Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 301727
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

An upper low across northwest KS will slowly drift northeast into
southeast NE by 12Z SUN. Most of the ascent ahead of the upper low
will remain north of the CWA but there may be enough lift for
occasional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms. MUCAPE
will be less than 300 J/KG...thus any thunderstorm that manages to
develop will be weak. The northern terr counties across the CWA will
see the best chance for scattered showers. Along and south of I-70
may stay dry through the day. Surface winds will become west-
southwesterly through the morning hours then veer more to the west-
northwest by late afternoon. Highs Today will be cool once again
with most areas across the CWA only getting into the 50s. The
eastern counties may see mid to upper 60s with southwest surface
winds remaining for much of the afternoon hours. If there are breaks
in the overcast highs could be slightly warmer.

Tonight, as the upper low moves northeast across the far norther
counties of the CWA into southeast NE there could be some residual
moisture that wraps around the vertically stacked surface/850mb/H5
low which could cause isolated showers to develop southward towards
I-70 after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

By Sunday, the upper level low will be located just northeast of the
area keeping showers limited to areas north of I-70 through the
afternoon.  This system moves east of the area by late afternoon
before another wave from the west moves toward northeast Kansas late
Sunday into Monday bringing more chances for rain showers.  PoPs
taper off by Monday night as a combination of surface high pressure
and upper level ridging keep conditions quiet for the work week. The
next chances for rain and thunderstorms arrives Friday night into
the weekend as another deep upper trough moves over the western
CONUS.

As for temperatures, Sunday starts off cool with cold air advection
aiding in highs reaching only the the upper 50s and low 60s.  A
gradual warm up is expected through the period as mostly clear skies
prevail. By Friday highs are expected in the upper 70s, with only a
slight cool down Saturday into the mid 70s as clouds approach the
area with increasing precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR cigs will continue into the afternoon at all terminals.
Visible satellite and short-term guidance continue to show
decreasing cloud cover along and south of Interstate-70, therefore
continue to think cigs will become VFR by mid-afternoon at all
terminals. As the low pressure moves eastward, another area of
MVFR cigs, possibly IFR, will return in the 05-06Z timeframe at
all terminals. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out tomorrow
morning at all terminals, however the bulk of precip will stay
north of Interstate-70. Cloud cover looks to linger near the end
of the period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Baerg



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