Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 261848
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
248 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to
bring warm and dry weather to the region through Wednesday,
while Hurricane Maria stays just off the east coast. A dry cold
front will move through the Appalachians and mid Atlantic region
on Thursday, with much cooler weather for the end of the
workweek into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...

Synoptic situation remains unchanged and supports quiet weather
with high pressure surface and aloft. The northeasterly flow
around Maria off the coast may be able to squeeze out a light
isolated sprinkle from the southern Blue Ridge into northwest NC
through late this afternoon in a zone of enhanced low level
convergence, but otherwise its shaping up to be a dry forecast
through Wednesday. Low level moisture is also rotating around
Maria and may yield some extra cloud cover for portions of the
piedmont and Southside, but any showers will remain off to our
east. Late night fog west of the Blue Ridge looks like a good
bet once again. Wednesday looks to be just about the last day of
our stretch of much above normal temperatures before a cold
front moves through Thursday.

Lows tonight will generally be in the middle 60s east of the
Blue Ridge, middle 50s/near 60 west with cooler readings in the
valleys. Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 80s east to
low/mid 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

You can expect a trend toward drier and cooler temperatures this
period as  cold front exits to our east early Thursday. Should be a
little breezy behind the front. Ahead of it Wed night, clouds will
increase over the mountains, with limited moisture east. A
shower/sprinkle not of the question in the mountains of SE WV but
appears this front stays dry.

With some breeze Thursday and northwest flow the humidity levels
will start to feel drier. However, the best cool air advection holds
off until Friday as high pressure stretches southeast from the Great
Lakes/Upper Midwest.

Highs Thursday will still run about 5-10 degrees above normal in the
east, but just few degrees above normal in the mountains, ranging
from the lower to mid 80s east, to lower to mid 70s west.

After a last night in the 60s Wed night, low temperatures Thu night
should drop into the mid to upper 40s mountains, to lower to mid 50s
east.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Quiet weather expected this period with short lived trough moving
across early in the period bringing temps to at or just below
normal. As we head into next week a broad 500 mb ridge starts to
spread from the southern Plains, eastward into Virginia/North
Carolina. At the surface high pressure will be wedged south from
Quebec/New England. This should keep us from getting too warm like
the current pattern but still should see mild temperatures by Monday-
Tuesday, but close to normal for early October.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...

The circulation around Maria is pushing some low level moisture
into the far eastern fringes of the region. Most locations will
be unaffected by this, but KDAN may see a period of MVFR cigs
this afternoon and possibly overnight. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions with another round of late night fog/stratus west of
the Blue Ridge. This will create a period of IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys
at KLWB and possibly KBCB and KBLF. The fog/stratus will
dissipate by early to mid morning on Wednesday with VFR
conditions through the end of the valid period.

Winds will generally be light with some low end gusts mainly
from the Blue Ridge eastward.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Maria should exit farther offshore Wednesday night into Thursday
ahead of a cold front that looks to cross the region from the
west during the day. Front appears mainly dry with just a band
of upslope aided low clouds possible behind the front Thursday
before much drier post frontal air swings in on northwest winds
later Thursday into early Friday. Strong high pressure then
follows the boundary with continued VFR outside of added upslope
clouds far west Friday through Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...MBS/SK



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