Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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727
FXUS61 KILN 130601
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SNOW SQUALL EVENT ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS COMING TO AN
END...WITH THE FINAL HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW LEAVING LEWIS AND SCIOTO
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A
FEW LEGITIMATE EMBEDDED SQUALLS...PRODUCED QUICK ACCUMULATIONS
AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS (ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH). IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT HAS GONE PAST...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SNOW SHOWERS (AND WIDESPREAD FLURRIES) WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. ONE OF THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (EASTERN INDIANA AND
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO). SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TRACE AMOUNTS THROUGH
MORNING.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT MIN TEMP OR SKY FORECASTS...AS
THESE APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY (AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FURTHER SOUTH) WILL
CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM
THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25
SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER
THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL LIGHTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AND
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KCVG AND KLUK. CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE BY MORNING HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AND WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION
HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-
     058-059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK



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