Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 251146
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
746 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY BRINGING A SOUTH FLOW AND WARMER AIR BACK
TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND HOURLY SKY COVER FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
NICE JET STREAKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL DIVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS NW OHIO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND NE
OH/NW PA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE JET AND WITH NO GULF INFLOW NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH I SUPPOSE SOMEONE COULD SEE A DROP OR TWO. WE HAVE
BEEN CARRYING A "SLIGHT CHANCE" AROUND ERIE PA AND I WILL JUST CALL
IT "SPRINKLES". THE AIR MASS IS TOO WARM FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
CURRENTLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OUT THERE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE MAJORITY OF CLOUDS ARE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING ACROSS NW
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON REACHING NE OH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE VARIETY OF CLOUDS I SUSPECT THAT TEMPS WILL GET AS WARM AS
THEY CAN GIVEN THE MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE...PROBABLY MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MOST. THE BREEZE...15
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY...WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CHILLY
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN THE SHADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
PROBABLY ONLY IN THE SNOWBELT AND PERHAPS MAINLY ACROSS NW PA. A
WEAK TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH THE AIR MASS BEING DRY WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA AROUND 10 PERCENT. SUNNY ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY
AND SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

LOTS OF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BY MONDAY. A BATCH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM ADVECTION INCREASES BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
SOME DECENT SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE THE WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MAY
LINGER. WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NW OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL
OH...PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

THE MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST ...BARELY GETTING THE FRONT
TO I-71 BY EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ALL OUT SLOW AND I
THINK IT IS BETTER TO AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NE OH/NW PA IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND I SUPPOSE THERE IS A CHANCE CONSIDERING
THE DECENT JET ENERGY...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL
KEEP IT WARM TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGER UPPER LOW CURLS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC.
THIS SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A DRY SLOT WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH JUST A SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER SO HAVE CONFINED POPS TO JUST AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A HEALTHY CU FIELD FILLS IN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO BACK AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO
BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.

A FAIRLY ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL PUSH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT VARY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S AND THESE MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED IF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. DID
INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT EVEN
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH COULD BRING THE
COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW IT
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE RIDGE ALREADY BUILDING
OVERHEAD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS A
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO 3500-4500
FEET INITIALLY...WITH SOME SITES DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR A
COUPLE HOUR WINDOW. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KNOTS...SHIFTING TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF A STRAY SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER AT ERI THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS
THEN RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT AFTER 11
AM FOR NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF AVON WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 5 TO 7
FEET BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO BACK
TO THE ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO TOLEDO. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE EAST END OF THE LAKE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
SUNDAY EVENING WHEN WINDS AND WAVES FINALLY DECREASE ENOUGH WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






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