Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 040358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST TUE MAR 03 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRIER AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD.
A WARMING TREND WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THINGS ARE MUCH QUIETER THAN WHAT WAS ADVERTISED BY
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING MODEL RUNS...THIS DESPITE THE OVERALL
PATTERN NOT REALLY CHANGING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH AXIS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS STILL AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...YET CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEVER REALLY GOT GOING TODAY. OUR
GUESS IS THAT THE RAIN AND SNOW COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME WEAK
MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS A BIT MUCH TO OVERCOME. THIS WILL STILL BE
THE PROBLEM TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THERE IS JUST
NOT ENOUGH LIFT. THE TROUGH AXIS ITSELF MAY PROVIDE A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES FROM FROM NW TO SE...BUT IF THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SHOW MORE DRYING...WE WILL DROP MOST OF THE POPS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES DRYING AND WARMING AS THIS
WINTERS DOMINANT WEST COAST RIDGE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MAINLY SKC OR SCT LOW AND
MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z-17Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA AND -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SAME PERIOD...WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ALL AREAS VFR AFT 18Z
WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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