Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 280446
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1246 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR
TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END, WITH
JUST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SEEN OVER CENTRAL MAINE. STARTING TO
SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND, DON`T EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS, MEANING IT`LL BE ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH HAS THIS COVERED, SO JUST MADE SOME
TWEAKS TO POPS, SKY, AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A
DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS
DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR
A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT
OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT
FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF
CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND
2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD
HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K
FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM
LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH
WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST
FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN
CONJUNCTIONW/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS
SB/MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON
W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION.
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING
LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT. 0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30
KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LINE OF -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY IN TAF PERIOD FOR HUL WITH
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS MISSING OUT ON THE
PRECIPITATION. MVFR EXPECTED TO SET IN AFTER 00Z AT FVE AND CAR
PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH 08Z. BHB WILL START OFF WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 04Z. BGR WILL LIKELY BE VFR
BEFORE BEING REDUCED TO IFR AFTER 05Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY -TSRA LATE IN TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING
BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6
FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE
WATERS ATTM.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/BLOOMER


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