Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 261436

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
936 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 932 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

As the Southeast and mid Appalachia remains under the influence of
the surface high pressure system centered over WV, the weather will
remain dry and calm today. The main impact that is still lingering
for some of the area is patchy dense fog.

The patchy dense fog has for the most part dissipated across the
rivers, valleys, and lakes. The main exception is over northeast
Alabama where patchy fog is still hovering across the TN River close
to Scottsboro and further northeast in Jackson County. This will
likely remain in place over the next couple of hours. Made some
slight changes to the weather grids to keep fog in slightly longer.

As the fog dissipates, temperatures will continue to warm this
morning with afternoon highs forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s.
Only modest trend changes were necessary for the temperatures and
dewpoints. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks fine.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Little change in the overall wx pattern is xpcted tonight and into
mid week, with the sfc/upper ridge remaining fairly stagnant from the
NE states into the region. Patchy fog may be a little more widespread
by early Wed morning, as dew pts remain well in the mid 60s for most
areas. Another warm/muggy day is then xpcted on Wed, with afternoon
highs once again climbing well into the mid/upper 80s range, under
predom mostly sunny skies.

The latest model suites are still hinting at the well advertised cold
front out of the Plains states dropping into the region out of the NW
and approaching the local area later in the day on Wed. Latest models
remain consistent though showing little/if any moisture return ahead
of the front, as low level flow turns well to the N prior to the
front moving into the mid TN Valley. The cold front itself looks to
sweep thru the area late Wed into Thu, with perhaps just a slight
increase in cloud cover xpcted during the day Thu. The cooler air
still looks displaced to the NW behind the lead frontal passage about
12 hrs or so, with temp trends really not responding to the cooler
air until the day Thu. As such, one more early morning in the mid to
perhaps upper 60s is xpcted early Thu. Afternoon temps that day then
look to only climb into the lower 80s, as the cooler air filters
into the area from the NNW.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

A cold front that moved across the region earlier in the day should
be well south of the Tennessee Valley by Thursday evening. Also
around that time, Maria should be a tropical storm intensity wise,
and moving further eastward away from the continent. High pressure
building eastward from the northern High Plains to the New England
coast, will bring dry weather for the extended period.

Along with dry weather, cooler conditions will be realized too. After
recent daily highs average 5-10 degrees (sometimes a tad more) above
seasonable norms, a cool down to, and below average temperatures are
expected. After a cooler mid/upper 50s Thursday night, high temps
should warm only into the mid/upper 70s. This will be close to
normal highs for Friday, which are around 80. Similar conditions are
in the forecast on Saturday. Although the area will be under cold
air advection, plentiful sunshine will make end of September and
beginning of October rather comfortable for most outdoor activities
this time of year. Again, no rain is expected into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Other than some -br or vis in the 2-4SM range near the KMSL airport
early this morning, VFR conds are xpcted thru the afternoon period.
Some -br/MVFR vis are again possible late tonight into early Wed.





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