Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 021927
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A 500 MB TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE
AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE THERE COULD EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MOSTLY SUNNY CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY, WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WE`LL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THE
FOURTH, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 IN MANY
LOCATIONS, THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE DAY, SO IT COULD START TO FEEL
A LITTLE MUGGY TOWARD EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER, FEEL ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, MEANING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY,
WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 ONCE AGAIN. NOTE THAT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WE`LL SEE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY;
SB CAPES ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH 900 J/KG, WITH THE LATEST GFS
INDICATING UP TO 1500 J/KG (LIKELY OVERDONE). AS SUCH, EXPECT
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT LACKING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT APPEARS SUMMER WILL FINALLY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MINOR DISTURBANCES MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS VCNTY KFVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS


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