Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 290446
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO NE OK BY WED AFTERNOON. POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL
COOLING TO ENSURE ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT INDEX READINGS ON
WEDNESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS MORNING WITH A FOCUS NEARER THE
SFC BOUNDARY THURS AFTERNOON / EVENING. OVERALL WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH UPPER HIGH CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWNWARD...THOUGH AN AXIS OF HIGH DEWPOINTS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY AGAIN PUSH ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT
INDICES.

THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY BEFORE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AGAIN EXPAND AND PUSH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL KEEP MID LEVEL TEMPS A
BIT COOLER WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  98  75  93 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   77 100  78  97 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   74  98  74  95 /   0  10  10  30
BVO   74  95  73  90 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   73  93  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   74  94  70  89 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   76  96  76  92 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   75  95  70  91 /   0  10  10  20
F10   74  98  75  93 /   0  10  10  20
HHW   74  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
     060>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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