Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 282317
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
717 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will remain across the lower lakes and
Ohio Valley through the weekend. Weak waves of low pressure will
ride along the front helping to ignite some showers and
thunderstorms. This system will finally move east Monday with high
pressure building over the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Surface low just NW of Erie Pa with a weak cold front extending SW
south of lakeshore counties to near Findlay. Front expected to sag
slowly south through the evening. Left low chance pops along and
south of the front through this evening.

Original discussion...
Shallow and nearly stationary frontal boundary will likely remain
inactive tonight. Thick cirrus shield has kept the instability in
check. Area is at 1000 J/kg or less. One shortwave will take the
steadier rain from southeast OH into southwest PA. We will only
have a stray shower or thunderstorm in our county warning area
tonight. But storm motions will be very slow so with 1.5 inch
precipitable water...heavy rain will be possible. Guidance lows
are clustered close and will go right along with them in the
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A broad trough will remain across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio
Valley through the weekend. A surface frontal boundary will remain
nearly stationary across the area as well. Minor waves will move
through the flow and help to initiate shower/thunderstorm
development. For most...if not all of the weekend...storm motions
will remain slow. Any storm that develops will have the potential
for heavy rainfall. The convective allowing ensembles show some
development across the area for tomorrow and will go with POPS
between 30 and 50 percent. Saturday a slightly more developed wave
will cross Ohio and will go a little higher with the precip
chances. Lingering chances remain into Sunday...especially across
the east. There is not the support for organized severe storms.
Temperatures will be seasonable...and under the 90 degree mark.
Humidity levels will be up.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level trough will take its time to clear the county
warning area. However it looks as if the main lift will finally move
east of the region by Monday. High pressure will build into the
region by Monday night then persist into Tuesday night. The high
should be nudged eastward by Wednesday with low chances of
thunderstorms developing...mainly across the west.

Temperatures in the long term should be near to slightly above
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Isolated showers leftover from the afternoon near KTOL, KMFD and
KFDY this evening however conditions at terminals remain VFR.
Expecting activity to continue to diminish overnight however that
said, the area remains moist and unstable so little preventing
isolated development anywhere overnight. With dew points in the
mid and upper 60s will allow for fog to develop after 06z-08z away
from the lake. Will bring in visibilities down to MVFR with IFR
possible at KCAK KMFD and KYNG. Friday will continue generally
moist and unstable in the afternoon with scattered afternoon
thunderstorms. Will have VFR conditions but will carry VCTS most
places after 17-18z.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in sct thunderstorms Friday night through
Sunday. Areas of morning fog possible each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak cold front south of Lake Erie will linger and the north and
northeast winds will persist into the weekend. The strongest
winds look like they will occur Friday into Saturday with waves
building to at least 2 to 3 feet for the western half of the lake.
Do not think we will get to a small craft advisory but it is
something to watch over the next 48 hours.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...DJB/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Jamison/TK
MARINE...Mullen



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