Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 221051
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED TO OUR NORTH OVER THE SRN GREAT
LAKES. MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO THE
NRN ZONES THIS MORNING. RADAR MOSAIC WAS STILL INDICATING A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MOST OF THIS WILL FALL APART BY SUNRISE.

FOR LATER TODAY...AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE TO BRING CLOUDS A PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IF THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO BE EXPANDED WESTWARD. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE
REALIZED. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER
70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING.
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SE CWFA SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MIX OF SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS A SHEARED OUT S/WV MOVES ACRS THE REGION.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.

HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL UNDERGO
AMPLIFICATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE DELAYED TO PERHAPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AS UPPER
HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST KEEPS PCPN TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S EACH DAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS OF 11Z. COLD FRONT
AND ATTENDANT SCT-BKN BAND OF VFR CIGS ORIENTED ACROSS NERN IND
INTO NRN OH AND SAGGING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT BULK OF THESE VFR CIGS
AND DYING SHOWERS TO MOVE NORTH/EAST OF CMH/LCK TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. FRONT SLOWS AS IT ENTERS SOUTHERN OHIO WITH VEERING WEAK
FLOW INCREASING A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 17-18KT. CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF COLUMBUS
DOWN INTO SCNTL OHIO...PERHAPS AS FAR BACK AS WILMINGTON WHERE A
VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.

FRONT CLEARS ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING
QUICKLY NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ASIDE
FROM SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS...EXPECT NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBY
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...BINAU










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