Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 221517
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1017 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A lead shortwave was positioned over far Southeast
Colorado...Southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles at
mid morning today. This wave was ahead of a main trof
axis...associated with a parent closed low over Southern
Ontario...dropping southeast through the Northern Rocky
Mountains/Northern High Plains. Across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas...cloud cover with the lead wave was moving
over Northeast Oklahoma while mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
were common for the rest of the CWA.

Through this afternoon...the lead shortwave will shift east
southeast into Western Oklahoma as the main trof axis continues
to drop southeast across the central CONUS. In
response...scattered rain showers along with the potential for
isolated thunder is forecast to push into Northeast Oklahoma
during the afternoon hours and across the rest of the CWA
overnight tonight. Instability continues to be marginal which
should continue to limit severe potentials. With the precip
chances expecting to hold off until the afternoon hours...this
should help for temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s for
the CWA before cloud cover spreads back over the region.

Thus for the morning update...have added minor tweaks to
pops/wx/temps/winds and adjusted cloud cover to account for
latest trends and observations.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  56  69  49 /  20  50  40  10
FSM   79  59  73  52 /  10  40  50  20
MLC   77  57  71  50 /  10  50  50  10
BVO   75  53  69  47 /  30  40  30  10
FYV   75  54  68  47 /  10  40  50  20
BYV   75  54  68  48 /  10  40  50  20
MKO   77  56  69  49 /  10  50  50  10
MIO   75  54  68  47 /  10  50  40  10
F10   76  57  69  49 /  20  50  40  10
HHW   77  58  71  51 /  10  30  50  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....14



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