Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
FXUS64 KLIX 290056
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
756 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
The sounding this evening depicts an atmosphere that has been
modified at low levels by storms in the vicinity earlier today.
There are only a couple subtle indications from about 770 to 500
mb of a subsidence inversion. Winds are easterly from the sfc to
700 mb then become westerly aloft. Mixed layer CAPE is 1200 J/KG
but the last remaining storms in the area will dissipate now that
the sun has set. PW is near average at 1.53 inches.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)...
Shortwave trough, extending from a low over the upper Mississippi
valley all the way south to the central Gulf coast will exit the
region tonight into Sunday, and be replaced by a mid/upper ridge
building over the western to central Gulf coast region. Mid to
upper level divergence has been pronounced over the forecast area,
and this helped more showers and thunderstorms develop today then
we`ve seen in over a week. Some mid/upper divergence will continue
Sunday through Memorial Day and Tuesday, so have kept mention of
a slight chance of diurnal showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast. Less cloud cover will lead to warmer highs with near 90
to lower 90s becoming more common.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday night)...
The influence of the ridge will weaken on Wednesday and especially
late in the week as a trough starts to develop near to just west
of the lower Mississippi Valley. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will probably remain on the low side on Wednesday,
but then go up Thursday into Friday. The system should start to
move east of the region over the weekend, so drier conditions
should return. Temperatures should start to lower with the higher
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the forecast area this
afternoon. These storms should diminish after sunset. They have a
history of producing heavy rain. Otherwise expect MVFR to VFR
conditions through the TAF period. There is a chance for some light
fog overnight and have accounted for in TAFs. Expect VFR conditions
to prevail for Sunday. &&
A weak pressure pattern and period of lighter winds and lower seas
will make for mostly ideal boating conditions the remainder of the
holiday weekend through much of next week. The main exception will
be over portions of the eastern coastal waters late this afternoon
where some stronger thunderstorms will produce frequent lightning
strikes, torrential rainfall and gusty winds.
DSS code: Green.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 67 90 68 90 / 10 10 10 20
BTR 69 90 71 91 / 10 10 10 30
ASD 68 89 69 91 / 10 20 10 20
MSY 73 89 73 90 / 10 20 10 30
GPT 71 89 72 91 / 10 20 10 20
PQL 66 86 67 90 / 10 20 10 20