000
FXUS63 KTOP 190007
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
707 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATE FOR SHORT TERM STORM POTENTIAL AND AVIATION FORECAST...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE IN
OVERTURNING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
OUTFLOW SEEMS TO HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDED FROM
NEAR SALINA TO EUREKA AT 7 PM. AN AREA OF DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CONCORDIA TO CLAY CENTER HAS ALSO BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY AND THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS HAVE RECENTLY INITIALIZED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SALINA. ONE OR TWO MORE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO DICKINSON AND
MORRIS COUNTIES WHERE SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE
SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING COMING TO
AN END...THE STORMS SHOULD ALSO END FOR THE NIGHT BY 9 PM OR SO.
BEFORE 9...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS
AND PERHAPS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. THE RAINFALL WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS HAS ALSO BEEN IMPRESSIVE...WITH RATES
APPROACHING 3 INCHES PER HOUR. A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN THE AREAS WHERE STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DECAYING MCS AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS COMPLEX GRADUALLY CROSSED THE KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA LINE AFTER 18Z. FURTHER SOUTH OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
WITH A DECENT MOISTURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST AT AROUND 25 KTS...A LIMITING
CAP AND DECENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE
GRADIENT HAS AIDED IN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL NEAR A QUARTER SIZE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL GROW RAPIDLY DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT WITH
LACK OF DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD NOT SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. AS DAYTIME HEATING WINDS
DOWN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

FOR TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL VORT MAX.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS CONVECTION SLOWER AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE I KEPT SLIGHT POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS STILL REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE HANDLED QPF OUTPUT POORLY...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE
IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN ANY UPDRAFTS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. DECENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ALLOWED HIGHS TO BE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WED NIGHT-FRI...NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRINGS ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES
SO. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN WILL END
POPS WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
CAP MOVE IN.  HIGHS CLIMB FROM UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A
RIDGES BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT SLIDES THROUGH NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE. THE NEXT CHANCES
FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INNER
MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER AROUND MHK THROUGH
01Z...BUT SHOULD BE OVER FOR TOP/FOE FOR THE NIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH EAST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTH BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KTS AFTER 16Z. THERE IS SOME THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 21Z AT MHK...AND AFTER 23Z AT TOP/FOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...67/SANDERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH