


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
492 FXUS61 KRNK 151542 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1142 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern will remain very warm and muggy with a daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. Greatest concentration of storms today is expected along and east of the Blue Ridge where opportunity for localized flooding is possible due to the storms being very rain efficient. Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches an hour are possible, and this may lead to flooding if a storm lingers over an area for even a short amount of time. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with potential for localized very heavy rain this afternoon and evening. 2) A Flood Watch is in effect from 2PM-Midnight for counties mainly east of the Blue Ridge. No updates to the forecast for this morning. Cumulus field is gradually becoming more widespread, but expecting a later onset of convective activity compared to yesterday. No returns apparent on radar yet. From the previous discussion... A weak shortwave which led to yesterday`s thunderstorm activity still lingers aloft. Storms congealed into an MCS last night and the outflow boundary from this mesoscale system is aligned e-w near the VA/NC border. As CAPE increases from daytime heating expect renewed activity along both the boundary and the higher mountain terrain, particularly the Blue Ridge. Pattern recognition seems to point at the same overall initiation trend where the storms develop VCNTY of ridge line where orographics provide the initial lift...the storms then drifting east with the mean wind. Winds aloft are very light, less than 10 mph, so storms will likely follow the existing mesoscale boundary or follow their own induced downdraft induced boundaries. Either way, expect movement to be in slow motion and with PWATs near 2 inches, the storms will be very rain efficient. Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches an hour are possible, and this may lead to flooding if a storm lingers over an area for even a short amount of time. That said, have issued a flood watch for flash flooding, with primary focus on the counties mainly east of Blue Ridge. Temperatures today and tonight will be somewhat similar to yesterday. MaxT will depend a lot on whether you get a thunderstorm over your area prior to peak heating. General forecast is for highs in the upper 80s to around 90, but could foresee some home towns getting back into the lower 90s again, if storm initiation holds off until later in the afternoon. As for night time conditions, same ol same ol, with muggy conditions remaining due to the high atmospheric moisture content. This will also keep temperatures elevated with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. 2) Conditions will stay warm and humid throughout the remainder of this work week. A relentless stretch of active weather should linger through the rest of the work week as a baroclinic zone remains stalled to the north. Warm and humid conditions will continue across the Appalachian Mountains with high temperatures varying from the lower 80s to the lower 90s and dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. This combination of heat and moisture along with orographical lift should spark showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Because of the moist air mass, any of the stronger storms may cause locally heavy rainfall and notable lightning. Any flooding threat from training of storms or any severe threat due to wet microbursts will be monitored through the rest of the week. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is moderate for chances of showers and thunderstorms to continue every afternoon. 2) Little change in the air mass is anticipated during the weekend and into early next week. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the ongoing stretch of active weather due to warm and humid conditions should persist through the weekend and into early next week. A baroclinic zone still appears to remain stuck to the north for the foreseeable future, which will keep the Appalachian Mountains firmly in the warm sector. Hardly any appreciable changes in the air mass are anticipated in the models, so the daily threat of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue as heat and moisture combines with orographical lift. Locally heavy rainfall from any of the stronger storms will remain a threat due to the atmosphere staying moist. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday... With ample moisture in the atmosphere, expect patchy fog and stratus early this morning, especially in areas that received rain yesterday. Varied amounts of fog/stratus have been included in the TAFs for this morning. Fog will start to dissipate after 13Z or so for most expecting a transition back to VFR between 13-15Z. Similar to Monday, expecting cloud buildups early afternoon with the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by mid afternoon...18Z and beyond with greatest coverage between 20-24Z. Overall forecast confidence is high, but low in specific locations of thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Storms tend to develop over the higher terrain first then drift east with the mean wind. Mean winds today are less than 10 mph, so storms that develop will be slow movers. Not expecting anything organized, so look for random cells which may cluster or merge together into clusters of storms as outflow boundaries come together late in the afternoon. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The overall pattern remains stagnant for the remainder of this week with a warm and humid air mass providing daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms and an overnight potential for patchy fog. In general, conditions expected to be VFR for most of this week with the exceptions being the aforementioned afternoon storms and overnight fog which will result in tempo sub-vfr conditions. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for NCZ003>006-019-020. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM/VFJ SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...PM