Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 232316
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
516 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southwest winds occasionally gusting in
the afternoon can be expected this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge spanning the central CONUS,
resulting in mostly sunny skies and an unseasonably warm day across
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as breezy downslope warming
pumps afternoon temps into the 70s at many locations.  KMAF has
reached 74F so far, making it feel more like late March than late
January.  Unfortunately, to the west, a couple of troughs are
muscling their way east, and will continue shunting the ridge east,
w/zonal flow aloft transitioning to SW overnight.  An upper trough
currently off the OR/CA coast is forecast to merge w/another just to
its east and arrive over SD/NE in around 24 hours.  Leeside
troughing on the Front Range ahead of this feature will increase SW
flow overnight, setting things up for a another wind event Tuesday.
The NAM develops a decent mtn wave signature overnight into Tuesday,
when H7 height gradients tighten up to ~ 60m/150nm over the western
mtns by 18Z.  Both NAM and GFS buffer soundings for KGDP mix out to
around 750mb at that time, where westerly 45-50kt winds are
forecast. These wind s will translate south into the Big Bend area,
as well.  Thus, we`ll issue high wind warnings for the mountains out
west beginning 06z Tue and continuing thru 00Z Wed, and advisories
for adjacent plains.  These may need to be extended beyond 00Z Wed,
but for clarity or products, we`ll address this in later shifts.

W/the strong winds expected Tuesday come fire wx concerns.  Attm,
w/the arrival of the Pac front, RH looks to remain out of critical
territory except along the Rio Grande, where Fire Danger is high and
thus red flag conditions will be possible.  ERCs remain below
normal, but are on the upswing.  If nothing else, Tuesday looks like
a candidate for a Fire Danger Statement.

As noted above, unfortunately a Pac front will arrive overnight and
Tuesday, taking temps Tuesday afternoon down around 10 degrees from
today, and below-normal Wednesday and Thursday.  Another front
arrives Friday to keep temps below normal, followed by an upper
trough Saturday.  If it was going to rain this forecast, it would be
Saturday but, attm, not enough moisture looks to be in place to
justify POPs except in the extreme lwr Trans Pecos.  Otherwise,
temps poke back above-normal Monday as an upper trough begins
developing off the Baja Coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  67  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       44  60  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         46  76  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  49  68  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  49  26  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  58  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  62  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  65  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         44  63  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           42  62  32  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday for
     Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 6 PM
     CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for Loving.

     Wind Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 6 PM CST
     /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/10



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