Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 300852
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PRETTY UNSETTLED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A RATHER POTENT MCS WITH
VIGOROUS MCV APPROACHING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX THIS
MORNING WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FORMING ON CONVERGENT STREAKS
AND ENHANCED BY THE GULF BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
WOULD SUGGEST THE IMPETUS OF THE NORTH TEXAS COMPLEX WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE
ECMWF SHOWS LIKEWISE BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. BOTH ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY FOR MORE STORMINESS
WITH LOWER LCL AND TRIGGER TEMPERATURE UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AFTER SOME
RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED...A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED PATTERN FOR JUNE AND LATE INITIATION THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE CASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING TAKES HOLD IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A LARGE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST GULF /GFS/ OR LOWER
SOUTHEAST STATES /ECMWF/. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A
HIGHER RISK FOR DOWNBURST CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE
EXTENDED PORTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST DECK SHOULD BE IN RIGHT AROUND DARK AND SHOULD BE AROUND 1500
TO 2000FT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS A LITTLE HIGHER INLAND TO ABOUT
3000FT. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE FROM 200 TO 500 PREVAILING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND WILL
HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AT LEAST 1SM FOR ALL INLAND
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  67  83  66 /  50  50  60  40
BTR  87  69  85  67 /  50  40  60  50
ASD  86  70  85  68 /  50  30  50  50
MSY  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  60  50
GPT  85  71  84  70 /  30  20  40  50
PQL  86  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
17/TE



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