Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 300328
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1128 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND CUTOFF LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH/DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. DEW POINTS GENERALLY
GREATER THAN 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE
GA AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND LOWCOUNTRY. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER BUT STILL LIFTING UPPER
ENERGY NE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE WITH IT INTO THE REGION FROM
THE S/SW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL STILL
TRY TO HANG TOUGH TO THE NORTH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH POPS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS...FAVORING BEST POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREA SUNDAY. ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO
THE SE BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST AS UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE
ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL. 88D
REGIONAL COMPOSITE HAS SHOWN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONFINED ALONG THE
COAST...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACROSS SRN GA/FL. EXPECT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY
BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR OGB/AGS/DNL FROM 18Z-19Z THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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