Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 281648

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
948 AM MST Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect another round of gusty winds as a cold front
impacts the state today. This will bring colder temperatures to
the region with a chance of showers mainly across eastern Arizona
into Saturday. Dry weather with a strong warming trend starts
Sunday and continues through next week.


.DISCUSSION...Current upper-air and satellite analysis reveals an
upper level closed low current centered over east-central Utah. On
the surface, a cold front has swept from north to south across the
area this morning. It is currently positioned from east to west
roughly from Saint Johns-Show Low-Payson-Prescott. This front is
expected to stall out along the eastern Mogollon and White
Mountains before a secondary push of cold air sweeps across the
area from the north this afternoon and evening.

Frontal forcing ahead of a relatively cold air mass has caused
some snow in far northeast Arizona this morning, including Tsaile
(elevation ~7100 ft MSL) and Chilchinbito (elevation ~6000 ft
MSL). This area of showers is expected to continue to march
southward through the morning hours bringing rain/snow, and a few
thunderstorms, to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
before mid-day.


.PREV DISCUSSION /440 AM MST/...High temperatures behind the
front will be 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday. The strongest
winds with the system are expected in southern Apache County,
including the White Mtns and St Johns areas, where a Wind Advisory
is in effect this afternoon for gusts to 45 mph. Additional
strong winds are expected along and just behind the cold front
across Yavapai County from mid afternoon to early evening and a
Wind Advisory is in effect there as well. Light radar echoes have
been observed overnight across the northern third of the state
near the front, but the lower levels of the atmosphere are very
dry and expect that most of this has been virga of very light
showers. As the front advances southward into a slightly more
moist air mass, there will be a better chance of showers and
possibly some thunderstorms later today across eastern Arizona,
with only a slight chance farther west to the Flagstaff area. The
closed low will move south along the AZ/NM line tonight, then
accelerate eastward across NM on Saturday. The main impact on the
region tonight and Saturday will be cold northerly winds, wind
chills Saturday will be in the 30s & 40s for the high country.
Gusty winds tonight should keep the actual air temperatures from
falling quite as low as previously expected. A few instability
showers could develop Saturday afternoon across eastern Arizona
but most of the region will remain dry.

Sunday through next week - the low heads east and ridging develops
over the western United States. Temperatures will rebound to near
normal by Sunday afternoon, then well above normal readings are
likely Monday through next week. Dry conditions, mainly clear
skies and lighter winds are forecast.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...A cold front moving south through
the area today will bring scattered showers with periodic MVFR
conditions to areas primarily east of a K0V7-KFLG-KPAN line. The
best coverage of showers is expected in the White Mountains region
where thunder is also possible. Expect gusty winds this afternoon
as well. Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A cold front will move south through the area today
bringing a shift to northwesterly winds, cooler temperatures, and a
chance for showers. Very dry air moving in behind the front will
combine with strong winds in Yavapai County to produce critical fire
weather conditions and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect this
afternoon. Cool and breezy weather follows for Saturday with a
chance for showers along the New Mexico border.

Sunday through Tuesday...A period of dry weather with less wind and
warming temperatures is expected.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this
afternoon to 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ108-137.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this evening
FOR AZZ008-037.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MST this evening FOR




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