Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 270556

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
156 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will develop today into tonight as low
pressure moves to Lake Michigan. After a brief visit by high
pressure and drier air early Monday, another low will bring more
showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. Dry weather can
be expected Wednesday under high pressure.


A weakening upper level low and an associated trough axis will
continue to pivot off to our northeast overnight. This will
allow for the scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms to
taper off through the early morning hours.


Monday an area of upper level low pressure will push east across
the central United States. This second system will be right on
the heals of the Sunday upper level low and will bring a quick
return for the chance of showers and thunderstorms. After the
brief break Monday morning the upper level low will move towards
Illinois with pockets of PVA crossing the ILN forecast area.
PWATs will also be on the rise towards 1.10" (NAM and GFS). The
best upper level lift from the RRQ will be further south towards
Kentucky but with a weak upper level jet streak moving overhead
think upper level support will be more than sufficient. MU CAPE
values on the NAM across the southern zones are nearing 1500
J/kg while are only around 500 J/kg on the GFS. On the GFS the
greatest 0-3km bulk shear is also further south across KY. The
NAM on the other hand is more north with the greatest shear and
instability. Thanks to the mentioned above SPC has most of the
area in a marginal risk.


Severe risk continues into Monday evening as an area of low
pressure moves across the region. Isolated damaging winds,
isolated large hail, and isolated tornadoes will be possible.
Have this highlighted in the HWO. Severe threat will diminish
later in the overnight hours as the area of low pressure moves
out of the region.

Additional showers and some thunderstorms will be possible
across primarily the southeastern half of the forecast area on
Tuesday closer to a frontal boundary. Dry conditions are then
expected for Wednesday and Wednesday night in between systems.

A warm front will lift northward on Thursday allowing for
showers and some thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will continue for Friday as a cold front moves through.
Precipitation will taper off Friday night into Saturday morning.

Another system will move into the area on Sunday. There are more
model differences with this system therefore limited
precipitation chances to the chance category.


Area lies under weak high pressure situated between low
pressure systems to the north and southwest. Models have
presented a relatively good depiction of this scenario for the
last few days, lending some confidence to the forecast, though
the details like ceiling height are still going to be tricky.

Early in the forecast, conditions will be mainly VFR under the
temporarily dry airmass, though FG will impact LUK through early
morning. Other TAF sites may see MVFR ceilings later this
morning before VFR returns by afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms will return later in the forecast with
low pressure advancing from the southwest. Showers may arrive
early in the afternoon, with thunderstorms developing in the
vicinity by evening in increasing instability and forcing ahead
of the low. A period of MVFR is expected with the thunderstorms,
and IFR is possible at CVG after 06z Tuesday.

Winds shifting from southwest to southeast are forecast to
remain below 10 knots.


OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible
into Tuesday morning.




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