Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 180411

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
910 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue through next week.
Slightly cooler temperatures will occur this weekend and early next
week, with freezing temperatures possible Sunday and Monday mornings
for eastern valley locations. Daytime temperatures rebound quickly
to near record or record levels by Thanksgiving.


.DISCUSSION...Mainly high clouds were on the increase this evening
as a system passes north of the area. Expecting a cool down this
weekend in the wake of this system, but it will not last long as
near record or record high temperatures can be anticipated by
Thanksgiving. Current forecast looked in good shape, so no updates
this evening.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 19/00Z.
Clouds will continue to increase across the area this evening as an
approaching trough moves into southeast Arizona. Some occasional
southwest/northwest breeziness is expected coincident with the
frontal passage this evening but this will be short lived and winds
will return to their normal diurnal directions after midnight.
Mostly clear skies and diurnal winds will prevail on Saturday.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are likely through the end of next
week. Lingering breeziness is possible east of Tucson into early
this evening as a trough departs the area, otherwise winds will
follow typical upslope/downvalley patterns through much of the
upcoming week.


.PREV DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery revealed partly cloudy
conditions for much of the CWA. More extensive cloud cover was
located across the northern 2/3 of the state. Cloud cover should
still increase and thicken somewhat from north to south this
afternoon in association with a trough pushing across the Great
Basin to our north. No precip for us with this system, but a weak
cold front will allow temperatures to drop several degrees into this
weekend, though values will still remain above average for mid-

The aforementioned trough is progged to pass to the northeast across
Colorado tonight into Saturday ushering in dry NWLY flow aloft. With
cooler temps, clearing skies and low dewpoints, the first widespread
freeze of the season is possible across the valleys of Cochise and
Graham counties. A freeze watch has been hoisted for some of these
areas for Sunday and Monday mornings. The caveat to this could be
elevated easterly winds on Sunday morning, which could mix out the
surface inversion just enough to keep temperatures above freezing.

No luck with precip next week either, as zonal flow will give way to
strong ridging over the entire western CONUS. Daytime temperatures
haven`t been able to drop to near average values in quite some time,
and our luck doesn`t appear to be changing over the next 7 days.
Highs Saturday through Tuesday will top out 5 to 8 degrees above
normal, with record or near record highs likely Thanksgiving into
next weekend.






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