Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 180858
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
358 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. a
few cu will be possible invof KCNM this afternoon. Otherwise, a
few mid/hi clouds creep in near the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:45 AM CDT Wednesday...both IR and WV imagery
are showing high/mid clouds moving into the western portions of
the CWA ahead of a weak southern stream shortwave.

After a warm and dry day a series of weak southern stream
shortwaves will move across the Southern Plains and Northern
Mexico. This will help draw moisture north out of Mexico...and
combined with orographics and steep lapse rates will lead to
slight chance of thunderstorms over the Guadalupe Mtns tonight and
Thursday. With increased cloud cover temps will cool to near
normal on Thursday. The chc/slight chc of thunderstorms spreads
east across the PB Thursday night as the nocturnal LLJ ramps up.

A stronger trof will move from the Pacific NW/Northern CA into the
Plains on Saturday. The far eastern portions of the CWA could see
some thunderstorms...but the main show will be to the north and
east of the CWA in the area of best dynamics...instability... and
moisture. Saturday will feature temps 10-15 degrees above normal
with a low level thermal ridge just to the west of the CWA. As
the trof progresses east a cold front will clip the CWA on Sunday
with dry weather and temps a little below normal. Even though
medium range models are not in agreement on Sunday with the
GFS/GEM models cutting off a low in the Arklatex area and the
ECMWF more progressive with the trof...either solution will have
little bearing on the sensible weather for the CWA.

Next week will be dry with above normal temperatures as a ridge
builds in the Western US in response to a deep trof in the
east...leading to a dry WNW flow aloft.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     84  56  78  62 /   0   0   0  20
Carlsbad                       86  54  81  57 /   0  10  20  40
Dryden                         83  56  80  63 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton                  87  58  83  62 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 80  57  77  59 /   0  20  20  40
Hobbs                          82  51  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          83  51  81  54 /   0   0  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           84  56  77  61 /   0   0   0  20
Odessa                         84  56  77  61 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           87  55  80  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/33/44



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