Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 180312
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
812 PM MST THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BEGINNING SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BEFORE
ANOTHER PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM CAUSES A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CAN THEN BE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /402 PM MST/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM NOON ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING HOWEVER...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE STATE.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY ONWARD...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A ROUND OF
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WITH A COOLER AIR MASS...A
DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST UNTIL
AROUND 17-18Z FRIDAY...WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BOTH ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS...INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 PERCENT ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO VALUES FROM 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENT AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/RR
AVIATION.......KD
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








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