Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 020530
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT. IN
THE SRN THIRD MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AND DIE BY AROUND 10 PM. SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES CLEAR
ALONG THE NYPA BORDER WHICH SHOULD EXPAND TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOOK
GOOD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT INTO GRIDS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE DECENT
LIFT AND SHEAR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MID LAYERS NOT SATURATED BUT
ENOUGH TO HINDER HAIL SIZE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW GOOD WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT MAIN SHOW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS GREAT TIMING FOR MAX HEATING. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER COULD BE WARMER FOR AVP AND MSV.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS AND WINDS TO
OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP LIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN VICINITY AND LOW LEVEL HEATING CAUSING
INSTABILITY. LL JET COULD BE 40 KTS. VERY GOOD FOR EARLY AUGUST
BUT NOT UNUSUAL WITH YET ANOTHER NE US UL TROF. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1K
CAPE COMBINED WITH 40 KT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN
PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK
IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY
THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR
DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS KELM WHERE WE INDICATE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISBYS NEAR DAWN BUT THICKER FOG AND
RESTRICTIONS TO IFR SEEM UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR ALL SITES. W/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MAINLY AFTN TSTMS PSBL.

WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE/TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF


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