Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230415
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1115 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Minor adjustments made to overnight lows. Need to monitor NW for
clouds over SE MB moving into NW zones late overnight period by 4
AM arrival looks good for now...no changes to sky from CONSSHORT
solution needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Region will remain in fairly sharp cyclonic mid level flow
through the short term. A respectable baroclinic zone will set up
across the region from ne-sw. After a few spotty showers over the
ne early this evening, cu field should dissipate before the next
area of mid level clouds ahead of next impulse moves into the
region later this evening. With thermal gradient, minimum
temperatures should range from the lower 40s in the ne to around
50 in the west.

Impulse over central AB will propagate se into the region
tomorrow. Model guidance in pretty good agreement in bringing rain
chances into the ne mid morning spreading se during the day. Upped
pops a bit over the ne as a result. Marginal convective parameters
however sufficient shear and cold pool may interact enough with
baroclinic zone for isold T. Coolest temperatures in the mid/upper
60s over the ne to mid 70s in the west with warmer column and less
cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

(Wed night - Fri)

Thu will feature dry easterly flow around a Manitoba/western Ontario
high with resulting sunny and seasonally cool temps.  By Fri the
high migrates to the east, covering a tract from northern Ontario
south through the Upper Midwest. Return southerly flow comes to the
Northern Plains with more robust 15 kt sfc winds.

(Sat through Tue)

Models are in decent agreement with increasing precipitation chances
Fri night into Sat. ECMWF is more progressive and MN centric than
the GFS. Primary sfc low projected to slowly track from SD to MN by
Sun afternoon almost coincident with upper low by this time.
Precipitation chances increase overnight Fri through Sat with the
bulk of any pcpn lingering over MN side come Sun. Mon and Tue look
to be dry with seasonal highs in the mid and upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

VFR. Light winds becoming SE tomorrow with a chance for some
patchy fog NE of TVF and N of BJI. An upper wave moves across N
Cntrl MN tomorrow and will bring a chance for shra or an isold
storm to areas just north and east of BJI/TVF. Too far out to pin
down for TAF sites, but activity should begin in the 02Z to 06Z
timeframe.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Speicher



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