Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 291920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
EARLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS INTO NE PA WHERE A QUICK
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS COULD BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING S/W EARLY ON
SATURDAY AND MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE REGION FROM THE SW. THE
PRESENCE OF THE WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACT TO KEEP
WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CLEAR ALL THE CLOUDS OUT. EVEN
STILL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

BECOMING UNSETTLED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
WITH RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, EXPECT INITIAL
WAVE OF RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA / OVERRUNNING TO MOVE IN SW
TO NE AFTER 3Z. RAIN LOOKS TO BE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE EASING FOR A TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER BY
LATE SUNDAY, THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH S/W ENERGY IN THE UPPER LEVELS SWINGING EAST TOWARD
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADIER AND HEAVIER
RAIN MOVING THROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING RAINFALL TOTALS
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE NAM INDICATES OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION....HEAVIER THAN THE GFS AND EC. LEANED A LITTLE MORE
TOWARD THESE LATTER TWO MODELS AND HAVE FORECAST STORM TOTALS
GENERALLY OF .75 TO 1.00 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE THIS WILL
BE OCCURRING OVER A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD WE DON`T EXPECT HYDRO
ISSUES.

THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A STACKED LOW
OVER NW QUEBEC...LOW EXITING THE NEW ENG CST...AND A BROAD FNT
STALLED OVER THE SE US WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND TROPICAL RAINS. TUE
AND WED LOOK MSTLY DRY UNDER WEAK SFC HIPRES. EVENTUALLY THE
QUEBEC LOW ROTATES A WV AND SFC FNT SE WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE
CREEPS UP THE ATLANTIC CST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COME TOGETHER AND
CAUSE COOL RAIN THU UNDER A DVLPG UPR LOW. RAINS SHD LINGER INTO
FRI AS THE CLSD LOW MEANDERS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS
THRU THE PD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NRML...BUT NO EXTREMES
XPCTD. ALL IN ALL A DAMP END TO THE WEEK AFTER AN XTNDD PD OPF DRY
WX FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OLD FNTL BNDRY DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN CONTS TO
BRING VFR CIGS TO THE AREA. SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW A LGT RETURN
ELY FLOW ACROSS CNTRL PA CURVING UP INTOP WRN NY MAY BRING SOME
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS LTR TNGT TO AVP/BGM AND ELM. DRIER AIR FROM
NEW ENG ARRIVES LTR TNGT AND EARLY SAT RAISING CIGS AND PERHAPS
SOME CLRG OVER THE ERN SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN/MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE/WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM



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