Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 230859
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
359 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers may develop today ahead of a cold frontal boundary
entering Northwest Ohio. More showers will be possible tonight
when the boundary is forecast to lift back north as a warm
front. A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms
late Friday, with severe weather possible. Colder air and brisk
winds will follow the front on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front extends across Illinois from low pressure over
Northern Michigan. Moisture is increasing in the southerly flow
ahead of the front, producing some low clouds and BR. Models
show scattered showers developing as the front slowly approaches
NW Ohio, though that may be overdone with no radar echoes
evident yet. Kept slight chance PoPs for this event. Frontal
progress is likely to stall over Northern Ohio by late
afternoon as the front becomes nearly parallel to the 500 mb
flow.

Temperatures will continue to be anomalously warm, reaching the
mid and upper 60s, possibly attaining record highs at CMH and
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Front is forecast to lift north to Lake Erie tonight as a warm
front ahead of deepening low pressure moving to Illinois.
Showers will be possible in isentropic lift near the front,
mainly over northern locations.

For Friday, the low is expected to travel to Lake Michigan,
while a strong cold front swings into Indiana. Potent moisture
and temperature advection on a southerly low level jet will
cause convergence and instability to increase by afternoon,
resulting in a chance of thunderstorms well ahead of the cold
front. Thunderstorms will become likely in western counties by 6
pm Friday when the thunderstorms are forecast to congeal into a
line. Strong wind fields suggest better than average storm
organization and potency, and damaging wind gusts will be
possible with some of the storms.

Temperatures rising to the low and mid 70s should break daily
record highs, and monthly highs will also be in jeopardy (see
Climate section below).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong mid level jet of 100 plus kts to pivot northeast from the
Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes Friday evening. Deepening surface
low to eject northeast through the Great Lakes Friday night with a
strong cold front sweeping east across ILN/s FA between 06Z and 09Z.
Numerical models have generally trended further southeast with the
surface wave, closer to previous ECMWF solutions. With surface
dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s model solutions are showing
MLCAPES values of 750 to 1000 j/kg Friday evening ahead of this
surface front. Forecast soundings show favorable shear for initially
supercells transitioning to linear storm mode. The threat exists for
damaging winds, large hail and the possibility of tornadoes. The
latest SPC SWODY2 has expanded the enhanced risk for severe storms
Friday night to include most of ILN/s FA. Will continue to highlight
this severe weather threat in the HWO product.

In the wake of the front windy conditions are likely in the CAA
pattern later Friday night into Saturday. Momentum transfer method
applied to forecast soundings across west central Ohio indicate wind
gusts up to 40 mph will be possible into Saturday afternoon.

A few showers will be possible Saturday across west central Ohio due
to the passage of the mid level trof but the best moisture and lift
looks to stay north of ILN/s FA. Surface high pressure to build in
Sunday providing dry weather and more seasonable Temperatures.

Model solutions then diverge on the timing and placement of systems
in quick zonal flow. GFS solution showing wave moving through on
Monday, while ECMWF is holds pcpn off until Monday night with a warm
front lifting north. Due to uncertainty will limit pops to a slight
chance late Sunday night into Monday. This pcpn may start as a
rain/snow mix, changing to rain Monday.

A better threat of rain showers looks to occur late Monday into
Tuesday, as this front returns north as a warm front with a surface
wave of low pressure developing in the central plains.

With this low traveling through the Great Lakes a sfc cold front
sweeps east through the Ohio Valley Wednesday. In the warm sector
ahead of this front will allow for highs in the middle 50s to lower
60s for a chance for thunder.

Northwest flow develops with surface high pressure building in next
Thursday. This will provide dry weather and more seasonable
temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TAFs to be affected by a cold front approaching from the
northwest. Low level moisture increasing on a southerly flow is
forecast to converge ahead of the front this morning, producing
MVFR conditions and isolated rain showers. Observations close to
TAF sites are beginning to show MVFR which lends some confidence
to the early part of the forecast. MVFR is expected to persist
into the afternoon before ceilings lift above 3000 ft. A return
to MVFR could occur late in the forecast, aided by additional
moisture advection to the south of the strengthening front which
will be lifting north to Lake Erie as a warm front. Winds are
forecast to stay under 10 knots out of the south to southwest.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday and Friday night.
MVFR ceilings and vsbys are possible Saturday and Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures
Date     CVG           CMH                DAY
Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985)
Fri 2/24 72(1930)      72(1961)      67(1930/1961)

February Record Highs

CVG 76 set 2/10/1932
CMH 75 set 2/26/2000
DAY 73 set 2/11/1999 and 2/25/2000

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio
CLIMATE...


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