Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 251808 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
108 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Average confidence in the short term due to so-so model agreement
with two systems affecting the area.

A slow moving line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
shift slowly eastward today as a storm system over the southern
plains approaches the region. With the exception of the NAM12, the
GFS/HRRR/RAP13 are showing a dry slot being pulled into the western
sections of our CWA by late morning. As a result, POPs should slowly
diminish from west to east this afternoon but not go away completely
due to the proximity of the surface/upper lows combined with wrap-
around moisture pinching off the dry slot.

As the system slowly meanders off to the north and east, POPs will
gradually taper off from west to east through Sunday. After a brief
respite Sunday evening, precipitation chances begin to make their
way back into the western sections of our CWA late Sunday night as
the next storm system emerges from the southern plains. Showers
and/or thunderstorms associated with this system can be expected to
continue for most of the area through Monday night.

Temperatures will generally be 10 to 15 degrees above normal through
the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

A few showers may linger in our eastern and southern counties
Tuesday morning, but a break in the wet weather is expected Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night as a weak upper level ridge moves over
the PAH forecast area.

As we get into Wednesday, models differ greatly on the timing/track
of our next low pressure system.  GFS takes the surface low into
eastern Arkansas by 12z Thursday, while the ECMWF still has it over
Oklahoma at that time, and the Canadian has it over Nebraska.
Despite these differences, all 3 try to generate a little
precipitation in our region during the day Wednesday, and went with
slight to low chance pops for showers.  The faster GFS spreads more
significant precipitation across the entire PAH forecast area
Wednesday night, while the ECMWF and Canadian have us covered by 18z
Thursday.  Went with likely pops in out far west counties Wednesday
evening, with high chance to likely pops spreading across our entire
region by Thursday morning.  Included slight chances of thunder in
our southern counties Wednesday night, and across all of our
counties on Thursday, but this will be dependent on the actual track
of the low.  Continued with shower chances into Thursday night, with
gradually decreasing chances from west to east late Thursday night
into Friday, but again, how quickly the showers move out will be
dependent on the timing of the low as it moves east of our region.

Temperatures will remain very mild through the extended, with
readings from around 5 degrees to around 10 degrees above seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Cigs, with the exception of mainly southeastern MO for part of the
afternoon, are expected to be mainly VFR through the 18Z TAF period.
Scattered to widely scattered showers will continue to move
northward today and tonight ahead of a surface wind shift which
should occur after sunrise Sunday. While pcpn is expected to end in
the west before the night is over, it may linger in parts of
southwestern IN and the Pennyrile region of KY after sunrise as the
parent low pressure system pulls away toward the northeast.
Lightning is possible today, but not likely at any one terminal.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DB


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