Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 281627

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
925 AM MST Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect another day of windy and dry conditions today
as low pressure moves through the Great Basin. Dry conditions will
continue for the remainder of the week, although wind speeds will
decrease. Winds return by Sunday and into early next week.

.DISCUSSION...Updated forecast to include areas of smoke from the
Goodwin Fire. Smoke plume is seen moving more clockwise (northward
to eastward) this morning on satellite. Winds have already picked up
over the LCR this morning. 12Z FGZ sounding had 0.14 inch PW (very
dry) and 20 knot winds just off the surface.  RFW is out for much of
the area from the Mogollon Rim/I-40 northward late morning to
evening. This looks other updates needed.


.PREV DISCUSSION /430 AM MST/..Dry westerly flow will continue to
affect the area through the end of the week, transitioning to weak
northwesterly flow over the weekend. Low pressure in the
northeastern Great Basin will cause gusty southwest winds to
continue today, decreasing Thursday and Friday. A weak area of low
pressure will form over the southern Great Basin over the weekend,
bringing gusty southwest winds back to the area Sunday and into
early next week.

This airmass is very dry and stable, chances for precipitation will
remain near zero for much of the seven day period. Models still
indicate a monsoonal circulation potentially developing after July
4th or 5th.


.AVIATION...For the 18z package...SW wind 15-25 kt with gusts 30-35
kt. Gusty winds should decrease around sunset with light and
variable winds dominating in the overnight hours Wednesday night.
Smoke from area wildfires may affect flight paths. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwesterly winds and single digit relative
humidity values will result in another day of critical fire weather
for most locations along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Winds will
lessen in intensity on Thursday. No precipitation is expected over
the next few days.

Friday through Sunday...Thunderstorm chances will remain low with
only a slight chance in the White Mountains on Sunday. Winds speeds
will be generally light on Friday with some increase over the
weekend. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through this



Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
for AZZ104-106-107-109-112>116-139-140.




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