Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 222358
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
658 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY MAY BE THE DAY WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS CLOUDS AND SOME
SUNSHINE. BUT... A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST IN COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
MIXING WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
150 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BUT SURELY BREAKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH HAVE
FINALLY MANAGED TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS AND IT FEELS GREAT TO
FINALLY SEE THE SUN... EVEN IF IT ONLY LASTS FOR A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME. SADLY... IT WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS
ABOUT TO IMPACT THE REGION.

UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THE FRONT OF OF THE APPROACHING
STORM. ONE BIG FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WILL TEMPS BE COLD
ENOUGH TO CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. TEMPS ATTM ARE FAIRLY
WARM... AS IN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING... EXCEPT FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK.
WE MAY COOL A FEW DEGREES WHEN THE SUN SETS DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND WITH WET BULB EFFECT AS THE PRECIP FALLS... BUT EVEN
THEN WILL BE WARM ADVECTING.

WE DO EXPECT PRECIP TO START TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/RAIN AND MAYBE SLEET. BUT THE OTHER FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE NIGHT IS WILL TEMPS AND ROADS STAY COLD ENOUGH
LONG ENOUGH FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF TIME. ATTM CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL
BE THE CASE. THUS... WE HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT. BELIEVE IT WOULD BE MORE APPROPRIATE FOR A SPS ISSUANCE
ENVIRONMENT.

BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... EXPECT FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX. AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT MORE OF WET SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS... THEY MAY SEE MORE OF A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
THROUGH 4AM. BY 12Z TUESDAY EXPECT MOST ARES TO TRANSITION OVER TO
RAIN.

TEMPS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM EST UPDATE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS A SFC LOW/OCCLUDED FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

TUESDAY MORNING... THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL JUST START TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.
FOR THE MOST PART BY TUESDAY MORNING ALL PRECIP WILL BE RAIN. IF
THERE STILL ANY LINGERING WINTRY PRECIP FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE...
IT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN BY 15Z TUESDAY. TUESDAY
WILL HAVE FAIRLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.

WAA WILL ALSO CONTINUE PREVAIL OVR THE REGION TUES INTO WED AS WE
REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPR LVL TROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER NY AND PA. TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO RISE ON WED.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S WED
AFTERNOON... THEN RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY WED NIGHT. THE
REASON WHY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A RISE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA
WED NIGHT IS BECAUSE WE WILL HAVE A STRONG LLJ AROUND 40 TO 50
KNOTS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS INCREASE THE TEMPS IT WILL SEE A STRONG
INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
PWAT VALUES AROUND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES.

RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WHOLE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL NOT PUSH COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
AREA TILL THURS. DO NOT EXPECT WATER PROBLEMS DUE TO LOW LIQUID
RATIOS IN SNOW PACK ACROSS OVR NY AND PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND SUGGEST THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE SW-W WINDS IN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES 35-45 MPH. THERE IS
ALSO A GOOD SIGNAL SHOWING UP FOR A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
PHENOMENA MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. THIS FEATURE ALONE MAY
CAUSE CONVECTIVE WIND ACCELERATIONS AND SCATTERED DAMAGE/POWER
OUTAGES. LOOKING FOR A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FROM WEDS
NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH MAXES FOR WEDS/THURS PROBABLY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT AS STRONG WARM SECTOR SURGES INTO AREA.

OUTSIDE OF THIS FEATURE...THE TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY
WARMER SO A CHANGEOVER FROM PERIODS OF RAIN TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN A SHARP TURNOVER TO ALL SNOW. IN
FACT...A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT MAY CUT PRECIPITATION OFF FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD POOL KICK IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FEATURES SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE
MAINLY NORTH OF CENTRAL NY ON FRIDAY...THEN RIDGING AND GENERALLY
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY. BIG MODEL
DISCREPANCIES THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW UP BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
WHERE THE ECMWF BRINGS A QUICK TN VALLEY RUNNER TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
FEATURE A MUCH FLATTER SWLY FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THE
CANADIAN GGEM DEFINITELY LEANS WITH THE EURO WITH LOW PRES ON THE
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WILL BLANKET WITH LOW CHC
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE HIGH LVL OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... OTHER THAN LINGERING VFR CONDS THIS EVE AT
KSYR...KRME...KELM...AND KITH...CONDS SHOULD BE DETERIORATING WITH
TIME OVERNIGHT...OWING TO LWR CIGS...AS WELL AS PATCHY LGT PCPN.
ONCE LWR CONDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...THEY ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PD (00Z WED).

FOR THE MOST PART...MVFR/FUEL ALT REQD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IFR CIG BASES ARE ALSO FORESEEN FOR A TIME AT KAVP AND
KBGM OVERNIGHT.

AS FAR AS PTYP IS CONCERNED...A BRIEF PD OF -FZDZ COULD OCCUR...MAINLY AT
KBGM/KITH/KRME...THROUGH 06-08Z TUE. THEREAFTER...LOW-LVL TEMPS
SHOULD WARM ENUF TO SUPPORT ONLY -RA/-DZ.

LLWS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AT KAVP AND
KELM...WHERE SFC WINDS ARE THE WEAKEST...AND OVERRUN BY 30-40 KT
FLOW AT ARND 2 THSD FT AGL. DURG THE DAY TUE...SFC WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AREA-WIDE TO 8-12 KT...WITH FLOW ALSO LESSENING A BIT AT
2-3 THSD FT AGL.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO THU... MVFR LIKELY...CHANCE IFR. PERIODS OF RAIN. VERY
WINDY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRI/SAT...VFR. CHC SHRA SAT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/MLJ





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.