Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 180000
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
800 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
AND BEGIN TO DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH LESSER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST EARLY THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AS WE GO INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S NORTH...TO THE LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR IS THAT MANY
AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHEST EAST YOU GO, WILL NOT BE DECOUPLING
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. STILL, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL HOIST A FREEZE WATCH FOR CENTRAL AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT HAD A HARD FREEZE YET.

COOL, SUNNY DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE BEGIN TO
GET INTO A WARMER ONSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY AND OVER THE NORTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW 70S FOR MANY AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN COMES COMES
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH DOESN`T LOOK A
PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT. SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SOME MODELS LINGER PRECIP INTO MONDAY WHILE OTHERS DRY IT OUT, BUT
ALL MODELS HAVE US DRY BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THEN
PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATER THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT LIKELY AREAS OF MVFR
WITH IFR POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO
MOISTER ONSHORE FLOW. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST
SWELLS.

SHORT TERM: AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR BUT PROBABLY JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-015-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY







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