Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 010226
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1026 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DURING THE
LATTER PARTS OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER FROM
WARREN/CLERMONT COUNTIES OVER TO HOCKING COUNTY. KEPT THEM IN THE
FORECAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OF SO.

FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NW HALF OF
THE FA. IN THE SOUTH...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE ERN U.S. TROF WILL SPREAD SOME CI THRU THE SRN TAFS
ALONG WITH MAYBE KEEPING THE AC GOING.

LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE WEEKS END. A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A KINK IN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS WILL PERMIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS AT A MINIMUM...SO SCATTERED GARDEN-VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 OR IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY...RATHER NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER.
31.00Z AND 31.00Z GEFS/NAEFS ANOMALIES SUGGEST LOW/MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS AND TEMPS...AS WELL AS PWATS ALL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS IT IS NO SURPRISE TO SEE VERY LOW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ON ECMWF/GEFS MOS DATA...AND DETERMINISTIC MOS
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SUMMERTIME NORMALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THUS...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...LOWER
80S IN CENTRAL/WESTCENTRAL OHIO TO MID AND UPPER 80S IN NORTHERN
KENTUCKY WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL SUMMERTIME WX FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES...STILL UNCERTAINTY ON SUNDAY. RECENT
TRENDS IN DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF IS FOR SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSION/QUICKNESS IN THE SHARP MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH WHATEVER WEAK
FORCING MORE FOCUSED EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL
MIDLEVEL TROUGHING IN A POSI-TILT FASHION FROM PA BACK INTO THE
OZARKS AS A PIECE OF ENERGY SEPARATES FROM THE FLOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. KEPT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BUT
THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL TO FOCUS ON FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
WITH SUCH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...HAVE TO THINK THAT IF ANYTHING
OCCURS TO THE WEST /SOUTHWEST OHIO/SERN IND/FAR NRN KY IT IS GOING
TO BE AWFULLY LIGHT/ISOLATED.

SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND TROUGHING
IN THE MIDLEVELS BECOMES FLATTER AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE SUNDAY WAVE. TUESDAY I AM PROBABLY A
LITTLE AGGRESSIVE ON RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH...MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS STILL PRETTY NEGLIGIBLE BUT THERE IS SOME INFLUENCE/MINOR
LOWERING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK RETURN FLOW THAT
MAY PROMOTE A FEW STORMS TO SAG FROM MI/IND INTO OUR NORTH TUES/TUES
NIGHT. NOT THRILLED ABOUT THE CHANCES AND I MAY PULL THIS CHANCE ON
NEXT ISSUANCE IF SIGNAL DOESN/T IMPROVE.

A LITTLE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE PUSH BY THURSDAY AS FLOW
INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WITH ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE. OUR BL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE
INCREASING BY THEN /MID UPPER 60S DWPTS/ VIA EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SO
THIS IS WORTH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS.

OVERALL...SUMMER WX FINALLY RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH 80S BY
DAY...60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT -SHRA OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME SRN OH FROM
NR KLUK EWD TO E OF KRZT...CHILLICOTHE OHIO. EXPECT THIS TO LINGER
AN HOUR OR SO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR HOWEVER. BKN AC AROUND KCVG/KLUK/KILN SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED WITH BY 2-3Z.

SRN STREAM ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE PERSISTENT ERN
U.S. TROF MIGHT BRING SOME CI TO THE SRN TAFS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
NORMAL FOG LOCATIONS OF KILN...KLUK...AND KLCK. TOOK KLUK DOWN TO
IFR DUE TO THE RIVER VALLEY FOG.

ON FRIDAY...AN H5 DISTURBANCE IN THE NRN STREAM WILL DIG TOWARD
THE AREA WHILE THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE EJECTS NORTHEAST THROUGH
SE OH. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE 2 SYSTEMS. EXPECT A
BROKEN CU DECK TO DECK TO DEVELOP WITH THE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
THE AREA. FRIDAY COULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER E
OF LUK...S OF ILN. WILL LEAVE THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...SITES





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