Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
401 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

The main forecast challenge will be fog/stratus development and
how it affects the other forecast elements. Fog/stratus currently
extends across the southern FA, mainly south of a line from Valley
City to Fargo Moorhead to Park Rapids. There are some spots in
this area that have not seen the fog yet, but they appear to be
filling in. This area of fog has been lifting northward, so the
dense fog advisory area may have to be expanded northward even
more yet. What happens with this area of fog/stratus by morning
will then play into the forecast for the rest of the day and
tonight. Areas that hold the fog/stratus longer will stay cooler
today. Have gone with the idea that areas in the current dense fog
advisory will keep the fog through most of the morning. The Devils
Lake region should see the most sun today, while other areas see
more clouds. Guidance keeps the fog/stratus over the FA tonight,
but it should again be thicker east of the Devils Lake region.
Models continue to show the potential for some light drizzle or
freezing drizzle, so did keep that mention too. The exact pcpn
type will depend on road temps or treated versus non treated

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Models show a little steadier pcpn arriving over eastern and NE
areas of the FA Friday into Saturday, as the anticipated piece of
500mb energy lifts northward. Seems like there is one first surge
of moisture Friday into Friday night, with a second one Saturday
into Saturday night. Overall, surface winds look fairly low
throughout, so the fog and stratus questions continue. With the
mild temps, pcpn type will also stay in question.

For Sunday through Wednesday...Split flow aloft remains over
North America with the northern stream over northern Canada and
the southern stream over the southern states. Long wave ridge
forecast to build over western North America in the southern
stream late in the period. Downstream long wave trough develops
over the Northern Plains.

The ECMWF has been trending faster and farther north while the GFS
has been trending faster and farther east. Will blend the models.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Fog forming in central MN at 05z will likely spread north. How far
north is in question...but seems to be increasing chance of fog
into Bemidji and areas south and perhaps into Fargo but confidence
lower there. Will need to monitor other sites but for now kept fog
out and went with the idea of low clouds spreading north over the
area late aftn/evening. So expected variable flight categories to
start Thursday but likely end up IFR in most areas Thu evening.


ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ049-052-

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ024-



LONG TERM...Godon/Hoppes
AVIATION...Riddle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.