Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 191737
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW DIURNAL CU...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SOME
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE...SHOULD
HELP LIMIT BR DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OR SPRINKLES TOWARD
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.
CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH THOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL






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