Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
FXUS61 KBGM 281229
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
829 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
Lake effect showers will slowly wind down this afternoon as high
pressure moves into the region. Saturday afternoon a frontal
boundary will sink southward across the region and will bring our
next chance for showers across the region. The chance for showers
will linger through the weekend. Temperatures will remain mild
through the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
215 am...Progressive upper low current situated just north of the
forecast area over southern Ontario with surface low over eastern
ontario transferring its energy to the coast. As the system moves
east, this will continue to drag a cold front across the area
through the pre-dawn hours with winds shifting to gusty W/NW and
temps dropping back into the 30s for all areas. By morning, 850 mb
temps drop to near -6 C which will be cold enough for a bit of a
Lake response. That said, moisture will be shallow...not even
making it into dendritic zone so mainly just expecting some
scattered light rain showers and patchy drizzle overnight into
Heading into Friday afternoon, upper low pushes east into the
Atlantic with narrow ridging moving in by late day. As a result,
any rain showers diminish heading into the afternoon with some
late day sun possible across the western southern tier as well as
NE PA. Otherwise, moisture trapped beneath inversion should keep
most of the area mainly cloudy under low stratus much of the day.
Temps will be cool with highs mainly in the low to mid 40s.
Narrow ridge crests over the area Friday evening with some brief
partial clearing before it`s shunted off to the east in
progressive pattern. By the overnight, next low will be moving
east well north of the area into NE Ontario setting up a southerly
flow with increasing mid/high clouds and moderating temps. Thus,
areas across the Lake Plain will see early evening lows in the 30s
with temps nudging up overnight. Also by overnight, a few showers
will also be possible in the far north.
For Saturday, SW flow will bring milder temperatures with highs
ranging from the mid 50s east to the mid 60s west. As the low
moves from NE Ontario into Quebec a cold front will begin to
approach the area by afternoon bringing increasing clouds and some
scattered showers...mainly over central NY.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Fnt is fcst to flop thru the area on Sat and early Sun in the
zonal flow over the area. Shwrs seem likely ahd and bhd the fnt as
it passes but the better chance of rain will wait for Sun and a wv
zips ewrd along the fnt with a low dvlpg in the baroclinic zone.
This will enhance the uvm and bring shwrs, esp early Sun. Ltr Sun,
caa in the NW flow will allow shwrs to linger.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Vry ltl to chg in the xtndd pd. Next weel will feature a bldg rdg
and abv nrml aftn temps. Low late in the pd will bring cooler air
and a chance for shwrs. Only minor tweeks made for this update of
the pd...mainly for better collaboration and with a nod to the
latest Superblend run. Prvs disc conts blo.
300 PM EDT Update...
It looks like quiet weather returns to central NY and northeast
PA. Ridging over the eastern CONUS slowly starts to strengthen and
high pressure as the surface starts to build. This pattern will
keep our area dry starting Sunday night through Monday evening. A
weak shortwave will swing across the northeast Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This may bring our next chance for precip over our
area, but confidence is very low, thus kept low chance in
forecast. After this system moves through ridging aloft and high
pressure will build back into the region which will continue to
keep dry weather over NY and PA.
Temps during the forecast period will be at or around normal.
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low stratus with mainly MVFR cig conditions will continue through this
morning for central NY sites. There will also be some rain/snow
showers around which could cause brief MVFR visby
restrictions...mainly for KBGM. Heading into this afternoon, KELM
should see cigs lift to low VFR in the early afternoon while
remaining sites in central NY stay MVFR until the late afternoon /
early evening period at which time stratus will be diminishing.
Expect KAVP to stay VFR through the TAF period.
Winds will be gusty out of the NW at 10-15 gusting 20-25 knots
today with these winds diminishing this evening.
Saturday-Sunday...On and off MVFR possible in rain showers.