Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302236
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
336 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY AND SHOULD
LEAD TO LESS STORM COVERAGE IN THIS AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER
DELAYED CONVECTION OVER AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON IS CAUSING STORMS WEST OF I-17 AND NORTH OF I-40 TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST. STORMS SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF ARE GENERALLY MOVING
NORTH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING THEN
DECREASE AFTER DARK.

THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY....AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN TO WESTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...PUSHING
THE MONSOON PLUME EASTWARD. BY MONDAY...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE EAST OF I-17 TO PAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THOUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. STORMS WILL TO
DECREASE AFT 03Z FRI. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY EXPECTED HAZARDS.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DOWNTURN IN STORM ACTIVITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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