Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 021646

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
945 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...For today, cloudy conditions with mainly isolated
rain and snow showers are forecast across northern Arizona.
Any snow accumulations should be below one inch. Expect gusty
northeast winds from tonight through Sunday morning. Dry weather is
on tap for Sunday and Monday. A strong cold front should bring much
colder temperatures and showers on Tuesday and Wednesday.


This mornings water vapor loop shows the trough axis extending from
Yuma through Bryce Canyon. Area radar show very light showers from
srn Yavapai county through Doney Park, this area moving northward.
There are a few breaks in the cloud cover over southern Apache and
Navajo counties now, these are expected to fill in this morning. The
short term forecast is in good shape with no updates.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 528 AM.... For today, a trough is forecast to
deepen over the southwest United States, becoming a closed low
across southern Arizona/northern Mexico by this afternoon and
evening. Cold air accompanying this system will cause a drop in
daytime temperatures, with high temperatures ranging from the low
30`s to mid 40`s for locations along and north of the Mogollon Rim.
Moisture remains limited with this system and mainly isolated
shower activity is expected throughout the day. Any accumulating
snow will be quite sparse. Locations that experience accumulations
are expected to see less than one inch. Dry conditions and warming
temperatures are forecast for Saturday, except perhaps in the
White Mountains region where lingering, isolated showers are

In terms of winds, flow around the low will cause gusty northeast
winds to develop Friday night through midday Sunday. Night time
wind speeds will remain elevated at locations along and
immediately south of the Mogollon Rim. The strongest of these
winds are expected early Sunday morning, with sustained winds in
the 20 to 30 mph range and localized gusts up to 40 mph possible.

Dry weather with near to slightly below normal temperatures are
forecast for Sunday and Monday.

Models solutions have begun to diverge a bit regarding next week`s
weather. The GFS and ECMWF have been somewhat consistent
developing a deep, cold trough across the western United States.
around the middle of the week. The ECMWF has a cold front moving
from north to south across the region on Tuesday. The GFS has had
the cold air arriving a bit earlier, although the newest GFS run
has the majority of the cold air missing Arizona altogether - Will
assume for the moment that this solution can be heavily
discounted. Generally speaking, expect an abrupt drop in
temperatures and chances for rain and high elevation snow during
the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Warming temperatures and dry
weather are forecast for late next work week.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z forecast...VFR conditions are generally
expected across northern Arizona for the next 24 hours though cloud
bases to be bkn-ovc 12kft msl. Expect widely scattered rain and snow
showers MVFR condition with the stronger showers. Aft 06z Sat shower
coverage decreasing from west to east. Sfc winds NE 15-25kt
with higher gusts along and south of the Mogollon Rim.  Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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