Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 220433

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
933 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Another winter storm will impact northern Arizona
Sunday afternoon through Monday night with additional moderate to
heavy snow accumulations above the 6000 foot level, with lighter
amounts down to 5000 feet. Expect hazardous driving conditions
due to snow and blowing snow. Expect precipitation to wind down
Tuesday with very cold temperatures through Thursday.


.UPDATE...Precipitation has all but ended over northern Arizona
this evening. A few flurries could still linger over the mountains
of Apache County. Will be issuing an update for much colder
temperatures in a few spots such as the Grand Canyon Airport and
to lower POPS. The third and powerful storm in this series will
arrive Sunday afternoon through Monday night. This storm could
have stronger winds than the previous two storms and more


.PREV DISCUSSION /600 PM MST/...The storm that brought heavy snow
to the higher elevations over the past few days is moving away
from the region this afternoon, with some lingering snow showers
through early this evening mainly east of a Flagstaff to Payson
line. Winter Storm Warning and advisory products will expire at 6
PM. There will be a break in the weather later tonight through
much of Sunday, though increasing moisture ahead of the next
system will bring a chance of rain and snow back to western
Arizona by afternoon with snow levels close to 5000 ft. Snow and
rain is expected to increase later Sunday evening and continue all
the way through Monday night as strong upslope flow and increasing
large scale lift affect the region. Snow levels should rise to
5500 to 6000 ft or so Sunday night, then fall to below 5000 ft
late Monday. There is a potential for additional heavy snow
accumulations for elevations above 6000 ft, with lighter amounts
down to around 5000 ft. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued from
the Kaibab Plateau across the Mogollon Rim, into northern Gila and
Yavapai counties above the 6000 ft level from Sunday evening
through late Monday night, for a general 6-12 inches of snow.
Locally higher amounts possible along southwest facing slopes.
Forecast snow amounts for northeast Arizona and the White
mountains are lower and these areas were not included in the
watch, but could later be added to advisory products in needed.

By Tuesday afternoon clearing conditions are expected however cold
air will reside across the region through at least Thursday with
overnight lows expected to drop down near zero degrees in prone
locations with widespread single digits to teens across the high
country. Lower elevations like the Little Colorado River Valley
will see values closer to low 20s... with the lowest elevations
struggling to climb back into the mid thirties. Temperatures will
slowly begin to rebound by next weekend however the significant
snow cover will work against any quick warming trend..and could
allow for extremely cold temperatures in the high altitude cold
basins tuesday night and beyond if clear skies and calm winds
develop. For the time being have not jumped onto these extremely
cold conditions for mid week just yet.


.AVIATION...for the 06Z forecast...Areas of fog may form
overnight at locations that experience clearing with periods of
MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Another weather system will move
across northern Arizona on Sunday. Expect increasing rain and
snow showers from west to east beginning after 15Z Sunday. This
will bring strong winds and IFR to LIFR conditions...or worse. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening
through late Monday night FOR AZZ004-006>008-015-016-018.




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