Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 211803
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
203 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...
UPR LVL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIT WAVES AT US AND KEEPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION DVLPNG AT RANDOM TDA. AS CONVECTION HEADS EAST THIS EVNG,
EXPECT IT TO BCM A LITTLE MORE INTENSE ALONG AND EAST OF I-81
CORRIDOR IN AREA OF BETTER LIFT AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HWVR THRU 00Z
EXPECT LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. MLCAPES OF
1000 J/KG HV OVERSPREAD ENTIRE CWA AT THIS TIME WITH BEST 0-6KM
SHEAR RMNG SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS MAY SEE AN ODD STRONG STORM THIS
AFTN/EVNG BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

STORMS WL LKLY PRODUCE 0.50-1.00 INCHES PER HOUR BUT WL BE FINE IF
THEY CAN KEEP MVG. IF STORMS CAN GET ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OR A LURKING BNDRY, FLOODING (PONDING AND/OR FLASH) COULD BCM AN
ISSUE. HWVR NO THREAT LOOKS IMMINENT AT THIS TIME AND WL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO.

THUNDER WL BCM LESS AFT 04Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SHOWERS EXPECTED AS
INSTABILITY WANES. VRY JUICY AIRMASS WL RMN LOCKED OVR CNY AND NEPA
TONIGHT AND HV ADDED IN AREAS OF VLY FOG ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG TO
RMNDR OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND
THE LARGE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
MOVE EAST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE MID-WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OUR PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WEAK SPURTS OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY AND DUE TO THE COMBINATIONS OF LINGERING LOW LVL
MOISTURE... WEAK WAVES... AND HEATING FROM THE SUN... SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WEAK VORTICITY MAXES WILL
TRAVEL ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. BUT... BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPR RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO
TAKE CONTROL OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUS... BY SATURDAY
EVENING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE GONE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RISE INTO THE 70S EACH
AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF STATES NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
PROVIDE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY BRING THE
AREA SOME SHOWERS.

245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE VFR...MOST TERMINALS
SHOULD BE IMPACTED AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...AND TIMING OF TSRA TEMPO GROUPS IN TAFS HONES INTO MOST
LIKELY PERIOD AS BEST AS POSSIBLE /DEFINITELY SUBJECT TO AMENDING
AS THINGS EVOLVE/. SYR-RME MAY GET MORE CONVECTION...BUT EARLIER
CONVECTION FORCED STABILIZING BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND THUS
ACTUAL CB IS LESS CERTAIN COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS. MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...AND VERY WEAK FLOW/LACK OF
MIXING TONIGHT...WILL LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY WORSE THAN THAT FOR KELM WHERE FOG WILL
SHOULD TURN DENSE. AT LEAST MVFR FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MIDDAY...YET ALSO NEW SCATTERED SHRA-
TSRA POSSIBLE. VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW WIND THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
LIGHT- VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. LIGHT SE TO S FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THROUGH FRI NGT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA FRI
AFTERNOON...THEN IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...MDP





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