Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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630
FXUS61 KCLE 142333
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
633 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.  A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...BOOSTED POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AS WARM ADVECTION SNOW
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL AIR IS DRY ACROSS THE AREA BUT
EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP.

ORIGINAL...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEING TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AFTER SUNSET. THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
LOW INDICATING ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS AROUND 2
INCHES. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MIDNIGHT TO 6AM. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND GRADUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT MOVING INTO THE 20S BY DAY BREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLICATED SHORT TERM PATTERN. SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SNOW FROM THE
WARM FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE CONCERN IS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT WILL BE PROGRESSING NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM TRYING TO RESOLVE WHETHER THE STORM WILL BE WEST OR EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THE 12Z MODELS TODAY ARE TRENDING TO THE WEST.
THE NAM IS THE FURTHEST EAST AND THE DRIEST WHILE THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF HAVE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING FAST BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF HAVE THE STORM STRENGTHENING MONDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 850MB LOW AT 06Z TUE. THE
MODELS ARE GENERATING 0.50 TO 0.75 LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER NW PA.
THE ECMWF IS WETTER AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS. WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
6 TO 8 INCHES FOR NW PA WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE OHIO COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT. BASED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE I WILL ISSUE A
WATCH FOR NW PA AND ADVISORIES FOR THE OHIO COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THAN THE ECMWF. I HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
NW PA BUT BELIEVE ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY BY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET NUDGED EASTWARD QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT IF MOISTURE
LEVELS CAN RECOVER SOON ENOUGH. IF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION CAN
OCCUR IT WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S EAST
TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. COOLER ON SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOVED UP TIMING IN THE WEST AS SNOW HAS ALREADY MADE IT
TO FDY. ACROSS THE EAST THOUGH LEFT SIMILAR TIMING AS PREVIOUS TAF
PACKAGE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND WE NEED TO AWAIT
THE BETTER LIFT WITH THE SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE FROM NEAR CHICAGO
TO ARRIVE. STILL LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF 1-2SM -SN...WITH GENERALLY
MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER SNOW EXITS FAIRLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AREA
IS LEFT WITH BORDERLINE IFR CEILINGS. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE
OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OUT. THIS
WOULD BE ISOLATED TO THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS. EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY 00Z TUE AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BE ON DOORSTEP OF CAK/YNG. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SNOW...MAINLY THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION. NON VFR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. NON VFR LINGERS ACROSS FAR
NE OH/NW PA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NON VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
10 TO 20 KNOTS. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS
INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL VARY IN DIRECTION UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR OHZ014-023-033-089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...MULLEN



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