Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 281641

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
941 AM MST Fri Oct 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mild temperatures through the weekend with
variable cloud cover. There will be a slight chance of showers
today through the weekend, mainly from Flagstaff northwestward.
Dry weather to return for next Monday and Tuesday.


.UPDATE...Substantial cloud cover is draped across the state this
morning ahead of a shortwave trough now over California. This
feature will move east into Nevada this afternoon and then across
Utah overnight. Mostly cloudy conditions will persist into this
evening. There will also be a slight chance for showers favoring
the northern third of the state from late this afternoon through
tonight. Current forecast handles the scenario well with no
morning updates planned.


.PREV DISCUSSION /324 AM MST/... As the ridge of high pressure
begins to slowly exit the four corners region, a Pacific shortwave
trough will move onshore across Central California, Nevada, and
into Utah. Some showers will be possible, as the system moves off
to the North. Most of this precipitation will occur over Northern
Coconino county, and amounts are not anticipated to be widespread.

Additional shortwaves are expected to move north of the area
through the early part of next week. Breezy conditions and
temperatures cooling to near seasonal values are expected with
each subsequent shortwave.

Confidence in the the model solutions for the later half of the
week continues to remain low. While operational model runs
appeared to be arriving at a consensus 24 hours ago, subsequent
runs have diverged. Models continue to show a progressive flow
pattern for the northern tier states, but in the southwest the big
factor will continue to be the large scale ridge, and how it
builds back over Texas and the southern plains. Models continue to
show little consensus over timing and strength of this feature,
and until alignment occurs forecasts in the long term will have
low confidence.


For the 18Z forecast...A weak weather system will brush northern
Arizona today and tonight. Look for broken to overcast cloud bases
lowering through the day, becoming 5-9 kft AGL, with a slight chance
of rain showers mainly west of a KPGA-KPAN line. Surface winds S-SW
15-20 kts gusting to 25 kts, diminishing this evening. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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