Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 050511 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 909 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
FIREWORKS SHOWS ARE GETTING A LITTLE WET THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TN VALLEY. RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PARENT
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND THIS
IS DRIVING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
ALABAMA. DESPITE MESOANALYSIS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATING ROBUST
INSTABILITY, LITTLE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISPLAYED ANY
LIGHTNING IN THE REGION--THAT HAS OCCURRED EITHER TO THE NORTH, NEAR
I-40 (IN WHAT COULD BE CALLED A DEFORMATION AXIS), OR TO THE SOUTH
NEAR I-20.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT MURKY. SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT
HAS NOT HANDLED THIS PATTERN PARTICULARLY WELL AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT, THOUGH THE HRRR IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR OFF RIGHT
NOW. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE, ALTHOUGH
ANY CHANGES SHOULD BE MINOR DUE TO RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS HOVERING NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN HELPING TO SATURATE THIS SOIL THIS EVENING, IT MAKES SENSE TO
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE 12Z/05 EXPIRATION TIME.
TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE AND WILL REQUIRE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FIT
ONGOING TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...TWO VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS AT KHSV AND KMSL RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRY SLOT. AT KMSL...LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP OR MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL...ALLOWING FOG TO FORM
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AT KHSV...LIFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MAY STAY
PARKED THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. SCTD SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES
THOUGH ADDITIONAL VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF. EXPECTING
FREQUENT UPDATES TO BE NECESSARY AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO TN.
CONDITIONS AT KHSV WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH BOTH
SITES DEVELOPING VFR CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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