Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 300348

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
830 PM MST SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak and slow moving upper level low will maintain
temperatures near to slightly below average to start the week. As it
passes overhead Tuesday into Wednesday...a modest moisture increase
from the south will bring a slight chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Strong high pressure will then build over
the region the latter part of the week and into the weekend,
resulting in hotter daytime temperatures with highs in the triple
digits from Tucson across the lower deserts.


.DISCUSSION...We may end up with busier afternoons Tuesday and
Wednesday than currently advertised.  A decent moisture push up the
Gulf of California is underway.  CIRA LPW estimates have jumped from
precipitable water totals around .4 inches near Guaymas yesterday to
1.3 inches today. Contributions in the surface to 850mb layer is up
from .3 to .6 inches, and surface dew points are up 25 degrees into
the 60s. Similar responses are noted across southern to central
Sonora including Hermosillo.  Some of this moisture will make it
into southern Arizona in time to interact with the weakening low as
it pushes through Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.  Isolated valley
and lower elevation convection possible with increasing chances
around mountains.  Watch for dryish high based storms with
convective outflows.  The cores of storms in scenarios like this are
typically smaller, with solid rainfall in the cores but much less
areal precip overall compared to deeper moisture situations.  In
addition to elevated chances of dusty convective outflows, we may
have fire weather concerns with dry lightning.

We are still on course for the strong ridge to bring temperatures in
excess of 100 later this week...with both the first 100 and first
105 possible at Tucson International Airport.


Clear skies through Monday afternoon except for a few clouds above
12k ft msl near the Mexico and New Mexico border in the vicinity of
KDUG and KOLS. Surface wind early this evening and Monday afternoon
will generally be sly/swly at 12-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts.
Surface will be mainly less than 10 kts at other times. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will occur through Monday. A
modest moisture increase will then bring a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong gusty
winds and dry lightning conditions possible with any storms that
form. Most of the moisture will then shift eastward into New Mexico
Thursday into the weekend, except for possibly the eastern mountains
where a few storms are possible. Otherwise, occasionally gusty
afternoon winds will occur into next weekend due to strong daytime


.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.




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