Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
FXUS61 KCAR 300735
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
335 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017
High pressure will crest over the area this afternoon...then
move eat tonight. Low pressure approaching from the west will
lift a warm front across the region later Monday and Monday
night followed by an occluded front on Tuesday as the Low
tracks north across Quebec through Tuesday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some SC cld cvr is still being persistent across the N...but we
still believe that this cld cvr should be diminishing by sunrise
to allow msly sunny skies tdy ant least into the mid aftn hrs.
It will still be breezy this morn into the erly aftn hrs with
steep lapse rates allowing whats left of stronger NW winds alf
to mix to the sfc as wind gusts arnd 20 mph...after which...winds
will slowly diminish durg the mid to late aftn hrs then become
calm this eve with the sfc ridge axis crossing W to E ovr the
Rgn. Hi temps this aftn in the 50s will be a little below
seasonal norms and about 10 to 20 deg cooler than Sat aftn.
Alg with the passage of the sfc ridge, hi cldnss associated with
advcg low pres from the Midwest will begin to arrive from the W
late Sun aftn. Cldnss will then thicken this eve and into the
ovrngt hrs with rn movg into the region from Srn QB late tngt.
It may be cold enough for very high trrn abv 2000ft abv sea lvl
for rn to mix with sn by daybreak, but with the sfc to 2000ft
abv sea lvl layer being sig abv fzg, the vast majority of lower
trrn lctns should just experience all rn. Fcst rn PoPs ramp up
to categorical by daybreak Mon spcly across the N and Cntrl ptns
of the Rgn as winds begin to increase from the SE and ovrngt
lows reach 35 to 40 deg.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A moist warm front lifting north across the area will bring rain
across the region Monday morning. The steadiest rain will lift
across the north Monday afternoon while Downeast areas remain cloudy
with spotty showers and drizzle. A band of steadier rain may move
across the area Monday night as an occluded front pushes through.
Moist air ahead of the occlusion will likely result in some fog
Monday night. On Tuesday the occlusion will push east. A corridor of
moderately warm and humid air will be across our area as low
pressure lifts into Quebec. A weak cold front may produce some
showers and possibly isolated thunder Tuesday afternoon.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure both surface and aloft will be migrating through Quebec
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture circulating around the low
will bring clouds and a continued chance for spotty showers over the
region. Skies may then partially clear Wednesday night as the low
moves away through eastern Canada and high pressure begins to build
in. High pressure should then bring plenty of sunshine and dry and
tranquil weather on Thursday. Low pressure will quickly approach
late Thursday night into Friday bringing more rain across the area.
There may be a break in the rain early Saturday as an initial low
quickly moves away. A larger low approaching late Saturday into
Sunday will likely bring more rain. A large blocking high near
Greenland may hold upper level low pressure over the area well into
the following week keeping our weather unsettled for a while.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are xpctd across all TAF sites tdy and
this eve, with clgs and vsbys lowering to MVFR late tngt with
SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds and rain and drizzle
are expected Monday into Monday night. Conditions may improve to
MVFR on Tuesday and then be MVFR across the north and VFR
Downeast Tuesday night into Wednesday night. VFR conditions in
high pressure are expected on Thursday.
NEAR TERM: SCA conditions with the current SCA in effect til 12z
are yet to manifest ovr our waters, likely a result of stable
Sfc-100m abv sfc lapse rates preventing much in the way of
stronger winds alf from mixing to the sfc as gusts much abv 20kt.
Will hold on this SCA this update, but anticipate canx the adv
the next update unless buoy obs suggest otherwise. Otherwise,
no hdlns are anticipated for the rest of tdy and tngt, with
winds becoming lgt and wv hts gradually falling to arnd 2 ft.
SHORT TERM: A SCA may be needed late Monday night through
Tuesday for southwesterly winds gusting up to 30 kt. Gusts up
to 25 kt may continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as
southwesterly winds persist below low pressure tracking through
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for