Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 282341 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
641 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
29.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SATELLITE SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE THICKER
PORTION OF THESE CLOUDS WAS POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS WITH BASES OF 3000-3500 FT
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY ON IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE
MIDSOUTH/NORTHERN MS/AL IS RESULTING IN A BAND OF EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP THAT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PLACES SUCH AS BUTLER...THOMASVILLE...AND
CAMDEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE MID CLOUD DECK AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALSO MOVING EAST. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BAND
OF SIGNIFICANT 850 MB MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW DEWPOINTS SUPPORT
ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT FOR LATE MARCH...JUST HOW COLD LOWS GET WILL
DEPEND ON HOW EXPANSIVE THE STRATUS BECOMES. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. IF A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MATERIALIZES...THAN LOWS WILL LIKELY BE EVEN
COLDER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROF ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON
MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THEN
MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF LESSER SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF MAINTAINS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF...BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE STALLING...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR SEASONABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 0.85 INCHES SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH SIMILAR
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
FOR THE INTERIOR PORTION MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AS MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE TEXAS SHORTWAVE TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
UPPER TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES THEN
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...THEN A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES...PASSES NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES ON
SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF
APPROACHES THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND HAVE TENTATIVELY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND AS GFS ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW...BUT EXPECT HIGHER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
/29

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS BECOMES
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
WEST INTO EASTERN GULF. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  68  58  80  59 /  00  00  05  30  20
PENSACOLA   44  66  58  79  62 /  00  00  05  30  20
DESTIN      47  65  58  75  63 /  00  00  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   37  69  51  79  55 /  00  00  05  50  20
WAYNESBORO  40  70  55  80  55 /  05  00  10  40  20
CAMDEN      37  67  54  76  54 /  05  00  10  60  10
CRESTVIEW   37  69  50  80  56 /  00  00  05  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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