Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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486
FXUS64 KTSA 301513
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1013 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
This morning an upper low was located over Western Kansas/Western
Nebraska with a surface low over Eastern Kansas/Western Missouri.
A trailing cold front off the surface low had positioned itself
from far Eastern Kansas through the far northwest corner of
Arkansas to Southeast Oklahoma and finally into Central/Southern
Texas. Across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...low level
ceilings were rotating through the region around the main upper
low...with drier air trying to wrap into Western Oklahoma.

This afternoon...the cold front will continue to make progress
through far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Ahead of the
front...a limited instability axis interacting with the front will
allow for the potential of a few thunderstorms to be
possible...mainly along and east of a line from far Southeast Le
Flore co in Southeast Oklahoma to Carroll co in Northwest
Arkansas. Severe potentials look to reside east of the CWA this
afternoon where the better destabilization should occur. Any
thunderstorm activity that develops over the far eastern portion
of the CWA should exit by this evening with the departing frontal
boundary. Latest short-term model solutions continue to agree with
this and will thus continue the current pops for today.

Behind the front...the drier air trying to wrap into the upper low
looks to move into and through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas this afternoon/tonight. This should help to erode this
mornings cloud cover from west to east...with periods of sun
possible this afternoon for the CWA. Thus...afternoon temps look
to rebound back into the 70s for most locations. Also behind the
front...surface winds should become westerly 5 to 15 mph.

Morning update will be to adjust sky grids based on the mentioned
above and to tweak temp/dewpoint/wind grids based on current
trends. The rest of the forecast configuration seems to be
handling well at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  47  68  47 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   77  53  75  54 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   71  50  71  51 /   0   0   0  40
BVO   72  46  66  45 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   73  46  68  48 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   74  49  70  47 /  20  10   0  10
MKO   71  49  70  49 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   73  47  67  47 /   0   0   0  20
F10   70  50  69  50 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   76  55  75  54 /  10   0   0  50

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30



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