Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 050159
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BRINGING A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA...BUT WE/LL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AROUND...AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

BASED ON RADAR...INITIALLY THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA BUT WITH WRAP AROUND
FROM THE UPPER LOW EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA...THE MIAMI VALLEY AND INTO
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW AND A LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAYING OUT OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL KEEP A
CLOUDY AND COOL AIRMASS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CURVE
CYCLONICALLY AND WRAP FROM EASTERN OHIO THROUGH WESTERN OHIO AS
THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH KENTUCKY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE
LIFTING MECHANISM OF THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW-SE LATER THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MAKE A REBOUND OUT OF THE UPPER 50S/60S ON
FRIDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AS BUILDING
HEIGHTS TAKE PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S
TONIGHT AND MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE WARMING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL FIND THE REGION IN A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN...WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING EXITED TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER
LARGER CLOSED LOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS LOW
DROPS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS OHIO...AS WELL AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD SWATH OF PRECIP TO PUSH
ACROSS ILN...GENERALLY STARTING IN THE NW CWA IN THE
MORNING...EXPANDING THROUGH 18Z...AND COVERING THE MUCH OF THE CWA
BY 0Z SUNDAY. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS OF
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH KY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH PRECIP FINALLY COMING TO AN
END ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING /EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER/ AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM BEHIND. THIS
AIR WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER...WITH STRONG NRLY FLOW RESULTING IN
GOOD CAA. WHILE SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S...CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR SUNDAY.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE
IN THE DAY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH POPS BACK
NORTHWARD AND ACROSS ILN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST AND PRECIP
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OHIO FASTER. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...BEST
PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS OHIO WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL LIKELY STICK TO A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS
PERIOD. ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT THE RETURN OF WAA...WITH
LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE /OR CLOSED
LOW ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE INCOMING
BOUNDARY...STRONG WAA IN PLACE...AND INCREASING MOISTURE OFF OF THE
GULF COAST...COULD WILL BE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING MUCH OF ILN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. BEST
COVERAGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS CLOSER FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED SOUTH OF ALL SITES THIS EVENING.
BRUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF CVG/LUK AND SOUTH
OF CMH/LCK WITH THUNDER HAVING COME TO AN END. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE DECREASING AND CONTINUING
TO VEER NORTHWEST.

CURRENT VFR CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS
EVENING AND LIKELY FALL TOWARD IFR CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CRITERIA SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY MORNING AND LINGER
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR MID-LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND AN
APPRECIABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GUSEMAN
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN/FRANKS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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