Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 261418
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
918 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO CSRA. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STILL EXPECTED END LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...AND DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE CSRA LATE THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SLOWLY BECOMING VFR ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE CSRA AROUND 9
AM...THEN THE MIDLANDS BETWEEN 11 AM UNTIL 1 PM AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY
NEAR CAPE FEAR AND WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z. HOWEVER
...STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. THE REAL
CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND
30 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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