Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 301508
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1108 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME THIN CIRRUS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM IS
QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE QPF
FIELDS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WIDER IN COVERAGE AND LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY HOURS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO HAD ME
PUT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

EVEN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AIR WORKING IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING HAS KILLED ANY FOG. SOME
LINGERING CI AND CU/SC WILL THIN OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN SOME
ADDITIONAL SCT CU COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAYBE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR...MOST TAFS WILL SEE NO
FOG. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY AT LUK FOR SOME MVFR FOG TOWARD
SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT THINK THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO LEAVE OUT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...KURZ
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES



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