Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 260926
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
530 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
High pressure to our east will build back west toward the area today
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A weak short wave now over Indiana will move over ohio this
morning. At this time not a lot going on with the system to our
west however radar does show showers and thunderstorms to our
northwest over srn lower MI. Showers also into nwrn pa but expect
them to drift northeast of the area early. Other concern is that
the HRRR depicted showers developing and moving into the western
counties early this morning before dissipating. Will bring in a
low chance pop to the west this morning. For the afternoon will
have chance pops most places which is undercutting the mav numbers
and is closer to the met at least in the east. Highs will again be
around 80-83 most places.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
No real change in short term expectations with building heights
and increasing moisture through Saturday. Moisture remains for
Sunday as heights begins to drop off just a bit as a short wave
moves into the central plains. Not a lot of forcing tonight
through Saturday. Current model runs suggest a bit more dynamics
coming into play Saturday night and Sunday as an upper trough
approaches from the west and the upper high shifts east over New
england. For now will go with diurnal trends having chance pops
for the afternoon and evening Friday and Saturday. Will continue
with chance pops saturday night and Sunday but pops may need to
be raised if short wave continues to focus energy across the area.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term forecast continues to show a strong upper level ridge
over the eastern third of the United States. This will promote high
pressure over the East Coast, which will in turn give our area warm,
moist southerly flow in the low levels. Temperatures for the
forecast period will be about 5 to 10 degrees above average hovering
around the 80 degree mark, certainly giving the feeling of summer as
we enter the month of June. However, this warm, moist airmass will
allow for a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon with diurnally driven convection and perhaps a weak
shortwave or two going over the upper level ridge. Do note, however,
that no day will be a complete washout as convection would be
isolated/scattered in nature and the possibility of a dry day early
next week is certainly possible. Cloud cover will generally vary
throughout the forecast period as it will be dependent on how much
moisture gets into the region and if any convection develops.
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A trough of low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes is
supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms across lower
Michigan and has initiated some pop-up showers across northern
Indiana/NW Ohio and another cluster in far NE Ohio/NW
Pennsylvania, which will impact KERI right at 2 AM. General
thinking is that the large area of convection will miss to the
north of all TAF sites and only the pop-up type showers have any
chance of impacting any TAF site. However, given the nature of
these pop-up showers, any confidence in timing and coverage is
low. Therefore, continued with a vicinity shower for all sites for
a brief period and removed any mention of thunder. Model guidance
is pointing to MVFR ceilings and visibilities around daybreak, but
they have all pointed to wet conditions overnight tonight. Given
that there is good chance that any particular TAF site will remain dry,
kept all of the TAFs VFR, but if any rain develops over a site,
will certainly need to monitor for any MVFR fog or stratus.
Southerly winds will continue through the period reaching 10
knots at times.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra as well as early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday.
Lake Erie remains quiet as high pressure begins moving in from the
southeast. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and southerly
through Memorial Day with the exception of a brief period of 10 to
15 knot winds early Friday, which will then likely be followed by a
lake breeze Friday afternoon. Waves will be 2 feet or less and no
small craft advisories are expected through the holiday weekend.