000
FXUS63 KTOP 260909
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
409 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Two separate storm systems bring several rounds of thunderstorms
 to the area through the weekend.

-Large hail, strong damaging winds and tornadoes are all possible
 this afternoon in far eastern KS, and again Saturday.

-Multiple rounds of rain could also lead to localized flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Early this morning, a 50 kt LLJ is in place over eastern KS
ahead of a deepening mid-level storm system that is ejecting
out over the High Plains of Nebraska/Kansas. The surface low is
over far western KS with a warm front extending east/southeast
through southern KS. Dew points south of the warm front are in
the mid to upper 60s. The warm sector of the system will
continue to advance northward through the area this morning as
the warm front passes to the north. Instability will build to
over 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates
between 7-7.5 C/km in place across eastern KS by mid-afternoon.
Strong wind fields east of the upper low will lead to
sufficient deep layer shear for severe weather, while 0-3km SRH
values ranging from 150-200 m2/s2 point to a tornadic potential.
Thus, all modes of severe weather will be possible with any
supercell development east of the dryline this afternoon. Some
CAMs hint at isolated to widely scattered convective initiation
as early as 20Z, with storms exiting to the east by around 01Z.

A period of dry weather is expected tonight as the first system
moves northeast into the Upper Midwest. In the meantime, a second
system will dig over the desert southwest, inducing surface
cyclogenesis in southwest KS. Central and eastern KS will remain in
the warm sector with a surface boundary northwest of the area. The
setup Saturday still appears to have better potential for a round of
significant and widespread severe weather impacting the area. HREF
shows average SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and 0-3km SRH between
100 and 200 m2/s2. A complex of storms looks to develop south of the
area during the afternoon and move northward as the upper level
jet and large scale forcing increases. Once again, given the
impressive shear and instability parameters, all modes of severe
weather (very large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes) will be
possible. Heavy rainfall could also occur, leading to localized
flooding, especially where grounds were recently saturated by
heavy rain from Anderson County northwest through Cloud County.
The convective complex looks to slowly work eastward with time,
while continuing into the overnight period.

Yet another round of severe weather looks possible Sunday afternoon
in eastern portions of KS with the main trough axis and surface cold
front still just west of the area. A little more uncertainty exists
with this round, which will be partially dependent on how much
destabilization can occur following previous heavy thunderstorm
activity and lingering cloud cover. Some models, however, show
enough deep layer shear to support rotating updrafts with any storms
that manage to develop before the front pushes through the area
Sunday night.

Following these several rounds of active and potentially
impactful weather, a much needed stretch of quite weather is
then anticipated to begin the next workweek. NBM has POPs
increasing once again by midweek when our next cold front could
approach the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms could impact TOP sites
early this period before a stretch of dry weather is expected
through midday Friday. IFR ceilings are forecast tonight through
late morning Friday. VFR is expected to return by early
afternoon at all airport. Wind remains a concern as south-
southeast winds stay gusty much of the night and increase
further after sunrise, gusting over 30 kts at times. Isolated to
widely-scattered strong storms could then develop near
KTOP/KFOE after 22Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey