000
FXUS63 KTOP 271751
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1251 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Strong to severe thunderstorms remain in the forecast today with
 all modes of severe weather possible.

-A few strong storms could develop again tomorrow in eastern KS as a
 front continues to move through the area.

-Most days next week have at least low end POPs with an active
 pattern continuing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Water vapor imagery and mid level chart analysis show a lead mid-
level system progressing northward into the Upper Midwest, with
another digging across the Four Corners region early today. At the
surface, one sfc low is centered over southern Minnesota with
another remaining near where OK/TX/NM meet. In between, a frontal
boundary is positioned across northeast and central KS with a
dryline evident from western OK into north-central TX. Strong
southerly moisture transport will continue to advect higher
moisture back into the area this morning while the surface
boundary retreats back to the north as a warm front. 08Z
mesoanalysis shows 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE remaining in place
over the forecast area with quite a bit of CIN also evident.
Stratus that develops with low level moisture increase early
today will erode by early afternoon, allowing any lingering cap
to disappear.

Discerning the convective evolution of storms today is the main
forecast challenge. Have slight chances for a few elevated storms
this morning in the axis of moisture advection near the retreating
boundary. More robust convection could then develop south of the
area as instability builds and the jet increases aloft. That
activity would then track northward into the CWA. Convective
initiation could concurrently occur along the warm front across
northern and north-central KS this afternoon. As previously
advertised, the environment will be supportive of significant
severe weather due to upwards of 3000 J/kg of uninhibited
SBCAPE, 0-3km SRH increasing to above 200 m2/s2 and deep layer
shear values around 50 kts. Thus, very large hail, damaging
winds and tornadoes will all be possible. Heavy rainfall could
also occur and a Flood Watch remains in effect across eastern
KS. Activity should wane into the late evening and overnight
hours. However, a few CAMs are showing the possibility of
additional development of non-severe elevated storms overnight
with additional mid-level PVA.

On Sunday, the main trough axis will remain west of the area while
the surface low moves into southeast Nebraska. A trailing cold front
will work through northeast KS during the afternoon. Instability
will again increase east of the boundary, which could lead to the
development of a few more storms in far eastern KS. Instability
and shear will not be as impressive as today, but there should
be enough to lead to at least a marginal risk for severe weather.
Once the front makes it east of the area, dry weather is
expected for at least a brief time early in the workweek. POPs
increase again on Tuesday when another surface boundary may move
through the region. Temperatures stay warm through next week
but most days come with at least low end POPs as an active
synoptic pattern continues.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Main aviation concern is with thunderstorms in the first half of
the period, which have the potential to be severe. Storms have
already developed along a line from Salina to Sabetha near the
warm front. These may stay just north of the MHK terminal
initially, but with additional storms expected to move in from
south central KS and more development possible in the warm
sector, have gone ahead with a tempo TSRA at MHK for a few hours
this afternoon. Otherwise, storms should continue to move east
toward the Topeka terminals later this afternoon into the
evening, although guidance remains mixed on exactly when and how
quickly they move into east central KS. With this in mind,
amendments will need to be made as necessary. It`s tough to
pinpoint any point in time when there could be any breaks in
convection through the evening and overnight, though there
should be an end to the activity by early morning. MVFR cigs
look to make a return late tonight, likely not scattering until
after this period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Picha