Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 261815

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
115 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


18Z issuance...VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the
next 24 hours. Light north to northeast winds generally prevail,
except near the immediate coast where a weak seabreeze could
bring a period of light southerly winds this afternoon.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...The base of a large upper
trough over the the central and eastern conus will remain over the
region, with primarily zonal flow aloft. A surface front over the
northern gulf will continue moving south over the central gulf,
allowing a drier airmass to filter into the region from the north
through the near term. Precipitable water values will drop to
between 1.0 and 1.5 inches this morning and remain in this range
through tonight. A mix of sun and clouds will occur, but skies will
be mostly clear over the next 24 hours.

High temperatures today will range from 85 to 90 degrees. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s inland areas,
with upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast. /22

SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...Models show a
bit of a weakness in mid level height field over the area as
northwesterly flow aloft on the back side of the departing east
coast upper trough becomes more zonal with time. Surface high
pressure over the Midwest will begin to push a weakening surface
trough offshore Tuesday allowing low level winds to veer from
northeasterly to the southeast and south. Drier air, relative to
late June climatological norms, will still be around on Tuesday
with precipitable water values generally in the 1.2 to 1.7 inch
range with lesser values inland and to the west and higher
readings near the coast. Will keep a very slight chance of showers
near the coast on Tuesday associated with mesoscale lift from the
sea breeze. Slightly greater convective chances expected for
Wednesday as deep layer moisture begins to increase but lift will
largely be limited to Gulf/bay breezes advancing inland during the
afternoon. Temperatures will be warm Tuesday with upper 80s to
low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s at the coast. A degree or two
cooler Wednesday to account for greater storm chances and clouds.

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Upper level zonal flow will
continue into the long term with the aforementioned weakness in the
height field migrating to the west towards Texas and northern
Mexico over the weekend. Surface ridge over the southwest Atlantic
will allow for continued southerly low level flow across the area
and precipitable water values will increase into the 1.8-2.2 inch
range. Thursday and Friday will have slightly better chances for
rain vs earlier in the week with greater coverage expected near
the coast and associated mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures will
continue near or slightly below seasonal levels Thursday and
Friday with mid to upper 80s across the region. Lows will
generally be in the low 70s across inland areas with mid to upper
70s at night along the coast.

Increasing subsidence with the loss of the mid level height
weakness will tend to lower convective coverage a bit Saturday
and Sunday but continued low level southerly flow and associated
moisture feed off the Gulf will allow for some scattered
thunderstorms over the weekend. Temperatures will be warm
considering larger scale subsidence across the region. Highs will
generally be in the upper 80s to near 90 inland with mid 80s at
the coast. Low temperatures will continue to be quite balmy with
low 70s for most with mid to upper 70s at the beaches. 05/RR

MARINE...A surface front will continue moving south over the
northern and central gulf through this morning. In wake of the
front, a moderate offshore flow is expected each night through early
Tuesday. A light to moderate southerly wind flow will become better
developed late Tuesday into Wednesday as a broad surface ridge of
high pressure shifts east to the eastern seaboard and western
Atlantic through midweek. /22




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