Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
FXUS65 KFGZ 221042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
342 AM MST Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the southwest through
mid week with above average high temperatures. Another cold front
could impact the area late this week.


.DISCUSSION...A building ridge of high pressure over the southwest
US will be the main weather feature over the next several days.
This will result in above average temperatures returning to
northern Arizona through Thursday. Winds will generally be out of
the east-northeast into mid week with gusty conditions possible
especially on Tuesday along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Winds
will shift back to the southwest after mid week as a cold front
approaches from the north. There still remains considerable model
disagreement on the exact track of this feature, therefore
confidence remains low on impacts to northern Arizona. Regardless
of the evolution of this feature, a return to normal fall like
temperatures for Friday into the weekend is appearing more likely.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the
next 24 hrs. Light north to northeast winds are forecast across
the majority of northern Arizona, with speeds generally 10 knots
or less. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will
return Sunday and Monday as a strong ridge of high pressure builds
in from the southwest. East to northeast winds will continue in most
areas, gusty at times along and south of the Mogollon Rim.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure will lead to well above
normal temperatures and low RH values. Expect east to northeast
winds Tuesday, likely shifting to the west to southwest on Wednesday
and Thursday. Increasing wind speeds are possible Thursday ahead of
a cold front.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.