Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 220134
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
934 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016
Low pressure along the mid-Atlantic will merge with another low
tracking up the east coast and continue north to New
England on Saturday. The low drift into Quebec on Sunday with a
ridge building into the Ohio Valley. A clipper system will slide
through the Eastern Great Lakes on Sunday night, pulling another
cold front south behind it.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As expected the coverage of the showers diminished after sunset.
Already starting to see a Lake Huron fetch get established and
expect more showers to move into NE OH and NW PA tonight. The
brunt of the showers should be over Lake...Geauga and Ashtabula
Counties overnight. Precip chances will stretch west to near I-71.
West of that line some decrease in cloudiness is possible
overnight especially as get close to Toledo and Findlay. Will
leave frost mentioned. No changes to temps.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect rain showers, particularly extending from downwind of
Lake Huron will continue in northeast Ohio on Saturday morning,
shifting more towards northwest Pennsylvania by early afternoon.
Elsewhere, skies that have cleared out are expected to cu back up as
moisture off of Lake Michigan spreads into western Ohio.
Temperatures will be cool with highs ranging from the lower 50s in
the west to upper 40s in the east.
High pressure will build over the Ohio Valley on Saturday night. Low
level warm advection ramps up on the north side of the high as the
flow backs and expect to see some isentropic ascent clouds develop.
Did raise mins by a degree or two on Saturday night but this is
dependent on clouds filling in. A clipper system will slide east
across Lake Erie on Sunday night, pulling a cold front south behind
it on Monday. Will continue with scattered showers in the east
behind the front.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Marginally enough moisture may band across the north part of the cwa
for a small threat of shra tue and tue night. The next upper trough
will work east across the area wed into fri although there are model
differences starting to develop by friday. Good chances for shra
seem in order by later wed into thu night then become more
questionable for friday. Below normal temps on tuesday should
moderate to be near normal wed thru fri.
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Low pressure is centered near Long Island and high pressure is
building into the area from the west. Moist northerly flow
between these two systems is across Northern Ohio and NWRN PA.
CIGS are MVFR from roughly KCLE east with VFR CIGS to the west.
With cool air aloft and low level moisture in place believe CIGS
will remain MVFR through the night and into the morning east of
KCLE. To the west allowed VFR CIGS to break by 10z but believe bkn
cigs will return mid/late morning. Northerly winds have been
gusty with KCLE and KCAK the highest peaking around 30 knots.
Expect the trend to be down through the late evening but still
kept winds gusting to near 20 knots through the overnight.
OUTLOOK...Northeast OH/northwest PA will have Non VFR possible
through Sunday morning and again late Sunday night into Monday.
North to NW winds should maintain sca conditions well into sunday
then some decrease will occur briefly until a reinforcing cold front
crosses the lake and winds pick back up sunday night thru monday.
High pressure moves over the lake by tuesday to calm the winds then
east winds set up for tue night and look to increase to about 10 to
20 knots on wednesday as a low approaches from the west.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ143>149.