Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 221901
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
301 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
A dry and seasonably cool air mass will remain over the area
through Sunday. The air mass will modify Monday. Another cold
front will move through the area Monday evening with a re-
enforcing shot of cool air through Midweek. Slight chance of
showers late week as a fast moving system moves through the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold advection pattern over the area this afternoon will diminish
by this evening. At the surface...high pressure across the Lower
Ms Valley/Tn Valley will push eastward this afternoon and will be
centered over AL/GA by morning. Looks like radiational conditions
will be improving overnight and expect temperatures to fall near a
consensus of the guidance by morning. Many areas across the CWA
will see morning low temperatures in the upper 30s. Radiational
scheme for Columbia indicates a low of 38 and for Augusta a low of
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough over New England will be moving northeast while
a ridge builds over the Midwest and Gulf coast states. The
Carolinas and Georgia will remain in dry northwest flow aloft.
Neutral temperature advection Sunday along with downslope flow
should result in warming temperatures/modification of air mass.
Guidance temperatures appear on track with maximum temperatures
in the lower 70s...near seasonable normals. Overnight temperatures
Sunday night should be warmer than tonight due to a relatively
strong low level jet. Another weak cold front will approach the
region late Monday...so pre-frontal downslope flow
expected/weak warm advection. Guidance mild with maximum
temperatures around 80. Front will come through the area dry and
winds shift to northeast in the evening. Cooler air mass from the
Upper Midwest will be building southeast behind the front.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models are in relatively good agreement through Wednesday showing
an upper ridge over the center of the country with northwesterly
flow aloft over the southeastern states. A dry reinforcing cold
front will move through the forecast area on Monday with high
pressure building into the area from the north on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The 00Z ECMWF and GFS show significant differences late
Wednesday through the end of the period. The 00Z GFS shows a closed
upper low over the upper Midwest digging toward the southeastern
states whereas the 00Z ECMWF shows a progressive upper trough.
Given model differences, maintained pops just below 15 for
Thursday as confidence is low. Above normal high temperatures
expected on Monday ahead of the front near 80 degrees. Below
normal highs behind the front for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures expected to moderate toward the end of the period
with near normal highs.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A dry airmass
will continue to push into the region through the period. It will
continue to be a little breezy across the cwa this afternoon with
northwest winds near 10 knots with gusts around 15 knots. Model
time sections indicate clear skies will continue tonight and with
a dry airmass in place fog is not expected. Model time sections
indicate a low level jet around 20 knots during the evening but
diminishes by midnight. Expect most taf sites to have calm winds
by morning. On Sunday...expect light and variable winds as surface
high pressure is over the area.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.