Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 061058
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
458 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...[TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A LOOK AT UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW A
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WITH A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MAINTAINING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEAST. COLD FRONT
HAS SURGED SOUTHWARD TO DEEP INTO THE GULF THIS MORNING. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW EARLY AM TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
20S ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-65 WITH NUMBERS IN THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 30S BEING CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST. FREEZE WARNINGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES
SHOW STRONG NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT THIS MORNING.
A PERCENTAGE OF THIS AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BRISK
CONDITIONS ON THE MORNING WORK AND SCHOOL COMMUTE WITH WIND CHILLS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 20S. ALTHOUGH A COLD START TO THE
DAY...CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THIN ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW ENOUGH SUN
FOR DAILY HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS AND DRY
AIR...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO SINK TO 23 TO 28 FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-65...LOWER 30S TO I-10 AND
MID/UPPER 30S BEACH AREAS. /10

.LONG TERM...[SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
FOR PLENTY OF BLUE SKY THIS WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TRENDING UPWARD TOWARD TYPICAL NORMS. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THOUGH WILL STILL DROP SHARPLY INTO THE UPPER
30S...LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 30S FURTHER INLAND UNDER
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND
FLOW...THOUGH COULD BE BREEZY NEAR THE COAST. SKIES BEGIN TO CLOUD UP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...HTS
FALL AND WINDS ALOFT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES PEAK NEAR 70
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FALLING BY MORNING AS MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE...MINOR
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL TRIGGER OCNL EMBEDDED SHOWERS
BUT NO TSTMS EXPECTED. CLOUDY...WET PATTERN EXPECTED THEN TO REMAIN
WITH US THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. /08 JW


&&

.AVIATION...06.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING FROM 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS FROM 18 TO 23 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 06.15Z...SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 13 KNOTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED HIGH BASE CIGS FORECAST WITH VSBY OK. /10


&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO
SHOW A STRONG OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WITH WINDS AND GUSTS MEETING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO NOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CRITERIA GOING THESE
AREAS...BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS
TREND LOWER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC TODAY AND SATURDAY...WEAKENING BY SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EASES NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
MONDAY AND BRINGS A RETURN TO WET WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY...WEAKENS
INTO THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED SEAS TODAY TO SHOW A SUBSIDING TREND INTO
THE WEEKEND. /10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  29  63  38  65 /  00  00  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   55  36  65  41  68 /  00  00  05  05  10
DESTIN      53  41  60  51  64 /  00  00  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   54  26  66  35  70 /  00  00  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  51  23  66  32  67 /  00  00  05  10  20
CAMDEN      52  25  66  35  70 /  00  00  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   56  30  66  39  70 /  00  00  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>064.

FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ001>003.

MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$


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