Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 290121
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
921 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AT 915 PM... QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WIND JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BEING AS
EXTENSIVE AS THIS MORNING... WITH JUST SOME PATCHES EXPECTED IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
50 AND 55 IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME 40S IN NORMALLY COOLER LOW-
LYING AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


A SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE CWA HOWEVER DAYTIME
HEATING INDUCED CU HAS LED TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SETTING UP FOR TONIGHT. WE DO INDICATE PATCHY VALLEY
FOG IN THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER SINCE THE WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
START TO STRENGTHEN FOG WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS DENSE AND
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS PAST MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR SATURDAY, MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING GIVE WAY TO SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE
THOUGH CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE GREATEST OVER
CENTRAL NY WITH LESS OVER NE PA. THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE S/E
WILL HELP TEMPS TO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

REMAINING WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH 850 TEMPS IN
THE 14C TO 16C RANGE SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE INCREASED A BIT FOR SUNDAY BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. BOTH THE 12Z EURO AND GFS SHOW A TROF MOVING
INTO THE AREA WITH STORM CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, WITH CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE NY,
WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND MAINLY FROM SOUTHWEST NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. WE WILL HAVE A BIT OF A MID LEVEL CAP BETWEEN 10KFT AND 15KFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. FOR NOW I INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE (20%) RANGE FOR MOST OF NY STATE, WITH 30% POPS OVER THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROF WILL LEAD TO A DRY
AND WARM MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY DRY AND WARM, A REAL NICE END TO SUMMER! THE TREND FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES IN THAT ANY SUPPORT FOR AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A HINT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
HAS DIMINISHED. 500 MB HEIGHTS OF 590 DM+ THROUGH MID WEEK SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OUR WARM SPOTS TOUCHING 90 A
GOOD POSSIBILITY. PERHAPS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY, WE MAY SEE A SHOT AT SOME RAIN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE 12Z EURO
KEEPS US DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANY FRONT REMAINING OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THE GFS IS QUICKER, WITH A THURSDAY ARRIVAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20000 FEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARD DAYBREAK... HOWEVER
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BEING WIDESPREAD. BEST CHC FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE AT ELM FROM 08Z TO 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST AT 10 KTS
OR LESS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. GENERALLY VFR
WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING
WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM AS USUAL. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS CAN ALSO OCCUR EACH DAY HOWEVER MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MSE/PCF


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