Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 031004
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD IN AN ENERGETIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG WARMING TREND TODAY. IT WILL PEAK
ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY. THIS
WILL PUT ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS ABOVE 90...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
FROM NEAR TUCSON WESTWARD. THE CHANCE OF THE FIRST 100 AT TIA
WEDNESDAY IS VERY LOW, BUT NOT ZERO.

A NICE SPLIT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW A SYSTEM TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY...TRACKING INTO ARIZONA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS
THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST FOR MOST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY. BOTH FIRE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WE MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY MODEL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EVEN SO IT PROBABLY WON`T BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT.
WATCH FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW CU 8-12K FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH SOME GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF TUCSON BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH
THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO
COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY COVERING FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151 AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
EASILY EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH WINDS LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH AS
WELL.

THE FUELS ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL WITH GRASSES THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN AREAS. AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVE IN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZES PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
   FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ150-151

$$

&&

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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