Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 260532

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
132 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

Low pressure over eastern OH will move off to the ne thru Fri to
allow a weak ridge of high pressure to push across the region Friday
then weaken Saturday. Low pressure will develop over the Great Lakes
Sunday and hang around the eastern part of the lakes through


Little change in the overall pattern the last few hours as band
of showers continues to rotate slowly east. Will keep a chance
of showers all areas with the least being in the west and
greatest in the central portions of the forecast area where the
band persists. Surface low pressure appears to be developing
along the DELMARVA coast at this time with another center of
circulation over western Pennsylvania. The coastal low pressure
system will gradually take over during the night. This should
help pull some of the precipitation away from the area. As
mentioned earlier, temperatures are not moving much through the


As energy from the upper low continues to shift off to the east the
lingering rain in the east should taper off Fri to provide a brief
period of dry conditions going into early Fri night.

The models continue to differ on how well convection from a
developing system to the west will hold together and spread across
the cwa Fri night into Sat morning. Will raise forecast pops more
but not to MAV guidance levels.

As the next upper low digs se into the lakes Sat night and Sun, it
will provide forcing for the next round of shra and possible tsra to
spread ene across the cwa Sat night and Sun. The threat for flooding
will continue to slowly increase as rounds of rain occur.

Temps should be near normal Sat and Sun but cloud coverage should be
considerable making it feel cooler.


Series of short waves progged to rotate through the deepening trough
the first half of next week. It may be difficult to pin down
specific details very far in advance. The cold front should be east
of the area Monday and I suspect there may be enough subsidence to
keep new shower development in check. Will have a small chance (20-
35 pop) for showers.

The next short wave and surface trough/front should rotate across
the area on Tuesday. Weak high pressure is progged to build across
the Ohio Valley on Wednesday but with the trough aloft, will keep a
chance of showers in the forecast. High pressure should be more
established by Thursday.

Temperatures should drop through the first half of the week as weak
cold advection persists. 850 mb temperatures will start out about
+10C Monday and be down to about +5C by Wednesday. Forecast
temperatures will be near normal Monday then below normal Tuesday
through Thursday.


.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Not much change is expected in conditions overnight with mainly
IFR weather over the eastern 2/3 of the area and MVFR weather in
the west. Drier air will begin to move in from the west after
daybreak with the western TAF sites likely becoming VFR by late
morning. Further east cigs should climb to MVFR this morning
but VFR conditions will not return till well into the
afternoon. Patchy drizzle and light rain is also expected the
next several hours in the east. W to NW around 10 knots will

OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR likely at times over the weekend.


Low pressure will slowly move east of Lake Erie tonight and winds
will come around from the west northwest tonight, then back to the
southwest on Friday. The lake will get a bit choppy on the east half
but will likely remain below small craft advisory criteria on

Weak low pressure will cross the lower Great Lakes on Saturday with
rather light winds but the direction will back around the dial. A
stronger cold front will cross the lake on Sunday and mariners will
have to watch for stronger thunderstorms. Winds should come around
from the west southwest behind the front Sunday night into Monday.




NEAR TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.