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000
FXUS61 KRNK 060025
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
725 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS EAST TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF US BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EST THURSDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO DROP ALL REMAINING HEADLINES FOR THE MOMENT GIVEN
TAPERING OF MOST PRECIPITATION TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
DO EXPECT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE OVER NW NORTH
CAROLINA LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL AS AN SPS ELSEWHERE FOR THE
REFREEZING OF WATER/SLUSH OVERNIGHT. MAY ALSO HOIST A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ACROSS A FEW COUNTIES OVER THE NW PENDING LATER OBS. FEW
OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH-RES MODELS AND 12Z NAM DID FAIRLY WELL IN AXIS OF PRECIP THOUGH
DIFFERENCES OCCURRED WITH THERMAL PROFILE IN THIS COMPLEX EVENT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WAS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. AS WE HEAD TO THE EVENING THIS WILL HEAD EAST
OUT OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST
NORTH OF A BEDFORD TO APPOMATTOX/FARMVILLE LINE...WHERE ADDITIONAL 1-
4" COULD OCCUR...HIGHER TOWARD BUCKINGHAM.

THE HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR BANDING SETTING UP
IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY SOUTH TO FRANKLIN COUNTY VA...AND WILL
FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION...BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHERE AND IF
IT SETS UP. MAY GET ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OUT IT.

WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES RUN THEIR
COURSE...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR THE NIGHT...WILL WAIT UNTIL THESE HEADLINES GET CLOSE TO
EXPIRING THEN WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR BLACK ICE IN OUR NC COUNTIES PER AGREEMENT WITH STATE OFFICIALS.

IN ADDITION...LOOK FOR ENOUGH WIND AND VERY COLD AIR TO BRING WIND
CHILLS TO SUB ZERO IN THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF BATH...WEST TO
GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO MORNING OVER SE WV.

SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DISCREPANCIES EXIST FRIDAY IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER WITH NE FLOW. GFS SHOWING LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLING UP ACROSS
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE THE NAM/CMC AND ECMWF WERE
DRIER. WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS FRIDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AREA WIDE...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE...EXPECT
MOST SNOW COVER TO MELT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR MOST OF
OUR REGION...A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL BE OFFERED DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAY CLIP THIS REGION OF AND BRING SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
ACROSS CONUS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
ALL FAIRLY SIMILAR ON HAVING A DISTURBANCE EXIT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN JET AND TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OR OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN DURING THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN MAY REACH ROUTE 460. THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST
WILL ONLY MENTION LOW END CHANCE POPS AS ITS HIGHEST PROBABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY...

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS CONUS. THE TWO STREAMS ARE
PROGGED TO MERGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A FEW HUNDRED MILES
OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL
ALLOW POTENTIALLY FOR INTERACTION FROM BOTH STREAMS. GUIDANCE THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH HOW MUCH OR HOW LITTLE
OUR AREA WOULD BE IMPACTED...AND LIKEWISE WITH THE TIMING OF ANY
POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKERS. THE LATEST ITERATIONS DO SHOW A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING TIMING...BUT NOT BY TRACK. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS OFFER A SOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF TRENDS
THE SYSTEM THE FARTHEST NORTH...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE WHOLE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST
OF OUR REGION...WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION HAS
THE SYSTEM CLIP THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THAT OF THE ECMWF...BUT WITH
TONED DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE
ALONG WITH EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT FAVOR A LOT OF
WINTRY WEATHER. FOR THE MOST PART....RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE WILL BE A SOME POCKETS OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN ON EARLY TUESDAY IN THE NORTH AS LOW LEVEL PROFILE
WARMS EVEN MORE.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE JET ORIENTATION DOES NOT CHANGE A
WHOLE LOT...AND THERE ARE WEAKER SIGNALS WITHIN THE MODELS THAT
ANOTHER...AND WEAKER SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

AFTER ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL TREND MILDER. BY THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM EST THURSDAY...

MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
DEPARTING WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MOST AREAS WILL BE PRECIPITATION
FREE BY 04Z/11PM IN THE WEST...AND 07Z/2AM IN THE EAST. ALSO
EXPECT PATCHY MVFR VSBYS WITH THE EXITING LIGHT PRECIPITAION AND
POTENTIAL LIGHT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ABUNDANT DRY
AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

AS OF 1255 PM EST THURSDAY...

EXTENDED FORECAST...

FRIDAY TO SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH BRIEF MVFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

ONGOING FLOODING IN THE WEST BUT EXPECT RECEDING...WITH RIVERS
GOING UP ALONG THE JAMES AND UPPER ROANOKE...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS COLDER TEMPERATURES SLOW RUNOFF.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/DS/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP