Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 300532 AAB

National Weather Service Paducah KY
1132 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Issued at 1132 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Light rains are spreading back northeast across much of the area.
Considering regional radar trends and water vapor imagery, it will
likely be well into the evening hours before it comes to an end
from west to east. The latest HRRR suggests a rapid drying trend
from west to east from 00Z-03Z. As winds drop off into the
overnight hours, drizzle and fog are likely to develop, so added
in areas of drizzle to most of the region.

A weak warm front will try to move through the region Monday, but
it will not be significant enough to even generate a few breaks
in the low overcast. The warm frontal passage is associated with a
rather intense storm system lifting northeast through the
northern Plains/upper Midwest.

The 12Z models continue to be all over the place with QPF Monday
and Monday night. Odds are that the moisture we have been fighting
all weekend will be lifted back across west Kentucky, at the
least, Monday afternoon and night. The models hint at shower
development over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois mainly
on the trailing cold front Monday night, so will keep at least a
chance PoP throughout the region, but likely to categorical PoPs
will been posted in the southeast.

Some rain may linger in the far east/southeast into Tuesday morning,
but it still appears that we will finally dry out Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday night.

Will stay close to consensus for highs and lows through the

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

High confidence in the extended.

Models are in good agreement with high pressure setting up over the
heartland and dominating the weather pattern. So high and dry will
be the ruling weather factor for the extended. We will start out
slightly below normal for temperatures but as the axis of the surface
high drifts east a southerly flow will resume and bring us slightly
above normal temperatures for the rest of the weekend. The next
chance of rain will arrive day eight or nine as a an upper low
impacts the area early next week. Even then the low will originate
out of the southwest with no significant cold air foreseen in its


Issued at 1132 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

With a quasi-stationary system hung up across the region coupled
with deep moisture, LIFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will continue at all
sites through the period. Periods of rain and/or drizzle are
possible through 00Z. Through 00Z, winds will generally continue
out of the north northeast AOB 10 knots, then swing around to the
east southeast to southeast AOB 5 knots.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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