Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 241352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
952 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

High pressure will be in control across the area through
tonight. The region will be sandwiched between two areas of low
pressure, one to the west and one to the east, Tuesday through
Wednesday. Low pressure will eventually track into the Great
Lakes Thursday bringing a cold front through the area.


Minor adjustments to hourly temperatures with this update,
otherwise no changes to the forecast.

Original Discussion...
Clear skies will continue through today with temperatures
warming up into the 70s most areas, except along the lakeshore.
East to northeast winds along the lake shore will keep
temperatures here cooler. Winds will shift around to the
southeast this evening into tonight and stay that way through
Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer
than today with a partly cloudy sky. Northwest Pennsylvania and
extreme eastern Ohio could see a shower or two Tuesday morning
into early Tuesday afternoon as a low passes well off to the
east. Expect cloudier conditions in these areas.


Dry conditions are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday
night as high pressure dominates. Low temperatures Tuesday night
will fall into the lower and middle 50s, with afternoon high
temperatures on Wednesday reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Lows Wednesday night will only fall into the upper 50s and lower

An area of low pressure will cut across the Great Lakes
Thursday. This will bring an associated cold front through the
area sometime Thursday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms.
The slower trend with the timing of the cold front continues,
so have continued to trim back the onset of precipitation.
Can`t rule out a stronger storm Thursday, especially if the
timing of the front slows down any further.


Models are struggling with the development of a large upper level
trough that will deepen over the southern Rockies for the end of the
week into the weekend. Hard to have much confidence in the timing
since many times these systems are ejected eastward across the
Plains way too fast. For now will go with some better chances of
showers/thunderstorms as a warm front lifts across the region Friday
night into Saturday. Thunderstorms would then be
isolated/scattered in nature on Sunday until the cold front
arrives on Monday. However keep in mind that this timing may be way
too early for the thunderstorms.

Warmer each day of the long term. Friday will see highs in the 60s
to around 70. Saturday warming into the 70s. All locations should be
into the warm sector on Sunday with most into the 80s.


.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Upper level low pressure over the southeastern US will
eventually start to move up the East Coast of the US tonight.
This will help to spread some cloud cover toward the region but
it will be at the middle and high levels. So VFR conditions are
expected into tonight.

Winds will be light and variable through sunset but should
increase from the east. Closer to the lakeshore winds will turn
a bit more to the northeast. Winds will likely become gusty
during the afternoon and may reach 20 to 25 knots. Strongest
near the lakeshore.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in advance of a cold front Thursday
and then with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into
early Friday morning.


Low pressure over the southeastern US and high pressure ridging
toward the lake from northern Ontario will help to increase
northeasterly winds today. It will take until early afternoon to get
the winds up to 15 to 20 knots with waves building through the
afternoon. There is concern that waves may build to close to small
craft conditions. However at this time the best forecast seems to be
2 to 4 feet this afternoon with later shifts adjusting if needed.

The next area of low pressure should move into the western Great
Lakes on Wednesday with a warm front crossing the lake. Winds should
then shift to the south and southwest until the cold front passes
Thursday night. Late Thursday night into Friday morning winds may
increase enough in the wake of the front to approach small craft




NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Mottice
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...Mullen
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