Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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481
FXUS61 KILN 291047
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
647 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area late this afternoon into
tonight. High pressure will build in through mid week. Another
cold front will cross the region Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clouds and some moisture are being drawn northward into the region
from Bonnie. Cannot rule out some showers developing in this plume
this morning and affecting eastern counties before shifting off to
the east.

Expect scattered convection to develop in the afternoon as the
atmosphere destabilizes and a weak cold front approaches from the
west. Appears that shear will remain weak, so the chance of
organized storms is very low. But there could be enough
instability for some stronger storms that approach severe limits.
Convection will continue across eastern counties into the evening
before diminishing. The front will not move through all counties
until well after midnight.

Forecast temperatures did not stray too far from MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build into the region during this time frame.
Dew points will lower slightly. And this will allow for somewhat
cooler night time temperatures. But highs will still be in the
lower to mid 80s with readings a bit warmer Tuesday compared to
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure east of the region at the beginning of the period
should still keep dry and warm conditions in place. A cold front
will move in from the west on Thursday bringing the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms. 00Z guidance in reasonable agreement
that this front will move east of the area Thursday night.
Meanwhile upper low will close off along the Texas coast. So the
threat of precipitation being drawn back into the southeast
counties has diminished. Temperatures will fall slightly below
normal late in the week as high pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few light showers will move across the area at the beginning of
the TAF period. The better chance for precipitation will be this
afternoon and this evening. Thunderstorm chances this afternoon
are expected to be limited to the western TAF sites as an upper
level disturbance moves through. This feature will weaken as it
moves east. Additional thunderstorms are expected with the front
later during the evening hours. Cloud cover will then decrease
tonight and winds will be light. River valley fog will be possible
at KLUK.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Novak



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