Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 011413
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1013 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016
Low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will lift north into
lower Michigan by Sunday then shift east of the forecast area on
Monday. A large area of high pressure will move across the Great
Lakes Monday and move off the New England Coast late Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Made minor changes to the afternoon forecast. Upper low near the
Ohio Indiana border is expected to drift northward into Michigan
this evening. The best area for upward vertical motion is near
the TOL area where instability is greatest. Some breaks are
present in the cloud cover over north central Ohio but this will
fill in as diurnal heating continues. Still expect development of
scattered showers with a few thunderstorms mainly over the western
third of the CWA this afternoon and over the region tonight.
Expect generally dry conditions through about 1-2 pm before
redevelopment begins. Timing and coverage of scattered tonight is
difficult to discern.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low will finally start to pull off on Sunday but it will
take till midday Monday before it`s impact on the local area is
finally over. More showers are expected tonight with perhaps the
greatest coverage of the entire three day event. Have bumped
precip chances up and would have liked to have gone higher but had
to match up with neighboring offices. By Sunday afternoon most of
the showers will be over the northeast half of the area and by
late Sunday night only some scattered showers are expected in the
far east. Skies will gradually clear in the subsidence behind the
upper low. Temps Sunday will continue on the cool side with
seasonable readings on Monday. Tuesday is shaping up to be a nice
day for early October with abundant sunshine and readings in the
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models differ some on how fast next upper trough can push ridge off
to the east and thus how fast surface cold front can arrive with
next chance for rain. Generally sticking with superblend with
increasing pops for thu into thu night then lingering chance on fri.
Above normal temps for wed and thu should drop close to normal by
fri as cooler air starts to arrive.
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Upper and surface low in srn indiana will be slowly lifting north
then northeast thru 12z sunday causing east winds of 5 to 15 knots
to turn toward the south then sw. Mix of conditions ranging from vfr
to ifr should improve to mostly vfr by early to mid afternoon as
daytime heating occurs. Sct shra with isold tsra will
continue...tending to be most numerous in the afternoon and early
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in showers and low ceilings at times into
Weakening low lifting north thru indiana into michigan will allow
winds to continue to diminish some this morning while veering toward
the south then sw today into tonight. As the low moves off to the
east sunday night into monday...winds veer to west then nw while
speeds generally stay 10 knots or less. High pressure builds in from
the north monday causing winds to continue to veer to the ne late
monday into monday night then more to the east for tue and wed as
the high shifts east of the lakes.
With the upper low creating a good temp differential on sunday there
is a potential for waterspouts to occur so this may need to be added
to forecast at some point over the next 24 hours.