Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 291838
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
238 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH WITH
A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR RETURNS SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS BERKELEY COUNTY SC...IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARENDON INTO SOUTHERN
ORANGEBURG COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CAP A BIT STRONGER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. WILL ADD
SLIGHT POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. ANY PRECIP WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY BY SUNSET.

GOING FORECAST OF LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS GOOD. NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY...INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG TRIGGER OR DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHEAR
APART ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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