Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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262
FXUS61 KCAR 092132
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
432 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO
CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST
CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE
HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING
THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS
APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL
ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW
ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL
WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
CHANGE.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH
WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE,
WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT
SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING W/AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE AT MVFR THIS
EVENING W/IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO VFR OVERNIGHT. MVFR FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING, BUT A RETURN
TO MVFR LATER IN THE DAY LOOKS TO BE HIGH PROBABILITY W/SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW. VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB TO START OUT
WEDNESDAY AND THEN DROPPING TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON W/THE
PROBABILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST
SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF
11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL
DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER



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