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000
FXUS63 KTOP 241141
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
641 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Water vapor imagery showing upper trough over the Rockies with a
stronger wave in it rotating northeast into southern Utah. Decent
moisture feed downstream of the trough is interacting with a deep
frontal boundary from eastern Colorado into north central Nebraska
to produce scattered showers over western portions of Kansas and
Nebraska overnight.

The Utah wave slowly translates northeast today and tonight,
reaching central Wyoming by Monday morning. The deeper moisture and
modest forcing slowly works its way east across the state, with
precipitation chances ramping up in the area. Expect scattered
activity to reach western areas of the local area this afternoon and
on east into much of the area during the night. Meager lapse rates
aloft keep instability limited, but could see a few thunderstorms
develop. Should see high cloud increase from the southwest through
the day and with continued cooler air pushing in from the south-
southeast, have highs again a bit cooler than the previous day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

On Monday morning, the mid-level trough will be located over
the Rockies with southwest flow persisting over northeast Kansas
as the trough slowly moves eastward through the day. Ongoing
showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday morning located near a
surface front located across central Kansas. This front will move
across the CWA Monday bringing widespread precipitation to the
area along with decreasing temperatures behind it. Temperatures
will decrease 10-15 degrees during the afternoon and evening
Monday from northwest to southeast as the front moves through.
Widespread severe weather continues to look unlikely with only
meager CAPE values and effective shear ahead of the front around
25 knots. 850mb winds from the south southwest will be oriented
parallel to the front which could allow for some training of
storms leading to localized heavy rainfall as the boundary pushes
through by late Monday night. Post-frontal precipitation is
expected to linger through Tuesday, with clearing beginning later
Tuesday afternoon from the northwest to southeast. By Wednesday
morning, all showers and storms will have moved out of the area.
Tuesday will be the first day seasonable temperatures are seen
across all of northeast Kansas, with high temperatures in the
upper 60s to mid-70s.

While models do diverge a bit in the overall synoptic pattern late
week, the overall consensus is for dry conditions through the end
of the period. High temperatures remain pretty steady Tuesday
through Saturday with low to mid-70s seen. Lows generally stay in
the 50s and upper 40s through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

VFR conditions should persist through at least 06Z. South winds
increase again with daytime heating with a few gusts possible
around 20Z. Will go ahead with VCSH at MHK late in the forecast as
upper system approaches.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...65