Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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260
FXUS64 KLIX 060853
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...
THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CWA FROM THE WEST TODAY AS THE TROUGH
EJECTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY FOR THE
UPPER HIGH TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A DRY FORECAST WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. INCREASING
500MB HEIGHTS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO MODERATE. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RISE FROM UPPER 70S TODAY TO LOW/MID 80S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TOOK A COMBINATION OF BLENDED MODELS AND MEX FOR FORECAST
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND...CROSSING THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE WEAKENING
WHILE IT DOES SO AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. IN THIS WEAKENED STATE IT WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
COVERAGE DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE PARTICULARLY HIGH...20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE...WITH A GRADIENT OF LOWER POPS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER
TO THE RIDGE AND HIGHER ON NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOSER TO ZONAL UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

THE PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS WILL LIKELY COME TO END BY THIS
AFTERNOON. BENIGN CONDITIONS THEN SET IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
NECESSARY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE EASING.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
 TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  50  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  79  53  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  78  51  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  78  59  81  63 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  80  54  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  77  49  81  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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