Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 010804
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
404 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through
midweek under a mainly clear sky. Our next chance of rain will
come Late Thursday into Friday with the passage of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will track across eastern Canada today. New
York and Pennsylvania will be on the southern edge of this air
mass with the result being pleasantly warm and dry weather through
the day today. Dew points will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s
with high temperatures near 80. Patchy river valley fog early
today will be gone by mid-morning. Models are developing a little
instability extending from the Ohio Valley toward western NY later
today. However any large- scale forcing looks to be very minimal.
Based on this have continued our current dry forecast with pops
increasing to 10 to 15 pct later today.

High pressure drifts east toward the Canadian maritimes tonight
with a surface ridge extending southward down the east coast. This
will result in a light southeasterly return flow over our area.
Mainly dry conditions will continue with comfortable overnight
lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM Update...
Frontal system will bring showers and a chance of thunderstorms
to the region Late Thursday into Friday, but with little overall
impact.

Surface ridge will shift to the coast Thursday Morning, allowing
for a moistening southerly flow to develop ahead of an approaching
front. Precipitable water values will increase across the region
to around an inch-and-a-half. However, models are coming into
better agreement that convective parameters are better well
upstream, with 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE values /higher as usual in the
NAM/ over the Upper Ohio Valley to NW PA-Far Western NY Thursday.
Thursday afternoon-evening, a shortwave will attempt to carry the
convection into a progressively less supportive environment over
our region. Front itself is also ill-timed for convection, by
moving through mainly during Pre-dawn hours Friday morning. There
is some uncertainty as to whether new diurnally-driven convection
can get going during the day Friday just as the front exits the
region. So all told, we are expecting roughly two to three tenths
of an inch of rain on average, generally in the form of showers
and scattered non-severe thunderstorms.

Highs ahead of the front Thursday will manage mainly upper 70s-
lower 80s, followed by very mild lows in the upper 50s-lower 60s
Thursday night. Cloud cover, and weak cold air advection, on
Friday will hold highs back closer to near normal values in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4am update...
Forecast adjusted for latest model superblend guidance. Little
change overall from previous forecast, with a dry start of the
weekend transitioning to wetter times Sunday onward.

Previous discussion...
A few lingering rain showers are possible over NE PA and the
southern Catskills Friday night/Saturday morning as the upper
trough holds back across New England. However the main trend will
be drying as a broad upper ridge builds across the region and
allows for large scale subsidence into the early part of the
weekend. The pattern will shift going into the latter half of the
weekend and into early next week as a slow moving upper trough
rolls into the NE and spreads widespread rain showers through the
region. May see significant long duration rainfall amounts over a
good portion of the forecast area during this time.

Temperatures through the weekend will take a gradual downward turn
with highs on Saturday starting out in the 70s and lower 80s...but
into the lower to mid 70s by Monday. Overnight lows in the 60s will
fall into the 50s by the beginning of next week...with noticeably
drier air as well.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect patchy fog to develop in the river valleys of central new
york and northern pa late tonight otherwise mainly clear
conditions expected into wednesday morning with light winds.
scattered clouds will develop at around 5 kft wednesday afternoon
with winds from the southeast at less than 10 kts.

OUTLOOK...

Wed ngt...VFR.

Thursday-Friday...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms; better chances will be Thursday Night-Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Restrictions likely with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...BJT/MDP
AVIATION...MSE



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