Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 202301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Will continue to carry thunderstorms at all but KMAF as showers and
thunderstorms continue along and west of an axis from Hobbs to Fort
Stockton this evening.  Expect VFR ceilings to lower to MVFR later
tonight, and possibly dip to IFR by 21/12Z at most terminals.  In
addition, fog could lower visibility to at least MVFR levels by
21/12Z at most TAF sites.  It appears MVFR ceilings may hang around
for much of the day Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans
Pecos. Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, and local heavy rain is possible. Mid
level theta-e ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this
evening best PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However
there`s a substantial amount of TCU developing across the area
currently, including the PB and in the near term there is an
increasing chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be
possible just e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv
trof/s come out. The upper low will be weakening/filling as it
slowly moves e Tue. This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs
farther e, including across the PB. Model consensus including HPC
QPF is again supporting best PoPs to be to the w extending from
the Davis Mtns into the wrn PB, possibly central PB. Current grids
reflect this pretty well and will make only minor adjustments.
Finally Wed this slow moving trof axis will be farther e into the
PB and this actually may be the day with the best chance of rain
with NAM12 bringing out a well defined maxima of lift in mid
levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40% and will opt to
increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern transitions to
ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures will return.
A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus cooler, but
moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  70  54  71  /  20  30  40  60
BIG SPRING TX              59  74  56  71  /  20  20  20  50
CARLSBAD NM                57  70  57  75  /  50  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  64  73  61  74  /  50  40  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  71  57  74  /  40  60  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  66  51  69  /  50  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   56  70  53  67  /  30  40  40  60
MARFA TX                   54  68  50  72  /  50  60  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  73  54  72  /  20  40  40  60
ODESSA TX                  58  72  55  73  /  30  40  40  60
WINK TX                    62  73  59  77  /  40  50  40  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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