Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 011046
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
546 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...GOING THROUGH THE RIP CURRENT RISK...WITH SWELL HEIGHTS OF
3 TO 4 FEET AND A PERIOD OF 6 TO 7 SECONDS OVER RIDING A TODAY RANGE
OF LESS THAN A FOOT...CURRENT PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EVEN WITH A FRONT
GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THE HIGH RISK BEING
EXPANDED FURTHER.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS ENERGY WORKS WITH A COLD POOL SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI SET UP FROM YESTERDAY`S RAIN (08Z TEMPS AT KMOB
71/71...63/61 AT KHBG) TO CREATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED SHRA/TSRA
INITIALLY TODAY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE
COLD POOL ERODING...GENERALLY BY 18Z...WITH MORE SURFACE BASED
WEATHER THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
FA...CLOSER TO THE PATH OF THE PASSING ENERGY. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN
SEE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT...WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN COOLING NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST EXPECTED. TONIGHT...WITH THE ENERGY
MOVING OFF...QUESTION WILL BE ANY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AM EXPECTING
..AND THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING...WARM MOIST INFLUX CONTINUES...AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS
CONTINUING...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AT THE CHANCE OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIND
SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED. WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ORGANIZED
SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED. /16

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
WEDGED BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND AN UPPER TROUGH PRESSING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES FROM THE NORTH. MEANWHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GENERAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TUESDAY...AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL RANGE FROM ONE-
HALF TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 6OS INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 5OS INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. /22

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S AND HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO LEVELS WITH
MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. /13

MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW FOLLOWS...LASTING INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. /16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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