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000
FXUS61 KRNK 092346
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
746 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY RESULTING IN WARM
AND DRY WEATHER. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...

DRIER AIR IS ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE DRIER AIR
HAS BEEN ERODING THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BUT THE PACE HAS QUICKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.
NOW...ALL OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA IS SUNNY...AND ONLY SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA HAS SOME LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT THESE TOO ARE QUICKLY
ERODING.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR STRENGTH AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER...A PREVAILING W-NW PREVAILING 5-10 MPH WIND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE STORY IS DIFFERENT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE PRIMARILY LIGHT WINDS WILL TREND EVEN WEAKER...OR
EVEN CALM...OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. AREAS BETWEEN LEWISBURG WV AND BLACKSBURG VA WILL MORE
LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE UPPER 20S.

A PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY ALL WHILE 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.  THIS PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ACROSS PA/MD DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ON THE SOUTH END OF THE SYSTEM WILL SKIRT
MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60
TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S OVER
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SUNDAY...

VERY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES AT LEAST EARLY ON UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE.
THIS SHOULD ACT TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST
INTO LATE TUESDAY WITH ONLY SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION AND WITH WEAK SHEARED ENERGY ALOFT.
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ESPCLY BY TUESDAY WHEN 85H VALUES SURGE
ABOVE +10C UNDER SUNSHINE AND SOME CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE. THUS
BUMPED HIGHS A BIT MORE WITH 60S TO NEAR 70 SE MONDAY...65-70 WEST
TUESDAY AND LOW/MID 70S EAST.

MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SW STATES REMAINS THE MID WEEK
CONCERN AS IT PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALLOWING A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO PASS UP JUST NW OF THE REGION BY WED
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK
BUT STILL HAVE A QUITE IMPRESSIVE WAVE/FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA BY WED EVENING. LEAD AREA OF MOISTURE SHOULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT PASSING
ACROSS THE NW WED MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PRE-FRONTAL SHRA BAND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW TOPPED CONVECTION
WED AFTERNOON ESPCLY ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WARMER. THUS INCLUDED A BIT MORE MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA FOR NOW. OTRW SLOWED POPS UP SOME AT THE ONSET TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN RAMPED UP QUICKER TO CATEGORICAL/LIKELY WEST WED MORNING AND
OUT EAST LATER IN THE DAY. ONCE THE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SURGES
THROUGH WILL SEE A VERY ABRUPT CHANGE TO WINTRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPS PLUMMETING WED EVENING ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AND NW WINDS TAKING
OFF GIVEN VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES WITH THE COLD ADVECTION.
APPEARS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF ADVISORY IF NOT STRONGER WINDS WED
EVENING AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE SCENARIO WEST
WHERE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WINDOW OF WIND BLOWN ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS ESPCLY NW RIDGES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS LOOK TO CRASH FROM THE
50S/60S DURING WED TO THE TEENS AND 20S LATER WED EVENING IN A
SHORT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
WITH ONGOING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AS THE DEEP 5H
TROF PIVOTS EAST AND THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT STARTS TO LIFT OUT.
HOWEVER WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE EARLIER MILD WEATHER WITH
TEMPS/WINDS MAKING THURSDAY MORE LIKE A MID WINTER DAY VS MID
MARCH. WILL KEEP SOME ADDED SNOW SHOWERS GOING OUT WEST MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING...THEN CUT POPS OFF IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
FASTER MODEL DRYING. ELSW SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT UNDER STRONG
DOWNSLOPE BUT COLD EVEN IN THE PIEDMONT. STRONG NW WINDS ALSO A
CONCERN INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUIDANCE
SHOWS 45-50 KTS AT 85H IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP DEPARTING UPPER VORT.
THIS COMBO WITH SUCH A QUICK DROP IN 85H TEMPS OVER A SHORT PERIOD
WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO PLAN TO INCLUDE
IN THE HWO ALONG WITH THE UPSLOPE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NW INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COLDER EC MOS
TEMPS ESPCLY FAR WEST GIVEN RESIDUAL SNOW/CLOUDS AND MORE WITH THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MEX VALUES EAST PER DOWNSLOPE AND ONSET OF WARMING
ALOFT.

BRIEF ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE BACK
INTO BROAD UPPER TROFFINESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PASS NORTH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE NEAR THE BOUNDARY FOR A FEW WESTERN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...OTRW DRY THU NIGHT-FRI
NIGHT UNDER EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER WILL BE VERY COLD UNDER
THIS RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT TEENS WEST...20S EAST WITH EVEN SOME
SINGLE DIGITS OVER SNOW COVER IN THE DEEPER NW VALLEYS. TEMPS
AGAIN QUICK TO REBOUND WITH READINGS JUMPING BACK TO AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SAT WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT AND AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. SLIGHTLY COLDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY WITH YET ANOTHER DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPREADING
MOISTURE EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY OR MORESO
SUNDAY NIGHT AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 738 PM EDT SUNDAY...

VFR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AT ALL SITES AND EVEN
BECOME CALM IN THE VALLEYS. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY GUST TO
25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING PERHAPS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS MILD HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE AREA.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...COLD AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS.
ALSO...VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. BY THIS TIME...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA.

BY FRIDAY..HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND BRING A
DECREASE IN WIND SPEED AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DS/KM