Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 151114
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
614 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure in the western Great Lakes will move toward the
region tonight. Low pressure will intensify to the south of the
area tonight and is expected to pass well east of Nova Scotia
late tonight. High pressure will slowly build into the area from
the west over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:13 am update: Clear and cold early this morning. Temperatures
are within a few degrees either side of zero across far
northern Maine, and single digits to low teens in the Greater
Bangor Region down to the coast. The wind is still a bit on the
breezy side across far northern Maine where wind chills are in
the 15 to 25 below range, coldest across the higher terrain and
far northwest zones. Other than some very minor tweaks based on
the 6 am observations and the latest satellite pictures, no
significant changes are planned to the ongoing forecast.

Previous discussion...
A weak area of low pressure across the western Great Lakes early
this morning will move east into southern Quebec tonight. Low
pressure in western North Carolina will deepen rapidly today
along a strong baroclinic zone, and will be off the Delmarva
coast this evening, and will pass east of Nova Scotia tonight.
Today will start mainly sunny with some increase in mainly high
clouds this afternoon. It will remain cold with highs from 10 to
15 degrees in the Saint John Valley to the low 20s in the
Greater Bangor Region. Wind chills will be below zero across
much of the region this morning. Moisture will be scant with
the incoming low from the west, but perhaps just enough
for some flurries or an isolated snow shower after midnight
across the western Mountains. An inverted trough associated with
the ocean low will provide the focus for convergence, and with
an influx of ocean moisture some snow may brush the Downeast
coast. The models do not agree so much with some models and
ensembles keeping most of it offshore or to the south, but with
some brushing the coast with an inch or or two of fluffy snow.
Bumped up the PoPs just a bit and have around an inch of snow on
the immediate coast and outer islands, but with little or no
snow expected in the Greater Bangor Region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures below normal through
the upcoming weekend. There could be a bit of snow first thing
Saturday morning along the down east coast in association with
inverted trof/ departing oceanic low. Could also see a few
flurries or snow showers across northern and central portions of
the region associated with mid level short wave moving southeast
from the Great Lakes region. Otherwise expect partly sunny skies
by afternoon. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid and
upper teens north and low to mid 20s down east. Saturday night
looks to be mainly clear and continued cold as high pressure
starts to build east from central Canada. With the high still
well to our northwest there should still be a fairly decent
gradient across the area limiting radiational cooling
potential. That being said, we are still looking at lows ranging
from the single digits below zero north to 5 to 10 above across
central and down east. Sunday will feature abundant sunshine
with light winds as high pressure builds right across the
region. Highs on Sunday will only range from around 10 above
across the far north and low to mid 20s down east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Looks like decent radiational cooling conditions are possible
Sunday evening as high pressure slides across the region and
into the Canadian maritimes. Clouds will be on the increase late
Sunday night in advance of the next short wave approaching the
region from the west. This system has the potential to bring a
chance of light snow to the region on Monday. 00z
NAM/EC/Canadian would support this solution with GFS the drier
model. For now, only low pops (30 to 40%) were indicated for
Monday, with the greater chances down east. Looking further
ahead, weak short waves are forecast to cross the region through
the extended period with snow showers north and snow or rain
showers down east. Temperatures do begin to moderate to closer
to normal by mid week as upper flow becomes more zonal across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected today and tonight. A brief period of
MVFR possible in -sn at KBHB later tonight.

SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR Saturday through Sunday night. MVFR/IFR
possible in some light snow or snow showers Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect this
morning. The gradient slackens by around midday as high pres
builds over the waters into this evening. A few gusts may
approach 25 knots on the coastal waters late tonight as an ocean
storm passes well to the south and east of the waters.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions are possible
Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MEZ001-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...CB/Duda
Marine...CB/Duda


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