Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 192034
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
334 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...Other than a gradual slight
increase in boundary layer moisture, a very dry airmass remains in
place over the region today and model soundings indicate
essentially no change through Friday. So overall, a persistence
forecast is the way to go for the near term period. The light to
occasionally moderate northeast to east surface wind flow will
persist tonight and Friday, as surface high pressure continues to
ridge into the forecast area from the north and east. This surface
pattern has helped dewpoints rebound into the lower 60s in many
locations over the southern portion of the forecast area, although
they remain in the middle 50s over much of the northern interior
counties. With the slightly increased low level moisture, just as
was the case this morning, expect some patchy light fog and low
cloud development for a brief time late tonight, mainly over the
interior. Otherwise clear to mostly clear skies are expected
through the period. Aloft, upper ridge axis will migrate east
across our forecast area tonight, and then be to the east of the
forecast area by early Friday afternoon. As this occurs, a deeper
return flow off the Gulf will gradually develop by late Friday,
but this will primarily influence the short and long term forecast
periods, and not have any appreciable effect on near term period.
Zero rain chance in the near term, so primarily just a
temperature forecast. Lows tonight generally ranging from the
lower 50s inland to the upper 50s and lower 60s near the coast. A
few normally cooler locations over far northern interior portions
of the forecast area could briefly dip into the upper 40s toward
daybreak Friday. High temps on Friday climbing into the lower 80s
across the entire region. 12/DS

.SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...To begin the
short term, deep layer ridge is progged to be positioned over the
southeast, while lower geo-potential heights move into the Plains.
The ridge makes steady eastward progress off the southeast US
coast by Sunday while Plains high level trof begins to sharpen as
it approaches the Lower MS River Valley by Sunday night. With the
sharpening and steady eastward progression of the long-wave trof,
attendant surface cold front moves eastward into the deep south
Sunday night. Deep layer moisture begins to slowly modify over
the course of the weekend, becoming highest on Sunday with PWAT`s
lifting to at or above 1.8 inches as best dynamics begin to
approach from the west. With that also comes a marked increase in
chances of showers and storms on Sunday, becoming likely over the
western zones Sunday afternoon and likely area-wide Sunday night.
The potential of strong storms exists mainly Sunday and Sunday
night with the eastward passage of the larger scale ascent and
some increase in low level winds. As far as severe weather
potential, despite modest daytime instability, an assessment of
H85 low level south to southwest wind fields generally less than
30 kts per latest global spectral models and ensembles would
suggest that the threat of severe weather is low at this time.
This may change with the onset of new data on subsequent shifts.

Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday in the lower half of the 80s.
Overnight lows from 56 to 61 interior Friday night become more
mild Saturday and Sunday nights ranging from the mid/upper 60s
interior. 68 to 73 coast. /10

.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...A series of cold fronts
move across the central Gulf coast next week. As southern stream
mid level system ejects eastward over the deep south on Monday, the
first front makes passage late Monday morning. Chances of showers
remain high along with a few embedded storms. Rain chances lower
Monday night. A more pronounced deep layer trof digs southward
into the deep south late Tuesday bringing a reinforcing, dry,
secondary cold frontal passage through the area. It is this
boundary that brings much lower deep layer thicknesses and cold
air advective processes in its wake Wednesday morning where lows
look to dip into the mid 40s over the interior and mid 50s coast.
Latest gridded high temperatures for Wednesday look to come in
some 5 to 10 degrees below climatology in the mid 60s interior to
near 70 coast. Wednesday night lows could lower into the 40s all
the way down to I-10, while beach areas closer to 50. Highs on
Thursday 67 to 71 area-wide. /10

&&

.MARINE...A strong surface ridge of high pressure will continue to
stretch from the Mid Atlantic region to the southeastern states
and into the north central Gulf of Mexico through Saturday night,
with a moderate to occasionally strong northeast to east wind flow
persisting through Saturday night. Flow will then become more
southeasterly on Sunday, then shift from southwest to northwest
Monday through Tuesday as a cold front moves east across the
marine area. Exercise Caution winds and seas (15 to 20 knots and
up to 6 feet) expected through most of the period, but will have
to monitor trends for possible Small Craft Advisory conditions.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast by
Saturday and Sunday, becoming more numerous Sunday night into
Monday with the passage of the aforementioned front, before ending
with the passage of the front late Monday into Tuesday. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      59  83  65  83 /   0   0  10  20
Pensacola   63  82  68  81 /   0   0  10  10
Destin      65  83  69  82 /   0   0  10  10
Evergreen   53  82  59  84 /   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  52  81  59  82 /   0   0   0  10
Camden      51  81  59  83 /   0   0   0  10
Crestview   56  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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