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. WE`RE ALREADY SEEING
MOISTURE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AS
EVIDENCED BY PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THE RAIN WON`T BE FAR
BEHIND AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
WITH LAST NIGHT`S RAIN, DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION, WITH AREAS NORTH OF A HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET LINE
SEEING JUST SOME SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY. COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE ANOTHER HALF INCH OR
SO, WITH FAR WASHINGTON COUNTY RECEIVING A LITTLE MORE. THE RAIN
WILL BE A QUICK SHOT GIVEN THE LOW`S RAPID FORWARD PROGRESSION AND
WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IT`LL BE A BIT
BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS WELL, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WOODS TO THE LOWER 40S
DOWNEAST.

PLEASANT WEATHER MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY; EXPECT
EVERYONE WILL SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO TO THE LOWER 60S IN MOST SPOTS, THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
DOWNEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONGEST; HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S THERE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE THE CUT-OFF LOW FINALLY GETTING ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE MAIN WEATHER PATTERN AND A DIGGING TROF MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START OFF CLEAR, BUT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD BACK NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THICKEN THRU THE DAY ON
SAT. AS THE CUT-OFF GETS ABSORBED BACK INTO THE UPR TROF AND ITS
MOISTURE STREAMS BACK NORTH AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT, MAY
HAVE SOME ISO TO SCT SHWRS LATE SAT AM THRU SAT NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE CWA DURING THE
AFTN AND EVE ON SUN. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT FELT CONFIDENT TO INTRODUCE LKLY TO LOW-
END DEF POPS. CURRENTLY GOING FOR QPF OF A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NRML SAT, BUT INCR CLOUDS AND AFTN PRECIP
WILL LIKELY TAMP DOWN TEMPS A BIT ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME PRECIP LKLY TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE N AND E BORDERS AT 00Z
MON START OF THE LONG TERM, BUT QUICKLY DIMINISHES. HWVR,
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS QUICKLY DEVELOP REGARDING THE SPEED OF
THE UPR TROF DEPARTING THE REGION, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHWRS TO LINGER UP NORTH. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN NEW ENG TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT, BUT ALSO
DISAGREE QUITE A BIT ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP, SO KEPT
POPS AT CHC FOR NOW. 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND
CMC SOLUTIONS, SO FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO HAVE A BIT
MORE CERTAINTY IF THAT TREND HOLDS. TEMPS ON MON LKLY TO BE A BIT
BLW NRML BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR OR A BIT
ABV NRML THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL SITES CURRENTLY UNDER PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AND
THIS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY, THOUGH THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VFR. THEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS
A PERIOD OF RAIN. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE THE STEADIEST RAIN AS
WELL AS THE LONGEST PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS (00Z-11Z). THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE JUST SOME SHOWERS AT
MOST, BUT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FT LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z AS SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. ALL SITES VFR BY 18Z.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR AT ALL SITES FRI NIGHT, EXCEPT PATCHY FOG
CAN`T BE RULED OUT, ESPEC KHUL SOUTH TO THE COAST AS WINDS MAY BE
A BIT LIGHTER THERE. HIGH CIGS SPREAD OVER THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUING VFR AT FIRST, THOUGH
ANY SHWRS LATER SAT INTO SUN AM COULD BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE STATE FROM W TO E BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND
06Z MON, WLD EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. CIGS
WILL INCREASE ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, BUT AS THE UPR TROF
REMAINS OVER HEAD, COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES MON, ESPEC
IF ANY SHWRS LINGER.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONVERTED OVER TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
FRIDAY MORNING TO EXTEND THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS WILL BE 5-9 FEET.


SHORT TERM: WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE
SHORT TERM, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA LEVELS FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT. SEAS LOOK TO SETTLE SOME SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, AND MAY
ALLOW THE ANTICIPATED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO BE DROPPED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...KREDENSOR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/KREDENSOR
MARINE...HASTINGS/KREDENSOR



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