418
FXUS63 KTOP 150508
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1208 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow morning into Thursday,
low chance for a brief strong to severe storm.

- Temperatures stay near average for the next few days, warm
  into the 80s for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

As low pressure pulls away to the east, narrow surface ridging has
moved over eastern Kansas. This is making for a calm and mild May
day, with sunny skies, light north winds, and temperatures warming
into the 70s. Late tonight into early tomorrow morning, winds turn
southeasterly as low pressure deepens over the southern High Plains
in advance of a broad positive tilt trough. This will draw moisture
back towards the area. Cloud cover will increase while a broken band
of showers develops and lifts northeast. After this quick first
round, the better chances for showers and storms will wait until
evening and overnight as an inverted trough northeast of the surface
low passes through. Still think that the overall chances of severe
weather look low, as instability will remain muted by widespread
cloud cover. However with 30-40 kts of shear, a few strong to severe
storms could occur if breaks in the clouds can allow for a bit more
heating/instability than expected. This would be more likely towards
central and north-central Kansas, and would consist of a
marginal wind/hail risk. Locally heavy rainfall could also
occur where convection lingers for several hours, which would
mainly be a concern for places that received several inches of
rain yesterday. Rain chances taper off during the day on
Thursday as the surface boundary gradually moves southeast. Most
showers should be done by mid- day Thursday, though a few low-
end PoPs linger into Friday morning with the upper low still
nearby.

By the weekend, a split flow pattern still looks to be present
across the CONUS. Confidence continues to increase that upper
ridging will be present over the central Plains, supporting warming
temperatures. Saturday looks to be the warmest day, climbing into
the mid/upper 80s ahead of a weak front dropping down from the
north. Some scattered showers and storms will be possible (20-30%)
as this front moves through, though the best upper forcing will stay
well to our northeast. Beyond the weekend, confidence is still
rather low given the split flow pattern. However there are some
signs in recent deterministic and ensemble guidance that a stronger
trough will begin to develop to our west, with southwest flow aloft
over the Plains. If this trend does continue, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase for next week as moisture and
wind shear increase.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

More recent versions of the RAP and HRRR have started to back
off on stratus and fog potential. Think this is part due to the
increasing high clouds from the west. Forecast soundings show
this keeping surface temps warmer and above the crossover temp.
Still the CAMs show about a 33% chance of fog for a brief window
around sunrise. So will keep a tempo at TOP in case there is
enough of a break in cloud cover for some ground fog to develop.
CAMS also suggest coverage of precip today to be somewhere
between isolated and scattered. Skill in timing this is not
great so plan to just have a VCSH through the day. Instability
is pretty marginal so TS may be even more limited.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Wolters