Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 310510
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1210 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE...RADAR IS INDICATING A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS
LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ATTM. ALSO EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO RAMP
UP DOWNEAST AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE
MOVING ONSHORE. WIND ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AT THIS HOUR, SO
BLOWING SNOW IS BECOMING A CONCERN. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
WEATHER AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
SNOWFALL REPORTS. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING NORTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO BE
THE FOCAL POINT FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL START WORKING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF
THE AREA. AS THE LOW PRESSURE REACHES NOVA SCOTIA LATER
TONIGHT...A TROWAL WILL EMERGE OVER DOWN EAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN. THIS DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FEATURE SOME STRONG BANDS OF
SNOW THAT WILL ENABLE SOME AREAS IN DOWN EAST TO TALLY AS MUCH AS
15 INCHES FOR THIS STORM. THE COLD DRY AIR AND DISTANCE FROM THE
STORM WILL LIMIT STORM TOTALS TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH TO AROUND 6
INCHES. HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL
BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL HAVE TWO
MAJOR IMPACTS. FIRST...THE SNOW HAS LITTLE MOISTURE CONTENT AND
WILL BECOME EASILY AIRBORNE. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WHITE-OUTS
AND MAJOR DRIFTING ON SATURDAY. THUS TRAVEL COULD BE MUCH MORE
HAZARDOUS THAN TODAY WITH BLIZZARD- LIKE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. THE SECOND IMPACT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20F BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL OCCUR AT DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM WILL
SHIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY EVENING.  BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AND SET UP THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE GFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -30F WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE.

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.  THE 12Z NAM IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER ON THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS STORM.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW.  ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VIS IMPROVING TO IFR. IFR CONTINUES FOR
ALL SITES UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO
CAUSE REDUCED VIS SATURDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES SATURDAY
EVENING DUE TO SNOW AND FOG FROM A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT KBHB AND KBGR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED TO JUST FALL SHORT OF STORM
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL START SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND HIGH SEAS.  AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS STILL IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/OKULSKI



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