Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 211941
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
341 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring warm temperatures and
mostly sunny days through the weekend. Tropical storm Jose will
remain well offshore, with no impact on our region.

&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge will remain strong over the area through this
period with surface high pressure in the vicinity. Dense valley
fog is expected to form again overnight with mainly clear skies
and light winds. The fog in the Delaware basin may be more
patchy due to high clouds from Jose. Overnight lows will range
in the middle to upper 50s. Once the fog burns off Friday
morning another mostly sunny day is forecast with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Another replay for Friday night with
valley fog and lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main story in the short term will be much above average
temperatures with morning fog each day but otherwise mainly
sunny skies.

A large dome of high pressure along with a very warm air mass...850mb
temperatures around +17 to +20 deg C, around 2 standard
deviations above average...will overtake the region this weekend
and allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid to upper
80s...even close to 90 in spots for Sunday especially across the
lake plain of central NY.

Mostly clear skies at night under high pressure and calm winds will
make way for more early morning valley fog. Fog should lift and mix
out by mid morning. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s and lower
60s.
&&


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong ridging will result in continuing warm and dry weather
through at least next Tuesday with continuing highs in the 80s
and lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s. In fact, we
continue to forecast high temperatures about 1-3 degrees above
the Superblend based on 850 mb temps progged to be 18+ C and
guidance generally being too low forecasting unseasonable
warmth. The ridge will begin to break down by the Wednesday-
Thursday time frame of next week as a cold front approaches from
the north and west and Maria moves north off the mid Atlantic
coast. These features will bring the area a chance of showers
beginning next Wednesday.
&&


.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions with SCT/BKN cirrus are expected through late
evening then fog will begin developing across all terminals
except for KSYR. Dense fog with conditions near airport minimums
are expected at KELM and KITH between 06Z-14Z. At
KRME/KBGM/KAVP, conditions will be near alternate minimums
primarily between 10Z-14Z. Once the fog burns off by mid morning
VFR conditions will continue through sunset.

Northerly winds around 5 knots becoming light and variable
overnight then northerly again on Friday around 5 knots.

Outlook...

Friday night through Tuesday...VFR except for fog possible each
late night/early morning, especially at KELM but for other
terminals as well at times.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...RRM


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