Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 310406
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL THEN LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST OF
TUCSON THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOTTER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY SENT NW-N INTO MARICOPA COUNTY ALONG COMBINED
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO GENERATE NEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
MARICOPA COUNTY WITHIN IN PAST 1-2 HRS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. NEW 00Z RUN OF THE UOFA WRF NAM ALONG
WITH 02Z HRRR RUN MOVES THIS AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SE PINAL
COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAN OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST
LAST HOUR TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
WDLY SCTD -SHRA/ISOLD TS N-NW OF KTUS THRU 31/10Z...OTRW DECREASING
DEBRIS CLOUDS THRU 31/16Z. AFT 31/18Z SCTD SHRA/TSRA DVLPG. BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KTS WILL BE PSBL IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGER STORMS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCE SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY NW OF TUCSON INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE FOCUSED
OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
WEDNESDAY ON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET AND AS IS TYPICAL
MAY PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED. BEGINNING MONDAY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS ZONE
150...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD SETTING DAY FOR TUCSON AIRPORT AS IT RECORDED THE
82ND CONSECUTIVE DAY IN WHICH THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 70 DEGREES OR
WARMER. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 81 DAYS WHICH OCCURRED JUST TWO
YEARS AGO. UNLESS THE AIRPORT GETS HIT WITH A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ADD UP DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON


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