Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 262013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
313 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016


Latest water vapor imagery shows a upper level low over the northern
Great Lakes region, with upper level ridging over much of the
western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extended from the parent
low over the Great Lakes, southwestward into the lower MS Valley. A
line of showers and storms that developed earlier in the day has
reached the far SE portion of the CWA and would expect most of this
activity to push out of the area by sunset. The main cold front has
reach through the western half of the CWA, though lingering post
frontal showers were noted with the main trough axis over portions of
western TN and northern MS. As this activity moves east, it may clip
the northern portion of the area, however current thinking is that
most of the area will be rain free this evening and overnight.
Northerly flow behind the front will bring in the colder air during
the overnight hours, with forecast lows reaching into the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

The upper level low will begin to dig southward on Tuesday and
Wednesday. There are some slight discrepancies with how far south
the front reaches, and whether this provides additional lift for
showers across the SE. However, feel that the front will make it
south of our area overnight and the isentropic analysis shows little
to no forcing for ascent. Therefore will continue with a dry
forecast after 06Z this evening. Temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday will be very nice compared to what we have observed over
the last few weeks, with highs expected to remain upper 70s to lower
80s and lows around 50.

Precip chances will increase slightly on Wednesday night and into
Thursday as the upper low reaches into the Ohio Valley and a weaker
vort max rotates around the base of this trough over the NE portion
of the area. Not expecting much coverage as moisture will remain
limited. However, given the stronger forcing, there may be an
isolated light shower or two. This will also send a reinforcing cold
front through the area, and forecast highs may have a tough time
warming above the mid 70s on Thursday and Friday.

The upper low will begin to shift northward overnight Friday, with
near zonal flow expected across the TN Valley over the weekend.
Temperatures are expected to moderate slightly, with highs warming
into the low to mid 80s by Sunday.



(Issued 1248 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016)
For 18Z TAFs:
A transitional period as a cold front moves across the region.
Limited moisture/instability should keep shower coverage isolated to
scattered at times. As such, included VCSH in for both sites this
afternoon. Not enough confidence to include thunder this issuance,
but an isolated storm cannot be totally ruled out. Winds across the
area should become NNW around 10kt this afternoon and evening. Colder
air and post-frontal showers should produce MVFR CIGs during the
late night. VFR weather should return after daybreak as drier air
dissipates lower level clouds over the region.



Huntsville    59  81  52  83 /  20  10   0  10
Shoals        57  80  53  82 /  20   0   0   0
Vinemont      60  81  54  82 /  40  10   0  10
Fayetteville  56  78  52  80 /  20  10   0  10
Albertville   60  81  55  82 /  40  10   0  10
Fort Payne    60  81  53  80 /  30  10  10  10




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