Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 302247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS
QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE`RE ALREADY SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY ATTM, BUT EXPECT
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOWARD DAYBREAK EXCEPT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE ITEMS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND RESULTING IN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON REVIEW OF MODELS WILL USE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TIMING... QPF AND POPS CONTAINING THE
NAM12... GFS40 AND THE ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS...A FEW ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND HVY RNFL...MSLY OVR ERN
AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SUN NGT AS A WEAK A/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS FINISHES
CROSSING THE SRN PTN OF THE FA. LEFT OVR MOISTURE AND A MID LVL
VORT MAX OVR THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHWRS
LATE MON MORN INTO MON EVE WITH LMTD SUNSHINE AND HTG...SPCLY OVR
E CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LESS
THAN 500 J/KG OF MAX SBCAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
THUNDER...SO WE INCLUDED THIS WITH CHC AND GREATER POPS. WE
USED A BLEND OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS TMG WITH POPS AND QPF (WHICH
WAS SLOWER THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE PREV) WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER
OTHER MODELS LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

OTHERWISE...SHWRS SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT...WITH
MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS HANGING ON SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA.
IF CLDS DUE DISSIPATE LATE MON NGT...PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE WITH LEFT OVR BL LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREV SHWRS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN THE FCST FOR THIS PD ATTM.
CLDS SHOULD PART ENOUGH FOR PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUE AFTN AS A
WEAK SRLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS WILL ME MSLY AT OR ABV NORMAL
DURING THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE GREAT LKS STATES WILL APCH TUE NGT
WITH CLDNSS AND A BAND OF SHWRS WITH RELATIVELY LGT QPF (MSLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH) FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED MORN AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MSLY
BY MIDDAY WED. MSLY FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA LATER
WED THRU MOST OF FRI AS AFC HI PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APCHS
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS WITH A FAST MOVG
ZONAL S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL BE FRI NGT INTO SAT. AGAIN WE
USED A BLEND OF LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE TO REACH A
COMPROMISE WITH WX SYSTEM TMG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DIFFERING
MODELS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN ABV NORMAL...THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR OR LOW MVFR IS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
BOTH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING TO MSLY VFR
MON...XCPT BRIEF MVFR IN CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR MON AFTN
AND ERLY EVE. VFR XPCTD MON NGT THRU THU...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR
WITH CLGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 AND WILL
REDUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM FROM LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 2 FEET/9
SECONDS. EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FETCH APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO WAVE WATCH
III WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH DUE TO WIND BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL USE SWAN/NAM SINCE NEAR SHORE MODEL NOT AVAILABLE YET.
TIMING OF SCA STILL LOOKS OK. EXPECT WAVES TO STAY JUST BELOW 5
FEET SUNDAY.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS050-051 SUN EVE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT SUN INTO MON...WITH NO HDLNS
ANTICIPATED FROM TM ONWARD INTO THU. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MARINE
FOG SUN NGT DUE TO WARM MOIST TROP AIR GLIDING OVR THE COLD GULF
OF ME WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES OVR THE WATERS FROM THE W. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN






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