Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 300335
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND LAST THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS EVENT...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
EXPECTED ABOVE 8000 FEET AND HEAVY AMOUNTS ABOVE 8500 FEET. SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW WAS
BEING REPORTED NEAR THE 9000 FOOT LEVEL WITH ALL ELSE RAIN. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ALL-IN-ALL OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS
AS OF MID EVENING WERE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

MODEL FORECASTS SHOW DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. THE LOW CENTER IS SHOWN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NEAR LAS
VEGAS NEVADA BY 5 PM FRIDAY. THE PATH OF THE LOW CENTER BRINGS HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MODERATE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE SNOW LEVEL FORECAST ARE: FOR TONIGHT...ABOVE 9500 FEET ACROSS
THE BOARD TO START...AND FALLING TO AROUND 8000 FEET ALONG THE UTAH
BORDER AND NEARING 8500 FEET IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND BY
SATURDAY MORNING BE AROUND 6500 FEET ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TO 7500
FEET ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BELOW
8500. ABOVE 8500 FEET THOUGH STORM TOTALS SHOULD BE IN THE 18 TO 30
INCH RANGE.

ON SATURDAY, THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD BACK INTO
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL AS NORTHEAST FLOW
WRAPS MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL / LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
5 PM SATURDAY RANGE FROM 0.5 INCH IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO 2.25
INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST STARTING
SUNDAY. NORTHERN ARIZONA CAN LOOK FORWARD TO DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 8500 FEET FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONE 017 FROM 5AM
FRIDAY THROUGH 5 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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