Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 040213
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1013 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES. COULD ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...THOUGH LOCAL UPPER 30S COULD OCCUR IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. EXPECT MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA TOMORROW. DRIER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPERATURE WILL INITIALIZE WITH THE SUPER BLEND BUT WILL LOWER
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO CREST
OVER THE REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY TRIGGER SOME
SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA SUN NIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AS OF NOW, SO KEPT IT SHWRS. LOOKS LIKE
MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT DID
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS FOR FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF SFC FEATURES JUST TO THE NORTH. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
TSTMS TUESDAY PM AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THEN PUSH THROUGH THE NEXT COOL FRONT NEXT THURS, WITH MORE
SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS.

OVERALL, GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF, AND CANADIAN IS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN - BUT THE CANADIAN ALSO SPINS UP A
COASTAL/TROPICAL LOW LATE IN ITS RUN, SO IT WASN`T STRONGLY
CONSIDERED. IN GENERAL ANY EDITS TO POPS AND PRECIP TIMING WERE
MADE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS.
EXPECT LIGHT DIMINISHING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH. FOR WAVES: WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY EXPECT PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM TO BE SOUTHEAST LONG PERIOD SWELL (AROUND 1 FOOT/11
SECONDS). AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WIND WAVE (AROUND 2 FEET/5 SECONDS) WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BERDES
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE


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