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000
FXUS62 KCAE 231437
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE LIFTED AND ONLY SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS REMAIN. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES INT HE LOWER/MIDDLE 70 AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CUT
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE FROM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG AND SOME STRATUS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT
AT/NEAR THE TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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