Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 141126
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
526 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds
will increase out of the northeast by 15-18Z, particularly at
MAF/INK/HOB where gusts to around 20-25kt will be possible. Any
gusts will diminish this evening, with speeds expected to remain
under 12kt overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another cold front currently moving through the region will little
fanfare will keep temperatures a little below normal today and
Friday, and near normal Saturday.  Meanwhile, an upper trough will
dig south over the Four Corners region today, then drop more
south/southwestward into a former cutoff low over the Mexican State
of Sonora tonight.  The current crop of progs are dropping this
feature a little more quickly southwestward than yesterday, which
will limit the opportunity for precipitation over Southwest Texas.
Will still keep a slight chance of rain, perhaps mixed with snow,
there tonight as the atmospheric temperature profile has changed
somewhat due to the different proximity of the upper feature.  Since
surface temperatures are marginal, including in the mountains, will
make a mention of light rain/snow mix with little to no accumulation
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Another shortwave trough will dig southward along the west Coast
Friday night/Saturday in tandem with a stronger shortwave trough
over the Great Basin.  This will promote the cutoff low over
Mexico`s ejection over the region Saturday.  Some progs are
indicating light rain over the Permian Basin Saturday, but the upper
system is weakening, and there is a lot of dry air to overcome in
the lower levels of the atmosphere, so will keep only a low mention
over southern reaches of the forecast area.  A lee surface trough
will strengthen over the southern U.S. Plains and result in a warmup
over the region Sunday. Solutions for the upper pattern begin to
diverge Saturday and after. Some form a cutoff low well off the
southern Baja Peninsula by Sunday/Sunday night, and sweep an upper
trough eastward to the north of the region.  Others keep the upper
energy consolidated and bring an upper trough over Mexico and the
forecast area Sunday night/ Monday.  For now, will tend the forecast
toward the majority of deterministic and ensemble forecasts, that
is, a mainly dry forecast and near to slightly above temperatures
for Monday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  30  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  28  54  28 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         62  38  57  35 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  31  54  33 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 48  29  46  29 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          52  25  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          63  31  47  24 /  10  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           55  29  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         55  28  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  28  55  29 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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