


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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900 FXUS63 KTOP 151932 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm today and tomorrow with highs in the 90s and heat indices around or above 100 degrees. - A few storms move into north-central KS tonight with a gusty wind risk. More widespread threat for storms arrives Wednesday night with a cold front. - Cooler Thursday but heat builds again for the weekend and into next week, with heat indices around or above 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Southerly moist flow and some warm-air advection ahead of an approaching weak trough may be enough to spark some isolated showers or thunderstorms across far eastern Kansas late this afternoon or early evening. Late tonight, an MCS is forecast to develop across southern Nebraska. This complex of storms may push far enough south to impact far northern Kansas. Gusty wind and heavy rain would be the main threat with this complex if it can hold together, but forecast soundings show a quickly decoupling boundary layer and increasing CIN, limiting the threat for stronger storms. This complex of storms will help push an outflow boundary and effective cold front into the area Wednesday. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to the exact southward extent of this boundary/front. North of the front, cloud cover and cooler temperatures will be common. South of the front, very warm and humid conditions are likely with temperatures around 100 and heat indicies around 105. This boundary will be the focus for thunderstorms through the rest of the day. Several models are showing a well mixed boundary layer with over 2,500 J/Kg of ML CAPE by the afternoon, but with some inhibition in place from morning convection and a lack of mid/upper-level support, it may be hard to spark any storms in the afternoon. During the evening/overnight a low- level jet should kick in and have a favorable orientation to the boundary. CAMs show widely scattered storms forming along the front/boundary. A few strong to severe storms may develop with ample CAPE and 30 knots of shear, at least near the boundary. If training storms develop, very heavy rainfall and flooding could become a concern. Models are coming into better agreement with the front moving through our area Thursday. This would lead to a much cooler day with highs in the 70s and 80s depending on cloud cover. Temperatures warm back up for the weekend with strong southerly flow returning. Heat indices will likely surpass 100 during the afternoon Saturday and Sunday. With westerly flow aloft and ample low-level moisture in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend, but at this time, nothing more than scattered coverage is favored. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with light southerly wind and mostly clear sky. Some thunderstorms may move out of southern Nebraska after 06z tonight, but confidence these thunderstorms make it far enough south to impact terminals is very low at this point. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Jones