Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 301145
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
736 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE PEE
DEE REGION SOUTHWEST TO NEAR COLUMBIA AND THEN TO THE AUGUSTA
AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATED SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER WITH A COOLER START TO THE DAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT TONIGHT DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 6000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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