Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLIX 050909
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
409 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM... CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS AND A TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. THAT PUTS THE CWA IN SOMEWHAT OF A ZONAL
REGION SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CONTINUES TO BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER WEST
TEXAS. 00Z LIX UA SOUNDING SHOWED THAT PRECIP WATER HAS RISEN ABOVE
2 INCHES. A WEAK RESIDUAL TROUGH AXIS STILL EXISTS ALONG THE COAST
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY. IN FACT...SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THIS
MORNING. OFFSHORE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
DWINDLING. BY THEN...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE INLAND OVER
LA AND MS. GREATEST PROBS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...EAST OF BTR. RAIN ACTIVITY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
HIGHS MORE LIMITED IN THAT AREA. FURTHER WEST...SHOULD STILL SEE
HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM... RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHER AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA ERODED AND THUS REDUCE SUBSIDENCE TO
RESULT IN INCREASED CONVECTION COVERAGE.

GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EAST WHILE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. LATEST RUNS
OF MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER AND FURTHER EASTWARD POSITION OF THE
RIDGE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES HOWEVER AGREE WITH MODEL OUTPUTS
FROM 12 HOURS AGO. SO THAT CONSISTENCY AIDES IN THE REASONING FOR
TAPERING OFF POPS EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...NOT LOOKING LIKE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOARING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL 925MB TEMPS NEAR 30 DEGREES SUGGESTS VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE COMING. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH TRIPLE
DIGITS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE UNDER THOSE CONDITIONS.

MEFFER &&


.AVIATION...

VRF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. 18

&&

.MARINE...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND WESTERLY FLOW HAS REPLACED THE NORTHERLY FLOW. THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH FLORIDA IS EXPECTED LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER EAST GULF WHILE A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. 18

&&
.DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM RED             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  76  96  76 /  40  20  30  10
BTR  95  77  96  78 /  40  20  30  10
ASD  91  79  92  79 /  60  40  60  10
MSY  91  79  92  80 /  60  30  50  10
GPT  89  79  90  79 /  60  50  60  20
PQL  88  78  89  78 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.