Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 302159
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
259 PM MST SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...COOLER
WEATHER IS THE FORECAST...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE IN
THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEST COAST
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE MONDAY CAUSING INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
FORECAST DECREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THIS TIME, EXPECT
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION,
BOTH MODELS FORECAST A CLOSED LOW TO DROP DOWN THE WEST COAST LATE
NEXT WORK WEEK. THE GFS TRACKS THIS LOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
ECMWF, ALLOWING IT TO TAP INTO GOOD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
PREDICT SHOWERS WITHIN NORTHERN ARIZONA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE PRESENT LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION ON THURSDAY, THEN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
REGIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT  CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN FIRE ZONES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...KD


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