Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 250804
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
404 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot, muggy and a chance for showers and thunderstorms will be the
theme today. A cold front will move across the area this evening
and will eventually put an end to the chance for showers over the
region. This front will also bring drier air and quiet weather
through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM EDT Update...
Hot, muggy and a chance for showers and thunderstorms is the theme
for today. Light rain showers are moving east across portions of NY
and PA this morning due an embedded shortwave propagating across the
northeast and expect more to develop today.

There will be two different waves that will move across the region
today, one in the morning - a prefrontal wave, and one in the
afternoon- the cold front. Both are expected to generate showers and
thunderstorms today.

This morning a pre-frontal wave will push across NEPA and Cntrl NY.
This initial wave has decent dynamics with it is what is generating
a line of showers west of the great lakes. This wave will push into
W NY/PA around 12Z. Dew pts this morning are currently in the upper
50s to mid 60s and are expected to rise into the 70s by mid morning.
Temps across the region will quickly increase this morning as well
which will result in a muggy, and unstable atmosphere. 0-2km SR
inflow will range from 15-20 kts which is good for a convective
environment, however the 0-6KM Bulk shear across there region this
morning will be fairly weak around 20-25 knots. Lapse rate are also
on the low side, thus this morning do not expect any severe storms
attendant to the pre-frontal wave. The wave dynamically this morning
is more impressive than the 2nd wave that will move through
region this afternoon.

Temps will rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s this afternoon. Issued
a heat advisory for Pike Co, where heat index values are expected to
rise at and above 100 degrees.

Showers will develop over W NY/PA and push eastward into cntrl NY
and NEPA by 15-18Z. The 2nd wave will push into the region mid-
afternoon. This 2nd wave will force a cold front across the region
and this boundary will help regenerate storms over the area. The
cold front will start to move into cntrl NY around 21Z.
This front will eventually push the showers east of our region by
03Z Tuesday. The shear by late afternoon will increase to around 30-
40 knots across the region, Thus activity may be more organized this
afternoon than this morning. Currently we are under a marginal for
most of the CWA and the region under a slight risk just brushes
south of our CWA. Concerns that may inhibit severe weather are if
mid lvl lapse rates will become steep enough to support svr
levels.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM EDT Update...
High pressure will build back over the region on Tuesday and last
through Wednesday. Temps will range in the uppr 80s to low 90s
during this period with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s,
which will keep temps close to their ambient temps and slightly
more comfortable.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast models begin to diverge during this period as far as the
day to forecast specifics, especially after Thursday. However in
the big picture, the overall set up will be for lower heights and
increasing broad upper level troughiness over eastern Canada back
toward the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a series of waves look to move
west to east through the base of the trough bringing the area
increasing chances of much needed rain.

To start the period, there will be chances for scattered
showers/storms by late Thursday as a cold front moves south toward
the area. Temperatures will be quite warm ahead of this front with
highs Thursday in the 80s to near 90. We keep rain chances in the
forecast for Friday through next weekend as indications are that
the above mentioned cold front may stall in the vicinity of the
area as a series of waves ripple east along the boundary. The
temperature trend during this period should be for somewhat cooler
daytime highs, mainly in the low to mid 80s, with warmer lows due
to increasing cloud cover and moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clsd low over James Bay will swing an upr trof thru the area today
with a sfc cold front and trigger sct conv. Passage of the sfc
trof arnd or just aft midday will keep the heavier tstms just east
of the tafs sites but still a good chance that most sites will see
some thunder with brief mvfr conds psbl. Bhd the fnt, drier air
will return the a sites to vfr with lgt wly winds.


OUTLOOK...

Mon overnight to Wed night...mainly VFR.

Thu to Fri...showers and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR to MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ048.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...BJT/DGM



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