Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 222350
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
749 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK RESULTING IN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT
IN UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CURRENT POSITION FROM THE CENTRAL SC COAST INTO SOUTHERN GA.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THROUGH THE INLAND COASTAL
AREAS AND CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH CHANCES
RAPIDLY LOWERING WESTWARD AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRANSFORMS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCE
POPS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL DIG A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WHICH CUTS OFF AND REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW HAVE A NW/SE GRADIENT IN
THE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SE CWA IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.
LOWER POPS TO THE NW IN THE 10-20 PCT RANGE. LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PRECIP IS DRIER AIR ALOFT. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS PARKED TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE. ALOFT THE WESTERLIES LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH AND A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS OVER THE SE US. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE. RESULT IS POPS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH INCREASED CLOUDS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
AND MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
AGS/DNL/OGB TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES FROM TIME
TO TIME THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA...PRODUCING INSTABILITY...LIFT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD
ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




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