Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 131324
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
824 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

BALLOON SOUNDING SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS WITH A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AT THE SURFACE AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MAINLY OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
WITH OBSERVED CAPE VALUES OF 3500 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -7.3.
WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UP TO ABOUT 550MB.
ABOVE 550MB...WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST WHICH HELPED TO
CARRY THE BALLOON OVER TO ABOUT KILLIAN WHERE IT BURST AT A HEIGHT
OF ALMOST 106900 FEET. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 38 KNOTS /44 MPH/ WAS MEASURED
AT A HEIGHT OF 46324 FEET.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GEORGIA-FLORIDA STATE LINE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
KANSAS. UPPER RIDGING IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...WITH EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW CARRYING AN IMPULSE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IMPULSE HAS
TRIGGERED WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIKELY TO BE A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THEY HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LAND. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AT 3 AM WITH DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE
TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...

AT THIS POINT...SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO FORECAST POPS. THIS WOULD PLACE RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT ABOVE MAV
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS MET
GUIDANCE. THIS IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING FOR RAIN
CHANCES FROM THE ECMWF. AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE...AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL BUMP
CHANCES UP TO LOW END LIKELY FOR SOME OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.
THIS FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. A FEW OF THE STORMS
TUESDAY COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...BUT WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR
SEVERE WEATHER BY SPC AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. 35

LONG TERM...

STILL QUITE MIXED SIGNALS ABOUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTHWARD COLD
FRONT WILL GET AT MIDWEEK BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. CURRENT WIND FORECAST HAS THE FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
BUT NEVER REALLY CLEARING THE COAST. WITH BOUNDARY REMAINING IN
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
EACH DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. A LITTLE LOWER POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. 35

AVIATION...

MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING.  FOG WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT AT KBTR...KMCB...KHUM...KHDC...AND KASD. AT WORST...SOME
MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS FOG WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER
14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z...AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WORDING TO REFLECT THIS RISK.  HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 10Z.  32

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL DOMINATE THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
RESPONSE TO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO A MORE WESTERN COMPONENT AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.  THIS INCREASE IN WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS FROM AROUND 1 FOOT TO 2
TO 3 FEET BY TUESDAY.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  73  91  73 /  30  20  40  20
BTR  94  74  93  75 /  30  20  40  20
ASD  92  75  91  76 /  30  20  40  20
MSY  92  76  90  77 /  40  20  40  20
GPT  90  76  89  78 /  30  20  50  20
PQL  91  74  90  75 /  30  20  50  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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