Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 020955
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD CONTINUES TO RIDGE
INTO THE LOCAL FCST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
BE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN VERY SIMILAR
IN THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THE FRONTAL POSITION PROGGED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EJECTED
FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES TODAY...MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL FCST AREA TODAY. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
2.15 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER FORCING
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS WEAKEN SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS EVENING AND ALONG WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF DECREASE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS OF ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THOUGH...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BEGIN TO DRASTICALLY INCREASE
AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WILL INCREASE TO GOOD CHANCE AND LIKELY SHOWERS AND STORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. BOTH MAX
AND MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S (ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER 80S IN A FEW LOCATIONS
OVER INTERIOR ZONES AND LOWER 80S AT SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST). LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TO THE MIDDLE 70S AT THE COAST 12/DS

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS GETS PUSHED QUICKLY EASTWARD BY MORE ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE PROCESS). THIS PUSHES A SURFACE FRONT
QUICKLY EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...ESPECIALLY OVER TENN/SC AND
POINTS NORTH. FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...THIS MEANS THAT THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITHT HE STRONGEST PUSH
(READ BETTER DYNAMICS) BEING WELL NORTH OF THE FA...AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY ADDED SUPPORT TO THE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD/WITH THE FRONT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT WITH LIMITED WIND SHEAR...AM
NOT EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS SELL BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY MORN.

SATURDAY...AS THE ENERGY IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW IS JOINED BY
MORE ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND NEAR IT...THE NORTHERLY PUSH BRINGS MORE
OF THE COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE FA. THIS KEEPS TEMPS FOR THE DAY WELL
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE MORE LOBES OF ENERGY SWIRL AROUND THE UPPER LOW NOW
SWIRLING AROUND JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL AIRMASS OVER...THEN EAST OF THE FA. AM
EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP EVEN FURTHER BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MOST
OF THE FA SEEING TEMPS IN THE 40S. AT THIS POINT...TEMPS DIPPING TO
NEAR RECORD LEVELS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

 RECORD:

MOBILE    44 (2010)
PENSACOLA 49 (1987)

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MORE ENERGY SWIRLS INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE FA...ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS TO THE FA. AS THIS PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS
TOWARDS THE FA...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A QUICK ROUND OF SHRA
MOVING OVER THE FA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
DYNAMICS...DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND TAKING IT NORTHEAST...WHILST THE GFS IS ADVERTISING MORE OF AN
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS EVENT. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT THE
ECMWF HAS ADVERTISED THIS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING...SO AM TENDING TO
DISCOUNT IT FOR NOW AND LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THE FORECAST THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS BY TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ALSO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AXIS OF THE
EASTERN TROUGH SWINGS EAST OF THE FA...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD NORTH FROM OVER THE GULF OF MEX. THIS ALLOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND KEEP THE FA
UNDER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
02/12Z ISSUANCE...WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM BUT
WILL MONITOR FOR AMENDMENTS IF NEEDED DUE TO LOWER CIGS/FOG THROUGH
ABOUT 13Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/FEW TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE OVERNIGHT. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA TODAY WILL DRIFT EAST OFF THE US ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. CURRENT LIGHT FLOW BECOMES MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA...THEN STRONG
OFFSHORE (NORTHWEST TO NORTH) EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE
INCREASED WINDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH BUILDING SEAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      85  73  85  56  73 /  50  50  70  20  00
PENSACOLA   85  75  86  60  74 /  40  50  70  40  00
DESTIN      82  76  85  65  74 /  30  40  70  50  00
EVERGREEN   87  71  85  52  71 /  40  50  70  20  00
WAYNESBORO  88  71  85  49  71 /  50  60  70  10  00
CAMDEN      88  71  85  49  70 /  40  60  70  20  00
CRESTVIEW   87  72  85  57  73 /  30  50  70  40  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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