010
FXUS63 KTOP 152340
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
640 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today and tomorrow with highs in the 90s and heat indices
  around or above 100 degrees.

- A few storms move into north-central KS tonight with a gusty
  wind risk. More widespread threat for storms arrives
  Wednesday night with a cold front.

- Cooler Thursday but heat builds again for the weekend and into
  next week, with heat indices around or above 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Southerly moist flow and some warm-air advection ahead of an
approaching weak trough may be enough to spark some isolated
showers or thunderstorms across far eastern Kansas late this
afternoon or early evening. Late tonight, an MCS is forecast to
develop across southern Nebraska. This complex of storms may
push far enough south to impact far northern Kansas. Gusty wind
and heavy rain would be the main threat with this complex if it
can hold together, but forecast soundings show a quickly
decoupling boundary layer and increasing CIN, limiting the
threat for stronger storms. This complex of storms will help
push an outflow boundary and effective cold front into the area
Wednesday. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to the
exact southward extent of this boundary/front. North of the
front, cloud cover and cooler temperatures will be common. South
of the front, very warm and humid conditions are likely with
temperatures around 100 and heat indicies around 105.

This boundary will be the focus for thunderstorms through the
rest of the day. Several models are showing a well mixed
boundary layer with over 2,500 J/Kg of ML CAPE by the afternoon,
but with some inhibition in place from morning convection and a
lack of mid/upper-level support, it may be hard to spark any
storms in the afternoon. During the evening/overnight a low-
level jet should kick in and have a favorable orientation to the
boundary. CAMs show widely scattered storms forming along the
front/boundary. A few strong to severe storms may develop with
ample CAPE and 30 knots of shear, at least near the boundary.
If training storms develop, very heavy rainfall and flooding
could become a concern.

Models are coming into better agreement with the front moving
through our area Thursday. This would lead to a much cooler day
with highs in the 70s and 80s depending on cloud cover. Temperatures
warm back up for the weekend with strong southerly flow
returning. Heat indices will likely surpass 100 during the
afternoon Saturday and Sunday.

With westerly flow aloft and ample low-level moisture in place,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through the weekend, but at this time, nothing more
than scattered coverage is favored.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions are forecast. Main thing to watch for aviation
purposes will be how far south thunderstorms can make it as they
move into the area from southern Nebraska after 06Z. Only the
HRRR has been bringing any storms far enough south to impact
terminals, but it has been consistent with this the last several
runs, so decided to go ahead and add a PROB30 group. Even if
this occurs, they are expected to weaken as they progress into
the area. Outside of these low storm chances, expect southerly
winds to prevail through the period mostly around 10 kts or less.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Picha