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000
FXUS63 KTOP 102351
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave moving into northern NV
and southern ID and another wave moving east across the TX big bend.
At the surface a weak trough of low pressure stretched from the high
plains of NM northeast into the upper Midwest.

For tonight and into Tuesday morning, dry weather is expected to
persist as the airmass in the lower half of the troposphere remains
dry. Models show low level winds remain from the southwest so the
deeper moisture advection is progged to occur mainly to the east of
the forecast area across southern MO. We should see high clouds
continuing to increase overnight as the shortwave over the west
moves closer. This is expected to help keep overnight temps very
mild with forecast lows in the lower and mid 40s.

By Tuesday afternoon, the shortwave should begin to move across the
forecast area with a surface low moving from eastern KS into central
MO. Again with limited deep layer moisture advection into the
forecast area, models struggle to saturate the airmass until the
front passes and cold air advection kicks in. Because of this do not
start to increase POPs until the early afternoon. The pressure
gradient will also becoming strong as pressure rises behind the
front. Models are suggesting the gradient will be strong enough for
sustained wind speeds around 30 mph. With this in mind, will issue a
wind advisory for the afternoon and through the evening Tuesday.
Afternoon highs will be dependent on when the front moves through.
For now think there could be some falling temps in the afternoon
across north central KS while temps continue to rise in east central
KS, so have a pretty good gradient in max temps with around 50
across Republic CO and lower 70s in Coffey, Anderson and Franklin
Counties.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

Winds still look rather strong into the evening hours as the
pressure gradient slowly decreases. Just how fast they come down is
a challenge with good mixing continuing, as well as possible precip
falling aiding in momentum transfer. On the former, still have
issues with how much lift goes into saturating the upper layers
for snow potential, and getting accumulations still seem unlikely.
Reduced visibilities may be the main impact of any snowfall.
Probably see some bands of rain as the frontal surface deepens and
bumped up PoPs a bit. The upper wave quickly exits, keeping the
bulk of the precipitation chances in the evening.

Northwest flow dominates the area for the mid to late week. Still
seeing somewhat high model spread with temps Wednesday with the
potential for persistent stratus on some solutions. Didn`t change
values much at this point. Warmer air returns Thursday under
temporary ridging aloft and west to southwest low level flow.
Still looks like a weak boundary will sag in from the north Friday
but again the airmass behind it will be very modified for little
change in temps. The old upper wave that cuts off to the west
should pass to the south, and even if it were to venture farther
north moisture should be a real challenge for any precip threat.

Models begin to diverge more noticeably for later portions of the
forecast. Still some potential for a deepening wave coming
through Saturday night into Sunday, and will keep some small
chances going. Temperature profiles may support some changeover to
snow in the late night and early morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 21 to 24 hours. A strong cold
front will move southward cross the terminals late Tuesday
afternoon shifting winds to the northwest at 15 to 25 KTS with
gusts of 25 to 35 KTS. Stratus with VFR to MVFR ceilings will
develop behind the front towards 00Z WED.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 4 PM Tuesday to 1 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ011-
012-022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ008>010-020-
021-034-035.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan